AL Central not going according to plan

[southsider2k5]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20...rtnerId=rss_cws

 

AL Central not going according to plan

Expected contenders must solve problems before it's too late

 

By Matthew Leach | MLB.com Columnist

 

Back when we all thought we knew what was going to happen in the 2011 season -- that is to say, before a pitch had been thrown -- it appeared that the two Central divisions might provide baseball's most compelling races. Each featured several talented but flawed teams, teasing the possibility of wide-open, multi-team pennant races.

 

The National League Central has, after an odd first week or two, delivered as promised. The three favorites, the Reds, Cardinals and Brewers, are locked in a close race that could well last for six months. The American League Central, though ... is just odd.

 

Cleveland has been baseball's best story, running out to a big lead after being written off by, well, just about everyone. The Royals have likewise been a pleasant early-season surprise. Meanwhile, the three teams expected to battle it out at the top have instead sunk to the bottom. The Tigers, White Sox and Twins have the three worst records not only in the division, but in the AL. They have the league's three worst run differentials as well.

 

The best of them, Detroit, trails the division-leading Tribe by eight games. There's a lot of season left, but eight games is a daunting hill to climb. Minnesota stands fully 10 games out of first place. Being five games under .500 in early May, as the Tigers are, does not automatically spell doom. Being 10 games out of first place, though, that's not nothing.

 

The odds are that at least one of the three will rally, but not all of them. It helps that even an optimist must admit that it's tough to see the Indians playing .700 ball all year long. We still don't have enough information to make definitive statements on what these three teams are going to be, but we've seen enough baseball to start getting reads on them.

 

What's distressing for all of these clubs is that in no case is there one simple cause, one thing they can point to and say, 'Fix THAT, and we're fine.' There's a lot going on, in every case.

 

Minnesota is surely in the most difficult spot. The Twins are alone in last, they've scored the fewest runs in the American League, and they've allowed the most. It's rare for a last-place team to have a worse Pythagorean record than actual record, but that's the Twins' situation. They're 9-18, and their run differential suggests that even that is fortunate -- their expected record is 7-20.

 

"We still believe in our system and we believe in what we do," manager Ron Gardenhire said recently. "We just haven't gotten it done. "Throwing the ball over the plate, catching the ball, running the bases. ... All the things we pride ourselves in, like a lot of other organizations, it's a work in progress."

 

Some things should get better. Surely Francisco Liriano won't carry a 9-plus ERA all year, and Nick Blackburn and Carl Pavano should pitch better, too. But that might not be enough to get this team where it needs to be. Minnesota's offseason bullpen drain has proved costly, as have some defensive downgrades.

 

Twins pitchers always pitch to contact, and this year is no different. They're striking out fewer hitters than any American League team. Yet they have the third-worst defensive efficiency rating in the AL. That's a very dangerous combination. If the pitchers aren't getting punchouts, it's imperative for defenders to turn those batted balls into outs. The Twins fielders aren't, and there isn't much indication that they're going to start.

 

The offense should get a boost when Joe Mauer returns from his leg problems, but it seems to be anyone's guess when that will happen. And Justin Morneau is starting to warm up a bit, but he's still nowhere near the hitter he used to be. Hitters hit, as a general rule. But Morneau is not just any hitter, and until he shows he's back to what he was before his concussion, nothing should be assumed.

 

There's a history in Minneapolis of late-season runs, a fact that has to encourage the faithful. But the odds may be longer this year than they've been in quite a while.

 

The White Sox are the most puzzling. They are, for the most part, healthy. They're just not producing. Adam Dunn has an OPS in the low .600s. Mark Buehrle has an ERA north of 5.00. Alex Rios has 16 base hits for the entire season.

 

Some of these things, surely, will right themselves. Dunn is too good a hitter to struggle like this all year. Buehrle must be better than this. If the biggest problem is established stars not performing at their established levels, it's a good problem to have. Good players will, eventually, return to being good players. Yet you have to wonder when, since we're no longer talking about a week or two.

 

Like the Twins, the Sox also have some defensive issues, and their bullpen is very much in flux. Yet the pieces are in place for a better team. Chicago's good players should start playing well. If they don't, though, it's going to be a long year.

 

It's the Tigers, though, who are in the best position. For one thing, they're the closest to contention. Their best players are playing well. Miguel Cabrera is once again putting up MVP numbers. The top of their rotation hasn't been dominant, but it's been very strong. And the back of the bullpen is getting the job done, save for new acquisition Joaquin Benoit.

