joeynach

QUOTE (ewokpelts @ Mar 28, 2013 -> 03:50 PM) forbes is working without the participation of the league or teams. these may be inaccurate numbers. They are a reputable source, they have been doing this MLB franchise valuation piece every year for probably a decade now. They have easily established themselves as the credible source for MLB franchise's financial and valuation data. Are the numbers identical to what teams have on their own books or by their own underwriters, probably not, but I would say this is the best and most reputable we the public has. And if it wasn't accurate we would know b/c other reputable media sources wouldn't quote this data, these articles and pieces, and would be able to re-buff the information....that hasn't happened.

Joseph ‏@Joeynach 26 Mar @ChrisRongey Any info on velocity of Danks FB this spring. Was major issue last yr given the injury, -1.5 mph vs. 2011 & 2010 per fangraphs. Chris Rongey ‏@ChrisRongey 26 Mar @Joeynach He's been mid-to-upper 80s all spring. That being said, fangraphs had is FB velocity at 91.7 in both 2010 and 2011. In 2012 he dipped -1.5mph to 90.2 mph, assumable b/c of the capsular tear. B/c of that -1.5 dip he got beat up pretty bad, his K/9 dropped, BB/9 up, his H/9 way up, his BAA skyrocketed, his HR/9 went up, his BABIP went up, his ERA went through the roof. Simply put if he is not able to throw in the low 90's meaning at least 91.7 mph or better, he either won't be back or he won't be effective. My opinion, I don't even want to see him talked about as an option for the sox until he has demonstrated enough recovery and arm strength to be at 91.7+ MPH consistently.

Since Forbes just released their valuation of all MLB's franchises something interesting popped out to me. It's the fact that the White Sox have high payroll and relatively high revenue, and what we all know, woeful attendance. So does that mean another longtime generational standing tradition of baseball, that is, attendance & ticket sales equate to revenue & thus payroll a complete and utter myth. Forbes says the White Sox are the 11th most valuable franchise in MLB, worth $692M. Their revenue last year was $216M, good for 14th in MLB, their operating Income last year was $22.9M, good for tied for 9th in MLB, yes their attendance last year was a tick below 2M and good for 24th in MLB (was 2M in 2011, good for 20th). However, their payroll was $118M, good for 7th highest in the league ($129M in '11 good for 5th). So at the organizational level there must be an explanation. We know a few tidbits that help keep expenses low and thus operating income high; they pay just $1.5 million in fixed rent plus $3-7 for every ticket sold above annual attendance of 1.9 million at U.S. Cellular Field, but keep all ticket, parking, concessions, signage and merchandise revenue. Ok, so that helps, but they have to be doing something fundamentally different, something that really does break the myth that high revenue's and payroll's are dependent upon good attendance. So what is it? They have excellent marketing? They have a crazy amount of luxury suites contracted out? They get a ton of money from Radio and TV? They get the most of any team from ballpark signage? Im really just picking at straws here.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Jan 27, 2013 -> 10:15 PM) The thing is, though, I don't think they want to be ONLY high contact, high OBP at the expense of power. Dunn and Viciedo aren't necessarily the guys they need to replace. What they need is for the people who aren't boppers to bring SOMETHING to the table offensively, preferably high OBP followed by contact. This is still U.S. Cellular Field, and you still need to hit the ball out of the park. I love a power lineup, especially in our park, but the Sox have too many hitters that if not clearing the fences, don't really bring anything else to the lineup offensively. Power is great, high OBP, high BB rate, high BABIP, high contact rate help balance out the not HR producing ABs for a power hitter. Unfortunately the White Sox have too many without any compliment to their power.

They can recognize their offensive deficiency and stress what ever they want, but without a change in personnel, Rich Hahn's dept, they are stuck with an abundance of low contact, high K guys. Stressing more contact isn't gonna turn career low contact hitters into high contact hitters, acquiring high contact hitters or drafting and developing them well. It's nice to see mgmt is watching the same game as us so to speak, and sees the same glaring deficiency that we and the media did all last year, team OBP. But as long as Alexi, Dunn, Flowers, Morel (if he plays), Viciedo are part of this lineup contact rate is going to be low and K's high. Heck even Rios, who had a great year last year had a .334 OBP, is that even league average?

