chitownsportsfan

QUOTE (flavum @ Mar 5, 2015 -> 01:50 PM) Post of the Day Yea I was gonna say that's like a 2.5 or 3.5 WAR season depending on his defense. Personally I think Avi is going to have a solid year, but a 2.5 WAR season from him guarantees nothing really. It certainly helps but Sox need more production from more spots for a division title.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 28, 2015 -> 07:31 AM) If I made a 2 year projection at the beginning, I would agree, but year to year with teams that change, to say spot on is silly. Once you are innaccurate, to look spot on, you can't get more accurate, but be innaccurate some more. The projections are fun to look at, and brings up discussion, but to say they are accurate isn't right. It is OK advanced stats is no more accurate in telling you how a season will unfold, than any ither way. If you knew, it would be boring. Who do you think is the best player in baseball and the 2nd best?

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Mar 5, 2015 -> 01:10 AM) So what happens when Micah wins the job? They gain it back on offense, duh. [/micahsupportersunnysideupbot] Seriously though I think I'm coming around on Micah. Narrative is reality at times. The guy seems to have "it" whatever that means. Of course, every other guy out there was the big dick in hs and college and usually the minors so that ain't worth much. Question is, can he field his position? If he can, and the Sox are convinced, cool, Sanchez starts on Sale and Danks days . Only action Beckham ever sees is hitting fungoes after being cut and becoming the "assistant to the manager".

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 18, 2015 -> 11:32 AM) Cabrera's past hangs over him, and rightfully so. If he didn't have that history, he would have gotten a deal similar to Panda this year, maybe more. I like that comparison. Pablo's clearly the better player at a more premium position but his deal has zero upside. At best he's worth his contract. Personally I think there's a fat chance of that happening. Melky only needs to about 5 war in his contract to make it worth it for the Sox. Melky is a good player he's not the same guy he was in NY at the dish anymore. Maybeyou can say that's due to PEDs but I saw the guy make one of the more bone headed mental gaffes a ballplayer will ever make (missed a ball tipping his cap to the intros at yankee stadium about 20 feet in front of us back in 2009) and it's clear he had a lot of mental growing up to do on and off the field . When you break into the Bronx at 20, a full time starter at 21, it can go to your head. Something clicked with the guy a few years ago and I think he's going to produce about 6 WAR in three years. A lot depends on his defense but in the smallish LF of the Cell I can't imagine he'll have much trouble. PEDs or not, the guy keeps himself in great shape and at 29 hard to imagine he'll decline too much athletically in three years. Injury could happen, and he does have some history there (the tumor thing wtf) so as with anything hope for health.

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Mar 4, 2015 -> 11:09 PM) No errors today. Hopefully we see improved defense this year compared to last. The more I think about this team the more I like it. They also replaced Dunn and Viciedo with Melky and La Roche, that's good for 5-8 runs saved right there (including La Roche taking 30 starts away from Jose as well, which is a good thing all around) and then you add in the possibility of Sanchez at 2B and they could easily be 1-2 wins better defensively. One thing Hahn did, he didn't just add to the team, he added almost perfectly at the margins. Bullpen, Defense, Base Running were this team's bugaboos last year. For once it wasn't getting on base. Fix a couple of those areas, improve a little more on offense, and there's your 88 wins and a division title or wild card. Not saying they are going to win 88 but they certainly have a chance. I think the over under is 82-84 but once in awhile this team could peak out at 88-90. And bottom to 78-80 of course. Let's hope for health and the new additions to contribute.

QUOTE (LDF @ Mar 4, 2015 -> 09:45 PM) but isn't that like his SOP. gets in a little trouble every once in a while and pitches himself out of the jam without little of no damaging effect. i may be wrong here. but i am stoke for him. So Garcia look really good with the bat today, and by what i was reading, it appears as the sox runners were taking that other base when they had the chance. niccceeeee i love it. It's nice to actually have a few guys that can take an extra base. As I said in another thread, simply removing the slugs (Dayan, Kong, Dunn) is going to lead to more runs. Those three guys are possibly three of the slowest 20 runners in all of MLB. Having them all on the team was a big detriment to any sort of overall baserunning prowess.

QUOTE (Blackout Friday @ Mar 4, 2015 -> 06:20 PM) See BS, Chicago! I had to. It was in the spirit of Lionel Hutz. No, money down! He can change his approach all he wants his swing is fundamentally broken. Beckham has one of the longest swings in MLB. The next inside fastball he turns on will be the first of his career. Maybe 2nd. He also generates very little bat speed for such a long swing. I think at this point the success of his rookie year was him guessing fastball time and time again and with no scouting report on him he was able to take quite a few into the gap in right. He should probably just go back to being a complete guess hitter. Might run into one from time to time. He has no plate coverage either, that's another problem. Unless it's in his incredibly small wheelhouse (out over the plate and slightly down) he isn't going to do s*** with it. Look at this heat map: http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/hotzones/_/i.../gordon-beckham pathetic. It's f***ing sad he's back. Reminds me of Hinrich coming back to the Bulls. Why can't we quit these guys?

