Balta1701

2 of my relatives on facebook.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Aug 24, 2010 -> 05:42 PM) Yeah, Jermaine Dye.

QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Aug 24, 2010 -> 05:39 PM) forget manny, go get Abreu 36 year old, .791 OPS this year, decreasing about .0.25 points per year for the last couple, owed another $10 million next year? I think we can do better than a .775ish OPS from a 37 year old with $10 million. (Oh, and i didn't note...a very Ozzie Guillen-team like 16/25 on stolen bases this season).

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 24, 2010 -> 05:36 PM) If there is deflation, you don't need inflation to have "increases" in wages. Its kinda like jobs "saved". They don't show up as new employment, but the floor being put in is what is significant. Then that breaks the connection between those actions and delaying the recovery. That's sorta the point...once there's deflation, if you don't hold wages up, they'll continue to deflate, and there's really no reason for it to stop because you don't have to invest to turn a profit, you just have to horde cash. Exactly as where we are now. However, if you artificially start inserting inflationary pressures in there, you start kicking the ball back in the other direction.

QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Aug 24, 2010 -> 05:24 PM) Agreed, however I do not understand, what are the Dodgers waiting for? First of all, they couldn't put ManRam on waivers until he was off the DL. Secondly...if they can get him in a game or two to prove he's healthy, it could increase the chances of someone actually claiming him. Third, they might not want to admit their season is over yet, we are all flat out guessing on their financial straits.

QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Aug 24, 2010 -> 05:21 PM) I see Dodgers just letting him go, as he already said this is his last season in LA. Manny won't be playing for the Dodgers in 2011. Dodgers being out of it do not need Manny Ramirez and his salary. KW won't give up prospect to get Manny, maybe a low level throw in, IMHO. The only way KW throws in a player is if the Dodgers throw in money. He'd be happy to claim him, and the Dodgers flat out don't want or need him right now. They need the $4 million more. If they're going to threaten to pull him back to get a legit player out of us, then we don't need him that badly.

QUOTE (bucket-of-suck @ Aug 24, 2010 -> 05:19 PM) So they give him away to be out from under $4M? Absolutely yes.

QUOTE (bucket-of-suck @ Aug 24, 2010 -> 05:20 PM) Manny wants out of LA so bad it's thought his trip to the DL was a team timeout chair. If that was true he'd have been off the DL 3 weeks ago.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 24, 2010 -> 05:10 PM) To be fair, that was the 2004 version, this is from the WSJ in 2009 http://online.wsj.com/article/NA_WSJ_PUB:S...6749137485.html That first post specifically dealt with their choice of data from their 2009 version. I think the strongest argument I read was that if you follow C&O's logic such that hiring was being depressed because wages were being artificially pushed too high, there should be either significant inflation or a monetary policy response to fight the inflation that wage controls should drive. Neither of those were observed throughout the 30's; inflationary pressures weren't there, because of the lower bound.

This is being discussed in the trade winds section and is no where near yet official.

I'm enjoying this IMF Paper counterpoint as well. Basically the point it comes to is that the Cole and Ohanian paper is wrong, and that as long as the desired interest rate is below the zero bound, inflationary policies will be strongly expansionary, but if you continue deficit spending once you reach a point that interest rates push upwards, that turns around and maintaining those deficits becomes contractionary.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 24, 2010 -> 04:50 PM) Unless you are in the camp that believes that FDR actually lengthened the Depression 7 years with his actions... http://newsroom.ucla.edu/portal/ucla/FDR-s...ssion-5409.aspx It is an interesting camp to be sure. I like the goalposts phrase in this response.

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Aug 24, 2010 -> 04:49 PM) Of course it declined since he paid for millions to work, but it actually rose again a few years after it was implemented. Without the war, who knows where it would have ended up. And it's worth noting that the rise was directly associated with cutbacks in those programs.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Aug 24, 2010 -> 02:27 PM) you should stop sending your "anonymous" complaint emails to the admin email then. We know its you. strngsox111@yahoo.com, strayndgesox@hotmail.com, strsox231@gmail stop trying to hide it Actually...one of those was me...

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Aug 24, 2010 -> 04:29 PM) I would think Kenny would tell Hawpe that we would make him an offer if we don't get Manny first. I would think the Rays would grab Hawpe for a tryout before that ever happened.

QUOTE (bighurt574 @ Aug 24, 2010 -> 04:13 PM) I think we win the claim, unless an NL team goes for it. I can definitely see a couple of NL teams that might bite.

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 24, 2010 -> 03:29 PM) You get the feeling that if some other team blocks the Manny move for one reason or another, KW is going to absolutely freak out. I get the feeling that other team would have to be crazy

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Aug 24, 2010 -> 03:41 PM) (3) the jobs program we talked does nothing for long term investment. You put a small fraction of the population to work at minimum wage type jobs, and that's putting a bandaid on a torn off leg. The New Deal and its infrastructure jobs did little to decrease unemployment. Hiring tons of people is just a form of paying for unemployment benefits. I liked the idea of requiring them to work because at least that way the country gets something out of it. But you're not involving enough of the economy in that scenario to make it grow into something. And where do you get the guarantee that they'll spend the money? If you're unemployed now you're probably recieving unemployment already. You're struggling to make the bills. You're not going to go out and buy meaningful (to the economy) goods like appliances or cars or the like. You're going to pay off bills and save it up. First of all, unemployment benefits are limited and ending, so you can't count that very much. Secondly...an actual paying job does a heck of a lot more in terms of earning power than unemployment benefits. Third...whaddya mean the New Deal infrastructure programs did little to decrease unemployment? It dropped from 25% to 15% in the 4 years between when it was implemented and the 1937 budget-balancing cutbacks. It dropped massively again when the federal government began a much larger jobs program in 1940.

QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Aug 24, 2010 -> 02:59 PM) Another thing worth noting is that we're not sure how many of 'calf injuries' were real injuries or just Manny not wanting to play in LA anymore. The injuries he's had were almost certainly real injuries, otherwise the DL stints wouldn't have gone through. The first time he got hurt, it was still early in the season and the Dodgers were still in the hunt; they were close enough through the deadline that they were still adding people. This is a guy who's body is very likely to break down. It's been beaten up by drugs probably for more than a decade, and presumably he's off of them now to avoid the 100 game suspension. His body is going to break down on a regular basis.

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Aug 24, 2010 -> 02:35 PM) What stimulus are you suggesting that would do this? What can the government spend money on? And why do we need MORE stimulus, when the first stimulus bill hasn't run out yet? First of all, the first stimulus wasn't big enough. Second of all, the first stimulus was too loaded with tax cuts, which exacerbates the problem of people not spending. The people who got the tax cuts spent some of it, but also saved a ton of it. Third...there's a ton of legitimate stuff out there that hasn't had the kind of investment on it that should be there, either short term construction or long-term building-a-sound-future stuff (Smart grid, Supertrains). Great example...the Obama admin set a goal of renovating 1000 schools a year when they took office...a goal that they're missing. Fourth...the 2 big issues right now preventing investment are, as I said; the near-deflationary environment where holding cash is a very wise investment, and lack of customers. The reason businesses have no customers right now is...we're nearly at 10% unemployment, and the ones who are employed have still lost $10 trillion or so in housing wealth (the well-established economic effect where people spend more when their assets are worth more regardless of whether they're just worth more on paper now). That jobs program you and I talked about a few pages ago does both items here, and it's a shame there aren't people sitting around working up lists of construction jobs that could be done. This nation still needs a couple trillion in legitimate renovation and infrastructure investment to cover the hole that's appeared in the last 20 years (a personal example; my building right now at a state school is probably 25 years overdue for renovation, but there's no money in the pipe for this building). You hire a ton of people and you do several things; you push the unemployment rate in the right direction, you give more people money to spend since they're actually earning it, you keep people out of work from becoming trapped as long-term unemployed, and you push the inflation pressure in the way we need it to go, such that businesses that hold cash will be in a losing-position rather than a winning position. One part of the beauty of hiring people who are unemployed to do things (hell, you can put them at the border for all I care) is that they're almost guaranteed to spend that money since it's a question of some income versus zero income (you give me a tax cut, for example, and it just goes in the bank right now since there's no risk and my assets are appreciating relative to the value of the dollar).

QUOTE (TitoMB @ Aug 24, 2010 -> 02:49 PM) So who do we bench to get Kotsay in the lineup??? Konerko and Rios, of course.

QUOTE (IceCreamPants @ Aug 24, 2010 -> 02:47 PM) Weird gut feeling we are going to lose tonight. Seriously dude, you need to see a digestive health expert.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Aug 24, 2010 -> 02:45 PM) Rob Dibble is talking all kinds of s*** that Strasburg needs to man up. Dibble says all this despite missing a whole season due to injury, only lasting 7 seasons, never starting a game, and never pitching more than 99 innings in a single season, which Strasburg has already passed. If the Nats were in a pennant race I might think that he had a point...but hurting yourself to keep your team 19 games below .500 isn't exactly something that I'd call a sound decision for anyone.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Aug 24, 2010 -> 02:18 PM) It's not 100%, it's more like 99% since he wasn't suspended steroid use it was a female fertility drug used by steroid users to restore testosterone production to normal levels. Kal, you've got to be really, really desperate...either to cover for ManRam or just to nitpick for accuracy...to go with that one.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Aug 24, 2010 -> 02:11 PM) No one is going to pay huge dollars for Manny anymore so what would be our chances or desires to keep him? I know he has been quoted a saying he wants to return to the AL and a DH role to save his knees. I don't know how he'll fit in with KW and Ozzie and the clubhouse and Mark Kotsay, so I won't speak to that. He might fit with them like a glove, he might be punching them 48 hours in. A lot of it is going to be up to Manny though, in terms of what he's willing to accept. He's put up fewer at bats than Thome this year, and it's been entirely because of injury. Moving to the AL as a DH may help...but no team with a legit chance at the playoffs is going to make him their full time DH and expect to get 550 at bats out of him. Any team wanting him will also want to have a backup plan...or they'd have to be a team well out of the playoff hunt hoping to make a big splash. Because of that fact...his offer value is going to be way down. Like well below Damon this year down. He's used to being paid $20-$25 million a season. I'd be shocked if anyone out there offers him $5 million this offseason, and I could totally see 11 or 12 teams deciding they want no part of his act and him winding up with his only option being a $2 million contract with someone. I really don't think there will be anything like a bidding war for him. Even teams that might have a need for him are going to shy away from him, and there are more than a few bridges already burned (Boston). The Sox probably would have an excellent chance to keep him...but that's entirely provided that they want him, and that's entirely provided he's willing to play for a 90% pay cut. I could totally see him having a good couple weeks, going out on the market asking for $15 million, getting offers that are barely major league contracts, and throwing in the towel.