Balta1701

Because that's the projection of what would happen without social distancing. If I project you are going to walk into a gaping hole in the ground, and you change your direction, you may not hit that hole. If, however, you change direction again to head back towards the hole, you may once again fall in.

They absolutely aren't required here. This week's shopping trip was the first time I'd say more than 1/2 of the people in the store were wearing masks, previously it's been less than half.

We have tons of construction folks around here and I didn’t see my first mask until about April 20. Today about a dozen guys were in close company flattening a sidewalk. This is why we are plateauing, not going down, because the virus can’t hit all of them when many places are closed, but it is finding enough. Somewhere in here 3-4 weeks ago I’ve got a post saying there’s no requirement that cases go down, they can stay level or go up by 1-2% until people make a mistake and open stuff.

Because the virus doesn't die off if you're indoors with someone or in close contact with them or something they touch outdoors, and this thing is more contagious and more dangerous than the flu.

I got a little lax on the grocery stockup trips the past 2 weeks, but I think I'm going to start doing Sunday morning runs for the next couple weeks while people are going to church and treating each one like it'll be the last one for a month+. Right now we're at 5 new cases per day in my county, with no information ever given out to us on tracking so I have no idea when they go to the store, and if there are 5 known cases per day there's probably 5-10 more unknown ones each day, for a few hundred people in the county infected at any given time total. If we suddenly are getting 20 cases per day, then we will have what a thousand cases active in the county, and 1-2% chance that any given person at the store has it, and a few hundred people out and about at a time? I don't want to be going out then.

If case numbers are already growing, and you allow more contact with no other defenses done, then the only logical expectation is that case numbers will soon start growing faster.

The pitching wasn't as good as in 2005, but it was also hurt dramatically because of the defense. Fangraphs ranks them 10th league-wide in 2005 and 23rd league-wide in 2006, and while those numbers aren't that precise that's comparable to what we saw. They were a strong defensive team in 2005 and a sieve in 2006, and it seemed like those pitchers had to throw 10-20 extra pitches with runners on base every game because of plays that weren't made. So yeah, that was a scary 3-4-5, but that was a 25-run or more defensive downgrade, not to mention the effect that had on the pitchers themselves.

There's obviously nothing decided, but in that mess you might as well start mid-September and do a round-robin with like the top 16 teams each playing best of 5 or something like that. Gets more teams involved, gets you more content for Tv.

To celebrate opening Texas day, we had our highest number of cases in 3+ weeks yesterday. The only day that was higher was a day when probably a bunch of tests from multiple days were released all at once. We've noticeably gone from 1-3 cases per day in my county to 5 cases per day. It's clearly been slowly accelerating in this state with the current amount of social distancing, so the right solution is obviously more interaction between people.

This is only half rivalry...but seriously, compared to Purdue's "Unfortunately we delayed herd immunity (and didn't kill a few hundred thousand Hoosiers)" statement from their president, or the "There will be football this fall!" that just came out today from Texas A&M, this statement from Indiana's president is so much more spot on. "We don't know what things will look like this fall yet, here are 5 possible things we are planning for, and we will make the best decision we can when we're able to do so" https://president.iu.edu/speeches/statements/2020/04-30-plans-for-restarting-operations.html

It's to get low-wage workers off of unemployment. If the business is technically open and an employee gets called back, they have no choice - they can't turn down the job just because they're worried about being exposed - if they turn down a job voluntarily they lose their unemployment benefits. So the state saves some money off the top, and if some people who don't matter get sick...

So, slight switch in topic here, but I still haven't forgotten early March when Gov. Cuomo was confidently showing off his prison-made hand sanitizer and DiBlasio was confidently saying "We have 1200 hospital beds available" and "New York is open for business" when I see my current state's leadership saying how they intend to be a model for other states opening up safely and how my soon-to-be-former university's chancellor is insisting there will be college football in the fall. Don't over-sell until we see the results. Cuomo and DiBlasio may have provided a calming voice during, but their actions in early March were key to why it exploded there specifically.

