Balta1701

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 31, 2016 -> 03:34 PM) Add Giolito and Kopech to the list of pitchers with walk issues. That's what I don't understand why people are down on Glasnow due to his walk rates when we've already been through it with Rodon, going through it now with Fulmer, Giolito had problems in his pro debut and Kopech had problems in the minors. Heck, my concern isn't over Glasnow's walk rates, it more about getting a few solid hitting prospects in any trade for Q. For me, one of Bell or Meadows has to be in the deal with Glasnow. While Kopech is a fair point, he also has never pitched more than 65 innings if I'm reading this right, and 27 BB in 65 innings for a 19 year old is something I'd call different from 62 walks in 110 innings as a 22 year old even if the rate is only slightly lower. Giolito walked 44 in 110 innings last year, so his BB/9 is about 1/3 lower than Glasnow already, so that's not a particularly good comparison.

QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Dec 31, 2016 -> 02:52 PM) Unless he's injured I seriously doubt Glasnow's stock is that down. I think you're way overreacting to a small sample size when he was getting his 1st taste of big league action and most innings pitched in a year at the same time. And even with his struggles and "down" stuff he still K'd a batter per inning. A team wanting nothing to do with Tyler Glasnow is actually a pretty ridiculous notion. Not to mention the Yankees have plenty of arms in their system already...Sheffield, Acevedo, Kaprelian, Adams, Tate, and Abreu is actually pretty impressive, not many teams with 6 arms like that and at least 4 of them will probably be in AA next year. The worry with Glasnow remains control. His stuff is serious, his K-rate is serious, but he has one truly substantial issue in that he has more 1 walk every 2 innings or more at basically every one of his minor league stops. That's comparable to Fulmer last year or Rodon as a rookie and almost 3 times the rate of Chris Sale. There's no reason for me to say that he can't improve upon that, but that's because I'm not a major league scout. What I will say is that if you're down on him, it's because your organization believes he will struggle to make progress on that issue. So, there is reason to at least be hesitant on him, if you think that is a problem you can't solve. If you think that's a problem you can solve, go for it.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Dec 31, 2016 -> 02:08 PM) You tell them if they wait, the price increases. If you allow the Pirates the luxury of waiting until June or July to see how their big league team is faring, you take on the risk that Quintana will either injure himself or his performance will degrade, thus affecting his value on the market. To me, a few posters have nailed it on the head - there just is not a lot of real pressure on the Pirates to fork over what the White Sox want right now, particularly if they are looking up at the Cubs and saying "what are the odds..." But let's say they are competing in late June or early July and they need to add SP. Then they come knocking. You are going to let them have the same deal we asked for in the offseason? Maybe you will...but you need to make them believe that if they want to play hardball today, during the offseason, that they should fully expect that we will play hardball with them if they come back at the deadline. You have to at least make them believe there is that threat. For me, if I was Huntington, and I believed in my team, and I really like Quintana, that might just be enough to put me over the edge and just get the deal done now. Unless you're a Jedi, I don't see why the Pirates would believe that statement. They should absolutely expect we're going to force them to pay a high price at the deadline, but they should expect that because we're going to force teams to pay a high price right now and we've already forced 2 teams to pay high prices. You said yourself you're not willing to punish a team for not putting a good deal on paper now. Stating that you will do that and then being unwilling to do that doesn't seem like a very skilled negotiation tactic to me. If they held onto McCutchen, found themselves 1 game back of the Cubs, and decided to move Meadows in June, you wouldn't say no to that and neither would I.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Dec 31, 2016 -> 12:02 PM) That's exactly right. So you must wait until they do feel pressure. However, that requires you to take on additional risk yourself. We just need to remember that when Huntington comes calling when the pressure IS on them. So I'm missing one thing here, what is the additional risk that we'd have to take on to apply pressure to them? No matter what we do the calculus isn't going to change - there are only a handful of teams left who could offer an appropriate price, and until more than 1 of them decides he's a priority the other teams can wait for our price to fall. What can the White Sox do to change this dynamic other than drop his price or wait?

QUOTE (iamshack @ Dec 31, 2016 -> 11:18 AM) I don't buy this line of thinking anyways. It's the damned offseason. This is one of the reasons to transact in the offseason, so you have an opportunity move some pieces around as a response to a big acquisition. We've allowed these GMs to define conditions, simply because they don't want to move ANY pieces from their MLB roster. Now they're trying to define even further conditions, such as they won't move their top prospects, because they could POTENTIALLY be contributors to the MLB roster next year. While its unavoidable that the market will truly set the price for Jose, and even other assets, I think we need make these teams very much aware that they will pay a premium (should they hold this line) for approaching the transaction this way. Should they come back later, when their is true pressure on them to make an acquisition, the price will indeed be significantly more. If we're serious about making an appropriate deal I don't believe that will be the case (unless the value of the player goes up due to improvement in the player's performance). Our job here is to make the White Sox world series champions and that means acquiring as much talent as possible. If we aren't offered enough talent for our players, we should avoid moving them until someone offers an appropriate talent level. If that team had refused to meet your demands in the offseason and then they come to you midseason with a truly fair offer, do you turn it down to be vindictive? That might fit in "The Art of the Deal", but it's bad baseball GMing. We clearly have had some "issues" in the past with the nationals as an organization, yet when they put a strong deal on the table for Sale and Eaton we were content to do business with them.

