NorthSideSox72

QUOTE (Heads22 @ Apr 23, 2008 -> 02:13 PM) Got any theories on why Iowa is so staunchly PrObama? Same theory generally that I said about plains states. But also some other factors. Iowa was a caucus, and his ground game was excellent. Also, Iowa has historically had one of the most educated populations in the country, and those folks tend to favor Obama heavily.

QUOTE (mr_genius @ Apr 23, 2008 -> 02:39 PM) Exactly what industries can we excel in? sure as hell not engineering or anything that requires mathematical science. Green ? well having top notch new energy technology takes engineering. we suck at science and progression industries. The U.S. has been slowly headed towards being an economy based on three things - service industry, land equity and the business of running business. Those are what the country excels at. Unfortunately, the land equity piece of the puzzle (to include land literally, but also natural resources) is limited, though still with some growth room. And the service industry has a limitation based on population. That leaves the business of business as the best chance of the big pieces. What I mean by that is, the business may in fact do its manufacturing in China, or its programming in India - but the lucrative business jobs stay here. What you point to, about engineering and innovation, is one area the U.S. could and should bolster to make it a major piece of the national portfolio. The U.S. lead the tech revolution of the 90's, despite a lackluster public education system. Now, its time to find the next bleeding edges - green industry, distributed technology, internet and web, etc. - and seize them. That means education in math and science, which you point out - that needs serious improvement. But it also means trade schools and more practical college studies, and we seem to be doing well there. This is an area that should be emphasized for growth.

QUOTE (Y2HH @ Apr 23, 2008 -> 02:26 PM) Sounds good to me. Just seems that as of late this thread has become more generalized opinions on the macro/micro aspects of the economy rather than stock/bond/fund talk... They've gotten blended together. So now, this can be a true investing/markets thread, and the other can be economy/business generally.

If its about the economy and business generally, and not investing/stocks/commodities/prices, put 'er here.

Actually, the "other" thread is quite riddled with investment stuff. That's the majority of what is in there. Instead of creating a new one of those, let's create a general Economy thread instead. I'll do that.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 23, 2008 -> 01:00 PM) Personally I don't either, but then why is GWB villified for manufacturing job losses during the last 7 years? I'd at least like to see some consistancy. Manufacturing jobs, for the most part, are going to continue to go overseas. And anything that Congress or the President might do to stem that tide would end up being more harmful in the long run anyway. You can soften the rate a bit, but not do much else. Bush has actually been right, IMO, about one thing that he has said consistently - that the key to job growth is not to prop up industries, but to instead put an emphasis on education and moving into the next generation of businesses. Unfortunately, there were two huge political problems with this. For one thing, it comes off as being mean-spirited and hurtful to American workers, so its a philosophy that gets minimal support. And for another thing, since Bush's administration and Congress have been so horribly inept, that they were never able to do anything useful in that direction. Oh and, the trillion dollar Iraq debacle didn't help either.

QUOTE (Y2HH @ Apr 23, 2008 -> 11:59 AM) Not that it matters, but with Clinton's recent question about, "Why can't Obama win the big states?", I have her answer... The big states don't matter, Hillary. They never matter. Because *regardless* which democratic candidate makes it in, the SAME big states are going to vote for them, just like they do in every election. Chicago, New York, California = Automatically democratic. You can put it in the bank. Texas = Republican. Put this in the bank, also. The swing states, and the states inbetween that can change the tide of an election are the states that matter. Now I wish she and her minions would seriously think about that before they say it again, because it's beyond stupid to even bring up. Honestly, and this goes to anyone here reading this, if you think Chicago/New York/Cali will not go to Obama or Clinton, regardless of which get in, you too, are an idiot. Y2HH, you must read, agree to and acknowledge with a post in the MUST READ thread before posting again in the Buster. Thank you.

QUOTE (jackie hayes @ Apr 23, 2008 -> 12:34 PM) I'm very confused. Chicago seceded? Oh, I'm sure downstate Illinois would be perfectly happy to break away from the Chicago area.

QUOTE (Heads22 @ Apr 23, 2008 -> 12:17 PM) What I get a kick out of is the traditionally red states out here, like the Dakotas, that just seem overwhelmingly Obama, despite the fact he's generally seen as more liberal that HillDog. I think the main reasons why western and plains states seem to favor Obama heavily is two-fold. One, I think people in those parts of the country tend to have less tolerance for politics as a game. The midwest, south and northeast enjoy the heck out of that game. Obama is, in my view, much more consistent and direct than Hillary, and doesn't peddle and change personalities as often as she does. So, they favor Obama. Secondly, and maybe even more important, their memories of the Clinton years are far less rosy than in other areas. If you look at the plains states, and much of the mountain west, they didn't experience as much of the huge economic boost of those years. In fact, their core industries - agriculture, mining, etc. - suffered quite a bit. So they just don't feel very strongly about having another Clinton in the White House.