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Mar 4, 2015 -> 12:18 AM) You are basing things off dumb projections? Why are you a Micah hater? Everyone, including ZIPS (the machine that it is) saw Sanchez last year. Isn't likely to hit much more than 250/290/350 but he's a slick glove guy metrics and scouts both saw that. We saw it, dude has serious range and a solid arm at 2B. Micah is likely to be a poor fielder even if he's better offensively. I don't like that trade off on this team.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Mar 3, 2015 -> 10:01 PM) Not stealing 125 bags last season... 2015 ZiPS 119 544 8 58 44 31 5.9 % 18.9 % .104 .302 .253 .299 .357 .292 82 -1.1 -12.0 -1.0 WAR:0.5 2015 ZiPS 135 582 6 57 44 15 5.3 % 17.9 % .086 .301 .253 .297 .340 .284 76 0.2 -15.0 8.1 WAR: 1.3 You guess who's who and whose side I'm on. Sox need defense more than stolen bases. Sanchez is the obvious, save choice for a team that thinks they are contending. Let Micah bang the wall down in AAA by going 300/380/500 through June with 30 SB. If that happens and Sanchez is no great shakes then yea, f***ing promote the dude. I'm not even saying ZIPS is better than the Sox' judgement if they think he's the man than fine. Just don't do it on 80 or so almost meaningless spring PA.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Mar 3, 2015 -> 11:40 PM) Because there isn't any doubt. It's just "we need real baseball so we need something to talk about" filler. Can't wait for tomorrow. lol well put. We are on the precipice. The only part of spring I really pay attention to -- the first couple weeks -- is finally starting. At least we'll have semi real games to talk about. By the time March 20th rolls around or so however I'm tuned out. I strangely enjoy the WBC, probably because it's real baseball a month ahead of time.

I'm the straw the stirs the drink Just kidding this place has a lot of great posters and doesn't tend towards groupthink. It's why I post here now instead of SSS. I'm a Micah hater, it's what I do, until he hits 260/310/400 with 50 of 65 in SB and plays run neutral defense for 150 games at 2B I'm gonna stay on that hate parade. I hope to hell he proves me wrong as a Sox team with a 2-3 WAR 2B in 2015 is a division contender no doubt. Sanchez's ceiling this year is like 1 WAR, Beckham's is like .5 WAR so yea. It would be nice if someone steps up when it counts, not just in spring.

Oh good I see the fans are ready to appoint starters based on spring training results. That always works well. I just hope Robin realizes that spring training numbers have zero correlation to the regular season. Here's a thought experiment, if Beckham hits 350 with 5 homers in the spring and Micah only hits 300 with 2 steals, you gonna give the job to Beckham on the results right? If you want to apply the "Micah earned the start" rule for him, you might as well apply it to Beckham. Point is neither guy has much of a chance to slash better than 250/300/400 no matter what their spring numbers are. Pitchers don't take the spring numbers seriously and it results in incredibly skewed results for hitters. Yea I'm happy Micah is doing well but pump the damn breaks. Remember Jerrod Mitchell's nice spring? Yea.

After watching some of Jose last year in spring he seems pretty content to take pitches and swing once and awhile aiming opposite field. Don't think he really considers it anything more than a tuneup, and well he should.

also, as Sox: Dunn: -1.2 fWAR Pierre: 1.5 fWAR The version of Pierre the Sox got the first year they had him was a better player than Dunn as a Sox without a doubt.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 2, 2015 -> 02:39 PM) I think it'll depend on how long Sale is actually out. If they just have to skip him once and then he makes the next start, they'll set their rotation as though he would be there so that he can just step in. If he's out longer, they might do something different in order to limit the outings on whoever they bring up in his place. I think he misses one start and with the off days they should be covered. s***ty way to start the season but not that big of a deal long term. Say moderate case he's throwing long toss on march 23rd, does a bullpen session say on the 26th, and then makes two starts in extended spring ball he should be ready to go around April 8th. Of course, if the foot doesn't heal as expected, push that back another couple weeks. But I really do think there is a chance he only misses one start. The foot isn't really broken it's more like a ligament strain from my understanding the bone "breaks" when the ligament gets pulled off the bone. I think worst case he's off the rubber for 4 weeks. Even then he should only miss a handful of starts at most.

