Look at Ray Ray Run

Lance Lynn is an upgrade for next year; a substantial one over the uncertainty they still had in their youthful rotation. Lynn is a horse - both in size and durability, he could wear Bartolo Colon as a backpack and still throw 200 innings. There are positives about Lynn, as has been recently documented he added a cutter which enabled him to find much success following a season in which his career looked like it might be coming to a close. He has the chance of being a top tier pitcher, even if I wouldn't be shocked to see him fall back into the 3-4 fWAR range - which would still be a substantial upgrade. Last season, Lynn was good, but not as great as he had been the year prior; his FIP trickled over 4, but that was driven heavily by a very poor last start. Lynn will also be 34 years old, but he strikes me as a pitcher who is more likely than not to be durable and age as gracefully as his body jiggles when he delivers a pitch to home. The problem with Lynn isn't the player - who is a clear upgrade - but the process by which the Sox are moving towards their competitive window. Rick Hahn told us for the past four years that when the window was open, the White Sox would have no interest in trading assets for Rentals. They would fill the gaps with their financial flexibility; utilizing the fact that they had not spent money for the past six years, flush with cash, the White Sox would fill their remaining holes with financial investments in FA or, as I assumed, by absorbing big money contracts to limit any return they'd have to give in trades. There were pieces out there that met this claim; a Darvish/Heyward package almost seemed like a perfect fit for a team that needed a defensive RF who could swing a little, and a rotation anchor. The White Sox instead traded for a pitcher not just because he was good, but also because he was cheap - make no mistake about it, the 8 million dollar price tag was every bit as enticing as his production that came along with it. The White Sox could have absorbed salary from multiple franchises to take on a high quality SP without surrendering a viable asset, but instead they went the route of doing exactly what they promised they wouldn't; trading a viable asset for a one year rental at the beginning of the window. Don't blame the fans for trusting the word of their FO; "THE MONEY WILL BE SPENT" Kenny Williams embarrassingly claimed following the White Sox falling out with Manny Machado. The window is open, and the White Sox are continuing to operate like a small market team. Following the Lynn trade, and barring an unforeseen signing of someone like Springer (which is not happening), the White Sox are selling their fans on being all-in next year... and their payroll likely won't be in the top 10 in all of baseball. That's like screaming "I'm all in" at a poker table, when you have only 3 dollars left at a $1/$2 table. Dane Dunning was a nice piece, but I think Sox fans enjoyed him much more due to the pitchers around him. Dane threw strikes, while other young arms - namely Cease - struggled significantly to do so. As a fan, strikes are enjoyable but the Sox also could not have sold higher on Dane. Coming off Tommy John and turning 27 next year, Dunning was likely nearing a finished product. He also was sheltered by the White Sox last year; making 5 of his 8 starts worse one of the five worst offenses in MLB. Could he continue in a long line of recent arms who greatly exceeded expectations due to elite command? Sure, he absolutely could... but he could also be out of baseball in two years. Pitching is hard, and pitchers always have an edge when they are unknown. I have always said a key to a good rebuild is trading away the assets you know the industry overvalues; only time will tell if the White Sox chose the right starter to move. The White Sox are definitely better going into next year by a good bit; they needed a horse and durable arm to throw out there and they got exactly that. The problem isn't the player, but it's that we all trusted the process and the process turned out to be one Lance Lynn sized pile of shit sold by a cheap ownership group who had no intention on ever repaying the fans for the misery they were put through by not even trying to put a viable MLB product on the field.

Jack, I dont think you understand. Lopez was allowed to accumulate that number because his team wasn't trying and didn't care how bad he had been. Lopez was the worst or second worst qualified starter in baseball over that time period. Hes not an example of a typical 6 fWAR player. Lopez would not accumulate that number for any decent team.

No, it's not very conservative. Dunning expected career WAR is probably around 6-8.

Lol the most epic collapse to not win a league maybe in fantasy history. Biggest lead and meltdown I've ever seen. It was painful

He also had a 4.34 xFIP.

My last piece on the deal. The frustration for me is the Sox are now all in next year - you dont trade for a rental if you aren't. Yet after FA they're payroll will likely rank outside the top 10 in baseball. It's honestly a joke at this point. They just won't spend.

Dunning faced the Royals 13 times in 7 starts which helps a bit.

Yeah, I have no issues dealing dunning I just wanted years back.

I can't keep up, so Lynn's playoff appearances don't count and are small samples but Dunning proved he sucked because he didn't dominate an elimination game where his manager practically told him he was bad and couldn't do it before anything even happened.

Lol so wait, his rookie year playoff appearance means he sucks but Lance Lynn career 4.8 ERA and 1.6 WHIP in 54 post season innings makes him a reliable post season stopper lol

There is absolutely something special about him if he can actually command 4 pitches with average stuff. Hard to say if that's real given his competition last year.

He also faced No one as the sox protected him. I like command pitchers, especially guys who can command 4 of them. I think its the most underrated quality of a SP in scouting circles currently.

Well, here's to hoping things go well next year. I won't like this off season regardless it seems, but thems the breaks as a Sox fan.

I dont use baseball reference war for pitchers. I use it for position players and I use fWAR for pitchers as its more predictive. I've made that pretty clear nearly every time I've cited the stat. In the 5 years prior he had a 10.8 fWAar not 5.5.

It seems you are. You keep calling a guy with one great year in his career an ace. The rest of his career he's been a nice #3 who certainly wasn't carrying anyone in the playoffs with his 4.8 ERA.

Shelby Miller wants his career back.

Keep kicking that can down the road.

Kill. Me. Now. La russa making calls. Lynn will be trash and Dunning a Cy winner now.

Sky not falling but its not a great move by any means and has far too much risk for where they are currently.

His career high fWAR before the last full rangers season was 3.6. Why are you citing his ERA? Their careers WAR before their cy young seasons were nearly identical. What are you talking about exactly? It's a great comparison. I dont trust cutter longevity at all. Many cases of guys not maintaining it for extended periods.

Lance lynn has thrown 54 post season innings and has a 4.8 ERA, and a 1.6 WHIP. A true post season stopper.

People calling him a bona-fide ace have lost their damn minds. Lance lynn has had one season in his career with an fWAR over 3.6. He had one great year in Texas after finding a cutter. There are a lot of examples of that not sustaining itself. One white sox fans are familiar with is Esteban Loiaza.

Mainly because he's a rental and will be 34 going into next year. One plus is he's pitching for his last contract. I'm also just not a big fan of Lynn. He's a horse though and they needed one. Marquez, Darvish, Snell and Gray had years and youth. I absolutely hate trading a viable MLB asset for a one year rental. Next off season we're literally worse off with an owner who won't spend on pitching. Trying to plug a hole year after year this way just isn't a recipe for success.

Of all the pitchers they were rumored to be in on, this is the worst get of them all.

Cool, and I'm sure dunning will never be that in 6 years and the sox can only win next year... so good point all around.