iamshack

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jul 19, 2013 -> 07:15 AM) I think this is where the Sox willingness to pick up payroll will really help, especially with the amount that is coming off the books at the end of the year. Yeah, I think it will come down to whether Pittsburgh would be willing to actually put some of their best prospects on the block in exchange for the money, or if they are just willing to increase the quality of the talent coming back marginally.

The issue with the Pirates, if I had to guess, is they would be willing to move better prospects if the party they were trading with picked up salary. If the Sox were to move Rios/Ramirez, that's $22 million or so in salary just next year? And another $7-8 million this year still? Then they'd still be taking on at least $12 million in salary for '15 if you include the two buyouts. My guess is that is more than the Pirates will be willing to take on, but considering the lack of other options out there, it might be something they are willing to do if we take on, say half of that money in exchange for higher quality prospects. I think this might actually be one of the best fits out there.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Jul 18, 2013 -> 08:51 PM) Your on a roll with this subject. s*** happens. Those players earned those contracts, GMs can't forsee the future. Matt Kemp, Pujols, and A Rod were always MVP candidates year in and year out. A GM is not gonna say "wellll idk, I think they might bust even though they've consistently been phenomenal talents" Same goes with your true target in this silly little tangent, Adam Dunn. He was one of the most consistent power hitters over the last some odd years. A GM has no way of knowing he's all of sudden going to become less of a singles/doubles hitter. All these players have built up a solid enough reputation to garner these contracts. Part of the problem with baseball contracts is they are far too focused on past performance as opposed to anticipated or expected performance. This is a symptom of there being a s***load of money in the game.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jul 18, 2013 -> 03:57 PM) The problem is that the classic buyers aren't really in buyer mode this year - Dodgers have bought enough, Yankees aren't buyers, Angels aren't buyers. Tigers and BoSox could be but they don't really need starters. The Nats will buy when appropriate, but they aren't buying either. Atlanta has been gunshy for years. I think we'll get an idea of what the market looks like when Garza is traded...Cubbies in high Media frenzy to try to get a trade done. My guess is they get a 51-100 prospect for him. If they do better, that should portend well for us. I'd guess something like Peavy, Rios and $10 mill to the Rangers for 2 B prospects and a youngish backup on their ML roster. We might be able to squeeze Olt out of them, as his stock is dropping fast (and he was always overhyped). Crain to someone for a B. That's about it. I'm not sure we're as eager to dump salary as you might think...

QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 18, 2013 -> 03:59 PM) I've found being active makes me feel more accountable to my diet. You feel like you don't want to "waste" a workout by eating like s***. On the flip side, calorie destructing workouts allow you a bit more leeway. That is true as well

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jul 18, 2013 -> 01:08 PM) So am I wasting my time defending Adam Dunn haha? I didn't even mention that he's usually top 5 in pitches seen per plate appearance. In my limited experience, you are usually wasting your time arguing with Greg about anything.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jul 18, 2013 -> 12:58 PM) Most General Managers do not agree with you though. I could care less who disagrees violently. I understand Dunn's flaws. But what you are failing to grasp is the positives that he provides. Guys that take walks and hit a s***load of homers don't grown on trees. If Dunn were not on this baseball team this season they would be a lot closer to the worst record in baseball. What Dunn provides is important. The team is just so bad that what he provides doesn't really make much of a difference. There are many players on the White Sox that are a lot worse than Dunn but you insist on beating this dead horse and I don't really understand why. A few years ago, it was Rios he did this to.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 18, 2013 -> 12:25 PM) Any stat that says Adam Dunn is a good hitter has to be questioned. If he's a good hitter, why aren't teams lining up to acquire him? I'd be shocked if he doesn't just retire after the current contract expires or play for pennies. I want people on the record on this topic. Does anybody else think Adam Dunn is a "good hitter?" I say NO. Ugh...Greg, that is essentially what we have been arguing for the last 150 posts.

