NorthSideSox72

QUOTE (Marty34 @ May 21, 2014 -> 02:05 PM) What does Sabremetrics tell you that you can't find from the stats on the back of baseball cards. Well unless they've started putting microchips on the backs of baseball cards since I collected them, I'd say a lot. Advanced metrics includes getting a lot more raw data, but more so is about different lenses to see the data. From the perspective of a statistician (not baseball, but in general), this stuff isn't even very complex. It is elementary analysis techniques. Filter out pollution and noise to give a more meaningful answer to a question. This isn't wizardry.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ May 21, 2014 -> 01:58 PM) What players have Sabremetrics discovered? I could tell you Mike Trout is an elite player. Well done. Changed the subject AND created a straw man in that brief a post. We aren't talking about scouting high school kids here. No one is saying advanced statistical analysis can do that. No one. We're talking about results in the majors.

QUOTE (Señor Ding-Dong @ May 21, 2014 -> 01:56 PM) I still like his potential if he ever figures it out, but he's not far from going the Jared Mitchell/Keenyn Walker route either. He's got a long swing and (obviously) strikes out a ton. I think a demotion to Kanny may be in order if he doesn't get it together soon. Everyone knows Hawkins struggled mightily in WS last season, but he was at least hitting homers. I know injuries have derailed Barnum's short pro career to this point, but he's yet to display the power that has drawn Ryan Howard comparisons. The kid's confidence must be shot, and you can't just leave him in WS hitting .150 and hope for the results to change. He gets like 3 Ks just about everyday. Think about what that can do to a player mentally. If he's struggling this badly come the ASB, I'd all be for flipping him and Hayes. Not that I think pitching in the SAL is dramatically different than in the CAR, but at least he began to show a little success there late last season. He's a guy who needs to get on a track to start with, which he hasn't been able to do.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ May 21, 2014 -> 01:05 PM) Sabermetrics is largely a gimmick. So trolling. I bet you thought math was a gimmick in school too, right? Because that is all it is. Creating formulae and algorithms to analyze measurable events and data.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ May 21, 2014 -> 11:00 AM) Or it's just erasing $6 million in revenue loss due to lower attendance. It's a risky endeavor to invest in pitching in the FA market. We're already seeing signs of Verlander deteriorating many years before the end of that deal. Scherzer, Lester and Shields...I can't see us touching those guys. And Masterson supposedly turned down $50 million for 3 years from the Indians but for the White Sox to commit let's say $80 million over even 4 seasons to him...they were willing to gamble on Tanaka because of his age and ace potential, but based on what he's looking like so far this year, would anyone jump up and down with joy getting Masterson for $80/4 (were he to continue putting up relatively pedestrian numbers)? Last year, he was very good, better than Quintana. But this year, he's giving up more hits than IP, a WHIP of around 1.5 and a 5+ ERA. Maybe the looming contract situation/FA is in his head (see Sandoval in SF), but that disappearing ability "disease" has infected Carlos Santana, Bourn and Nick Swisher as well. http://www.indiansbaseballinsider.com/blog...easonable-63355 Joe Chengery March 23, 2014 - 10:59 PM EDT While the shorter length (and virtually no one thought they'd take a two-year deal, and the preference for them really is three) helps, it's still a risk, and still a lot of payroll to tie up in a guy who has not put up back-to-back good seasons, and is a borderline frontline starter (i.e. #2) at best. Signing Kazmir would have probably been more prudent; as I said before, the length of Ubaldo's contract would have made me shy away, but on the other hand, Ubaldo has matched or outdone Masterson over their careers, and it was a reasonable bet he could maintain a level of success here. Would it have been as good as the second half of 2013? That probably wasn't likely because very few pitchers stay in that "hot zone"- even Verlander hasn't been as dominant as he was a few seasons ago, but I think with (Mickey) Callaway's guidance and familiar surroundings, Ubaldo could have been a consistently good starter at a lower cost. I'm not as sure of that elsewhere; like I said though, I would have preferred Ubaldo at three years plus an option, but that turned out NOT to be an option in the end. Keep in mind that no one expected Masterson to take a two-year deal, and the only real reason he's doing it is because of a possible change in the QO in the next bargaining agreement; taking a shorter contract would still enable him to still get a larger contract while he's still in his prime. A QO would probably affect his value since his track record is no better, and arguably worse, than Jimenez and Garza, so the shorter p-length contract is a calculated move on the part of Masterson and his agent, just as it was to make it seem as if the contract offer is a discount, when in reality, it isn't. Seth, I still don't think Masterson's 2013 was that great; his 2011 was better, and his 2012 wasn't much better than Ubaldo's and that's where the rub is- can Masterson put together back-to-back strong seasons, presuming 2013 was a strong season? (I think Ubaldo had the stronger, more consistent overall 2013, along with a healthier 2013). If Masterson can put together a strong 2014 (more like he did in 2011 with better command, since I'm not confident his H and K rates will be as strong in 2014 based on his track record, necessitating the need for better command), it will be the first time he's done that in his career. I think that is a major reason why the Indians are hesitating - which Masterson are you going to get- the strong three, borderline two starter like in 2011 and parts of 2013, or the inconsistent 4-5 starter you got in 2012, and even parts of 2010 and 2013? That's why they don't think putting down 1/6 to 1/5 of this year's and next year's payroll is the best idea, especially when other salaries will be increasing next year (including Kipnis, who they want to sign long term, plus any upgrades the Indians may need next offseason. Signing Masterson to such a contract may tie their hands to the point where they won't be able to sign anyone of significance, even a Murphy-level signing). Ignoring the exhaustive tangent into a topic I never brought up... You think the Sox will lost $6M in attendance revenue by not having Dunn in the lineup in August and September? Really with that?