Sounds like he jumped out the back of his pickup. Dagnabitt.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Feb 27, 2015 -> 11:16 PM) Lip service. I expect improved technique but not overall more attempts. I just want the Sox to become better overall at baserunning. The turn at 1st, going 1st to 3rd, knowing when to advance and finding the ball etc. Actually, this could be a very under rated improvement from the Sox. Getting rid of so many slugs like Dayan, Dunn and Paulie might result in a few more extended rallies.

QUOTE (asindc @ Feb 27, 2015 -> 01:54 PM) I think so. As a fan of the Sox, I would love to see the Sox adopt a more proactive approach to baserunning. The general approach to baserunning around baseball has become more passive in the last 20 years or so, especially more emphasis on advanced stats that seem skewed towards power hitting. An example of something that really needs to be improved upon IMO is sending a running home with 2 outs. Obviously, no one is sending Paulie unless the ball is on the warning track, but most guys can go for it. Otherwise, if the runner is held up on 3rd with 2 outs there is less than a 40% chance he will score. I would like to see some statistic analysis that addresses my hunch, which is that I think the average runner has a better than 40% chance of scoring if sent. I like your style keep posting. And I agree on your point. With 2 outs, I'm sending most guys, most of the time. Even with a great hitter like Jose up next the odds he gets him in or a wild pitch aren't better than 50%.

fair enough. I'm convinced the org likes him. I hope he produces. 2B is by far the team's weakest position. For once, they only have obvious 2-3 holes instead of 4-5 rosterwise and the most obvious is 2B. It will be an interesting camp.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 26, 2015 -> 03:07 PM) The hype is not many guys have the 80 speed he has. Remember, he was the 2nd leading base stealer in all of the minors in 2013 behind only Billy Hamilton. You can't teach that. Speed like that changes games. Too bad they aren't fielding a track team. Seriously though, he's gotta translate that speed to production. AAA is the place to start proving it. Hamilton also plays a a solid CF, something Micah hasn't proven he can do at 2B.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 26, 2015 -> 02:47 PM) Scott Merkin, the Sox MLB.com beat writer and a good barometer of how the team sees guys, wrote a full article in the fall predicated on the idea of him being the guy but Johnson not wanting to take if for granted. Bruce Levine (whom I dislike as a writer but he's close to the teams) specifically said that management sees him as the guy. Then there are the facts other have said - he was hinted as a September call-up last year, for example. It's been pretty obvious for a while they see him as the guy, either now or very soon. Thanks for this. If you ever read Larry on SSS I'm the exact same way on Micah. I don't see the hype and I guess I don't see why the hell the Sox do. I mean, WTF has he done other than put together 200 nice PA in high A ball? He hasn't even STAYED HEALTHY in for a full season yet. FFS, back the hype train up on this guy. The Sox can totally carry Sanchez' 240/280/330 if he's 10 runs above average at 2B, and I think he is. Micah won't hit much more than that and he might be -20 runs at 2B. Put him AAA, wtf is the rush.

I'm looking for the PRIMARY SOURCE on this Micah hype. Like, Rick Hahn saying "we think he's the 2B of the future". FFS someone, post it please and I will shut up about it. I'm so sick of the Micah hype, it's like officially a thing and I'm not sure how the hell it ever got to be a thing.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Feb 26, 2015 -> 02:18 PM) I've seen "The Sox want Micah to win the job" an awful lot in the last few months and I'm curious what is making people say that so often. Is there something specific you can point to? Just that's he the better prospect and they want all the better prospects to do well? I think I have an idea but I want to hear what people say first. No kidding. Repeat it enough and I guess it becomes a fact. I've seen NOTHING from the Sox that indicates they think Micah is anything other than a future utility guy.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 25, 2015 -> 09:49 PM) It's a lot more about technique and reading the pitcher at the big league level. In the minors, pure speed, pitchers not holding runners and just poor fundamental throwing mechanics from catchers are the main culprits. Actually, Micah had a technique thing going, but it was felt by most scouts that it wouldn't work at higher levels and that he would have to make adjustments in his approach to be effective. Right, the Sox have plenty of fast guys at this point, question is, do they have any base stealers? Hopefully Vince can help out. I stole hundreds with him on RBI baseball.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Feb 24, 2015 -> 10:02 PM) Was rehabbing the back injury last year and went down for Tommy John Surgery after tearing UCL in his elbow, good chance it was due in part to extra stress during the back injury rehab. wow totally missed that. Ugh, hate to see that. Thanks for the info. Wish him well he should make a full recovery but for a young athlete like that it had to have been a tough blow.