iamshack

QUOTE (winninguglyin83 @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 07:25 PM) not able to watch the game tonight. Numbers suggest Floyd looking as good as his last three starts. Does he? Pretty much.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 07:20 PM) That's what I was thinking. I doubt they are just scouting Dunn. Maybe they are looking at Morgan/Bernadina as well. I like Roger. Nyjer, not so much.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 07:23 PM) He was traded with Swisher to the Yankees. They obviously cherished him.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 07:18 PM) I think I'd prefer to bury the Twins. Being 2 out of first place but a half game up on the Twins on Friday morning would be nice. I just don't see them going anywhere.

QUOTE (qwerty @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 07:04 PM) Look at in this order. http://www.bizofbaseball.com/index.php?opt...s&Itemid=39 http://www.bizofbaseball.com/index.php?opt...s&Itemid=39 You think they are counting concession and memorabilia sales too?

QUOTE (joejoedairy @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 07:13 PM) so who would you guys rather win tonight, twins or tigers? Twins

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 07:12 PM) And finished it off telling him he was a f***ing asshole. I love how Nelson just shook his head like "Yes, I know, I know, I'm an asshole, you're right..."

Good job, Alexei

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 07:08 PM) Pretty sure Ozzie just said go f*** yourself a couple of times to Nelson. That was the best part of the whole tirade

Ozzie's awesome

What is with the umpires lately?

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 06:57 PM) But you can't see the catcher's fingers, I can not live with that. It's also just not intimate enough for my taste, feels like I have s***ty seats. Yeah, that camera sucks

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 06:52 PM) Those last two strikes to Quentin were about a inch or two off the plate. An inch or two?

QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 05:54 PM) I'm not going to read 16 pages, so I'm going to just join in the thread. This would be a f***ing great move. But if we lose this series to the Royals...well, I just don't know what to think. It's a great move to trade Flowers and Hudson for Dunn, but only if we win 2/3 against the Royals as opposed to 1/3...so we're going to base our decision on giving up 12 years of service time for 4 months based on potentially 1 game against the Royals? Makes perfect sense...

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 06:43 PM) Because if there's one guy you NEED to scout it's Adam Dunn. Especially considering we just saw him...

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 06:44 PM) Yeah, but usually, most steals are for second base and it's usually with no outs or one out, so we can basically assume. If you're around 75%, you're not hurting your team. If you're below that, don't really bother. I think a lot of teams steal with 2 outs to try and get a run in with just a single.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 06:40 PM) I don't know if they keep the count, but with two outs, the sacrifice is a lot less. If you are on first with two out, your run expectancy is .244. If you get caught stealing, you risk .244 runs obviously. If you get second base, your gain is only .1 runs. So in that situation, it might be worth trying. And you know the old saying about how you shouldn't make the first or last out at third? That makes a whole lot of sense. If you make the first out at third, you lose .8 runs. If you make the last out, you lose .34. So don't you need to adjust your percentages by when your guys get thrown out, rather than using some flat number?

QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 06:38 PM) CST_SOX: Nats writers are reporting Sox have scouts at the Washington game tonight. I love this...like we don't know the book on Adam Dunn yet?

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 06:36 PM) The thing with SBs is that the reward is often too much to risk. When you steal second from first with nobody out, your scoring probability goes up by about .25 runs. When you get caught stealing, in that same base/out state, your run expectancy goes from .95 to .297. So that's a risk of .65 runs. If you don't have a 75% success rate, it really does you no good. But what about with 2 outs? What about with 2 outs and an 0-2 count?

Gordon looked bad during that at bat, and then all of the sudden he does that. I don't know what to think with this kid.

Damn, Dayan hits the ball HARD.

How about that!

Scottie was nowhere close to catching that.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jun 29, 2010 -> 06:25 PM) The only two teams who have gotten positive production from their steals are Tampa and New York. If you're below 75% on SBs, don't bother. I still don't necessarily believe that. As for us, we've been caught an awful lot recently. We were probably closer to 75% about 10 games ago or so...

That's why I love Hawk. "Mark had a strike zone the size of a bar of soap."