February 12, 201214 yr The fan base will not put up with another season like last year. Chairman Reinsdorf would definitely make a Gregory under these circumstances. [/Gregg] Wrong. If JR were to can KW for an awful 2012, he would have canned him already. Nothing KW has done this offseason has much to do with the success or failure of this years' team. If Dunn and Rilos comeback it has e nothing to do with KW.
February 12, 201214 yr QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:17 PM) When have the White Sox ever done that? Why would the White Sox do that and genuinely sacrifice their ticket sale position by putting a team out even weaker than this one? It's only a good baseball decision if teams are offering up a lot of talent for the guys the Sox have (they aren't, because too many teams are overvaluaing youth right now), and it's only a good business decision if the Sox can't afford their current roster, which clearly they now can. Yet you think season ticket sales for 2013 will allow Chairman Reinsdorf to keep Williams if they are bad again?
February 12, 201214 yr QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:29 PM) Yet you think season ticket sales for 2013 will allow Chairman Reinsdorf to keep Williams if they are bad again? First, I don't think anyone buys season tickets based on the ID of the GM. Secondly, based on the Forbes numbers, the White Sox ought to have regularly turned a profit of about $20 million when they had a total payroll around $100 million. Even with some erosion of ticket sales, with growth in ad sales they ought to still be able to turn a profit this year with a payroll around $105 million. The only season where they probably lost money out of the last decade was last year, where they spent a ton of money to give the manager a chance to prove he wasn't lying when he said he wanted to stay there. The fact that the Sox have pulled back on payroll gives the Sox plenty of room to remain profitable even with continued erosion of season ticket sales. The only real question is whether they're on the right path to fielding a competitive team in 2013/2014.
February 12, 201214 yr Author QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 12:47 PM) You don't keep Danks and Floyd in a rebuild. If Danks and Sale are the pitchers the White Sox think they are, that's as good a rotation as there is in the division. Williams said at Soxfest, if the Sox hit they will contend. The only reason Danks is here is he dropped his price and took a five year deal.
February 12, 201214 yr QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:29 PM) Yet you think season ticket sales for 2013 will allow Chairman Reinsdorf to keep Williams if they are bad again? Attendance has dropped 5 straight seasons and 6not is almost a guarantee. Its no factor in KWs employment. Or again he would be gone by now.
February 12, 201214 yr QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:35 PM) The only reason Danks is here is he dropped his price and took a five year deal. Wrong. The only reason he's still here is the Sox believe he is a $65M starter.
February 12, 201214 yr QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:38 PM) Wrong. The only reason he's still here is the Sox believe he is a $65M starter. 5 years for the a pitcher suggests JR was behind this contract.
February 12, 201214 yr QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:34 PM) First, I don't think anyone buys season tickets based on the ID of the GM. If the White Sox are bad again in 2012 there is a talent evaluation problem with this organization that will be addressed.
February 12, 201214 yr QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:42 PM) 5 years for the a pitcher suggests JR was behind this contract. It probably went through the GM first.
February 12, 201214 yr QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:42 PM) If the White Sox are bad again in 2012 there is a talent evaluation problem with this organization that will be addressed. Clearly, part of that talent is in your reading abilities, because you completely missed the post where we discussed how having guys like Viciedo, Morel, Sale, Reed, and the back 1/2 of the bullpen take time to develop, like kids are supposed to, doesn't state anything about the talent evaluation abilities of the front office.
February 12, 201214 yr QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:44 PM) It probably went through the GM first. And from the GM's spot it's a solid deal, one he's likely to outperform...and most importantly, a deal that is entirely moveable in the future if he doesn't get hurt. The GM would probably have stayed in touch with his side to know his approximate demands, and in the event that the owner finally became willing to go for them, the contract would get done.
February 12, 201214 yr QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:47 PM) Clearly, part of that talent is in your reading abilities, because you completely missed the post where we discussed how having guys like Viciedo, Morel, Sale, Reed, and the back 1/2 of the bullpen take time to develop, like kids are supposed to, doesn't state anything about the talent evaluation abilities of the front office. Williams does not have the free pass you believe he does.
