The US Federal Budget Crisis

[NorthSideSox72]

This has been discussed in other threads a bit, but I wanted to throw it out for general discussion.

 

The US is running a $1.5T deficit (give or take), and has trillions in debt. We will soon hit the debt ceiling. We have clearly done a poor job - Dems and Republicans, Presidents and Congress, States and localities - of balancing our budgets. On this no one disagrees.

 

But I challenge you, the Busterites, to offer YOUR SOLUTIONS. Not just "spend less" or "tax more", but real, actual plans. I'd love to see what people come up with. Raise taxes? If so, which ones and to what degree? Cut discretionary spending? Which parts or all, and how much? Social Security? Medicare? Defense?

 

I'll add mine a bit later today I think.

 

[knightni]

Charge higher taxes on companies that import product and outsource jobs.

[BigSqwert]

Charge higher taxes on companies that import product and outsource jobs.

That and legalize marijuana.

[BigSqwert]

A detailed look at the Rand Paul spending bill. Reduction percentage in parenthesis.

 

LEGISLATIVE BRANCH...............................$1,283,000,000. (23%)

Notes: The Government Printing Office is abolished.

 

JUDICIAL BRANCH......................................$2,434,000,000. (32%)

 

AGRICULTURE............................................$42,542,000,000. (30%)

The Agriculture Research Service, National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Resources Conservation Service, and Foreign Agricultural Service are abolished. The Forest Service gets a $1.2 billion haircut.

 

COMMERCE...................................................$5,322,000,000. (54%)

National Oceanic And Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is cut by $857,000,000.

 

DEFENSE.......................................................$47,500,000,000. (6.5%)

 

EDUCATION..................................................$78,000,000,000 (83%)

Only the Pell grant program survives.

 

ENERGY............................................................$44,200,000,000 (100%)

The Defense Department takes over all of Energy's remaining functions (nuclear waste, for example) and about $18 billion of its budget.

 

HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES..............$26,510,000,000. (26%)

Notes: FDA is cut by $230,000,000; Indian Health Service is cut by $650 million; CDC is cut by $1.17 billion; NIH by $5.8 billion.

 

HOMELAND SECURITY.................................$23,765,000,000. (43%)

Notes: Coast Guard is shifted to Defense. TSA's funds are cut by $900 million.

 

HOUSING AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT....$53,100,000,000. (100%)

Notes: Completely eliminated. Veterans' housing programs are transferred to the VA

 

INTERIOR........................................................$10,934,000,000. (78%)

Bureau of Reclamation and Bureau of Indian Affairs are abolished.

 

JUSTICE.............................................................$9,057,000,000. (28%)

Note: Office of Justice Programs is abolished.

 

LABOR....................................................$2,803,000,000. (2%)

OSHA, MSHA, and the The Employment and Training Administration are spared all cuts (no cuts to unemployment benefits)

 

STATE...................................................................$20,321,000,000. (71%)

Note: Massive foreign aid cuts. All international commissions and organizations are defunded.

 

TRANSPORTATION............................................$42,810,000,000. (49%)

Notes: Amtrak is completely de-funded.

 

VETERANS’ AFFAIRS..........................................No cuts

 

CORPS OF ENGINEERS......................................$1,854,000,000. (27%)

 

EPA..............................................................$3,238,000,000. (29%)

 

GENERAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION.....$1,936,000,000. (85%)

 

INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS...$24,300,000,000 (100%)

 

NASA.........................................................................$4,500,000,000 (25%)

 

NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION...............$4,723,000,000. (62%)

 

OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT.......$9,070,000,000.

 

SOCIAL SECURITY ADMINISTRATION.........No cuts

 

FCC...........................................................$2,150,000,000. (22%)

 

ABOLISH...............................................................$2,050,000,000. (100%)

 

(1) Affordable Housing Program.

(2) Commission on Fine Arts.

(3) Consumer Product Safety Commission.

(4) Corporation for Public Broadcasting.