QUOTE (Controlled Chaos @ Apr 23, 2008 -> 11:43 AM) I didn't see that at all. He made note of the temp change in 2007, but followed it with "It is generally not possible to draw conclusions about climatic trends from events in a single year, so I would normally dismiss this cold snap as transient, pending what happens in the next few years." Then went on to explain his sunspot theory. He opens with a sarcastic apology to people believe in global warming, then talks at length about how cold 2007 was. Then later, as you point out, he adds the caveat. He's playing both sides of the issue. If its not relevant, why use it as a basis at all? QUOTE (YASNY @ Apr 23, 2008 -> 11:48 AM) Since I haven't been in the 'Buster for a while, Kap sent me via email the link to Mike's article. Much appreciated, btw. NSS, why weren't asking the same questions after the 2005 data? It seems that data backing global warming is trumpeted as the honest to God truth ... no wait, I can't invoke God in a liberal agenda ... as a scientific truth. But let something come out that contradicts the agenda, then that, as in this case, is considered ridiculous. Typical. Now, I step back out of the Buster till I decide otherewise. And for the record, I probably won't see any responses to my post. I am not sure if you are confusing me with someone else, but, I have said repeatedly in here that no single year or a few years can be used as a guide to indicate global climate change in either direction. I've said it over and over again. And in fact, when people have brought up individual stats like that showing a particularly hot year (as I recall, 2005 was one of those), I've said that is meaningless as well. So to answer your question, I DID ask the same questions.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 23, 2008 -> 10:49 AM) http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story...5013480,00.html Again with scientists trying to interpolate a trend from one friggin' year. Where did these people get their degrees? I see this from both sides of the debate, and it adds nothing to the discussion. You can't look at 2007 and call it global cooling any more than you can look at 2005 and call it global warming. Its a ridiculous idea. Heck, even a decade is a very, very short timespan to try to determine anything from.

Final tally, per the state of PA... Clinton: 54.3% Obama: 45.7% In terms of the vote total, Clinton wins by 8.6%. Not exactly the hug victory she was looking for, but not as close as Obama would have liked.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Apr 23, 2008 -> 06:30 AM) Even if she loses NC and IN she can still win the election on the supers. This thing will drag on for as long as possible. Looking at the remaining contests, if she loses NC and IN, she'd need to do very well in the remaining group AND get a whopping 75% or so of the remaining superdelegates, in order to win. Do you think that 75% of those remaining party elders are going to go against the will of the people, as expressed in the delegate count, and the popular vote?

QUOTE (Texsox @ Apr 23, 2008 -> 07:13 AM) I have to share this story involving a buddy of mine. He lives in a rural part of Texas on a ten acre ranch. Nice home, well constructed. A gentleman ranch if you will. Room for a couple horses that sort of thing. A couple nights ago his wife and daughter fell asleep in his bed and not wanting to wake them he decided to sleep in the spare room. As he flipped on the light he noticed a stuffed animal on a file cabinet they keep in that room. Half asleep, he starts to wonder when his wife bought a stuffed snake for their daughter. As his eyes adjusted to the light, the realization that he had a live, honest to goodness, tool of the devil, serpent, coiled at "belt buckle" level in his spare room. Further making this interesting was the lovely diamond pattern of the snake. Rattlesnakes are common in south Texas ranch land, just not inside a nice home. Somewhere there is some snake loving herpetologist who would just have gone to sleep and let the snake show itself out the door. If you are one of those people, stop reading now, the rest will make you cry. At this point in the story I paused my friend and asked "what was in the file cabinet?" He asked "why the hell would you care?" I replied "well I want to know what was going to be destroyed by the shotgun blast!" Anyhow, not being a snake loving herpetologist with herpetologist tools, he was poorly equipped to deal with this issue, so he headed to the kitchen for a weapon. Now I should digress for a moment. He is not a native Texan, but looks the part. In fact, this Canadian looks more the Texas cowboy than most Texas cowboys. He did have presence of mind to grab his camera while getting an 8" chef's knife. If he was a true, dyed in the wool, Texas, he would have also grabbed a beer. And living on the border, if he was true Texican, he would also also fired up the BBQ for that snake. But, back to the story. As he reenters the room, he is thinking, 8" knife, three foot long snake. I'm going to have to get closer than I want. But lucky for him, the snake decided to get down and get closer. Acting quickly before the snake maneuvered into an impossible to get at corner, he took a couple quick steps and plunged the blade behind the snakes head, cleanly killing it with one cut. That's when the glass breakage sensors on his security system kicked in and started the sirens. That's when blood began gushing from the snake as the snake continued death reflexes pumping blood everywhere. Rushing to the security system pad to silence the alarm, he was met by his wife who was very interested in her husband holding a bloody chef's knife, with the security system blaring. "What the hell is happening?" "I just killed something!" "What?" "I just killed something!" "What???" (women can be sooo slow) "In the spare room" As they reenter the spare room, the now headless snake is still wiggling, blood is pooling up, and thoughts begin to occur like "where are the other snakes" and "will they come after us" and of course, "who is going to clean up this mess" So he begins the process of cleaning the room while she tries to fall back asleep with their now awake daughter who wonders why she cannot be in the room with mom and dad. As he's cleaning the room, and carefully scanning the entire house looking for other snakes he notices that this one does not have rattles and was probably harmless enough. He cleans the blood, puts back the knife and goes to bed. Gets up, grabs knife, places it on nightstand. Feels something under covers, leaps out of bed, throws off comforter Remember hiding place overlooked, checks that Feels something under covers, leaps out of bed, throws off comforter Realizes, if they can reach the file cabinet, can reach the bed Feels something under covers, leaps out of bed, throws off comforter Cancels Snakes On A Plane from Netflix queue Gets about three hours sleep and begins to search for entry point Searching the outside of his home, he discovers his dryer vent is stuck open. Peering inside he learns the hose connecting the dryer to the vent is disconnected. So he reconnects, using much larger screws, getting it extra tight. Now I'm thinking about the snake coming in the dryer vent. What happens if that hose did not fall off, would it stay in the dryer? Would a snake appear as I am removing the lint screen!!!! Damn him, I'm having someone else do my laundry. Wow. And um, Tex, I'm not a herpetologist either, but take a close look at that picture. That is a western diamondback, I'd bet on it. Its not just the pattern either, look at its head - its clearly a viper. If it didn't have a rattle yet, that may just be because it was immature. There are a few snakes that are non-vipers that imitate rattlers, but they don't have the triangular viper-type heads like that one does. Your friend is very fortunate.