He had just destroyed his leg beforehand so I'm not sure that's unsurprising. So, your "More talented" 2006 team had an outfield of Podsednik (hurt a lot)/Ozuna, Mackowiak, Dye. It's amazing that they actually caught anything.

If we're locked indoors all summer after Texas's cases surge around the end of May, and somehow MLB has all their players and staff isolated and can run 2 months as the only new thing on TV...Hell put it on pay per view. I'll figure out some way to swing it.

One of the things I didn't realize until the modern era was that Aaron Rowand was a 5 fWAR player in 2004 and a 3.5 fWAR player in 2005. If I offered you an expensive DH for that player and a pitching prospect today, wouldn't everyone hesitate?

LOL no that was the example of the fastest player I've ever seen. He doesn't have to defend him well, no human could. He has to switch and move adequately on a closeout and I'm wondering whether you think he couldn't do that either.

Obviously there's some guys (DRose 2010) that will be too quick for him, but how quick was he on a closeout? I don't recall that being the sort of thing defenses were even trying to do back in those days.

I'll admit I don't remember Kukoc's defense issues that much, but the documentary has talked about him specifically struggling more against having to defend classical power forwards, guys like Malone who would come in and muscle them. Was he bad against both?

You kept saying "Wait for the antibody tests they will show you 50% of the population had it". We have antibody tests from like 4 places now - one place in Colorado with an incidence of 1%, Los Angeles and another spot in California with incidence of 5%, and New York City with incidence of 25% - and the latter 3 are clearly biased samples in favor of people who thought they had been infected and with false-positive rates on the test of 5-10%. So, we can't say that Los Angeles has 1% or 2% infected, but that sample clearly rules out 10% of Los Angeles being infected. The data can't prove everything, but it's very clear that only a small fraction of the US population has had it, even in the New York area. So, what other data are you waiting on that is inconsistent with your hypothesis?

Honestly, no we won't, because there's no national leadership and as a consequence we're not going to get there, not any time soon. We're going to open up states and see what happens and hope New York was a fluke. The fact that we're not doing what has worked in South Korea, New Zealand, China, and instead doing what we've seen fail in multiple places...is why I keep saying we should do the thing that worked. A few states might pull it off (Washington had a 0% positive test rate today), but they'll just re-import cases that they can't trace.

Testing 14 of the antibody tests. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests.html?smid=tw-nytimesscience&smtyp=cur 3 tests had few/no false positives, but all of them missed 10%+ of actual infected samples. All of the other tests had false-positive rates higher than 5%.

There are a number of studies out showing different ways that this virus is doing dramatic damage to younger bodies. Kidney damage, liver damage, strokes/circulatory system damage...people under 30 may see death rates comparable to the flu of 0.2%, but some of these mild cases are still showing damage to internal systems that will be problems for years, maybe forever.

The 3 ways I've got that the next 18 months can go are: 1. Cut transmission down to low levels followed by aggressive tracking, testing, and tracing (led by the federal government), wait for a vaccine. 2. At least 1.5 million people and more than likely 3 million people die nationwide and the economy is destroyed because it's impossible to open anything when that many people are sick for weeks to months and the Health Care system is paralyzed. Hope that transmission doesn't re-start if people begin losing immunity, because then the death toll is way more than 3 million. 3. Keep everything, schools, businesses, closed for the large majority of the next 18 months, wait for a vaccine. Literally everything we've seen for the last 7 weeks tells that exact same story. No magic bullet has appeared, no magic drug or treatment, there's a giant pile of bodies and every bit of evidence says that the 1-2% death rates seen in January will absolutely hold, including most notably the nightmare that New York City became. Spots like Singapore and Hokkaido show clearly that if there are any areas that open up even to a minimal degree without aggressive tracing, the Virus will begin spreading rapidly there again, forcing new shutdowns with much larger case totals. If you've got a better idea, please let me know.

South Korea is hanging out at 2%. That's where you have to be, combined with aggressive tracing, to have any shot at control when businesses open, because you know that some people will pass it along without showing symptoms and you have to be ready to track down those clusters before they spread..