Does anyone have an idea as to what a likely salary will end up being? I have no idea how to even gauge this.

http://baseball.suite101.com/article.cfm/h...bitration_works

The highest amount ever for a first year arbitration player was $10 million for Ryan Howard. Unless D1 finishes the season by breaking Herschiser's scoreless innings record, he's not likely to beat that.

 

The Sox are very likely to sign a contract of some sort with D1 before the actual arbitration hearing, because that's how they always do it, and there were only 3 arbitration hearings in all of MLB last year.

 

Here's a list of last year's Arbitration numbers, what each side submitted, and the final signed contract. For a first year guy, I think a plausible comparison might be Papelbon, who got upwards of $6 million in his first arbitration year. Joe Saunders was a first year arbitration starting LHP last year, and he wound up at $3.7 million, and he's no where near D1's caliber right now.

 

I could see anywhere in the range from $5-$8 million being plausible and I think they'll wind up somewhere around $7.

http://baseball.suite101.com/article.cfm/h...bitration_works

 

Am I missing something? I'm seeing that the club may not offer less than 80%/70% but I can't figure out if there's a benchmark for what the player asks for.

The highest amount ever for a first year arbitration player was $10 million for Ryan Howard. Unless D1 finishes the season by breaking Herschiser's scoreless innings record, he's not likely to beat that.

 

The Sox are very likely to sign a contract of some sort with D1 before the actual arbitration hearing, because that's how they always do it, and there were only 3 arbitration hearings in all of MLB last year.

 

Here's a list of last year's Arbitration numbers, what each side submitted, and the final signed contract. For a first year guy, I think a plausible comparison might be Papelbon, who got upwards of $6 million in his first arbitration year. Joe Saunders was a first year arbitration starting LHP last year, and he wound up at $3.7 million, and he's no where near D1's caliber right now.

 

I could see anywhere in the range from $5-$8 million being plausible and I think they'll wind up somewhere around $7.

 

Thanks. That makes sense.

The Sox go out of their way to avoid going through the arbitration process these days. I imagine that they'll agree to a one-year deal in the $7-8M range this winter.

 

Am I missing something? I'm seeing that the club may not offer less than 80%/70% but I can't figure out if there's a benchmark for what the player asks for.

 

There isn't. They could ask for a gazillion dollars if they wanted to.

What are Jon Lester's contract numbers again?

 

I think that's probably the closest to an accurate comparison...although the very SLIGHT edge probably goes to Lester, but not by much.

 

 

What are Jon Lester's contract numbers again?

 

I think that's probably the closest to an accurate comparison...although the very SLIGHT edge probably goes to Lester, but not by much.

 

Anyone else notice how BIG Lester has become this season? I mean, guys fill out in their 20's, and maybe the cancer kept him thinner than he would've been, but he looks quite "different" from before.

 

Maybe the "PEDs in the water cooler" theory that I hold regarding the BoSox has some legs after all...

My buddy and I talk about this often. We need to pay the kid. Lock him up.

11:$5.75M, 12:$7.625M, 13:$11.625M, 14:$13M club option ($0.25M buyout)

LESTER's deal

 

I wouldn't be surprised at all if the White Sox offered him something similar to get to year 7 and 8.

 

Although I think they're going to have to pay him $7.5 million next year, $11.5 million in 2012 and then the $13 million club option to buy out one year of free agency.

 

Will he go for it, is the question? And if he turns down this offer (as he did before, the one Gavin Floyd accepted)...how long would KW wait to deal him? Probably this offseason or in July 2011.

11:$5.75M, 12:$7.625M, 13:$11.625M, 14:$13M club option ($0.25M buyout)

LESTER's deal

 

I wouldn't be surprised at all if the White Sox offered him something similar to get to year 7 and 8.

 

Although I think they're going to have to pay him $7.5 million next year, $11.5 million in 2012 and then the $13 million club option to buy out one year of free agency.

 

Will he go for it, is the question? And if he turns down this offer (as he did before, the one Gavin Floyd accepted)...how long would KW wait to deal him? Probably this offseason or in July 2011.

 

How much do you think the Marlins regret not dealing Miggy for Danks?

Hope they sign him to along term deal. Pitching is the name of the game and we have traded away most of our pitching prispects so hopefully we keep those we have on the roster and keep our staff intact

Will he go for it, is the question? And if he turns down this offer (as he did before, the one Gavin Floyd accepted)...how long would KW wait to deal him? Probably this offseason or in July 2011.

 

Huh? We're going to deal him despite controlling him for 3 more years?

Huh? We're going to deal him despite controlling him for 3 more years?

We only control him through the end of the 2012 season.

We only control him through the end of the 2012 season.

 

 

They need to be working on that there deal then right there and right now

They need to be working on that there deal then right there and right now

If D1 was interested in a long-term deal at a reasonable value for the team, I have a ton of confidence that it'd be done already. I think he's pitching his arbitration years and wants to hit FA. If nothing goes wrong with his arm, he could easily be looking at a deal well over $100 million.

If D1 was interested in a long-term deal at a reasonable value for the team, I have a ton of confidence that it'd be done already. I think he's pitching his arbitration years and wants to hit FA. If nothing goes wrong with his arm, he could easily be looking at a deal well over $100 million.

 

As healthy as he has been, and the numbers he has put up as a lefty, that would be the starting point for a deal.

As healthy as he has been, and the numbers he has put up as a lefty, that would be the starting point for a deal.

As I said, "Well over". I don't think he'll touch Captain Cheeseburger dollars...but he could always snap a sub-3 ERA season out in the next 2 years and put himself at that level.

Is he really in that elite category? with a 1.29 career WHIP?

 

I love me some Danks, but I don't think he's quite top-tier yet...

As I said, "Well over". I don't think he'll touch Captain Cheeseburger dollars...but he could always snap a sub-3 ERA season out in the next 2 years and put himself at that level.

 

He is looking at a seven or eight year deal if he hits the open market. The guy doesn't miss starts and is left handed. In this day and age, that is worth about 10 million a season all by itself. Throw in the sub 4 eras, the way less than a hit per inning, and not many walks either, and you are in the 17/18 million a year range.

Is he really in that elite category? with a 1.29 career WHIP?

 

I love me some Danks, but I don't think he's quite top-tier yet...

Captain Cheeseburger's career ERA+ when the Yankees signed him at age 27 was 120, his career WHIP was 1.24.

 

D1: the Pitching Danks's career ERA+ is 117. His Career WHIP is 1.29. And most importantly...his best years should still be ahead of him. His WHIP this season, for example, is 1.14.

Captain Cheeseburger's career ERA+ when the Yankees signed him at age 27 was 120, his career WHIP was 1.24.

 

D1: the Pitching Danks's career ERA+ is 117. His Career WHIP is 1.29. And most importantly...his best years should still be ahead of him. His WHIP this season, for example, is 1.14.

 

He would still do well to be awarded 7 million this year in arbitration and 11 million next year from the Sox...so let's just concentrate on 2 years at $18M.

Pitching numbers are improved across the board for the entire league. So although his numbers this year are his best yet, you have to look at in the context of pitching in 2010. I don't think he quite qualifies as an #1/ace but he's pretty close.

Something tells me that D1 gets moved before he hits FA.