Dunn hitting well and Beckham seemingly improving are both best case scenarios, whether you want the team to compete or you want tradeable assets. A guy like Dunn, if he keeps up where he is, can be shipped off to a contender in July for a prospect. It won't be a super high-end prospect, but his value in power is at a premium right now. You can shave off, say, $6M from your books, and get back some sort of prospect. And that's exactly what the Sox should do, unless they are somehow seriously incontention in July (and I don't mean a few games and a few teams out of the last wildcard spot). That's $6M more they may have to spend next year, and maybe another prospect to add to the system.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ May 21, 2014 -> 01:48 AM) Is the discussion being recorded and if so can you post a link to a podcast of it afterwards ? I honestly don't know if they are recording it, but I would guess no. This is in a restaurant/bar in front of a crowd. But if there is audio or video afterwards I'll link to it.

I'm surprised how high some folks have Montas, and that no one other than me put Anderson #1. QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ May 21, 2014 -> 07:52 AM) Can I rank "2014 Draft Pick 1-3" as #1 even if we don't know who he is yet??? Well yeah. We do our next FS list in late July or early August, after draft signings and the trade flurry are complete, so most likely the list looks a lot different then. This is the pre-list.

To me, those top 3 stand out, but 4 through 7 are very interchangeable.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 20, 2014 -> 04:49 PM) Has Johnson graduated? He was sent down pretty quickly this year. Over the innings limit.

So, of the previous FS Top 25, 5 of them have already graduated: Abreu (1), EJohnson (2), Semien (4), Webb (11), Petricka (15). Also from the "Others" list, Nieto and Leesman have graduated. We've also now got players with 150+ PA or inning equivalent, so we have some data to work with. This is PRE-DRAFT of course, and before any mid-season trades. Right now, who are your Top 10? Or heck, if you want to, go deeper to 25. Here's my shot at it, and I didn't research this heavily either - just off the cuff, to start a discussion... 1. Anderson 2. Hawkins 3. MJohnson 4. Davidson 5. Beck 6. Sanchez 7. Danish 8. Ravelo 9. Thompson 10. Michalczewski 11. Adolfo 12. Snodgress 13. Montas 14. Rondon 15. Jaye 16. AMitchell 17. May 18. KSmith 19. Barnum 20. Ortiz 21. Engel 22. Bassitt 23. Recchia 24. Hansen 25. ALopez Just missed... Guerrero Surkamp Olacio Goldberg Lowry Coats I'm sure I missed a few "oh yeah" guys.