QUOTE (Y2HH @ Jul 18, 2013 -> 11:06 AM) A lot of this, as you alluded too in your post, comes from knowing your own body, how it reacts, to what, and how much, and what you can/can't get away with in terms of diet. By and large, if people followed my diet, they'd probably get fat. While I'm pretty balanced, and try to eat healthy, I'm also a junker in that there is nothing off limits to me, on any day of the week. I'll usually eat ice cream 3-4 days a week, drink beer, etc. But so long as I'm active, it seems to counteract any of these "habits", and now that I've been playing rat hockey for 3+ hours every Saturday, not to mention practicing during the week (in addition to going to the gym), I've gotten to the point that I really don't care what I'm eating anymore. My advice, first and foremost, even before diet -- is be active. If you're already active, be more active. After you're doing that, THEN worry about diet. Some of the most out of shape people I know eat 50x better than me, and the lesson is, both matter. Also...there is this. Avoid diet drinks and fake sugars at all costs. If you're going to eat things like candy, ice cream, etc...do it right, and do it real. These chemical compounds that form fake sugars screw your your bodies ability to regulate REAL sugars, they mess with your insulin production, etc...always remember, fat people drink diet. Couldn't agree more! It's amazing what your body can deal with in terms of fuel if you just exercise! I'm pretty similar to Y2H...I eat a salad for lunch almost every weekday. I usually eat a pretty healthy dinner too. But I also may drink a beer or two, eat some fritos or some sour gummy bears, or head down the street to get some frozen custard. On the weekends, I will usually eat out one night, eat some more crap during the days, etc. But the key is, I workout pretty hard 3 times a week for an hour a day and I may play basketball or football with guys from work on Saturday mornings for a few hours. I eat well for lunch most days, including getting a ton of fruits and vegetables. I also try not to drink more than one or two beers during the weekdays and I don't drink soda or sugary fruit drinks. Now I'm not fit like Jason Stackhouse in True Blood, but I am pretty fit. And I do it while keeping my sanity.

Mine is salty things or sour things...

QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Jul 18, 2013 -> 08:59 AM) Thanks brother. Yeah I know but part of me feels like I owe to my body to not eat that s*** anymore since I've been doing it for so long. I feel so much better to. I'm eating bananas and greek yogurt in rage at my desk right now. You'll break down one night and eat like two bags of Oreo Double Stuffs!

QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Jul 18, 2013 -> 08:51 AM) I've been doing the C25K and just finished Week 7 day one. I am planning on running my first 5K on August 4th and coincidentally it's called "The Biggest Loser 5K". So I've changed my diet around after seeing this documentary about all the shiznit in people's food and I've basically gone fruits, vegetables, and products with natural ingredients. For whatever reason, I'm craving the junk food like mad. I'm resisting of course but I was just wondering if other people who work out have the urges to tear up some junk food? Of course...it's what you've been eating for most of your life and now you've stopped eating it. You need to treat yourself to some good stuff once in awhile or you'll go nuts. The world will not end if you go have ice cream or cheetos one night. Just make sure you get back on the saddle the next day with the healthy stuff. Congrats, btw....keep it up!

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Jul 18, 2013 -> 08:08 AM) I still enjoy FB for catching up with people and reading funny things. I had to filter out things like over political and racist acquantances, and I have tried to delete steve multiple times(i just cant quit you, steve), but on the whole I still enjoy FB. I can understand why people get burned out on it though Yeah, it's good for some things, like you and Russ mentioned...but every morning when I go and read the latest postings and news, I just shake my head at the ignorance people post. Basically, I use it to keep track of everyone's kid's names and what not.

I guess sometimes I just enjoyed not knowing what everyone thinks about Rolling Stone magazine, who is going to the grocery store and when, who's kid lost their tooth last week, who is upset that their boss didn't give them a raise, and who got screwed over by the guy they picked up in the bar last night... Jeesh, I can hardly tolerate it anymore..

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 05:46 PM) No but if you say X performance is worth 5 wins above a replacement, and Y performance is worth 5 wins above a replacement, their perforances should be similar. I know the most deserving team doesn't always win, but over a course of the current 95 or so to 162, it does tend to even out. You win some you should lose, you lose some you should win. WAR is obviously flawed. WAR suggests 8 teams have played worse than the White Sox so far this year. And Cleveland, a team that is way in front of the Sox has an identical team WAR. If Chris Sale has a deservingly high WAR because he gets no runs support, the fact that no runs are being scored, should lower the other WARS accordingly. It is a fun nimber, and I will continue to look at it,but it's actual accuracy has to be questioned. This is assuming that the standings capture the best playing teams...perhaps the teams that are winning are benefitting from something other than the quantifiable results that we believe drives winning baseball teams...

QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 04:11 PM) Except "eyes" don't always agree. Adam Dunn is the perfect example. Some people will just never admit that a hitter that strike out 25-30% of the time can be good no matter what else he does. Advanced stats allow us to have a more empirical way to say that Dunn is, in fact, a good hitter. I can hold whatever position I'd like if all of our eyes are acceptable as measurement. Since people don't like arguing over eyes, we have numbers. And when we have numbers, the best numbers are better. Batting average says Dunn sucks. OBP sometimes suggests that Dunn sucks. Yet, he does not suck. We didn't need advanced stats to see that Miguel Cabrera and Mike Trout were great, but WAR told us that Trout was more valuable by quite a measure last year. It also tells us that Miggy is more valuable this year, despite being an absolutely atrocious defender. You're saying that people's eyes said Adam Dunn wasn't a valuable player before? That's nonsense.

QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 03:48 PM) Glancing at FanGraphs, you can see that while Ellsbury's bat isn't starkly more valuable than Dunn's this season (a bit less than a win), his defense and baserunning add another 1.5+ wins to his value, which is tremendous and means he's having an indubitably better season than Dunn. It seems to me the pitfall many fall into is in thinking this is the only manner in which to evaluate a player, when its simply not true

QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 03:39 PM) Well, with tablesetters, you might also look at their advanced baserunning stats. This is part of overall player value that is factored into WAR. There are several players that we often think of as good while the only advanced stats that bear out their perceived value is advanced baserunning -- which isn't a bad thing. Juan Pierre, for instance, almost never had a wRC+ in the above average column throughout his career but frequently rated as an excellent player because his fielding was frequently worth 1-2 wins and his baserunning was often worth 2-3 wins above replacement. Meanwhile, his bat was sometimes not even replacement level but he was still a very good player to have on your team. It's amazing how the advanced statistics have come along to evaluate all parts of the game. The biggest work in progress IMO is evaluating catcher defense, though there are some really promising stats coming out in that regard too. The only issue is that they aren't being updated at the rate that other defensive statistics are (I don't believe any numbers for the most sophisticated catcher defense statistics are available yet for this season). An important and sometimes confusing distinction to keep in mind is replacement level vs league average. League average, by its nature is going to be a harder standard than replacement level. There are below league average players that are above replacement level. Likewise, league average is a more easily agreed upon standard than replacement level, which is a (more) hypothetical standard. And yet Juan Pierre was widely thought of as a very good player using simple statistics and our eyes, until some of the advanced statistics determined he was not...and then more advanced statistics determined that he was. Oh thanks advanced stats!

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 02:41 PM) Yes, all this is true. I don't think the old numbers should be thrown out, so to speak, they just need to be used to answer the questions they are suited to answer (OPS needs to be thrown out though, in my opinion, because it doesn't answer the one thing it's supposed to answer). The whole reason I brought this up is because we seem to be coming back to "Adam Dunn sucks he hits .200!" vs. "Yeah but he hits 40 homers so it's worth it!" which is a very valid and important debate -- is the power worth the low average? And there's a family of stats designed to help us answer that very question that I don't think people are using. Batting average answers some questions perfectly, I just don't think it answers THIS question perfectly. Fortunately, wRC+/wOBA does. Yeah, I appreciate what you always bring to the table. Although I'm not sure wrc+/woba can provide the entire context...there has to be some value to the fact that baseball games are decided by who scores the most runs and Adam Dunn is capable of producing them extremely well in short bursts. There is a context that can be provided in simpler ways than just isn't with some of these more advanced metrics (at least not to my knowledge).