 

Where Detroit is lacking is beyond the top of the roster. Complementary regulars like Austin Jackson, Brandon Inge and Will Rhymes simply have not hit, and this might just be the year when Magglio Ordonez gets old. The infield defense has been a problem. That won't affect someone like Justin Verlander all that much, but for Brad Penny, it's an issue.

 

Yet help is on the way, in the form of Victor Martinez. Even if Ordonez is in the twilight of his career, he'll surely hit better than he has. And just a week ago, the Tigers were above .500. They look more like a team in a slump than a team having a bad year.

 

"I think that you just know you have a good team and you know it's going to play good," manager Jim Leyland said. "I don't know if it's going to be tonight or tomorrow or the next day, but this team will play good. There's absolutely no doubt in my mind. We have too many good players. This team will play good."

 

The road is decidedly uphill for all three of the expected contenders. But if anyone is best-positioned to make that climb, it's Detroit.

 

Matthew Leach is a reporter for MLB.com. Read his blog, Obviously, You're Not a Golfer and follow him on Twitter at @MatthewHLeach. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs.

[elrockinMT]

It s good to know a columnist sees what we have been saying for a few weeks now

[Milkman delivers]

As I've been saying and he seems to agree with, the Tigers are probably the team that will come out of this well.

 

Would anyone else find it strangely unsurprising if Adam Dunn, whose consistency over the years has become legendary around these parts, finally has an aberration season in his very first year with the Sox? I wouldn't have expected it, but I can now see it happening and thinking, "Yep, that's about right."

Edited May 3, 2011 by Milkman delivers

[southsider2k5]

He hasn't looked right to me since returning from surgery. He isn't even swining his hardest right now.

[Balta1701]

He hasn't looked right to me since returning from surgery. He isn't even swining his hardest right now.

He was looking better at the end of the Yankees series, then right back to blah against the O'S.

[southsider2k5]

He was looking better at the end of the Yankees series, then right back to blah against the O'S.

 

He is making better contact, but not swinging it has hard has he can. To me that is a red flag.

[Iwritecode]

"We have too many good players. This team will play good."

 

That sounds familiar...

[Yoda]

Would anyone else find it strangely unsurprising if Adam Dunn, whose consistency over the years has become legendary around these parts, finally has an aberration season in his very first year with the Sox? I wouldn't have expected it, but I can now see it happening and thinking, "Yep, that's about right."

 

Don’t be afraid to be so keen if your accepting reality as it is. Whose to say Dunn wasn’t going to flop his first year in the American League? Most of his career he’s played against pitcher’s who he has a record against and of course he’s always had a defensive role. All he can do now is just sit there until his turn is up and hope for the best.

 

You can try to be as optimistic as the next person, but you will be dissapointed more often than not.

 

[Milkman delivers]

Don’t be afraid to be so keen if your accepting reality as it is. Whose to say Dunn wasn’t going to flop his first year in the American League? Most of his career he’s played against pitcher’s who he has a record against and of course he’s always had a defensive role. All he can do now is just sit there until his turn is up and hope for the best.

 

You can try to be as optimistic as the next person, but you will be dissapointed more often than not.

 

I think the vast majority of posters and the general baseball world agreed that Dunn would likely have a normal season for his standards.

[Balta1701]

Don’t be afraid to be so keen if your accepting reality as it is. Whose to say Dunn wasn’t going to flop his first year in the American League? Most of his career he’s played against pitcher’s who he has a record against and of course he’s always had a defensive role. All he can do now is just sit there until his turn is up and hope for the best.

 

You can try to be as optimistic as the next person, but you will be dissapointed more often than not.

Adam Dunn has a career .885 OPS in interleague games, 36 HR in 567 PA's, nearly a full season of interleague at bats against the AL.

[southsider2k5]

I think the vast majority of posters and the general baseball world agreed that Dunn would likely have a normal season for his standards.

 

I also think the vast majority wouldn't have predicted he would have his appendix out in the second week of the season, either.

[Milkman delivers]

I also think the vast majority wouldn't have predicted he would have his appendix out in the second week of the season, either.

 

I'm just saying that it seems to suit our luck.

[Balta1701]

I'm just saying that it seems to suit our luck.

Who do we fire to fix that?

[Milkman delivers]

Who do we fire to fix that?

 

You obviously can't place the blame for it directly on one person. What you can do is to fire a manager for years of underachieving that was owed, in part, to guys having unlucky years.