QUOTE (buhbuhburrrrlz @ Dec 30, 2016 -> 07:00 PM) If he didn't have to throw in the cheap shot about how terrible analytics are, I'd be happy to agree.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Dec 30, 2016 -> 04:52 PM) Sox could find themselves with a decision to make this time next year with Rodon if he can put it all together and realize his potential. If they can overcome the Boras factor and lock him up that would be the most ideal, but can't rule out dealing him if he appears intent on testing the market right in the middle of what should be the Sox window. As of right now, the White Sox control Quintana for 4 years, Rodon for 5. If Rodon puts it together during the 2017 race to 2018, the White Sox will still control him for several years when in theory they should be good. He will not be a free agent until after the 2021 season. If the White Sox look out after 2018 and can't see a path to competition in 3 years despite a successful development of Rodon...first of all then the guys they just acquired have completely flopped and Rick Hahn will need to be tarred and feathered along with most of his scouts...but the will still have Rodon under control for 3 years as a pitcher with ace level stuff. Unless Mike Trout is on the table and he isn't, it's hard to fathom any reasonable package for Rodon right now and you'd need to fleece someone next offseason to motivate you to move him then.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Dec 30, 2016 -> 04:38 PM) With Torres about to be in MLB's Top 3, this is the closest deal in value to Sale. Quintana for Gleyber Torres (Moncada), Blake Rutherford (Kopech), Miguel Andujar (Basabe) and Nolan Martinez (Diaz). I imagine Yankees say no, so you'd have to sweeten it with Robertson, while eating half his salary. Would 4 seasons of Quintana and 2 half-priced seasons of Robertson equal Sale? Yes? (Would Robertson's total salary or 1/2 salary count against their luxury tax value? That might be important to know. Hell, they could rig it so the White Sox pay his entire 2018 salary and the Yankees pay his 2017 salary).

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Dec 30, 2016 -> 12:16 PM) Is Quintana really worth more to the Sox than other teams? Sox are going to waste his age 28 and age 29 seasons and endure two years of the risk of injury/loss of effectiveness just so they can have have him wrapped up cheap for one year of "maybe we'll contend, best case scenario" in 2019 and then one year of what should be an honest effort to win the AL Central. I guess it depends what the Yankees and Pirates are willing to part with, but they would really have to be lowballing the Sox to not make it worth dealing Jose Quintana. If the Yankees aren't willing to move their top guys and the Pirates aren't willing to move Meadows then yes, I would say that they are genuinely failing to meet the White Sox's price and the White Sox should hold out for a better deal..

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 29, 2016 -> 12:36 PM) I'd still like to see the Sox try Saladino in a Zobrist role. If used across 2B, SS, 3B, & LF he could get enough playing time to essentially be considered a regular. With Cabrera, Anderson, Frazier, and Lawrie all on this roster, you have 2 guys there who played 150-158 games in each of the last 2 years, Anderson who played 154 last year, and a guy who is regularly injured for 2 months. Basically, your setup seems very likely to me to wind up with Saladino playing 60 games when he has to sub for the injured Lawrie and 15 games elsewhere.

QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Dec 29, 2016 -> 10:33 AM) And also to add to that ... I obviously also think we should keep Abreu. I know he's looked slower and that he's aged a ton. But I think him at DH for next 4-6 years sounds good to me. I don't think we'll know what were missing til he's traded. Again the right type of guy to have in the clubhouse. I do agree with trading Q, Robertson, Jones, Melky, and everybody else. But would like to keep Frazier and Abreu. With the way we've seen the market for 1b/DH types collapse this year, I'm at the point of agreeing there's no benefit to moving Abreu. No one will give anything of value for him, and if we're talking about a clubhouse influence I would put his locker specifically next to this "Moncada" guy in spring training and hope for the best. I don't think him being at DH 4 years from now sounds very good to me though, because he seems to be trending really rapidly downwards as of now.