(5) National Endowment for the Arts.

(6) National Endowment for the Humanities.

(7) State Justice Institute.

 

MISC

 

Collect delinquent taxes from Federal Employees........$3,000,000,000.

Freeze Federal Government employee pay...................$2,000,000,000.

Reduce Federal Government travel..............................$7,500,000,000.

Repeal Davis-Bacon..................................................... $6,000,000,000.

Prohibit union project labor agreements......................$2,000,000,000.

TARP repeal.................................................................$4,481,000,000.

Sell Federal Buildings..................................................$19,000,000,000.

Reduce Federal vehicle budget..........................................$600,000,000.

Edited January 27, 2011 by BigSqwert

[StrangeSox]

Ron Paul hates science, based on that budget.

[BigSqwert]

Ron Paul hates science, based on that budget.

That's Rand, not Ron.

[NorthSideSox72]

OK, here is the NSS Plan (at least the beginnings of it)...

 

TAXATION

--Close the carried interest and professional investment income loopholes

--Remove the regressive cap on SS Tax

--Get rid of a good chunk of the targeted and silly tax protections for specific companies and industries that don't need protection - and then lower the overall corporate tax rate

--Allow income tax levels for the top two tiers to revert back to pre-Bush cuts

--More use of use taxes and fees for agencies' specific areas of service

 

SPENDING

--No more subsidies for fossil fuel energy production, of any kind

--Defense spending has incresed by 45% in less than a decade, NOT INCLUDING the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. They need to revert back to an inflation-adjusted number around the year 2000

--Discretionary spending capped at inflationary gains, reverting back to equivalent 2008 dollars

--Earmarks banned, period

--Medicare needs a complete re-work - I'll admit I am not sure exactly what that would involve, I'd need to learn more

--Small increases in SS retirement age levels

--All government agencies subject to periodic efficiency audits done NOT by Congressional committees, but by private, business-focused consulting firms, with eyes towards waste, prevailing wage differential, cost of service and cost passed on to users. Some agencies can be outright shut down if their administative costs are too high and can't be fixed. Others will see cuts, but yet others may see increases in funding.

--Out of Iraq, and then Afghanistan

--Foreign aid needs to be cut massively

 

EFFICIENCY

--No government agency should be running deficits or getting any government money to conduct any business that is already handled by private business just fine. The Postal Service can try to compete with UPS, FedEx and DHL if they want to, but on their own dime.

 

DEBT

--No more borrowing from the SS Fund

 

JOBS

--Any government contact to a private firm needs to give first shot to any firm that produces the product or servce domestically, with US jobs. Scaling points in the decision matrix for varying degrees.

--All energy department dollars for research, tax credits and write-offs, development and direct purchase (when possible on the last one) should go to alternative, renewable energy sources

 

OTHER POLICY

--Legalize and tax MJ, re-focus DEA efforts on other drugs (will cut DEA costs substantially, and add new revenue stream)

--Dept of Education should be gutted, but not fully removed - they need to set policy and standards, and force the states and localities to fund and implement their own ways to achieve those goals (cuts budget of department)

--Constitutional Amendment specifying single subject on all legislation (prevents bulls*** spending)

[jasonxctf]

- legalize online gambling. Auction off the licenses (say 5) to the highest, responsible bidders. Require any/all jobs associated with the operations (sales, marketing, IT support, payouts, etc) to be headquartered in the US. Tax any individual with winnings over $600 at 15%.

 

- do a sale-leaseback on current government owned properties.

[NorthSideSox72]

I'll add more...

 

As Obama brought up in the SOTU address, the government agency org chart needs re-thinking. For example, law enforcement. There is no good reason for the FBI, DEA, ICE, USSS, Marshalls, ATF, NPS LER's, BLM/FWS cops, etc., to be in different agencies all over the government. There should be a single, cabinet level department that focuses on crime and law enforcement, with all those agencies underneath. Get rid of the Homeland Security bulls*** entirely. Put NSA and CIA in a single area, together. You then have one law enforcement department, and one department housing intelligence. This will decrease overhead, increase communications, and make all of them more agile.

