NorthSideSox72

QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 10:21 PM) So Obama has to basically win SC by double digits in order to get back into this race? Well, if you ask Balta or any of the GOP'ers on here, its over. Some of the rest of us believe that's just not the case. Winning SC big helps, but honestly, probably not a lot. To stay in it, Obama needs a solid victory in SC, and then he needs to do well enough on Super Tuesday to keep Clinton below 50% of the delegate total (through that date). If he and Edwards can do that, then I am guessing this thing goes all the way to Denver and a brokered convention. If on the other hand, Clinton, after Super Tuesday, has significantly more than 50% of the delegates... then Obama is basically dead. All this, of course, is barring something unexpected... such as Edwards dropping out and endorsing someone, or one of Obama/Clinton having some major slip-up or a skeleton coming out of their closet. I think Obama wins SC pretty big. After that, and the California debates, and some national campaigning (which Obama and Clinton haven't done much of yet), we'll start to see what the polls look like in Super Tuesday states. What they appear to be within the days beforehand will give some indication. If Clinton has large leads in the big delegate states, its probably over.

QUOTE(BigSqwert @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 10:18 PM) Everyone complained when Kerry didn't fight back in 2004 so what is he to do? Obama is doing what he has to do. The only smart thing, really. But the fact that it has to be that way makes people a little sad. Me included.

QUOTE(mr_genius @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 09:45 PM) http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html#2007 -237,477,000,000 is the deficit with China. any talks of a trade deficit needs to address that. As far as the second point, the economic realities of were you are talking about had a lot to do with the WTO and the China trade deals. Both the currency issue and manufacturing production increases are a direct result. so in your opinion this is a large trade deficit that, in your opinion, coincidentally sky rocked after the WTO and Chinese trade deals. I think I need to just end my hijacking of this thread Dude - look at China. Look at what has happened there in the past few decades. These things that are happening, sending manufacturing to China, is going to happen regardless of trade policy, unless you want the US to become complete isolationists. Its just reality. And trade agreements made to grease the wheels in certain areas are not what made that happen.

QUOTE(mr_genius @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 09:21 PM) between 1989 and 2003 the U.S. trade deficit with China rose twenty-fold, from $6.2 billion to $124 billion because of oil? please explain how that works, northside72. I said nothing of the sort - I wasn't just talking about China. Were we only discussing China? And you are assuming that increase, in China, was due to changed trade policies. Instead, I'd suggest, the economic realities of massively increased production moving to China, changes in currencies, and various other factors all played major parts as well.

Oil is a big part. And SS2K5, note I agreed with you - those trade agreements had an effect, just not a very large one.

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 07:29 PM) Exactly. So if Clinton loses by 6 or 7, it's a win for her. Eh, maybe. So you are calling a 6 or 7 point win? Tell you what. Gentlemen's bet. I'll call double digit win for Obama (10+).

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 07:31 PM) Perhaps a better thing to say then would be that, like many issues, Bill Clinton's administration just sort of slid through without taking any action that could help correct the growing trade deficit when it may have been more manageable than what we have today? I'd go with that.

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 06:39 PM) Yeah, Clinton has even more momentum because she closed the gap from what could have been a double digit loss. Latest poll says 19 point Obama lead. Clinton hasn't closed any gaps in SC, unless its happened since the debate.

QUOTE(mr_genius @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 05:23 PM) actually, that's not accurate. Our trade deficit has a lot to do directly with NAFTA and deals with China signed during Clinton's reign. I can't say I know the numbers, but there are so many economic reasons for the trade deficit that were in place well before Clinton that I can't see how NAFTA or those China deals are anything very large.

QUOTE(mr_genius @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 05:01 PM) They also had a tech bubble which, of course, burst. And signed some bad trade agreements, basically setting the ground work for some of this massive trade deficit we have. Bad trade agreements in that period had little to do with the current trade deficit. Overall economic factors in the US play a much bigger role that way. And the tech bubble was not really within much control of the federal government - that was something that just had to play itself out. And it did.

QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 03:52 PM) 2. Galveston, TX Really? I've never been there, but I had the impression that it was a broken down oil town that never really came back to life.

I just shivered a little. This subject was discussed by Daniel Day-Lewis recently as well - he was really into his character from There Will Be Blood, who is not a nice man. He said he had a hard time shaking out of that character. I really think that good actors, like musicians and artists, are a special breed - and they usually aren't entirely stable personalities. If they were, they probably couldn't transform themselves into these characters so fully.

QUOTE(Heads22 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 02:21 PM) Masset has to make the 25 man, doesn't he? That could be bad news for Ehren/Booner. Masset and Floyd both do. That's why I think Masset becomes the long man, or gets released. And if they do add a new starter, than Danks goes to AAA and Floyd stays in the rotation. I think it would be fairly stupid to have Masset be a short reliever and replace either Wassermann or Logan, both of whom are just a lot more reliable and valuable in that role than he would be. Whereas Masset could maybe be worth a shot as that long guy with an occasional start, which none of the rest of that pen can really do. I think if Ehren Wassermann tried to start, his arm would fly off around the 3rd inning.

QUOTE(iamshack @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 02:10 PM) Well, Audi makes that claim all the time, as does BMW, Mercedes, and plenty of other auto manufacturers. I'm sure it's a basic guideline, but from what I have heard, the engines in these particular vehicles can more than back up the claim. But you raise a good point- one would think they would not make such a broad statement like that without fully understanding the nature of the oils that go into their engines. And you are correct again in saying that the guys in my local SooperLube would not be the ones to debunk this "myth." So as you have said and NSS has said, the manufacturers of the vehicle probably are the ones to trust. But I also agree with you on the part of taking a risk. I don't want my engine to explode one morning and have to put $7k into the car because I was too cheap or lazy to just get a $50 oil change every 6k miles...(especially considering I only drive about 8k miles a year). I guess I am also pretty spoiled in that, in addition to the 3/36 all around warranty, my car has a 10/100 on the entire powertrain. They did that for hybrids because people were so nervous about them, but they included the whole shebang, not just the hybrid parts. Yet another reason to go hybrid!

QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 02:06 PM) That's what I have been saying. She likes to project her weaknesses on Obama. She attack HIS record, when HERS is far worse. She attacks him, then claims "oh, he's frustrated and wants a fight". No, YOU are frustrated because he is a pest to your belief you deserve the White House. So YOU are starting a fight. She has been fighting because she had such huge leads before the primaries and caucuses started, and she lost that lead pretty much entirely. She was watching her candidacy walk slowly away from her. She then reacted, starting the week before NH, becoming an entirely different candidate. And that worked for her in NH and NV - we'll see if it keeps working though.

QUOTE(Jenksismyb**** @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 02:04 PM) Yip, which is why we've been hearing nothing but the spat between Hillary and Obama, and not much with the actual meat of the debates. It's sad, but thats what happens when entertainment value trumps newsworthiness (in terms of viewership). Anyone interested in this exact issue should check out the last season of The Wire. It pretty much sums up the state of the news and journalism business these days. Anyone else notice the complete drop-off of Edwards? I mean I never thought he had a chance, but the debate the other night cracked me up, where he said something like, "Hello guys, there is a third candidate in this race." Well, a caveat on the media - there is still good media out there. Its just not where most people get their news. Most people now get it from TV or the internet, and more specifically, from crappy news stations and major media sites. But if you dig deeper, into solid newspapers, public broadcasting (some of it), and websites that are more in-depth, good reporting can still be found. Edwards hasn't really dropped off that much - he just had a really bad Nevada. I'd guess, though, that he'll do pretty well in SC, probably 15-20%. That's pretty much his slot.

QUOTE(Athomeboy_2000 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 01:50 PM) Guess who's up to the same ol' $h1t again?? Clinton goes after Obama's Republican comments in radio ad This is the Clintons using one of the GOP's favorite marketing plays. Its right out of their handbook. Its the same reason you hear BushCo use the word "freedom" so often. Psychologists call it projection - putting your own weaknesses onto someone else.

