Balta1701

Abso-freaking-lutely. Go look at the box score for that Red Sox/Astros series. I bet you can pick the games out.

If that happens, then MLB gets talked about on sports radio more, people reference the Cardinals all the time, and so on. That's not a disaster for MLB. Win your bloody division, I have no problem with that being a straightforward path to the playoffs.

We should also keep in mind that the ball almost certainly played a role in that.

I'm not rewriting it but here's the list of managerial disasters your memory edited out from that series.

He's never been a clearly above average defender, he's just about adequate. Maybe a smidge below average earlier in his career but that was when he was dealing with the Monster. He's not likely to be substantially above average. He has a .351 career OBP, but it has bounced between .324 in 2021 and .373 last year depending on his approach at the plate and BABIP. Steamer projection has him at .335 next year. Both of those would be significant boosts for the White Sox out of their OF, but both of those would miss what you just requested.

They had according to FG the best pitching staff in baseball. That always counts for something. Since then they let their best pitcher walk as a free agent, one guy got old/had a knee break down, their most effective reliever got a little less effective, and Giolito had whatever the hell that was. Big difference.

The 2021 Astros were beatable enough that the Braves beat them. We had a serious lineup weakness in that they could throw righties against us to beat the White Sox’s righties, but that team was beatable. From there they added Verlander and upgraded their bullpen, plus Javier and Valdez grew up into stars, so yeah in 2022 they were just better.

It’s worth remembering how bad the free agent market typically is for building a team. I haven’t done the exercise recently but the last time the White Sox were trying to compete, something like 60-75% of the free agent contracts signed that year looked bad one offseason later. The last team I recall that did a spending spree and actually won a title immediately was the 09 Yankees. Big names in their late 20s and early to mid 30s have way more problems of injury and struggling than what we think.

Their bullpen fWAR was 8th best.

I don’t know how you use the word “conservatively” there. That projection has their bullpen as substantially better than last year. Bummer is better, Joe Kelly is substantially better. Lopez is ok, not as good as last year. No one is terrible, like several guys were last year. Everyone is healthy and more consistent. It is certainly possible with the amount of money put into it, but it’s also extremely optimistic to think that they’re way better than they were last year with the same guys a year older.

Someone said somewhere to evaluate why this leaked in a couple places today. My guess? The discussion was legit, the Mets knew they wanted another reliever. If the Mets leaked it, they had already talked to the White Sox and the White Sox's price was something the Mets wouldn't pay. They leaked it so that the White Sox would guess the Mets were close to moving on if the Sox didn't drop their price, and the Mets moved on to Ottavino.

Anticipating this is why I went through the full details in that big post on the previous page now. It turns out that almost to a man, ZiPS already projects they substantially outperform what they did last year. They don't project complete health, but everyone who got hurt last year is projected to be healthier and perform better this year, save Eloy who was projected to be healthier but not as good with the bat. Vaughn is projected to be better than he's ever been by quite a bit. Grandal is supposed to be back to being a solid catcher. Moncada is a quality bat at 3b and stays healthier. Anderson is healthier. Robert not only stays healthier (not fully healthy) but he's back to being a solid defender and his offense is back where it was without any wrist injury. The only 2 notable guys who have a worse projection than last year are Cease and Zavala. Cease probably has a solid chance of outperforming that projection by a win or so, it gave him some skepticism since it was a breakout year for him. Zavala probably nearly the offensive catcher we saw last year. There's room for improvement, particularly on the part of Colas, but you really are into "Everything must go right" territory to get there.

Personally I'd say it as "If there is really a zero % chance of Grandal being a tolerable player next year because his back is toast, that makes it even harder for the White Sox to have a conceivable route to compete with the Guardians let alone the Astros and the NL East, and that makes a strategy of signing guys to anything other than 1 year deals look far worse."

If he truly has several displaced disks in his back and a surgery recommendation, I think I have to change my mind and assume that he's not going to be able to play, at least in lineup construction. It might well be more important to have an additional catcher who can be on the roster in April and potentially last the whole year in that case, as there's a good chance that any amount of physical conditioning might not be enough.

No, you should have assumed that Grandal will continue to have issues because a couple of weeks is not enough time to rehab "several bulging disks in your back where doctors have suggested surgery" and playing through that effectively was simply not feasible. You can also ignore much of his previous history because it was unlikely that he has played the last 8 years with that problem while ignoring repeated suggestions that surgery might be required. It's like asking a guy to swing a bat one handed, it's never going to work and anyone who thinks they can just do that by will is fooling themselves. Thankfully, we haven't seen anything that stupid in weeks. In both cases, the team training staff needs to stop the player even if they think they can go and work out a plan to get them much healthier and stronger before they should be allowed back onto a diamond.

Alvarez is the top overall prospect in baseball by MLB.com. There is zero situation where he's available for Hendriks alone, without someone like Robert or Cease being in the concept.

I could see that as being a match. However...please note that this is a substantial downgrade to the 2023 White Sox. IT is a player they could move elsewhere, but it's much more of a rebuilding type move, adding a catcher 2 or 3 years away.

Would they be willing to part with a guy who won't contribute this year? Sure, I can imagine that McCann + one of their 3/4/5 guys would be a deal they would consider. https://www.mlb.com/prospects/mets Are they parting with Baty if they think he's going to contribute this year? Probably a much higher requirement there.

Yes, and there's value in that. But the Mets are happy to dump money out if it makes them better, they haven't traded away any youth at all during this spending spree the last 2 years as far as I can tell.

And yet people think they can't possibly afford McCann and are desperate to move him.

They could certainly just buy out McCann if they had to get him off the roster. So there is benefit for them in sending McCann out, but if it makes their roster this year notably worse to get rid of him because they have to send out such a valuable prospect, they won't do it.

But at the same time - why would the Mets give up a young or controlled player that they think has a strong chance of contributing to their big league club this year? They sure wouldn't want to, that would be costly for them.

Not hugely. Futuresox didn't have Bassitt in their top 25 midseason in 2014 and that's when he was cracking into the big leagues. Here's a different scout who dropped him in at 15. https://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/3/2/5461844/chicago-white-sox-top-20-prospects-for-2014

"Cohen opens his checkbook"

Hell, if his option becomes guaranteed with a trade that would actually cut his luxury tax amount.