Thought it might be nice to have a thread for the day

This title is kind of misleading.

Thought it might be nice to have a thread for the day

 

So do people think the Repubs are going to take control of Congress? I personally think the Dems are going to come out and vote, lessening the big swing a lot of people are expecting. House yes, Senate unlikely.

 

Also, thank god this election cycle is over. Campaign ads are always bad, but this year was especially negative and obnoxious. Everywhere I turned there was an ad on TV, the radio, billboards, signs, etc., talking about how awful the other guy is. I spent 2 weeks at the beginning of October in Hawaii on my honeymoon and it was all over the islands. So tired of it.

Have they declared any winners yet?

This title is kind of misleading.

how so?

Have they declared any winners yet?

We're all winners

So do people think the Repubs are going to take control of Congress? I personally think the Dems are going to come out and vote, lessening the big swing a lot of people are expecting. House yes, Senate unlikely.

 

Also, thank god this election cycle is over. Campaign ads are always bad, but this year was especially negative and obnoxious. Everywhere I turned there was an ad on TV, the radio, billboards, signs, etc., talking about how awful the other guy is. I spent 2 weeks at the beginning of October in Hawaii on my honeymoon and it was all over the islands. So tired of it.

 

 

I am sticking with my prediction here from several months ago of an R gain of at least 70 in the House. Minimum gain of 7 in the Senate.

Does anyone know of a good site with a break down of all the races. With maybe a map and some poll numbers.

Also, brought my almost-2-year-old daughter with to vote this AM. Her first time seeing that process. She is wearing an "I voted" sticker to school today, and quite proud of it.

 

how so?

Well.. America doesn't vote all that much.

For national and governor races:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

 

Nate Silver of PECOTA fame's political polling blog. He does quite a bit of statistical analysis of the various polls and comes up with a composite model. His predictions for the 2008 races were really good.

 

Not sure for local races. Might try checking the Trib and local news stations. You just don't see as much (if any) polling for state congress, judges etc.

Does anyone know of a good site with a break down of all the races. With maybe a map and some poll numbers.

Best site for statistical analysis of polls and what not is Nate Silver's 538 blog.

 

 

I'll call the Senate 52-48 Dems after the election, and GOP wins the house and gets a 10-20 seat majority there.

 

I'll call the Senate 52-48 Dems after the election, and GOP wins the house and gets a 10-20 seat majority there.

That.

Oh, and I want my F***ing sticker.

Reading this just reinforced why I could never vote for a Republican in today's political system. I vote for quite a few Green or Independents when I'm unhappy with a Dem candidate but I can never vote for the Republican agenda:

 

Thirty years ago, voting for individuals wasn't crazy. There were conservative Democrats and liberalish Republicans, and they sometimes helped the parties make deals in Congress that, perhaps, made the independent-minded folks happy. Nothing wrong with that.

 

But no longer.

 

We have, for all practical purposes, a parliamentary system these days, with strong party discipline and down-the-line voting. Almost no one crosses the aisle to vote for compromise measures anymore, and this means that it make a lot less sense to vote for personalities than it used to. Here in California, even some loyal Democrats might think that Barbara Boxer is not the greatest senator in the history of the Golden State, but so what? Given the current state of American politics, all that matters is that she'll vote for the Democratic agenda and Carly Fiorina will vote for the Republican one. That is all ye know, and and all ye need to know.

 

via

Senate 53-47 Democrats

House 223-212 Republicans

So do people think the Repubs are going to take control of Congress? I personally think the Dems are going to come out and vote, lessening the big swing a lot of people are expecting. House yes, Senate unlikely.

 

I agree completely.

 

While Democrats were complacent, all of the huge predictions for Republicans may cause a few more Democrats to show up.

I agree completely.

 

While Democrats were complacent, all of the huge predictions for Republicans may cause a few more Democrats to show up.

 

I'm wondering what people's take is on this. (and i guess we'll find out for sure in approx 6-8 hours)

 

Turnout has been reported as higher than expected.

 

Is this a cause of..

 

1) There's a lot more angry people out there than originally expected. Watch out cause here they come.

2) All of these polls and chat about "likely voters" vs "registered voters" may be off track.

3) The talk about an "enthusiasm gap" may be untrue.

 

My personal thought is a combination of 2/3. I would think that those who fall into Category #1, would have voted in the Primaries, where turnout was normal.

I'm wondering what people's take is on this. (and i guess we'll find out for sure in approx 6-8 hours)

 

Turnout has been reported as higher than expected.

 

Is this a cause of..

 

1) There's a lot more angry people out there than originally expected. Watch out cause here they come.

2) All of these polls and chat about "likely voters" vs "registered voters" may be off track.

3) The talk about an "enthusiasm gap" may be untrue.

 

My personal thought is a combination of 2/3. I would think that those who fall into Category #1, would have voted in the Primaries, where turnout was normal.

 

 

Turnout in Illinois?

If I had to pick one race that would/could be the upset du jour, I would pick McMahon in CT. On the Dem side I would pick Sestak.

Turnout in Illinois?

Trib's running blog makes it seem that turnout in Chicago area precincts is on par with 2008, which was a Prez election, so that's quite high.

 

My favorite part of the night is trying to extrapolate results based on the exit polls. I love it!

Breaking news!

Turnout statistics from random precincts confirm your hopes or fears.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/11/02/h...s_n_777640.html