 

There are other examples of this sort of thing. National Park Service, BLM, USFS, FWS - should all be in Interior, and share some common overhead.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

- legalize online gambling. Auction off the licenses (say 5) to the highest, responsible bidders. Require any/all jobs associated with the operations (sales, marketing, IT support, payouts, etc) to be headquartered in the US. Tax any individual with winnings over $600 at 15%.

 

- do a sale-leaseback on current government owned properties.

I'm pretty sure gambling winnings are already taxed at your regular differential rate, so you are proposing a tax cut. Is that what you intended?

 

And do you mean the government SELLS property and leases it from owners, or BUYS property and leases it to others?

 

[jasonxctf]

I'm pretty sure gambling winnings are already taxed at your regular differential rate, so you are proposing a tax cut. Is that what you intended?

 

And do you mean the government SELLS property and leases it from owners, or BUYS property and leases it to others?

 

the only time gambling winnings are taxed (casino-wise) is at slot machines. If you win $1000 at the Craps table, roulette wheel, poker game, card game, etc, it is not taxed. You are also not taxed at slot machines if you win (2) $500 jackpots. You're only taxed if the immediate payout is greater than $799 or something like that. (it varies per state i think)

 

So what I'm proposing, is that all deposits/withdraws are regulated thru a Paypal-like government run system (to also track money laundering) so anyone playing any type of on-line gaming, is taxed on annual winnings (net surplus) exceeding $600. At the same point, I'd seriously stiffen the penalities of anyone caught using a non-us government regulated gaming website (cayman islands betonsports.com or a local bookie, etc) and call it tax evasion too.

 

As for the sale leaseback piece, we only here about the income statement side of the federal government. We never hear about the balance sheet side. The government may have built a building in downtown NYC for $2 million back in 1930 that's worth $50 million today. It's an asset. Sell the asset to a landlord, take the cash and start renting the property back. (if its truly needed) At the same time, you'd eliminate any out of pocket expenses of owning vs renting, can take the $ and use it to pay down other capital debt. (with the rental expense as an operating expense)

[StrangeSox]

I believe you're supposed to claim those winnings, it's just that most people don't.

[Balta1701]

First of all...there is no crisis in the federal budget.

 

There is no federal budgetary crisis right now. Interest rates on U.S. federal debt remain near historic lows. If there were a crisis, interest rates would be spiking to convince people to continue buying that debt.

 

There is a major long-term issue with Medicare.

 

There is a major, major crisis in unemployment. That is the real crisis.

 

Anyway, here's the way to interpret the current deficit. This chart is 2 years old, created just after the stimulus. It underestimates the 2011 deficit because of the tax plan that was just passed.

 

 

The "Economic downturn" portion is composed of 3 things; people who were taxpayers and are no longer paying taxes because they're unemployed, people who are being paid lower wages and therefore are paying less in taxes, and people who are now on government benefits such as unemployment and Medicaid because they no longer have jobs. If your policy pushes unemployment down, it makes a very large dent in the deficit. However, if your deficit reduction policy pushes up unemployment, you do not improve the deficit situation, because all you do is take taxpayers and turn them into unemployed folks.

 

If you end the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, then you have another huge chunk. Finally, if you allow the Bush tax cuts to expire, you eliminate another large slice.

 

The long-term deficit is still something worth discussing. Medicare remains the overwhelming majority of that problem. The PPACA helped delay the problem somewhat, but it will still be there. All of the other changes...eliminating earmarks, cutting back programs your side doesn't like, changing the tax code, those are all small tweaks that people use to mask real issues.

[BigSqwert]

Good stuff Balta.

