Balta1701

FWIW i did check.

I know everyone is talking about the money part as that makes more headlines, but it's also clear the PA had objections to the player safety setup and those objections are going to make things way more complicated too. The initial MLB plan for testing - players every few days, limited testing of ground crews or other staff members - was clearly inadequate, and that testing proposal would have been hard to manage and cost over $30 million according to an article by Passan last week. Doing a testing regime correctly, for multiple months - we're talking about probably $100 million plus in testing costs, and something like >1% of the virus tests done in the entire country being done by Major League Baseball or their contractor. There are major issues here that aren't getting the same press as the contract proposals.

“Most” definitely don’t. It seems possible but it’s impossible right now to anticipate problems or to figure out if a company is releasing positive press releases to bump up its stock price. Most of the experts are still saying 12-18 months for it to be available and then several more months to manufacture hundreds of millions of doses is more likely. Passans statement specifically was that if we go into next year and baseball owners are on the hook for full salaries but can’t have normal stadium capacities, the owners will say they can’t do it.

Scared of a black woman, but totally ok with 100,000 bodies. At least he's white!

South Korea has had 11,000 cases. Something like 6000, more than 1/2, trace back to 1 infected person going to a church.

Prior to that game, we were all panicked, and someone here took a photo of the Angels Rally Monkey and photoshopped Joe Crede’s face on it as the Rally Crede. It was after 9:00 and I was sitting in my office stressed out waiting, literally half this site had the Rally Crede as their avatar already, and bang. Even though we lost the next game, we had our swagger back. We went to Minny, lost game 1, then McCarthy gave us a great performance, and that was Cleveland’s last chance. I think that may have started the 8 game win streak to end the year. The Rally Crede and McCarthy, they pulled us out of it. Many of us had the Rally Crede as our avatars the rest of that offseason. And yes, I have this. credehr.wav

I’m willing to bet you on this. Football, a bunch of people doing maximum effort in close proximity, some of them seriously heavy, for 3 hours?...we won’t see a football game until there is a vaccine. basketball has the same physical contact issue, but they finished most of the season, they could quarantine everyone for 6 weeks and get away with playoffs, not a whole season. Especially counting travel, you can’t quarantine the league from July to February, and the moment 1 person has it, 2 whole teams have it.

Mr. Ewing, after those years of rooting against you but still respecting your game, and respecting your coaching...do this to that Virus.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29104085/ranking-every-world-series-mlb-history

From who's view, the owners?

If you can't have people masked, then yeah, indoor tennis would be very likely to transmit, regardless of the distance. If 100 people in a fitness studio can get it from 1 person, then it's going to get from one partner to the other during an hour of high effort exercise.

LITERALLY NO ONE IS SAYING WEARING A MASK KEEPS YOU FROM CATCHING IT. EVERYONE IS SAYING WEARING A MASK CUTS DOWN ON THE AMOUNT OF IT YOU BREATHE OUT AFTER YOU'RE SICK. IT DOESN'T HELP YOU, IT HELPS EVERYONE ELSE.

Yeah, the spaces are big, but at the same time I think about people in a big room where they're doing cardio or dance or whatever else was sampled in that study. Those aren't small rooms, maybe not the size of a tennis court...but one person came into the room and literally everyone in the room was infected. That means in 30-60 minutes, even in a big room, they're getting an enormous dose of the stuff spread around. Yeah, a bigger tennis court and both people wearing masks maybe you drop the chance from 100% to something lower, but that's one I wouldn't do. There's no athletic activity indoors I can think of that is safe unless everyone in the building has done a 14 day quarantine. This is one of the cases where I feel like people are using the 6 foot distance as a crutch, to justify things that really aren't all that safe in the details.

From what we know now, I'd be particularly worried about the Indoor Tennis. Just-published paper, 50 minute dance session twice a week, basically everyone in the session wound up infected. https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/8/20-0633_article

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/patchwork-pandemic-states-reopening-inequalities/611866/

Disaster preparedness scientists will tell you that in this situation, you deal with the life and property threatening situation first as that's the priority. Same thing with hurricanes upcoming, wildfires, whatever else hits this year. It's one of the reasons why we need stronger downward trends on case numbers before things open up, because those events will happen and will scramble people. Plus, you absolutely need consistent messaging at a government level to manage those sort of overlapping crises.