QUOTE (BrianAnderson @ Dec 29, 2016 -> 10:31 AM) Not to shift any gears here, and I know this is Q thread, just don't want to start a new thread for Frazier. Depending on who we receive back for Q, Jones, Robertson, etc. etc. I wouldn't mind keeping Frazier. Now if we acquire a 3B in trades then yes, I think you deal him. My reasons are: 1 - He only has a year left on his contract and is not coming off his strongest year - I don't think you get much in return for him 2 - He seems to be a strong clubhouse presence and has been on some bad teams down in CIN. I think he can handle a few years being the leader to younger guys. He seems to have his head screwed on right and a good work ethic 3 - I honestly do think he'll bat better than last year. I'd expect .250 and 30-35HR's and a bit better plate presence - that being said I'm usually over optimistic on Sox players 4 - I think you can lock him up for a 3-4 year deal before FA for approx. $12-14mm a year. That's a total guess, but seems pretty affordable 5 - The Sox haven't had a serviceable 3B for a damn long time. I won't list them out, but the likes of Mark Teahen come to mind 6 - Even if he starts to declne defensively (we'd have him for ages 32-35/36) then I think you can flip him over to 1B and then Abreu to DH ... or if he really falls apart DH. I think there is still value for a guy who can pop 30HR a year at all 3 positions. 7 - Who is our present internal options? Again we may trade for someone - but I think there are worse things than spending 4yr, 50-56mm on Frazier. The other option is we flip him for a return like Micah Johnson, Thompson and what's his face pitcher... but really the return will be less than that. And that just doesn't excite me. I want to see Tyler Saladino play there for 150 games next year. See if he can hit and see if his body can handle it. That's why I'm more focused on us needing to move Frazier than the guy I can't stand seeing in a White Sox uniform in LF. The posts around this one talk about Frazier putting up 2.5 WAR, with his ability on defense if Saladino can put up a .700 OPS he can give similar value and quality defense could help the pitching staff more for a minimal price. He looked like a big league ballplayer in both 2015 and 2016, but he never got a full season there. If his body falls apart again or he puts up a .600 OPS on the year fine, then I won't be able to say he would be deserving of a 2018 spot, but the only way you're going to avoid having me saying the same thing next offseason is to play him. And no, he can't take the 2b slot, because I think someone else gets that position in 2018.

QUOTE (credezcrew24 @ Dec 29, 2016 -> 01:38 AM) The problem is we've seen Avi fail miserably. Excluding Melky for the sake of comparison: at this point the the off season I'd take Tilson in center with Coats and Liriano manning the corners and getting the vast majority of the at-bats. That we are tired of watching a guy and frustrated with a guy does not change the calculation.

Today, universities I have been at have lost 3 bowl games and a home basketball game. This is an accurate summary of my sports fan experience.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 11:45 PM) Or Frazier could go to the Indians...and they move Ramirez back into a Javier Baez-like role, with an emphasis on the corner outfield spots (especially if Brantley struggles with his health again). Lonnie Chisenhall is obviously not the first name that comes to mind for starting RFer on a World Series-caliber team, but they managed to get by with him last year. What were Ramirez's DRS numbers at 3B last year, compared to other positions over the last couple of years? At 3b his DRS was -1 in 2016. His value there was being a slightly better glove than Frazier, a better bat than Frazier, and a better baserunner than Frazier. I think Cleveland added their expensive RH bat. They have enough depth in the minors that if they want to add a corner OF, the most likely candidate to take some at bats there is Bradley Zimmer.

QUOTE (Heads22 @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 11:34 PM) Yup. And not saying that Nate needs saves to add value to the Sox or in my eyes, but it's easier for an organization, publicly, to pay more for a closer than a setup man who admittedly doesn't have the longest or most injury free track record. I think you can be grateful for the Cleveland Indians here. After watching Andrew Miller in the playoffs last year, I think your standard talk radio response now is "We got a setup man with an ERA in the 1s and he throws 99? Awesome!".

QUOTE (Al Lopez's Ghost @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 11:32 PM) Gomes had a negative WAR and can't hit a lick. No way I trade Jones for that. But I would love to get a good defensive catcher for the younger pitchers. Yeah, that is WAY too little to get back for Jones. But you could find a way to make this work for me - Putnam maybe more interesting? Petricka? I'd give up someone like that for a person who helps us develop.

QUOTE (Heads22 @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 11:23 PM) Would be helpful to move Robo in the offseason then, allow Nate to add value as a closer. I think teams have genuinely gotten to the point that they will focus less on saves. I do think that Jones got a bit unlucky last year - I think him having 9 BS is a symptom of that, and that if you put him in a pen with Putnam and Petricka he might well have a simply dominant first half. He's a guy I am in no hurry to move unless you pay through the teeth.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 11:08 PM) BlackSox13 brings up an intriguing idea. The Mariners. Lewis/O'Neill/Neidert/Vogelbach/Haniger isn't terrible. I haven't studied any of these guys this offseason, can you add any details to make a more convincing case?