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 02:05 PM) Correct. Or, more precisely, the things that Ellsbury has done on offense would typically result in one third more win. The critical difference in this number and actual wins is the presence of context. So obviously it's possible that most of Ellsbury's hits came in crucial situations (bases loaded, bottom of the 9th, etc.) and resulted in many more wins, or vice versa for Adam Dunn, but in order to control for game situation and let us compare players on an even field, each event is given a run value based on what it produces on average. For example, a HR can obviously be worth anywhere between one run and four runs, but this year, it's been worth 2.081 runs on average, so both players get credit for 2.081 runs for every homerun they hit. So when I say Ells has contributed 10.5 runs above average, those runs are assuming all of his contributions produced average results. Which they obviously did not...but we can, god forbid, look at how many RBI and home runs each one has! I have nothing against advanced stats, in fact, I am entirely in favor of them. Sometimes I think we are a bit quick to throw out some of the older stats in favor of the new shiny ones. The fact that Dunn has been as consistent as he has in his career goes to the fact that he is going to hit 40ish home runs and knock in 90-100 ish runs regardless of how much control he has over how many people get on base or don't get on base each year. Relative to other middle of the order hitters, those are fairly favorable numbers. In fact, so much so, that not many of those hitters are going to be available on the market. Obviously Dunn comes with some warts and everyone knows what those are - we don't need wrc+ to tell us that. I applaud the use of wrc+ to determine just how much those warts affect his value, but it doesn't mean I have to live by them. When the stakes are this high and the games become fewer and fewer, there is something to the fact that Adam Dunn has hit 430 home runs in his career and I can put him at the plate or I can put Jacoby Ellsbury at the plate. In my opinion, there is a value to that that cannot be precisely quantified, but it can be quantified by the fact that this is the type of hitter Adam Dunn is, because he has been incredibly consistent in doing so over his career, and I don't need to overcomplicate it by trying to put a precise value upon him which factors in 94 different things.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 12:32 PM) Indeed. The Orioles are an example of a team that could get a ton of value from Adam Dunn if the Sox picked up some of that salary. The Rays could, too, but you;d have to assume that you;d need to pick up nearly all of the salary, and anyway they might still get nervous because of the whole Pat Burrell thing, lol. Ok, so the question the Orioles should be asking themselves is "How much value would having Adam Dunn on our team for the remainder of this year provide us?". Well, that isn't a simple question. First, you say what is the production difference between what we have now and what Dunn should provide if he continues on his current pace. Then, you ask what is that production worth. Then you have to ask what is that production worth if it allows us to make the playoffs whereas we wouldn't have without him. Then what if his production allows us to win a playoff game, a playoff series, the ALCS, the WS, etc. Then you ask yourself what is the worst case scenario. These are very complex questions with no really easy answers. Considering that Dunn has hit 38 home runs or more and knocked in 92 runs or more in 8 of the last 9 seasons, and the one outlier was not last year, and not representative of his production thus far this year, and that he is still only 33, I don't think his salary is really all that prohibitive.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 11:51 AM) Fair criticism! For wRC+, league average is always set to 100, and each point represents a 1% deviation. So, Adam Dunn's wRC+ is currently 110, meaning he is hitting 10% better than league average. Shockingly, 2013 DH's are averaging a just 107 wRC+ so far. This number is park-adjusted. wOBA works more like slash stats. It is scaled to be roughly equal to OBP, so if you're trying to judge a good or bad wOBA, ask yourself how you'd judge it if it was OBP. Adam Dunn's wOBA this year is .339, which you can compare directly to other players without the context of league average or park adjustment or whatever. What was his wRC+ last year?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 10:58 AM) I think if we were talking about the last year of his deal, maybe. But with a whole other year at $15 million? I can't see it. Again, what would Dunn get if he were a free agent right now? $5 million? $10 million? It sure wouldn't be a long term deal. Yeah, I agree, he probably wouldn't, but he's NOT a free agent. And the only way to acquire this type of impact bat NOW is to accept what he makes next year, just like any available bat that isn't in the last year of his deal. If you look at the available bats right now, with "now" being the operative word, I don't know that you're going to find one that is comparable in terms of the production he offers and the contract he brings with him. Let's just say Dunn is in the last year of his deal this year...and he was going to get a one year deal next year. What would it be for? $8 millionish? maybe 10 or 12 tops? Is the additional 5-7 million you're paying to acquire him RIGHT NOW really enough to dissuade a team? Maybe some, but not all, IMHO anyways.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 10:49 AM) When you are hitting .200, it is pretty much impossible to have even a decent OBP, all stat snobbery aside. He's an .800 OPS player with 40 home run and 90-100 rbi production....there just aren't many bats like that available. The salary isn't something to scoff at, but I don't think it's prohibitive either. I think if Dunn keeps hitting as he has been for the last two months, someone will take him off our hands come the end of the month AND give us a decent prospect or two for him. You know if we were in the race we would

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 10:45 AM) Because you are also getting 300K's, a .200ish average, and probably long stretches of horribleness where Dunn won't help you at all. Yep...