[iamshack]

the only time gambling winnings are taxed (casino-wise) is at slot machines. If you win $1000 at the Craps table, roulette wheel, poker game, card game, etc, it is not taxed. You are also not taxed at slot machines if you win (2) $500 jackpots. You're only taxed if the immediate payout is greater than $799 or something like that. (it varies per state i think)

 

So what I'm proposing, is that all deposits/withdraws are regulated thru a Paypal-like government run system (to also track money laundering) so anyone playing any type of on-line gaming, is taxed on annual winnings (net surplus) exceeding $600. At the same point, I'd seriously stiffen the penalities of anyone caught using a non-us government regulated gaming website (cayman islands betonsports.com or a local bookie, etc) and call it tax evasion too.

 

As for the sale leaseback piece, we only here about the income statement side of the federal government. We never hear about the balance sheet side. The government may have built a building in downtown NYC for $2 million back in 1930 that's worth $50 million today. It's an asset. Sell the asset to a landlord, take the cash and start renting the property back. (if its truly needed) At the same time, you'd eliminate any out of pocket expenses of owning vs renting, can take the $ and use it to pay down other capital debt. (with the rental expense as an operating expense)

I'm not sure about the Illinois rule, but here in Vegas, you certainly can be taxed at the table games. It's just that they do it at the cashier, and they do it at certain thresholds. I believe it's $10,000. You can defeat this, however, by cashing your chips in at different times in smaller increments, the same way you can defeat other federal tax schemes.

[Chet Lemon]

At first glance, nothing offends me terribly in Rand Paul's budget except gutting TSA. You may dislike them now, but once another airport-related attack occurs, they will come back bigger, more expensive, and likely more "annoying" than ever.

 

I would also oppose his defunding of all international organizations. While UN is often disappointing, the fact that there is an organized world forum in our backyard is a small price especially in relation to the budget. Despite NATO's disappointments in Afghanistan, I believe that is an alliance worth keeping, as more democracies in Eastern Europe wish to enter in. All told, their expenses would still be a fraction of even a gutted federal budget.

[BigSqwert]

At first glance, nothing offends me terribly in Rand Paul's budget except gutting TSA.

 

Cutting Education by 83% doesn't bother you? And eliminating Housing and Urban Development completely?

[Balta1701]

At first glance, nothing offends me terribly in Rand Paul's budget except gutting TSA. You may dislike them now, but once another airport-related attack occurs, they will come back bigger, more expensive, and likely more "annoying" than ever.

I can go through Rand Paul's list and find 50 different cuts I can make the same case about though, that you cut them and the costs will come back 10 times over. He eliminates the Consumer Product Safety Commission. These are the people whose job it is to actively find out if your chinese toys are painted with lead or if your baby's crib will kill it. You may dislike spending money on it...until your child brushes its teeth with leaden-toothpaste.

 

You cut back on the EPA, and you're amazed at this new spike in asthma attacks.

 

You cut back on the Corps of Engineers and then a Hurricane hits NOLA and you have $100 billion in rebuilding costs.

 

You kill off Amtrak and then suddenly you're faced with massive new demands for road use.

 

You cut the NIH, hell...biological research, who needs that?

[Balta1701]

EFFICIENCY

--No government agency should be running deficits or getting any government money to conduct any business that is already handled by private business just fine. The Postal Service can try to compete with UPS, FedEx and DHL if they want to, but on their own dime.

An element of this idea made it into Rand Paul's list also, he saves $50 million a year by cutting back on the "Essential air service", which spends government funds ensuring that rural areas are able to maintain access to air service.

 

It's worth understanding though why these sorts of things happen. There's been good discussion on this topic out in the world over the last few days as a consequence.

There are multiple reasons why this argument is bogus, the most important of which is that unlike any private corporation (or any government agency, for that matter), the Postal Service is required by law to prepay health benefits for future retirees, which costs it about $5 billion a year. We've also come to accept that we should only have to pay 44 cents to send a letter, when sending the same letter via FedEx or UPS will cost you about 20 times as much.