QUOTE (NUKE @ Apr 23, 2008 -> 07:29 AM) Delta Airlines..........You fail at LIFE. http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/industr...a_575096_8.html Fuel prices be damned. How do you lose almost 6 and a half billion in 1 freekin quarter?! In a few years there will be only 3-4 airlines and we'll be paying through the nose to fly. Correction - there will be only 3-4 major network carriers (AA, UAL/Continental, Delta/NW and US Air/AW). Which is fine - all the better for the smaller non-traditional airlines (Southwest, JetBlue, AirTran, Frontier) who will pick up more business.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 23, 2008 -> 06:52 AM) So a 10 percentage point victory. Interesting to note that it means the Clinton internal polling which had her with an 11 point win was by far the closest of the late polls, along with the Survey USA poll that was showing Hill +12. I have heard the talk ad naseum that Hillary can't win the nomination on her own, but is there any math out there that shows Obama can win it either? I am starting to think that it is impossible for EITHER one of them to win it outright, which gives Hillary an easy reason to fight through to the convention. Correct - neither can win it outright before the convention, based on pledged delegates remaining. However, one of them could theoretically win it as soon as the remaining few hundred superdelegates get off the bench and endorse one of them. After the PA dust settles, Obama will have a lead of about 125 delegates overall - 150 or so in the pledged category, and about 25 behind Clinton in Supers. Obama needs 310 more delegates to reach the magic 2025 number (he has about 1715 now). There are about 400 superdelegates who have yet to endorse, and there are 408 pledged delegates remaining to be had in the remaining contests. So there are the numbers. Check out the remaining primaries and caucuses*: Guam, 5/3 (4)* NC, 5/6 (115) IN, 5/6 (72) WV, 5/13 (26) OR, 5/20 (52)* KY, 5/20 (51)* PR, 6/1 (55) MT, 6/3 (16) SD, 6/3 (15)* Most of those look like Obama states to me, and 4 of them are caucuses which will give him a boost. So for fun, lets say the results look like this in the remaining states, based on polling and my guesswork, and erring on the side of Clinton... Guam: split the 4 delegates NC: Obama +12% IN: Obama +4% WV: Clinton +20% OR: Obama +8% KY: Clinton +20% PR: Clinton +6% MT: Obama +8% SD: Obama +12% Assuming those are the margins, that gives Obama 212 more delegates, by my math. And this is giving Clinton huge victories in KY and WV, even though they probably won't be that big. That would give Obama 1922 delegates, and Clinton would have 1778. That leaves one thing - the 400 remaining supers. The only way Clinton wins, at convention or otherwise, is if 75% of the remaining supers vote against the delegate count AND against the popular vote AND against the number of states won, and endorse Clinton anyway. How likely to you think that really is? I'll be bold here and say that it won't happen. For one thing, the superdelegates aren't that well organized as a group - they are individuals, and they won't all be swayed one way or the other. For another, if the Dems s*** all over the will of the people that way, they will lose a ton of voters for a long time. And third, as I've been harping on, it seems clear to me that Obama is a much stronger candidate for the general, and that is what these Dems want most - a win in November.

