I wanted to put down some thoughts, if you scroll down you see the bolded indicate guys who were drafted since 2016 who made the majors. To avoid quibbling - that is actually a big feat. This review is EARLY, and we will see the full impact. But as of now, we are seeing a number of players contribute on a division contending team with two weeks to go.
My initial take on Hostetler drafts:
I was very negative on this era. I hated the lack of athleticism drafted overall. It was way too college heavy and lacked upside. For years, we saw our only top 100 representatives being our trade acquisitions or top 5 picks who automatically slate there.
His line that he was looking to build up system depth annoyed be since for years he emphasized that he only cared about BPA, which seemed like a contradiction. And my belief was that trying to be safer and build "depth" just meant you were getting guys that were hitting their ceilings in AA instead of the possibility of fizzling out in low-a - which can happen with younger, higher upside picks.
It's time to revise that opinion.
A look on his drafts (1-10 only just for brevity, though I'll point out guys that made it after like Mendick)
2016 (in order from rounds 1-10)
Zach Collins, Zack Burdi, Alec Hansen, Alex Call, Jameson Fisher, Jimmy Lambert, Luis Corbelo, Bernardo Flores, Nate Nolan, Zach Remillard
Later picks that made it: Ian Hamilton (11), Matt Foster (20) (edit: hat tip to Y2Jimmy!)
2017 (worst draft by far)
Jake Burger, Gavin Sheets, Luis Gonzalez, Lincoln Henzman, Tyler Johnson, Kade McClure, Evan Skoug, Sam Abbot, Craig Dedelow, JB Olson
2018
Nick Madrigal, Steele Walker, Konnor Pilkington, Lency Delgado, Jonathan Stiever, Codi Heuer, Cabera Weaver, Andrew Perez, Gunnar Troutwine, Bennet Sousa
2019
Andrew Vaughn (top 30 prospect), Matthew Thompson, Andrew Dalquist, James Beard, Dan Metzdorf, Avery Weems, Karen Patel, Ivan Gonzalez, Tyson Messer, Pawelczyk, Nate
4 drafts, 5 years ago:
11 major leaguers and almost certainly 12 (Vaughn).
That is depth.
The quibbles:
- Luis Gonzalez almost certainly a child of circumstance, but he made it to a level where it was possible. That's still good. Not always the case.
- The 2017 draft is just absolute trash.
- A lot of capital was spent on bullpen, and of Ian Hamilton, Johnson and Heuer, only heuer has really shown himself but he's been huge.
The still bad:
- His 2nd round picks and paying overslot for college juniors will just always baffle me.
Bottom line:
11 is a lot, and yes, he picked a lot. A team similar to us (top picks during the time and didn't get freebie balance picks) is the phillies, who have seen 6 during that time.
If Hostetler set out to get depth, it appears he did that, and it paid off at the right time in supplementing the sox during a year of competition and high injuries.
I am still a bigger fan of Shirley's style, and think the higher upside picks will be more valuable as trade currency if not impact starters. But the emergence of Stiever, what Lambert showed, and Heuer have made me really reverse myself on how hostetler performed. I'm not going to say he was amazing - he did have tremendous draft resources! - but it was a much better record than I realized in the later rounds in the draft.
And a poster whose name I don't remember pointed out that I was wrong, and he was right, so sorry to that guy if you read this.