QUOTE (CWSpalehoseCWS @ Dec 23, 2012 -> 01:09 AM) Kubel? HELL No. I can't believe some people wouldn't mind trading for him. The only way I would ever want the Sox to get him is if he was included with some other really nice player and they received him as a stopgap. He's not an improvement to the Sox. I agree if the Sox wanted Kubel that much they could have signed him in as a FA last off-season. He wasn't even that expensive as there wasn't a whole lot of interest. I think he signed something like 3 Years and $27M with AZ last winter. Now the sox want him all of a sudden and are willing to give up a significant piece of their everyday lineup to get him. Im calling BS on that. The only thing the sox would be interested in doing would be adding to their lineup without giving up significant everyday players, except for Floyd that is. A trade package around Floyd + Others the team would like to move (Thornton, Viciedo) for either Upton or Markakis makes a heck of a lot more sense than some asinine Ramirez for Kubel deal.

This from MLBTR, The White Sox are looking around for a left-handed hitter, according to Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com (on Twitter). The club has also made it known once again that Gavin Floyd is available. Interest in the right-hander is said to be high and the Orioles are one of the clubs who have him on the radar.Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/#b7YcVcixXWVrMXpR.99 That begs the question who would they be considering and what current position player would they be looking to replace/upgrade.

Well we don't know much about Hahn and his style yet, but from I have been able to gather he would compare similar to Theo Epstein or Jed Hoyer. Hahn is very affluent and well educated man, from his wiki page, "Hahn is a graduate of the University of Michigan, Harvard Law School, and Kellogg Graduate School of Management (Northwestern University)". We can assume he is a very through, articulate, and detailed oriented individual. I have also heard him say that he believes in the balance between traditional scouting and player development, and new age metrics and statistical analysis. Apparently, like Theo, he too has an army sabermatricians and metric analysts. I expect Hahn to be a "max value" guy, not necessarily a "big splash" guy (think Jim Hendry). I expect him to be methodical in his searches and moves, I expect him to move slower as a result, and I expect him to make a lot of moves that seem strange, small, or unfitting that turn out to be great moves of high impact to the team. I can't sit here and say oh hes a team OBP guy, oh hes a defensive minded guy, oh hes a pitching first guy, b/c honestly, I don't know. But I can tell you that we have a guy who will put analysis, logic, strategy into every move he makes, he reminds me of Theo, where it may not seem like much, but every move is part of some fundamental core or plan.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 10:54 AM) That would put us at about $105m ($99m with Viciedo, plus 12 players at 1/2 million each) without a dealing of Floyd, leaving say $5 million if we stay pretty much where we were last year (say $110m). We are back in the $95 million range if Floyd goes in a deal that doesn't bring back a major leaguer. The SP free agent market is thin. Haren signed for $13M and one year with his declining velocity and K rate. Dempster wants $13M per year for three years, will probably get it. Greinke will probably get his 7 Year, $180M deal from the Dodgers. That leaves two legit pitchers available for trade, Nolasco at $11.5M or Floyd at $9.5M. While both one year trades. I do believe there will be a few teams who see one year of Floyd at $9.5M is a better option than Nolasco at $11.5M, Dempster or Haren at $13M. That being said I expect Floyd to be traded. What we get, probably not too much. Maybe a legit prospect with a throw in. Something similar to what Minnesota just got for Span.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 4, 2012 -> 12:01 AM) And that was obviously because the hitters didn't strike out and had nothing to do with the incredible pitching they received for a 16 game stretch. I realize you're not saying that exactly, but you are implying it by pointing it out. I have no problem with hitters striking out, and I have no problem with them not striking out. I'd like some balance, but there are about a million different ways to get the goal accomplished and the idea is to look for the most efficient one. It's a huge "if" and it's not likely to happen, but if Reynolds could be brought on play a serviceable 3B, and hit .240 with all the power, you are looking at around an .825-.850 OPS player. That has ridiculous value. He's just also going to strike out about 200 times too. A lineup of De Aza Beckham Dunn Konerko Rios Reynolds Viciedo Flowers Ramirez or however you want to work it is going to hit a lot of home runs, they're going to score runs in bunches, but they'll also make a lot of outs. It's not my ideal option, but it's an option that, given other circumstances (perhaps finding other pieces for that lineup some way or another), might work really well. Adding Reynolds to the lineup would make it even more important that Rick Hahn look to fill either C or LF with someone who is not a big K guy and has a high OBP. It would help provide some balance, but that would imply trading on those guys and acquiring someone else. If the White Sox are in win the WS in 2013 mode they should do that, if they are in another rebuild on the fly but stay competitive mode, then just keep as is (with Reynolds) and roll the dice.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Oct 29, 2012 -> 08:31 AM) Yes. Though, now that I think about it... if the amount of money is going to be basically the same for ALL teams, then this actually benefits the smaller market teams more than the larger market teams. $50M a year for the Royals is like doubling their payroll. For the Yankees, its nice, but not a huge difference maker. Some teams don't spend, they are in business for profit not championships. Pirates and Marlins ownership comes to mind. Both have been accused of pocketing or hoarding significant portions of revenue sharing dollars. Loria was even forced by MLB in 2010 to sign a waiver that stated he could no longer hoard revenue share dollars and had to invest them in player/stadium/team operations. The Pirates have been accused of similar actions by media and fans alike. In my opinion b/c the teams weren't forced to spend, no salary floor, no enforcement to spend the revenue share money, some teams didn't.