Only 3 PA counties have oustanding votes remaining, all others are 100% reported. The three counties are Philadelphia, Chester and Delaware - all of which voted for Obama (Philly heavily, the others by 10 points-ish). They are all reporting 91 to 96%. So if its 10% now, its probably 9% as a final number. That would give Clinton 86 delegates, and Obama 72. That's 14 delegates, net, she'd pick up (if the precincts fall in line with the total vote, give or take). His lead was what, 150 delegates or so? So her big victory made up about 10% of that ground, and she now faces 2 fairly big states where she is already behind. And remember, thus far, most states start heavily Clinton, then go towards Obama, to one extent or another, when both campaigns are in town.

CNN saying 9% right now, with 99% in. How annoying. If it was >5 points, that's an Obama victory. More than about 12, and its a win for Clinton. Right in the middle? Yup, we're just going to keep stringing this thing along. Gawd, I hope Obama wins big on May 6. He's got a substantial poll lead in NC, and a small one or within-margin in Indiana. He needs to win both to have a chance to ice this thing soon. If it splits, who knows how long it will go on.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 22, 2008 -> 02:38 PM) For photovoltaics I think you're right, but even then, I think that solar water heaters have been around and working for quite some time and IIRC are pretty darn cost effective in the long run. By solar water heaters, do you mean the ones where you run the pipe on the roof with heat-soaking coating on it? Or something else? Also, one thing that is said to work pretty darn well now are those no-tank water heaters. Just uses electricity to heat the water as it heads to the location in the pipes.

QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Apr 22, 2008 -> 02:46 PM) We will know the winner of the Pennsylvania Primary the moment the polls close. More to come.... How is that? You mean the networks will "project" it right away based on their exit polls? If they are saying that now, then Clinton won.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 22, 2008 -> 02:09 PM) It's probably also worth keeping in mind a couple other things...first, there are a lot of other ways to "Green" up a house coming on the market these days, some of which are better than others. Things like various new types of water heaters, better designs of windows, better building materials, etc, on top of the photovoltaics that are now becoming common. Oh absolutely. For those though, its simpler a lot of the time - when its time to replace the waterheater/furnace/roofing/windows, we'll be going with the most efficient available, as long as the cost difference isn't so astronimically out of whack that we'd never see the benefit. I brought up solar cells as an example because its a much bigger deal, with a bigger up front investment, and until recently the math just didn't work very well for them in most circumstances.

QUOTE (GoSox05 @ Apr 17, 2008 -> 01:15 PM) Yeah and Nazis used to say "don't trust the jews" and look where that went. GoSox05- You need to read, agree to, and post acknowledgement in the MUST READ thread before posting in this forum again. -NSS

QUOTE (kyyle23 @ Apr 22, 2008 -> 11:36 AM) I watched The Hudsucker Proxy last night, I absolutely love that movie. O Look, Its for kids! sure sure.

QUOTE (lostfan @ Apr 22, 2008 -> 11:26 AM) High gas prices are kind of a blessing in disguise, in a way. Americans sometimes need a good kick in the ass to get them to do something about an unfavorable situation. If we kept on having gas prices in the 1's, we'd never do anything about it. Now we have as good of a reason as any. It's kind of hard to ignore the guy in front of you when he keeps punching you in the face. Agree. SS2K5 and I, along with others, have been saying that for a while. It sucks for now, but it will probably be a benefit in the long run. Higher prices for gas, as well as the electric and gas bills at home, will make more people look at alternatives. For example, the combination of high electricity prices and now much more efficient PV solar cells mean that they may now be much more practical for people's homes. Same goes for cars - people will buy more fuel efficient vehicles now. Some of you may recall, I posted a thread in here a while back laying out the math for buying a hybrid, which I then did. Well, we're probably buying a house this year, and after I do so, I'll be doing the same math for solar cells for the house. Stay tuned.

QUOTE (Athomeboy_2000 @ Apr 22, 2008 -> 08:38 AM) Why this is over by May 6th... Let's assume CLinotn nets 10 delegates out of Penn this evening. Let's then assume that Obama wins NC by 10 points (or 11 delegates). Clinton then needs 80% of the remaining pledged delegates. Even if Obama dropped out after NC, she still wouldnt get 80% of the remaining pledged delegates. She can not win if she does not win by 20+ points. Even THEN she needs 75%. Kind of beating a dead horse here, don't ya think? Everyone knows that the pledged delegates race is over. Its the supers, and the overall popular vote, that are still in play. And even the popular vote would need a huge turnaround for Clinton to be in play. Its all about the supers.