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Dec 29, 2016 -> 12:03 AM) Sure but I don't buy Gyorko doing that again, and the projections don't either (Frazier is projected to be ~2 WAR better). You can't just assume Gyorko is going to repeat that. 2015 Frazier was nearly 4 wins better than 2015 Gyorko. 2014 Frazier was nearly 5 WAR better than 2014 Gyorko. And if you want to really play that same game, the projections have Turner being 1 WAR better than Frazier next year, so if you're paying Turner $16 million/year... The 1b/DH/3b positions have just become buyer's markets this offseason. There are more of them available than there are teams who think they're a 3b away from competing. If 4 of them blow their knees out before July this market swings the other way, but that's what we need to have happen for Frazier to have the kind of value you guys want him to have.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 10:51 PM) When did Todd Frazier become a DH? Am I missing something here? And Encarnacion is a 34 year old DH in a huge buyer's market who would cost a team their 1st round pick and was still able to get $21.7M/year in guaranteed money. The 2017 1B/DH market the 2018 3B market, so let's not pretend it's somehow predictive. As for Justin Turner, he clearly took a hometown discount. I don't buy for a second that's how the market valued him. You really think teams believe Turner is only worth $5M than Kendrys Morales? Or only $6M more than Andrew Cashner? Come on Balta, you're better than this. I think Justin Turner had zero market and took the only deal there was. Take a look at the list of teams and their starting 3b - I literally just put it in this thread. It was the Dodgers and the Giants, and the Giants were only half motivated to hurt the Dodgers, they got better 3b play out of a platoon setup than they'd have gotten from Frazier. I think next offseason Frazier is on the market against Moustakas and there will be even fewer teams looking at him as a full time 3b. The trade market will still be open too - Headley probably available cheaply as well. Todd Frazier's market right now looks weak enough that I should take back my statements about how the White Sox shouldn't sign him. If the White Sox were an 87 win team last year I'd have been screaming to go after Bautista or Encarnacion because yes, I think this has become a market inefficiency. Teams are no longer willing to take a risk on guys in their 30s who get most of their value out of their bats now that we're out of the steroid era, they're afraid of them falling apart.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 10:41 PM) Frazier makes a lot of sense for the Cardinals. Peralta sucks now and Gyorko is pretty bad too. 2.3 fWAR last year for Gyorko, 2.4 fWAR for Frazier. Yes, Frazier is a slight upgrade. Would you take on $10 million and give up a top 100 prospect for that upgrade, even if you think that Frazier's value is being underestimated or he got extra unluckly last year? Honestly, no you wouldn't. You might think about trading for him at the deadline if Gyorko fell apart, but you'd also have Moustakas as an option potentially and you've been after athleticism and defense, which Frazier doesn't provide compared to him, and you're not giving up a top 100 prospect for Frazier unless he's back to all star form at that time.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 10:25 PM) Being paid his market value? What does WAR go for these days? $8M per win? If that's the case, market value would be $20M to $24M, which means he'll likely provide some surplus value. He'll also be one of the best 3B in free agency next year and should provide the acquiring team a pick if he leaves. I don't think a prospect in 75 to 125 range is unreasonable, but obviously there have to be teams with a hole at 3B. It's really amazing how much people overreact to one down year. Frazier was a 4+ WAR player in both 2014 & 2015. He switches leagues and experiences a bizarre change in his batted ball profile and suddenly he's a 2.5 WAR player. Honestly, I don't buy it and think he will rebound to some extent. His 4+ WAR days may be over, but I still think he'll be a 3+ WAR next year. And if a team won't pay for that player now, I'll happily hold onto him until deadline and get it then. Edwin Encarnacion was a 3.9 fWAR player last year and has put up >20 fWAR over his last 5 years. Maybe you project a bit of dropoff for him but on paper, you might call him just under a 4 WAR player next year. He got...$20 million next year. Todd Frazier, as you project, as a 2-2.5 win player, getting the same money per win that Encarnacion got the year beforehand, would be a $10-15 million player. Justin Turner put up 5.6 fWAR last year, more than Frazier has put up in any season of his career, and he got $16 million per year. Todd Frazier is not a $20 million/year player. People simply are not paying right now for Todd Frazier's skill set. If you wanted to call this a market inefficiency that could be exploited to win games I'd probably agree with you, but you can only play so many guys at DH, so there's only so much you can do to win games using this inefficiency.

QUOTE (Jake @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 10:00 PM) A lot of these players are likelier to be more valuable in-season when the market is much smaller and contending teams are much more desperate. I still think that this is being overly optimistic about teams having needs, but more importantly than that it still benches Saladino, which is exactly the opposite of what the White Sox should be doing. If the youngster can play he should be playing. Todd Frazier hitting 25 HR for the White Sox by the end of July is way less valuable than Saladino hitting 13.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 07:29 PM) Hasselback That one is fair. So we have to go back 10+ years to find one of this happening, I think that makes my point effectively too. Anyway, I'll take the ball and I'm gonna win.