We all know the Sox have been interested in signing Youkilis for 3B since the offseason began, but with both the Phillies and now the Yankees also looking for the best available 3B, and seemingly having more spending power in the free agent market, it doesnt appear likely the Sox can sign Youkilis, at least without a correpsonmding salary dump trade. We all know the 3B FA pool is thing behind Youk, its ripe with agining unproductive vets such as Eric Chavez, Chone Figgins, Mark DeRosa, Brandon Inge, Orlando Hudson, Scott Rolen, Placido Polanco, etc etc. The best alternative seems to be the recently DFA'd Mark Reynolds. While Reynolds definitely does not aid the White Sox biggest offensive deficiency, team OBP, he does provide significant offensive value. We all know he can't hit for average, has tremendous power, and plays a meh average 3B at best, but he would be a considerable upgrade to other internal or external options (listed above). He does own a career slash line of .235/.332/.475/.807 with 34HR and 95 RBI. He's a positive WAR player and holds a career wOBA of .335 which is pretty decent, both would help this team fill that 3B hole. His career ISO of .240 is solid, adding significant power to the lineup, but whats even better is that in a very fly ball friendly park, hes is a predominately fly ball hitter. He is a 47% FB hitter with a career 20.6 HR/FB %, both numbers would probably inflate some at USCF, though most likely at the cost of his already meager .221 BA. Nonetheless, I dont think he is a bad player to call "Plan B" for our 3B hole behind Youkilis. I still think the Phillies or Yankees will give Youkilis either three years and/or $10M+ in annual salary. A figure I dont think he is worth at all. Reynolds had his $11M option declined and through arbitration MLBTR predicted a $8.9M salary for 2013. I wouldnt mind one year of Reynolds at that price for a year.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 1, 2012 -> 05:30 PM) It is amazing how much better Floyd is thought of around here 2 months after he has pitched. While he was pitching, there were very few who thought he was worth his option. They aren't going to get much for Floyd, and if the guys you mention are just as good as Floyd why would other teams not just sign them instead of giving up talent to pay Gavin more money? There are many teams that may view the risk differently. Floyd is more proven, pitches in the AL, and posts respectable numbers. Since we watch all of his 30+ starts per year we view him as a jeckly and hyde type laborious pitcher who we have probably seen the best of already. In the eyes of the Angels, Mariners, Dodgers, Brewers, Braves is Floyd a more attractive option for a season than Karstens, Jurrjens, or Lannan?