 

There's another very important reason the Postal Service loses money, and that is that it has no choice but to service areas that are extremely unprofitable, namely rural areas. In fact, a few hundred million times a year, FedEx and UPS take packages to a post office and pay the USPS to deliver them, because it just isn't profitable for them to send their driver to some far-flung unincorporated area just to drop off a package or two. And guess what: there's an ideological component to this, as Matt Yglesias argues with regard to a government program that supports commercial air service to rural areas:

Let's be clear on what you're arguing. The reason why the postal service isn't competitive with the others is that the postal service has its rates and its requirements fixed by Congress. If the Postal Service had no public mandates, then a large chunk of its postal offices can and would be shut down for not being profitable, and they'd have large rural areas that would only see delivery once or twice a week, things like that.

 

Just as the Essential Air Service is providing a benefit to rural areas, the postal service is as well. If you want to make the argument that the U.S. spends too much providing infrastructure to rural areas, then make that argument; comparing those services to Fedex is making the wrong case.

[NorthSideSox72]

I believe you're supposed to claim those winnings, it's just that most people don't.

 

Exactly, and if you report it (which the law says you have to), its taxed as income.

 

First of all...there is no crisis in the federal budget.

 

There is no federal budgetary crisis right now. Interest rates on U.S. federal debt remain near historic lows. If there were a crisis, interest rates would be spiking to convince people to continue buying that debt.

 

There is a major long-term issue with Medicare.

 

There is a major, major crisis in unemployment. That is the real crisis.

 

Anyway, here's the way to interpret the current deficit. This chart is 2 years old, created just after the stimulus. It underestimates the 2011 deficit because of the tax plan that was just passed.

 

 

The "Economic downturn" portion is composed of 3 things; people who were taxpayers and are no longer paying taxes because they're unemployed, people who are being paid lower wages and therefore are paying less in taxes, and people who are now on government benefits such as unemployment and Medicaid because they no longer have jobs. If your policy pushes unemployment down, it makes a very large dent in the deficit. However, if your deficit reduction policy pushes up unemployment, you do not improve the deficit situation, because all you do is take taxpayers and turn them into unemployed folks.

 

If you end the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, then you have another huge chunk. Finally, if you allow the Bush tax cuts to expire, you eliminate another large slice.

 

The long-term deficit is still something worth discussing. Medicare remains the overwhelming majority of that problem. The PPACA helped delay the problem somewhat, but it will still be there. All of the other changes...eliminating earmarks, cutting back programs your side doesn't like, changing the tax code, those are all small tweaks that people use to mask real issues.

Interesting stuff, but I disagree with the idea that there isn't a crisis. Servicing the debt is a large chunk of the budget and will only get larger, SS/Medicare are huge drains, the economy sucks... this is what I'd call a crisis. Now, it could be a WORSE crisis... but when you are looking at the idea that the federal budget will be less than 10% discretionary outside of debt/SS/Medicare/Defense in the next decade, that's a huge problem in my eyes.

 

Some of what you suggest: ending wars, ending at least some of the Bush tax cuts, I agree with.

 

But what you are obviously trying to lean towards here is that more spending by the government will be what lifts us out of the doldrums. Noted.

 

Your last point, that "all the other changes" are small tweaks used to mask the problem, is a stinking pile of it. You cannot sit there and say you shouldn't touch those things, just because other things (which I also addressed) are bigger.

 

[NorthSideSox72]

An element of this idea made it into Rand Paul's list also, he saves $50 million a year by cutting back on the "Essential air service", which spends government funds ensuring that rural areas are able to maintain access to air service.

 

It's worth understanding though why these sorts of things happen. There's been good discussion on this topic out in the world over the last few days as a consequence.

 

Let's be clear on what you're arguing. The reason why the postal service isn't competitive with the others is that the postal service has its rates and its requirements fixed by Congress. If the Postal Service had no public mandates, then a large chunk of its postal offices can and would be shut down for not being profitable, and they'd have large rural areas that would only see delivery once or twice a week, things like that.

