NorthSideSox72

Hillary Clinton now on CNN telling everyone that Florida is a big deal, and how much she cares for Floridians.

QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 08:55 PM) I wouldnt go THAT far. but i think it is more name recognition than anything else. Past states and some of the SDOGPEIT states have proven that Hillary normally has a HUGE lead until Obama starts campaigning.... then either she drops, or he rises. Maybe not enough to WIN a state, but enough to make it close enough to keep the delegate count close. I dont think Obama will win either NY or CA, but he'll keep it close enough to marginalize her victories. Enough to keep it to where Edwards is the kingpin and crowns Obama the nominee. Forget NY, and probably NJ (as Rex pointed out) - Obama just has to make brief appearances to not get completely blown out. But he will lose big in those states, barring a Bloomberg endorsement. Similarly, Clinton can forget about IL, and probably won't do well in the south across those multiple states (which add up to a lot). And Obama probably pulls KS. The keys to the castle are CA, MA, MO, MN, the mountain west states (CO, AZ, NM, etc.) and CT. Those are where the race will be decided on SDOGPEIT.

QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 08:50 PM) So Romney's basically done now? Not done, but on the ropes. He needs Huckabee to drop out, basically. Even with all his money, I don't think he can beat McCain+Giuliani on SDOGPEIT. He needs those evagelical votes with him.

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 08:44 PM) Um, he's currently down about 250,000 votes. By the time this is over, Hillary's margin of victory will probably be bigger than Obama's full vote total from South Carolina. In a politically irrelevant state (for primary purposes) where basically Clinton violated the rules to get that.

CNN stating that Giuliani's campaign is "suspended". Also that there are multiple sources in their campaigns stating that the groundwork is being laid for Giuliani to endorse McCain, as early as tomorrow. McCain is now the clear front-runner. Romney needs to hope for a Huckabee drop-out.

QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 07:58 PM) Hillary ACTIVELY Campaigning in FL/ Robocalls via Surrogate Like I said in the FL thread, Obama needs to go right after her on this. No nice guy stuff.

QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 07:11 PM) Rasmussen shows a tie in CT between Obama and Hillary. I will have fun doing an update on those polls that I posted, this weekend, to see the differential.

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 07:58 PM) Dude, she's up by 21. She has a 200,000 vote margin right now. She may well break 50%. 50-32, she's +18 right now. Obama won SC by what, 30 points? FL is almost irrelevant. Now, one thing that one of the CNN talking heads said is very true - Obama has shown he has a lot of the stuff to be Prez, but he needs to show a bit more toughness. He needs to come out of the gate tomorrow and go right after Clinton for her tactics. Drill her at the debate. That is what Obama needs at this point.

So Hillary decided to cheat, and there she is revelling in it. I really don't like her at all. Obama on the other hand is in Kansas City - right on the border between 2 key SDOGPEIT states - prepping for his little rally. If Clinton can't even get a South Carolina-like decisive win in FL, which it appears she won't, despite being the only one who made noises about Florida and having her name recognition... that's not good at all for her.

First 10% in from Florida for the GOP... McCain: 34% Romney: 30% Giuliani: 18% Huckabee: 13% Paul: 3% Thompson: 2% So there may have been a large conservative turnout, but, they are apparently split between Huckabee and Romney. For the Dems, which have no delegates at stake, and only Hillary campaigned (against the rules)... Clinton 52%, Obama 30%, Edwards 16%, Kucinich 1%.

But... since the Dem race is irrelevant, I'd imagine there are a lot of independents voting in the GOP race too. That plays to McCain. Or is Florida a closed primary?

QUOTE(mr_genius @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 03:47 PM) you probably do, just don't know it. i assume you like using search engines and stuff. I know, I was really just kidding around. And I've worked around plenty of algo trader types as well, so I'm definitely familiar.

QUOTE(mr_genius @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 03:41 PM) my boss at work is female, she has winked at me before. no joke. once i finished writing a complex algorithm for a big customer of ours and she said "nice job" then winked! oh, and the other day, I was talking to some lady at work and she said something about how she liked my shirt. i feel your pain. What cup size do you have, Mr G? Oh how I love algorithms...