QUOTE(iamshack @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 01:55 PM) Well, the manufacturer is also the one who has to sell cars in a really competitive market, NOW, as well. They can almost always pass off failures to their vehicles as the owner "not maintaining it properly." But I understand what you are saying. And believe me, I WANT to believe what the manufacturer is telling me- I'd love to only change my oil once every 10k miles. But I also don't want to cause serious damage relying on something that isn't necessarily true. I don't know, I guess I'll have to do more research... You should email the guys on Car Talk. Seriously.

QUOTE(southsider2k5 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 01:51 PM) I am torn. Part of me knows that they way relievers go up and down, this might be the bounceback year. His arm hasn't changed at all, and if they could fix him, he is closer material. If he comes back and pitches like last year, he couldn't middle relieve at Great Falls. Most relievers are up and down. Its just that you can see some consistent patterns if you look deeper at the numbers - and MacD's numbers show me a guy who crumbles under pressure. Plus the Sox have a bunch of short/setup/role relievers and no long/middle guy who can go 2 or 3 innings and occasionally start, especially with the risky back end of the rotation. I'd rather have this pen: Jenks Linebrink Dotel Thornton Logan Wassermann Broadway/Masset/Haeger Than this one: Jenks Linebrink Dotel Thornton Logan Wassermann MacDougal

QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 01:34 PM) I think KW should wait until spring training when Crede can show he is healthy to deal him. It would make no sense to deal him now. Keep him around, if he's healthy he's got a lot of worth, and who knows, maybe Fields gets hurt in the spring. I agree, and it looks like that is KW's plan (barring someone making a strong offer, I am sure). Uribe, I'd think, he'd be willing to deal at any time.

QUOTE(Cknolls @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 01:45 PM) According to the Dow Theory, we have been in a BEAR MKT since July. Tomato Tamahto. Well, I find the Dow to be a crappy market measure anyway. But that's a whole different discussion.

QUOTE(iamshack @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 01:41 PM) Well, hey, it's not my bs, it's the bs of the oil guys. And I absolutely agree that the oil change guys have reason to get you back in there as often as possible. Which is why I don't know who to believe.... So you're saying I can just go with what the auto manufacturer says? If you think about it, the manufacturer is the one who has the most interest in you having your car kept up - especially in the first few years. It keeps their reliability numbers looking good without any investment on their part, plus their dealers get more maintenance revenue.

List of players and coaches who will attend...

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 01:14 PM) And I still look at our minor leagues and see several guys who could come up and be expected to be adequate in that role, even with Gio no longer being there. I think there's a decent chance that enough guys have solid seasons this year, (between Sisco, Egbert, Broadway, Haeger) that we'll want to move Jose just to clear another rotation spot for a young guy instead of just to find someone else to take on his contract. And I think that if the Mets and Royals aren't interested in Colon, then there's probably a strong case to be made that one of our AA guys could come up and have more success than Colon. I understand the specific concern on JC, hopefully we'll find out that a lot of his struggles last year were due in no small part to the personal issues he had to go through. If not though, then I still think we have enough depth to make that less of a worry. I hope you are right. And I agree that Eggy and maybe Broadway might be ready to contribute in 2008. Key word: might. I just think the rotation has two very reliable guys, and 3 very big question marks. And I also think that the fortunes of that back 3 in the rotation are going to be the key difference maker for the team in 2008. That's why I'd prefer to have one more high-potential horse like Colon in the mix.

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jan 23, 2008 -> 12:42 PM) I agree we need to move Crede's salary and Uribe's if at all possible, but I still say you guys are seriously underestimating the quality we have in our starting pitching...at least I hope you are. If JC was younger and more stable, i'd agree with you. But 3 big question makes is one too many. And I don't think Broadway or Egbert have as much chance of success as, say, Colon (yet). And I think its likely a 6th starter will be involved during the season.