[southsider2k5]

Here is the crazy thing, you could completely flip the standings and it would have surprised no one on this website if that is how they looked before this season started. I guess it is why you play the games.

[Yoda]

It amazes me how some of you live and die by stats and refuse to look at the current situation and possible future. I personally do acknowledge that Dunn has amazing power and has the ability to make a lineup look completely different but right now he is not scaring anyone and teams will recognize that and make him swing the bat.

 

Sure nobody knew his appendix would be removed so early in the season, but at least everyone should know to expect the unexpected and that’s what we’ve seen so far in the first month of baseball. Something stats won’t even tell you.

 

[witesoxfan]

It amazes me how some of you live and die by stats and refuse to look at the current situation and possible future. I personally do acknowledge that Dunn has amazing power and has the ability to make a lineup look completely different but right now he is not scaring anyone and teams will recognize that and make him swing the bat.

 

Sure nobody knew his appendix would be removed so early in the season, but at least everyone should know to expect the unexpected and that’s what we’ve seen so far in the first month of baseball. Something stats won’t even tell you.

 

I would also venture to guess that after a large enough sample size, these outliers will regress back to the mean and the most talented teams in the division will rise to the top. Depending upon certain circumstances, that could easily be the Royals and Indians.

 

I'm still going to take my chances on the Twins and White Sox.

 

At least Detroit is where they should be.

[Jake]

Wouldn't you rather your problem be that your proven stars aren't performing? The article says the Tigers are in a good position because Miggy, Verlander, and the boys are doing well.

 

I'd rather be wishing for players to return to their normal star caliber than wishing for lower-tier guys to pick up the slack, since our wish comes to true more often than the latter.

[Yoda]

I would also venture to guess that after a large enough sample size, these outliers will regress back to the mean and the most talented teams in the division will rise to the top. Depending upon certain circumstances, that could easily be the Royals and Indians.

 

I'm still going to take my chances on the Twins and White Sox.

 

At least Detroit is where they should be.

 

Don’t get me wrong, I have a feeling the Indians will “come back to earth” and the Royals will inevitably hit a wall sometime soon as well. The Sox just need to put together a nice stretch where they can show some offensive consistency and have the pitching staff keep them in the game. With that being said, once those two teams (CLE&KC) do hit that wall, the Sox will need to take advantage and we’re looking at a whole new article by the start of such month.

[witesoxfan]

Don’t get me wrong, I have a feeling the Indians will “come back to earth” and the Royals will inevitably hit a wall sometime soon as well. The Sox just need to put together a nice stretch where they can show some offensive consistency and have the pitching staff keep them in the game. With that being said, once those two teams (CLE&KC) do hit that wall, the Sox will need to take advantage and we’re looking at a whole new article by the start of such month.

 

I agree. What they really need to do in May is to stay relevant, because this is a month where they could fall off pretty drastically. 19 of their next 27 games are on the road (and after this series with the Twins, it's 19 of the next 25 games), and the worst team they play during that stretch is the Mariners who do have a pretty good pitching staff.

 

If they go, say, 11-16 during the next 27 games, that puts them at 22-35 and in drastic need of a miracle. 13-14 puts them 24-33, which is about where they were last year when they went on their run.

 

I can go through doomsday or miracle scenarios for while, but these next 27 games really dictate what the Sox do this season. I've been amongst the choir talking about how early it still is and that this team is too talented to continue to struggle as much as they have, but it stops being early in May. At the end of this month, the season will be 1/3 over and they only have another 1/3 until the trade deadline.

[Yoda]

A lot of things would have to go right for the Sox to put up at least a .500 record for this month. One of them would have to include finding and keeping the right mentality. No one can predict what the psyche of that clubhouse is right now and if it's anywhere close to Soxtalk's then they are doomed before they can even hit the road.

[southsider2k5]

Wouldn't you rather your problem be that your proven stars aren't performing? The article says the Tigers are in a good position because Miggy, Verlander, and the boys are doing well.

 

I'd rather be wishing for players to return to their normal star caliber than wishing for lower-tier guys to pick up the slack, since our wish comes to true more often than the latter.

 

That was my first thought is that it is harder to catch up when you have already peaked, than when you haven't even come close. there is a better chance of things going wrong after you have been hot, versus the other way around.

[Balta1701]

That was my first thought is that it is harder to catch up when you have already peaked, than when you haven't even come close. there is a better chance of things going wrong after you have been hot, versus the other way around.

Guys like Verlander and Cabrera doing what they always do isn't exactly "Peaking" though.