QUOTE(almagest @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 03:38 PM) Mackowiak isn't fast, but is a good base runner. He gets good jumps, makes wise decisions, etc. Most good base runners aren't stolen base threats, per se. They also need to be fast. I don't know their 40 splits, but, I'd say Mack is pretty damn fast. As far as speed around the bases, I think the only guys on the Sox the last few years who are/were faster would be Owens and Pods-when-healthy. Possibly Ozuna too, but I haven't seen him enough lately to say for sure.

No predictions yet? We should have made some sort of pool out of predicting the primaries. Could have been fun. Oh well. My picks for FL... McCain: 33% Romney: 32% Huckabee: 19% Giuliani: 11% Paul: 5% Huckabee surprises a bit with a 3rd place finish. Giuliani fails, and drops out immediately after. Romney and McCain in a very tight race - could go either way. I am guessing McCain by a hair.

QUOTE(almagest @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 01:35 PM) Speed is only a significant threat if the base stealer has a success rate near or over 75%. Otherwise the player's speed has little effect. Personally, I feel speed has the greatest effect in being able to go from first to third or second to home on a single. Especially if the team or the hitters coming to bat struggle with RiSP. Your second graf conflicts with the first. Speed is important, and steal rate isn't necessarily a good indicator of that value. It only indicates the value of their ability to steal bases, which is not solely dependant on speed. Some players are fast on the paths but not great base-stealers. Rob Mackowiak was a great example of that - didn't steal much or all that successfully, but he was pretty darn quick on the paths.

QUOTE(Soxy @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 01:06 PM) What an enlightening discussion from a diverse crowd! I'm sorry, I just had to. They both suck. But I think that most of America would rather see a black man with power than a woman; how many women in power aren't regarded as major b****es (that isn't to say they aren't--but compared to the behavior of their male counterparts, they get labeled more)? How many black men? The big problem for both racism and sexism is that no one really wants to talk about either. (And in my field, not politics btw, there are very few women OR people of color) I think people are more willing to face and deal with racism than they are sexism. I see a lot of treatment of women as lesser beings than men, I think, without even realizing they are doing it. And I see women doing it to themselves too. I see less of that with racial minorities versus whites.

QUOTE(Rex Kicka** @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 12:52 PM) He's been to NJ, but its not worth a ton of his time. So much of NJ feels part of New York, so the state does kind of view Clinton as their home Senator too, believe it or not. Good point.

QUOTE(Heads22 @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 12:41 PM) I hate the cold. Rif***ingdiculous. Tom Skilling was showing a temperature map of the midwest this morning, and there was a 90 degree difference in temperature from St. Louis to Fargo. 90 f***ing degrees, in just a few hundred miles.

Just wanted to point out, on the topic of the housing market, that not only are there huge regional and even neighborhood variations in market strength... there is also at times a difference in property types. For example, I have some real estate in New Mexico and Wisconsin - undeveloped land, or now usually labeled "recreational land" - that seems to still be doing quite well, judging by the fast increases in prices around them. Also, condos may be doing better than houses or vice versa, etc. There are just so many factors in play depending on the real estate in question.

QUOTE(shipps @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 10:30 AM) When I think of a guy in the super utility role I think of a player that will bunt,hit to the other side,make contact and keep the ball in play,play some OF as well as infield,and actually enjoy doing it.Juan is not that. But Pablo is. And Ramirez might be - we'll have to see.

Here's a little prediction. If Obama wins this thing, and if Edwards isn't his AG (maybe he's HHS or something)... I'd bet that Lisa Madigan becomes the US AG under Obama.

QUOTE(YASNY @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 07:52 AM) Swisher can play first. Oh yeah, forgot about that. Excellent.

QUOTE(YASNY @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 09:03 AM) Of course racism is the bigger problem. Doesn't Obama receiving 81% ( or whatever the final tally was) of the AA vote in SC just scream racism? And almost as striking, Clinton and Edwards getting 75% of the white vote.

QUOTE(BigSqwert @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 09:34 AM) Rumor has it Richardson may endorse someone by the end of the week. As I said in the SDOGPEIT thread, he could be a difference maker come Super Tuesday. But he'll need to endorse someone soon, and get out on the trail quick.