QUOTE (Iguchicago @ May 20, 2014 -> 01:56 PM) How much free pizza are we talking about here? Enough for a Japanese 2nd baseman?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 20, 2014 -> 01:10 PM) Kevan Smith appeared notably raw behind the plate in person. No passed balls/wp's but really weak in the running game. Which is interesting because he does have a strong arm. Which is not the same as being good with it against SB's of course, but still. I should also note, his CS% in the minors has been slightly better than, for example, Nieto's was. You might have caught him in a bad game? Hard to tell.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ May 20, 2014 -> 12:34 PM) They are nothing compared to flavum & fathom. They don't have avatars or sigs to stick out either. I've had images turned off for so long I can't even remember what my avatar is. Or what anyone else has.

QUOTE (flavum @ May 20, 2014 -> 12:27 PM) I just have "white sox" on twitter search bookmarked, and I happened to see it at the right time. Fascinating.

QUOTE (flavum @ May 20, 2014 -> 12:20 PM) https://twitter.com/Ben_Baby/status/468787773365702658 Looks like the original tweet was a hs friend. Denton, TX. How did you even FIND that?

QUOTE (flavum @ May 20, 2014 -> 11:21 AM) Javy Guerra called up. Makes sense, though I haven't seen any announcement yet.

No one at Charlotte is particularly appealing. The three most likely possibilities seem to be Maikel Cleto (take 2), Deunte Heath (yeah, again), and Javy Guerra.

Also, here is the recap.

Decent AA debut from Recchia, especially against the strongest offense in that league. QUOTE (Bruce_Blixton @ May 19, 2014 -> 10:55 PM) I wouldn't immediately discount him as a prospect despite his advanced age, when he was at Pitt he was more focused on football in his first few years there and then decided to devote more time to baseball when his future prospects for the NFL dried up so when we drafted him he was very raw and still learning the game. He's a tremendous athlete as evidenced by him actually starting a few games at QB for Pitt so the lack of power shouldn't necessarily be a huge concern or his ability to stick behind the dish. Agreed, that's the story with Smith. Yes he's a prospect, but he's fringe. QUOTE (caulfield12 @ May 20, 2014 -> 02:11 AM) You'd be hard-pressed with Micah Johnson gone to name one of the Barons' current starters that has a good chance at being a major league regular in the future. Perhaps Ravelo, but he's got to prove himself over a full-season, show a bit more pop and also stay 100% healthy. Ravelo hasn't had any significant health issues or missed much time, so I'm not sure where you are getting that. He's likely to see Charlotte this year, his hit tool his big, his plate discipline is special, he hits a ton of doubles, and the power is increasing. His position is his problem.

FYI, FutureSox pre-draft coverage will begin soon, so watch for that content. We'll also of course do the draft tracker like we do every year.

FYI, FutureSox pre-draft coverage will begin soon, so watch for that content. We'll also of course do the draft tracker like we do every year.

QUOTE (Bruce_Blixton @ May 19, 2014 -> 01:29 PM) Are you talking about Andre Martinez? This is the only video I could find on him, his delivery reminds me of Bronson Arroyo with a high, somewhat exaggerated leg kick. We've had success in the past with these types of transactions before so I guess it's worth a shot, if anything I'm encouraged that they're taking these kinds of risks in the minors. LOL, yes, that's him. Got his name wrong, thanks for fixing. I had it right on the FS tweet, got it wrong here.

Given his utter dominance of A-ball, I don't see the problem here. For that matter, I don't think it is a problem if he has the occasional meh outing like he did this time. He WILL struggle at some point, there is no value in pretending otherwise, and a small jump from A to A+ can provide that for him. If he is unable to adapt to that, then he's not going to be a major league pitcher anyway. This is a good plan overall, I think. Let him finish in A+ this year as he hits his inning limit.

I get that this was inevitable, and the injury is of course not Ventura's fault. But I still contend, having him out there for that extra week or two hobbling around like Kirk Gibson was not a smart path to take. If this was coming, then get it done earlier, just to decrease the risk of making it worse. I think they handled this poorly. And before anyone jumps on me for this, my track record here will indicate I'm more patient with managers than most people. This isn't just screaming from the rafters. They, Ventura and his crew, could have handled this better.