Easily a new high in cases for my county today, the official daily count is now 4x what it was in late April, with new outbreaks at a Blue Bell ice cream plant and a nursing home. They're also not counting 60+ known cases from a meatpacking plant in that total.

Midland Michigan, one of several dam breaches on this river:

I prefer the dihydrogenated version.

I still think the safety stuff is a potentially bigger issue than the money stuff, but either way, the timeline is now getting important. If they want to start in early July, and have 3 weeks of Spring Training, they were looking for what, June 10, June 11 as the starting day? That's about 3 weeks away, and you can't exactly flip the switch and start the league in 1 day. People need time to pack, travel, be tested several times before you can start ST. So, if there's no movement in the next week, this schedule starts seeming really difficult to pull off.

A couple detailed pieces from ESPN about how hard reopening MLB will be and how MLB can't even put themselves in a spot of following CDC recommendations because too many things would be shut down if someone were to test positive. https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29186093/the-immensity-mlb-plan-return-daunting-health-safety-protocol https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29175321/how-major-league-baseball-finding-narrow-way-back-field-coronavirus-pandemic

At this point, there really is good DNA evidence that this is untrue. The strains that circulated in Wuhan did arrive in Seattle and California by January-February, but although they spread a little there weren't explosions. The infections in the US are dominated by one strain that entered through New York - after that same strain blew up in Italy. There's a trackable mutation in the spike proteins that is present in the NYC arrivals and absent from the California/Washington arrivals, and right now the whole country is dominated by the Italian version. It's even more prevalent in California and Washington today than the original strains were. Something like 80% of the infections come from 20% of the infected individuals. If you only have a handful of people sick and they stay home, you don't have to have a whole office get sick, so it doesn't have to explode from a single case. Even if there were early arrivals in Washington and California, they didn't spread widely or trigger substantial numbers of cases. The New York cases were the ones that exploded and spread, and those cases were imported from Italy in February. Whether that means the Italian strain is actually more contagious than the original Chinese strains - one paper has proposed that, but that is still being worked on.

At the end of February there were probably somewhere between a few thousand and ten-thousand cases, concentrated in New York. There were a few dozen cases known because we had run a few hundred tests total.

1. January: recognize issue, ramp up production of masks, PPE. 2. Bring in the WHO tests in January, distribute widely. Work with the FDA to approve additional facilities to conduct tests. We were flying blind the entire month of February, missing probably 10,000 cases. 3. By late February, with adequate testing, we've realized we have hundreds of cases in CA and WA and thousands of cases in New York. Panic. Slam those cities shut. Shut down schools, the subway, taxis, restaurants. Cancel big events (there was a super-spreading event at a conference in Boston in late Feb.). Cancel spring break trips, begin imposing international travel limits. Regardless of what was said in January, no matter how many stocks Republican senators dumped, by the fact that we have testing we have information to go from. 4. Start setting up emergency quarantine procedures. People coming into the country are isolated by law for 14 days. GPS units or whatever it takes. Take over a whole bunch of Hotels and use them to begin quarantining infected people away from their families, with food, for free, so that you cut off familial transmission lines. 5. Take all that testing capacity you built up by being responsible in February and throw it as hard as you can at NYC. Burn out those transmission chains. That is where the US outbreak came from. Every departure you get from there shuts down an outbreak somewhere in the country. 6. In March, start working for long-term containment. Encourage people to begin wearing masks. Local and state health departments gear up for contact tracing. Whenever a case pops up, trace it as aggressively as possible. This is going to be hard because you'll have to deal with popups in underserved communities, including native americans, undocumented immigrants, poor and uninsured people, but you have to do it. Start developing plans for how to keep industries functioning without outbreaks, 7. Begin re-opening things around late April, particularly in places that haven't shown a case in 2+ weeks. Don't do it by states, do it by locality. When you have a flare-up, then you do additional shutdowns and quarantines as necessary. Note how much less the economic impact is at this point, because businesses are able to start recovering a month ago. 8. Consistent messaging led by scientists and the CDC so that we're reinforcing constantly that this is a serious situation but that by being responsible we are winning. This has worked in South Korea, Germany, this has New Zealand down to 0 cases. BTW, just to add, the second worst US politician in their response to this, behind Trump, was DiBlasio.