 

Just as the Essential Air Service is providing a benefit to rural areas, the postal service is as well. If you want to make the argument that the U.S. spends too much providing infrastructure to rural areas, then make that argument; comparing those services to Fedex is making the wrong case.

 

No, you are misinterpereting me. I am saying that the Postal Service should do these things:

 

--Provide that which private business will not and cannot - basic mail

--Charge for that service the amount of money it actually costs

--Elect to compete in related services if and only if it can compete on at least an even budget

 

[jasonxctf]

Gambling Tax Laws

http://www.casinogaming.com/features/taxlaws.html

 

The IRS form W2-G is issued to players and is also sent to the IRS by the casino for certain gambling winnings: (1) winnings of $600 or more from state lotteries, horse racing, dog racing or jai alai and other wagering transactions, if the winnings are at least 300 times the wager; (2) winnings of $1,200 or more from bingo and slot machines; (3) winnings of $1,500 or more from keno, less the amount of the tickets bought on the winning game; (4) winnings of $600 or more from horse racing, dog racing or jai alai, if the winnings are at least 300 times the wager.

 

W2-Gs are not require for winnings from table games such as blackjack, craps, pai gow, baccarat and roulette, regardless of the amount.

 

Casinos and card rooms are subject to the "money-laundering rules," and must report aggregate cash transactions of $10,000 or more in any one day to the IRS.

They also can make out such reports for amounts as low as $2,000 if they are suspicious. Once a casino has your SSN and ID on record, they can issue these Cash Transaction Reports (CTRs) without your knowledge.

[iamshack]

Gambling Tax Laws

http://www.casinogaming.com/features/taxlaws.html

 

The IRS form W2-G is issued to players and is also sent to the IRS by the casino for certain gambling winnings: (1) winnings of $600 or more from state lotteries, horse racing, dog racing or jai alai and other wagering transactions, if the winnings are at least 300 times the wager; (2) winnings of $1,200 or more from bingo and slot machines; (3) winnings of $1,500 or more from keno, less the amount of the tickets bought on the winning game; (4) winnings of $600 or more from horse racing, dog racing or jai alai, if the winnings are at least 300 times the wager.

 

W2-Gs are not require for winnings from table games such as blackjack, craps, pai gow, baccarat and roulette, regardless of the amount.

 

Casinos and card rooms are subject to the "money-laundering rules," and must report aggregate cash transactions of $10,000 or more in any one day to the IRS.

They also can make out such reports for amounts as low as $2,000 if they are suspicious. Once a casino has your SSN and ID on record, they can issue these Cash Transaction Reports (CTRs) without your knowledge.

The W2-G is the form the casino has to submit. The reason they don't submit them for table games is because table games pay you in chips, per win and loss, and thus, they don't keep exact win and loss totals. You then take those chips to the cage, where they pay you in cash. If you try to cash more than $10k I believe, they have to submit forms to the IRS per those money laundering rules.

 

However, you are still supposed to report the winnings as taxable income. And if you show up as cashing $10k worth of chips at a casino, that is certainly going to set off some alarms with the IRS.

IRS

Edited January 27, 2011 by iamshack

[jasonxctf]

The W2-G is the form the casino has to submit. The reason they don't submit them for table games is because table games pay you in chips, per win and loss, and thus, they don't keep exact win and loss totals. You then take those chips to the cage, where they pay you in cash. If you try to cash more than $10k I believe, they have to submit forms to the IRS per those money laundering rules.

 

However, you are still supposed to report the winnings as taxable income. And if you show up as cashing $10k worth of chips at a casnio, that is certainly going to set off some alarms with the IRS.

IRS

 

What if I show up at the Bellagio casino with a few of those $25,000 chips?

[StrangeSox]

Those forms are basically so people can't skip out on paying taxes on large winnings. The IRS wouldn't really have any other way of documenting or knowing that you won $200k at the tables but didn't report it.