February 12, 201214 yr QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:48 PM) And from the GM's spot it's a solid deal, one he's likely to outperform...and most importantly, a deal that is entirely moveable in the future if he doesn't get hurt. The GM would probably have stayed in touch with his side to know his approximate demands, and in the event that the owner finally became willing to go for them, the contract would get done. It would behoove Williams to be right on this contract.
February 12, 201214 yr QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:49 PM) Again, that points to talent evaluation. If they are good enough to keep the Sox must believe they are good enough to contend with. QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:04 PM) Perhaps, but if Beckham and Viciedo are struggling it still goes back to talent evaluation. QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:15 PM) The White Sox believe they are ready or they would have gone through a complete tear down. QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:29 PM) Yet you think season ticket sales for 2013 will allow Chairman Reinsdorf to keep Williams if they are bad again? QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:42 PM) If the White Sox are bad again in 2012 there is a talent evaluation problem with this organization that will be addressed. QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:44 PM) It probably went through the GM first. QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:57 PM) Williams does not have the free pass you believe he does. Notice how you do nothing but simply put in 1 line assertions and never, ever offer up any reason or evidence why anyone should believe you?
February 12, 201214 yr QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 03:59 PM) Notice how you do nothing but simply put in 1 line assertions and never, ever offer up any reason or evidence why anyone should believe you? Yes. You make better arguments than me.
February 12, 201214 yr QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 05:03 PM) Yes. You make better arguments than me. Then why should anyone believe you when you sit here and insist without evidence that there is a talent evaluation problem and that 2012 is an all-in season? Worse, not even without evidence, with a whole lot of opposition arguments staring you in the face that you will not deal with?
February 12, 201214 yr QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:05 PM) Then why should anyone believe you when you sit here and insist without evidence that there is a talent evaluation problem and that 2012 is an all-in season? Worse, not even without evidence, with a whole lot of opposition arguments staring you in the face that you will not deal with? I'm willing to concede that a single 79-win season on a $127M payroll doesn't necessarily mean there is a talent evaluation problem, however if they follow that up with a similar season on a $94M payroll, I think there is a talent evaluation problem.
February 12, 201214 yr QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 05:21 PM) I'm willing to concede that a single 79-win season on a $127M payroll doesn't necessarily mean there is a talent evaluation problem, however if they follow that up with a similar season on a $94M payroll, I think there is a talent evaluation problem. Why? A $100 million payroll next year will be pretty close to the middle of the league (esp. since the Marlins have jumped into the top 10). Thus, a .500 season with a middle-of-the-league payroll is exactly what should be expected. That isn't telling you that you have a talent evaluation problem, that's telling you that you're right where you should be for your payroll. Hopefully if you're at that point, you have some plan for the next set of moves to build towards the next season or two.
February 12, 201214 yr QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:26 PM) Why? A $100 million payroll next year will be pretty close to the middle of the league (esp. since the Marlins have jumped into the top 10). Thus, a .500 season with a middle-of-the-league payroll is exactly what should be expected. That isn't telling you that you have a talent evaluation problem, that's telling you that you're right where you should be for your payroll. Hopefully if you're at that point, you have some plan for the next set of moves to build towards the next season or two. You said it is a 71-win team on paper. Edited February 12, 201214 yr by Marty34
February 12, 201214 yr QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 05:39 PM) You said it is a 71-win team on paper. And so if they win 79 games, they've overperformed by that standard.
February 12, 201214 yr QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:45 PM) And so if they win 79 games, they've overperformed by that standard. PECOTA has the sox pegged for 78.8 wins this year....aka 79 wins
February 12, 201214 yr Of course, that 71 win projection is based mostly on 2011 and not on the back of their baseball cards. We'll see if "one year anomalies" or the collective wisdom of their entire body of stats wins out.
February 12, 201214 yr QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 04:45 PM) And so if they win 79 games, they've overperformed by that standard. How many 71 win teams spend $95-100M to get there and keep their GM?
February 12, 201214 yr QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 12, 2012 -> 05:50 PM) How many 71 win teams spend $95-100M to get there and keep their GM? Most of them.
February 12, 201214 yr 1-2 sentence authoritative assertions are cool. If only they could be written in Greg-esque style, that's the only thing holding back their true potency. Edited February 12, 201214 yr by caulfield12
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