The prospect of trading Floyd looks better and better now after the non-tender deadline. If we can trade him and get a couple of above average prospects and save the $9.5 to be allocated elsewhere I would be thrilled. Look at these various SP that were just non-tendered that could provide similar if not possibly better overall performance than Gavin; Jair Jurrjens, Jeff Karstens, John Lannan, Mike Pelfrey. Those guys aren't anything more than #4 or #5 starters on any team, but neither is Gavin. To get some 4.5ish ERA from one of those guys for close to 200IP at a fraction of the $9.5M Gavin is going to get to produce similar numbers would be a good move IMO. Tommy Hanson and his 2012 4.48 ERA was just traded for Jordan Walden, so Gavin has to have some value.

Listen I like Sale, I like him a lot. But I am not ready to call him an Ace just yet. I know 2012 was his first full season as a starter, but he needs to show me he can be as effective in the 2nd half of the season as he was in the first. His Aug/Sept combined numbers of 5-5 over 68IP with a 3.83 ERA and 1.34 WHIP tell me that he has a lot to prove before being labeled an "ace".

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 16, 2012 -> 12:23 PM) What other options are there? Im not trying to argue that he isn't the best available option for this team. He may very well be, especially if the other options are Morel, Hudson, or Viciedo. All would be downgrades, can any of those three even produce a .745 OPS or an OPS+ of 106. Probably not, but at the same time I wouldn't value Youkilis anywhere near the 3 Year and $30M level that some are predicting he will get. And for the record if the Phillies are gonna give 3/27 to Polanco, they are gonna give 3/27 (at least) to Youkilis. A players value is IMO his value against the other 750 players in the league, not his value against your 25 man roster.

Found this on reddit.com/r/baseball. Theedjus says: "WAR only rounds to one decimal, so since 1871 there are 306 players who have had a full-season WAR between -0.1 and 0.1, of whom 104 had exactly zero.The problem with the above method is that it might include replacement-level players, but it might also include someone who is an excellent fielder but a poor hitter, or vice versa. You're usually OK with having a guy like Brendan Ryan (great glove, no bat) and you can always stash a crappy fielder at DH and hide his s***ty glove. So the above method might end up yielding players who are overall replaceable, but who might nevertheless have some valuable skill that makes them, in fact, better than replacement level. Another way of looking at it might be to try and find a player who played a full season, and had an rField AND an rBatting (the component parts of WAR) of exactly 0. There have been 43 players to qualify for the batting title and accomplish this feat. In 2012, Kevin Youkilis was able to accomplish this! He put up a .745 OPS with 19 home runs, splitting time between 3rd and 1st. Previous players to accomplish the double zeroes include Pablo Sandoval in 2010, David Ortiz in 2009 (though all DH's have an rfield of 0), and then Adrian Beltre and Jose Cruz Jr. in 2002. And how about finding out who baseball's most statistically average player was this year? I'm thinking it's gonna be a guy with an OPS+ of 100 and an rField close to 0 (rField actually uses average fielders and not replacement as the baseline). The winner again is Kevin Youkilis, who had an OPS+ of 99 (meaning roughly he was 99% as good as the average player of his year-league, after adjusting for ballpark) and the rField of 0.

Wow, looks like someone "got the memo"!

The Sox biggest offensive problem as Joe Sheehan pointed out numerous times is that they are a team with decent power, but no team OBP. So when the cold stretches come you get what you saw the last 20 games or so. A bunch of games with 1 or 2 runs on 6 hits. They can't produce enough baserunners naturally, which is why when stuff went bad in Sept you saw RV press, and do things he hadn't done all year before....such as playing every inning with a baserunner for 1 run, sac bunts, straight steals, and hit and runs with power hitters coming up. The needs to focus on team OBP. They are basically set at LF, CF, RF, SS, 2B, 1B, and DH. So they would be wise to focus on getting the best OBP they can out of their opening at 3B and C. Whether that combo of players is in house, via trade, or via free agency, well thats Hahn's job now, but thats the strategy I would hope the Sox take from an offensive perspective.

