Balta1701

Are you assuming the white Sox will be top 6 in fewest days used for the IL again?

For the As - it sure seems clear that they haven’t gotten offers as good as they wanted, so they’re content to play for time. For Conforto - combine a bad season last year with vaccine issues and a qualifying offer and no one was willing to pay what his market value should have been. His side seems to have held out thinking better offers would appear, and they did not - teams went other ways. We previously saw this happen to Keuchel and Kimbrel in 2019.

So clearly Manea has been on the market for several weeks and the White Sox likely put in some calls on him. Why do you think this didn’t happen? Did our GM not think of this player as an option, or did some side say no? Which side?

Don’t overreact to spring training numbers. Also Bellinger’s spring training numbers are terrible the Dodgers will surely move him now.

Technically both are important but come on, the As aren’t giving up Manea for Burger and fries.

Ok folks taking bets on the date that this switches from “the offseason isn’t over yet” to “we will solve this at the trade deadline”. June 1 - before or later?

As long as you’re up for Lopez and Keuchel being key guys.

Or the 2020 Dodgers who started Gonsolin twice in the World Series and won basically on a bullpen game? Oh wait that doesn’t count either. The pert where Anibal Sanchez and Joe Ross started in the World Series for the 2019 Nats? I’m sure there’s some reason that doesn’t count. The multiple outings including a big extra innings performance by Nathan Eovaldi in 2018? The two starts in the 2017 World Series by McCullers for a team that picked up Verlander a month beforehand? Tell you what, find me a recent World Series team that won or even got there with their top 4 starters from the regular season all there for the playoffs. You’re ridiculing me so you ought to be able to do this with no problem. Go to town.

What happens to the Braves if Kyle Wright doesn’t give them 4.2 innings of 1-run ball in their game 4 “bullpen game” win last year? They won that 3-2. Lose that game and it’s tied 2-2, and the Astros have home field advantage back.

No, your 5th and 6th starters decide the playoffs.

The Braves lost Morton, Ynoa missed a start with a shoulder injury, and Soroka if he even counts now (same boat as Burger).. The Astros were down Verlander the whole year (their biggest contract I believe) and McCullers obviously. The Dodgers lost Kershaw, May, and Bauer. The Rays lost Glasnow. The Red Sox…surprisingly healthy. Other than them, no one has their top starters healthy through the playoffs. 5th and 6th and 7th starters were all over the place in the playoffs- saying you only need 4 pitchers doesn’t do it justice when 2 of your top pitchers are on the IL. I believe the Braves had a guy set the record for making fewest starts in their career before starting a World Series game.

Every team that advanced in the playoffs was using their 6th or 7th or even 8th starters/bullpen games because of injuries though.

Just a note - it seems like the Sox were hurt by injuries last year but on average they were surprisingly healthy. They had the 6th fewest days for players on the IL of teams in the sport. Yes, Robert for 3 months is a key injury, as is Eloy, but people need to calibrate themselves for what injuries are like these days. An average team last year used the IL for 400 days more than the white Sox, the white Sox used the IL for 33% fewer games than the average team. Squads like the Mets and Padres who were really banged up used the IL almost twice as much as the White Sox. The Sox’s roster is on average quite a bit older than last years’. You can’t be surprised if they have more injuries this year than last, including seemingly key guys again.

The Dodgers at 94 seems like a safer bet to me. Theres some interesting things in here. Fangraphs has the Sox 11th, PECOTA has them 5th. Fangraphs has the Twins with a 50% shot at the playoffs without adding a pitcher. Both are down on the Rays, I will believe they miss the playoffs when they’re eliminated. PECOTA likes the Yankees, fangraphs likes the Blue Jays. Both have the Red Sox in the mid-80s and third in their division. Pecota has the Angels at a better than 50% chance at the playoffs, it really likes their offense, but is down on their run prevention. Atlanta and the Mets are separated by about a game between both of them combined. Big predicted leads in both Central divisions. Padres are likely playoff team in both, big drops for the Giants.

Omg. thank you for posting that.

Apparently spin rates rebounded towards the end of last season so MLB thinks that pitchers found ways to hide stuff on them while getting around the checks.

Thank you from the bottom of my heart Saint Peters for everything you’ve done the past 8 days.

That's not how it works? Any contract is pro-rated by how long he plays for. The trick in July is he might get $10 million for 2.5 months - but the team signing him wouldn't have to trade a prospect to do so.

Boston is basically right at or slightly over the tax line and they have been apparently stubborn about money this offseason for whatever reason. Furthermore, they just wouldn’t sign Storey without him being vaccinated so that’s clearly going to be an issue with Conforto as well. He definitely fits their needs, they wouldn’t give up a second round pick for him, and I don’t think they’re that great on paper right now, but there’s some major issues here now. They might be an ideal place to grab him in July if their outfield is struggling.

Worked for Dallas Keuchel.

At this point I think the likeliest scenario is that he’s a Kimbrel/Keuchel style holdout, where he sits out until the QO expires unless a contender has an injury and comes calling. That timeline puts him right before the trade deadline as an option costing no prospects. We are what, 11 or 12 days from opening day? How many teams are willing to dramatically change up their lineup right now, if they even have money left to spend?

You’re crazy.

Mutual options are worthless. You’re better off giving him a fancier hat. It would be more valuable.