Balta1701

Oh, I posted this probably 3-4 weeks ago in this thread, but the CDC's rate is definitely underestimating the death rate, epidemiologists have pointed this out, but it's almost certainly a lie being forced to make states reopen even though it's unsafe. You can actually do this math yourself. If you start with 120,000 dead, and a death rate of 0.25%, then to get that, you need 48 million Americans to have been infected. In other words, that's 20% of the current US population needs to have had this virus already. Basically none of the antibody tests have found anything that high anywhere except for a couple spots...Lombardy Province in Italy and the hardest hit areas in the Bronx. Those tests may not be precise enough to distinguish 0% infected from 3% infected, but the ones governments are using, that MLB used, that are being published - they can tell 20% from 5%. A very good antibody test in Spain suggested 5% incidence. A good one in Indiana suggested even lower incidence. Both of them suggested death rates in the range of 0.5-1%. New York's antibody tests suggest that range. Now maybe we've gotten dramatically better in our medical response, maybe we were killing an awful lot of people with hydroxychloroquine and stopping its use is saving many lives, but unless there's been a dramatic change in the last few weeks, but otherwise, that CDC number is malarkey and they're using it for political reasons.

As my state's case load jumps again and hospitalizations hit another high, unfortunately we're going to watch this death eater be proven wrong. We're in a society where "Going viral" is a thing we say and yet somehow...

1. It was published in late May, which means that the paper spent those 2 months in fairly rapid revision, which is how data from April is included for the US. 2. You specifically asserted there was no correlation, whereas that paper demonstrates a correlation. You did not ask for a causation. 3. They estimate that the growth rate per day with no responses is 38%. Therefore, a 40% decrease in transmission means that you have stopped all growth of the virus. It does not mean that it was very rapid afterwards, that would be incredibly successful.

They didn't impose restrictions at the government level but that doesn't mean Swedes continued working as normal. They just didn't cut back as much as their neighboring countries, which led to death rates 5-10x higher. https://www.thelocal.se/20200430/how-travel-increased-in-sweden-last-week-despite-coronavirus-warnings

With a 29-30 man roster and a short spring, no earthly reason to have any pitchers going every 4th day, even with the DH games. Add in Rodon and Kopech at the least. Then if you get in trouble somewhere, you have plenty of guys to put out in the bullpen as needed for short outings. What will be more interesting is if we see some guys like Dunning or Crochet held as part of the "backup players" or whatever they're called.

This is statistically proven false as there are strong correlations between several of the responses and slowing the spread. Social Distancing, travel bans, lockdowns, and business closures have shown the strongest correlations with limiting the spread of the disease. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2404-8 I do agree that California is a growing hotspot, but so are the other states - because the social distancing and shutdown measures are ending.

One thing I've been pondering for the last day...with so many different guys signed for 5+ years or covering positions for 6+ with arbitration, how much do the White Sox need "Depth"? If the Royals came away from this draft with 4 2-3 WAR players, that's a really good draft for the Royals. If the White Sox came away with that, they basically will have to trade a bunch of those guys because either they're going to be stuck on the bench or in the bullpen, and teams don't give up all that much in trades for guys who could be good but not great big leaguers, even if they have years of control. What the White sox need is top flight guys, guys who can come in and take a spot at the top of the rotation or be traded for a guy like that. So maybe, because they have so many players already under control, swinging for the fences on every pick they can make is an especially correct move for them?

I know you're trolling, but seriously you're just being an a** here. The US death toll is 110,000 and case numbers are once again rising. Sweden's approach has led to a pile of bodies that they're getting really angry about. https://fortune.com/2020/06/10/sweden-coronavirus-briefings-scandal/

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/11/investing/stock-market-today-coronavirus/index.html Well, the only people who count may have started realizing that they f***ed up today. The good news...if Wall Street realizes the trouble they're in, it won't take long for the Senate to act on an additional large aid bill.

The answer is "maybe, depends on what the bonus requests of the first 2 rounders really are". You can't lose Kelly because you wanted a normal bonus 4th round pick. If you're anywhere close to iffy on the money, you have to go cheap.

I'd agree with this, spots 5-6.

Japan had 33 cases nationwide yesterday. My county is having that every day.

Given what they wound up doing...the Giants.

It's not going to be the final detail, but I would bet you that somewhere along the line in the team's discussions "we were able to keep Sale healthy with this throwing program and if that works for this kid, he's more valuable to us than to most other teams" came up.

Ok, I gotta ask. How do I pronounce? Hard t or silent T (french style)?

Seems reasonable.

woo hoo, previous one day record was about 1900 cases, we blow past that today with 2500 new cases reported! Look out New York, we will show you!

>100 more today, very large increase - much larger than the previous few days, 2000+ hospitalized statewide.

It is worth noting that because many people who require hospitalization don't get there until day 10-14 of the infection, and many people who require hospitalization stay there for 2-4 weeks, hospitalization rates are a lagging indicator for confirmed cases, and that lags actual infections even more. This increasing hospitalization rate right now is telling us what was happening at the end of May. Case loads have continued rising since then, and infections more faster than recognized cases.

I think there's a trick in this data coming out of what we know about the virus. We know that a huge fraction of the spreading happens via the super-spreading events, where one person is in the right spot, around a lot of people, at just the right time when they're shedding the largest amount of virus, doing the exact right thing (talking, singing, exercising, being tear gassed). If there's anything that cuts down the likelihood of a person in a certain group being a super-spreader, then there will be a noticeable drop in how often that group spreads it. If asymptomatic people don't cough, and coughing in the right setting is a factor in those super-spreading events, then asymptomatic people will be less likely to pass it on. But the problem with those folks is the chain. Maybe they don't pass it on to 50 people maybe they pass it on to 1, then that person passes it on to 1, then the next person passes it on to 75. Your temperature check failed, you didn't break the chain, and now you hit the "explode cases" button. There seems to be a lot of reports about schools not being major centers for spreading and this probably comes from the same setup - asymptomatic people might not pump out the loads necessary to infect 20 people.

Did you know that in 1985 the city of Philadelphia literally dropped a bomb on one of its African American communities? https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/2019/8/8/20747198/philadelphia-bombing-1985-move

How's your state doing on contact tracing? Our governor has decided to hire only half the recommended number of them and gave a $250 million no-bid contract to a company that had never done anything like contact tracing and no one else in the state seems to have heard of beforehand. Once again supporting my hypothesis that he actually is a coronavirus.

There's an awful lot you can blame the White Sox for with Fulmer. Changing up his delivery in his first full season, calling him up from AA to the big leagues to save the collapsing 2016 bullpen when he wasn't comfortable or adapted to that new delivery, needed reps as a starter, and had an ERA over 5 are at the top of the list.

It's already happening. Over the last month and a half, this state has gone from an average of ~750 new cases per day to 1600 per day. Each doubling after this hits harder, and with more things open, may hit faster.