3B Free agent list is super thin. I dont want any of these bums. Miguel Cairo (39) Eric Chavez (35) Mark DeRosa (38) Alberto Gonzalez (30) Orlando Hudson (35) Brandon Inge (36) Maicer Izturis (32) Adam Kennedy (37) Jeff Keppinger (33) Jose Lopez (29) Casey McGehee (30) Placido Polanco (37) Scott Rolen (38) Drew Sutton (30) Ty Wigginton (35) Kevin Youkilis (34)Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/04/2013...YyvrzzKYs5By.99

Thrown out some age old ballpark classic promotions. $1 dog day (and don't make it pre-game only). How about turn back the clock day, all food prices goo back to what they were when the park opening in 1991. Id like to see more promotions to get regular old people into unused premium seats. How about random drawings or random sox people grab ppl with crap UD tickets and park a family or two, or some out of towners in the scout seats or those goldcoast tickets section. Discount the club level tickets that are down the line more, give a few lucky people the opportunity to enjoy the club level for $20 that aren't the best seats in the house. Get some food vendors/trucks on the streets or parking lots after the game for ppl to grab something on their way out of the area, this would also create a bit more hangout and ppl still around the park after the game.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Oct 15, 2012 -> 07:16 AM) That's how I thought it would work, that the pricing would fluctuate depending on the demand. Obviously that wasn't the case, judging by all the empty seats at the Cubs & Yankees series, while the prices stayed high up to first pitch. You would think right. Dyanmic pricing should lower prices when they are more tickets available and keep lowering them as it gets closer to gametime to try and move the supply curve down towards an intersection point with demand. In theory dynamic pricing should do both, benefit the consumer with lower prices (compared to box office price) and offer the supplier a vehicle to move his product, albeit for a less than "retail price" to a point where consumer demand and supplier supply meet each other for that specific game. It doesnt work if its not truly dynamic or on demand, like if the system has floors/ceilings and thresholds galore than whats the point (supply demand curves are based on free markets), Im just speculation that though.

I honestly wouldn't mess with the price of tickets. I think they do a good job at selling their product as premium that attracts a certain buyer and a certain fanbase. I think its very important to the Sox to appeal to people who feel like there are premium options, they are buying a premium ticket, and enjoying a premium entertainment experience. The reason I believe so is b/c they know at $15 per ticket or $30 per ticket they prolly are going to have average to below average attendance. And the marginal benefit they get from $15 tickets isn't worth offsetting the atmosphere they want to sell to. They keep things of quality and premium so they can extract the most revenue from sponsors, advertisers, corporate partners, corporate outings, etc etc. With proverbial low attendance they must create high and consistent revenue streams elsewhere. Also I have heard from the mouth of Brooks Boyer another reason every seat isnt $15 all the time is they want to maintain a certain in ballpark atmosphere. Basically they don't want to appeal to drunks, college kids, lower income (trashy) families to fill their park. All that being said I think if they lowered parking prices to near $15-$17 they would attract more suburbanites and families, which is a good demographic to attract.

Nothing, veteran (power) hitters tend to wear down a bit in the 2nd half. Teams that rely on veteran sluggers for run production tend to fall off during the dog days and into September. Here is Konerko's 1st half and 2nd half splits the last few years. And I think the splits are only gonna get more drastic as he ages. 2012 Pre All Star: .329/.404/.528/.932 2012 Post All Star: .263/.333/.437/.771 2011 Pre All Star: .319/.390/.564/.954 2011 Post All Star: .272/.386/.447/.833 2010 Pre All Star: .299/.382/.560/.942 2010 Post All Star: .327/.406/.611/1.017 2009 Pre All Star: .302/.355/.514/.870 2009 Post All Star: .243/.349/.455/.804

QUOTE (kitekrazy @ Sep 30, 2012 -> 11:51 AM) It happens. I think the casual fan could see this coming since they are not as emotionally involved and history says post ASB choke. I think thats a scenario that happens on the order of the 5% realm. And most likely there was something great about those teams, like they had they best three pitchers, all lights out, going in 3 of the final 4 games and were able to re-capture the lead. This team isn't built that way, there is a reason 14 games over was their high water mark, and there is a reason they couldn't put more than 3 games of separation between them and DET over the last 2 months. Basically they dont have any dominant pitching or dominant bullpen to anchor the team during the fluctuations in run scoring. And yes Chris Sale included, b/c as expected he wore down once he hit around 120IP in early August. Since Aug 1 hes 5-5 with a 3.83 ERA and .270 BAA. Not dominant at all.