harfman77

QUOTE (flavum @ May 7, 2014 -> 08:44 AM) Casey Gillaspie going to be available at 44? Probably at 74.

QUOTE (oneofthemikes @ May 6, 2014 -> 01:05 PM) How opposed (if at all) do the Sox seem to be to drafting a high schooler? Because I really believe that with Rodon's success lately he has a really good shot at going #1 overall. They grabbed Danish pretty highly last year, higher than most expected him to go. The Hahn regime has been much more willing to take chances on high school talent thus far, but it really depends on what they project each guy to be and how likely they are to get there. Aiken and Kolek by most accounts have the kind of stuff where they might reach the majors in a similar timeframe as Nola, Fedde, Hoffman, or Weaver.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ May 6, 2014 -> 12:21 PM) Yep, disregard my previous two posts. He's going to fall down draft boards. Good news: We will get one of Aiken/Rodon/Kolek Bad news: We'll have to pay them handsomely unless we can create enough smoke to fluff up other prospects. Jackson? Beede? Newcomb? Do we know who the agents (advisors) are for Kolek and Aiken? Is it likely that Boras has all three?

QUOTE (raBBit @ May 6, 2014 -> 09:44 AM) I have heard Laumann say that Rodon is far and away the best player in the draft. When Laumann was saying he loved Hoffman, he probably never imagined Rodon might be a possibility at #3. Even so, Rodon still probably isn't available at #3. I agree, I think through all of Rodons struggles he is still the favorite to go 1-1 based on his track record and tremendous stuff, I think many teams realized he has not been developed the way he should have as the NCSU coaches are really more interested in getting to the college WS than Rodon's pro potential. Kolek is the sleeper at 1-1 based on his arm and proximity.

QUOTE (raBBit @ May 5, 2014 -> 02:14 PM) Very true. I actually asked Laumann at SoxFest about the Sox approach drafting Blough and Blount (I think those were the 9th and 10th round picks) and he acknowledged that it was the plan. I agree with you that other teams will look at this as an inefficiency with the new CBA. Basically, teams are going to waste a couple picks to have an expensive, high reward lottery pick akin to the Sox last year with Michalczewski. This is pretty much the norm now in the draft though. The BJ's were the first to really do it when they had 5 of the top 60 selections in the 2012 draft. They went a little underslot on their first two picks in Davis and Stroman and then picked 5 guys that had signing concerns and then drafted 7 seniors in a row.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 5, 2014 -> 01:11 PM) Supposedly there is a real possibility no college SS will be drafted in the top 250 this year. So if you are trading Alexei, you better have some sort of alternative in your system or some available option moving forward, or you could be looking at crap at SS for the White Sox for a long time. Thats just not true, Turner will be a top 45 pick. If he is still there in the second, there is no way he gets past the Sox.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 5, 2014 -> 01:58 PM) If Semien goes down to AAA and keeps playing 2b and 3b, when those positions already have Sanchez and Davidson on them, that will tell a lot more IMO. I agree with this, the Sox plans for Marcus will be apparent when Kepp and Gillaspie are back to see what position they send him out at in AAA everyday. Personally, I think he should be playing SS until he proves he can't with the number of potential 2B in the system. If Semien can man SS, that leaves a spot open for Sanchez or Johnson down the road.

It will be pretty difficult to find a home for Alexei at the deadline this year, there are really only two teams expected to be in contention that have SS needs, the Pirates and the Reds. Neither has the payroll space to add him beyond this season.

This weeks stat update, was on vacation last week so including the last two starts: Carlos Rodon - 9 IP 6H 1R 1ER 2BB 15K v GT v CC - 6.2 IP 5H 0R 0ER 2BB 8K Season - 12 GS 1.87 ERA 86.2 IP 72H 34R 18ER 28BB 102K Tyler Beede - 5 IP 2H 0R 0ER 3BB 7K v UGA v Mizzou 5 IP 7H 3R 3ER 2BB 7K Season - DNP, DNP Jeff Hoffman - 8 IP 3H 0R 0ER 1BB 16K Season - 10 GS 2.94 ERA 67.1 IP 53H 26R 22ER 20BB 72K Sean Newcomb - 6 IP 3H 0R 0ER 2BB 5K v Binghamton v UMBC 9 IP 2H 0R 0ER 2BB 9K Season - 11 GS 0.98 ERA 73.1 IP 36H 10R 8ER 31BB 78K Rodon is turning it on when it counts, have to think he will still be the #1 pick.

I remember his name being tossed around in a potential trade a few years ago with the Yanks. Sounded like the Sox really liked him then as a guy that could be a high leverage reliever. I think he is a similar situation to Cleto, good arm, but just needs to figure out how to use it.

Andrew Mitchell.

This weeks matchups: Rodon V GT 5:30pm ESPN3 Beede v UGA 5:30pm Hoffman - Out Newcomb @ Binghamton 11am (4/26)

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Apr 24, 2014 -> 09:19 AM) keithlaw ‏@keithlaw 3m ECU right hander Jeff Hoffman will miss at least his next two starts after experiencing arm soreness during a side session yesterday. Concerning Though maybe what the Sox need to get him to make it to #3 at this point.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Apr 24, 2014 -> 08:23 AM) When is a zero strikeout game still awesome? When it's Tyler f***in' Danish. The guy is just plain different, and you have to look at the numbers more closely to fully appreciate. In yesterday's 6 innings the four hits were all ground ball singles. 2 balls in total reached the outfield in the air, both flyouts. He allowed 1 line drive. All the rest were groundouts/popouts. For the season's 20IP, he's allowed 14 singles, 3 2B, 1 3B and 0 HR - 23 total bases for a slugging % against of .284. He's an extreme groundballer, running at 69% currently, coupled with an insanely low 10% LD rate. Because of this, most of the hits he allows are, and will be, singles, and those fortunate souls will be moving station-to-station. No one has even attempted a SB against his quick delivery, and he puts himself in excellent defensive position on the mound. He has 1 WP and 0 HBP. HR's will be few - only 17% of his occasional fly balls allowed have been pulled. Other metrics indicate has plenty of swing and miss in his repertoire when he needs it, but they have him on a low pitch count, so I believe he's emphasizing his GB tendencies to maximize the innings he can go. Yes, the sample sizes are tiny at this juncture, but I won't be shocked by anything this kid does. Better IF defense behind him at the higher levels and in MLB should only help him as he advances. I vehemently disagree with some of the conservative estimates of his ceiling. This guy has few, if any, comps, and his ceiling will depend only on his health, imo. Agree, as I said in another thread, don't get too worked up about early season stats or K totals for guys in the minors. Coming out of spring training they usually have a development plan that dictates the number and types of pitches they throw. It's possible they have Tyler working on a Cutter now and limiting the use of his slider as an out pitch. The goal of the org is to develop guys and that will often come at the expense of stats and wins on the MiLB level.

QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Apr 24, 2014 -> 08:44 AM) It is just hard to give a kid $3 million knowing he needs TJ surgery. Coupled with the risk of high school pitchers already, it is not hard to see why he slid and why the Sox did not choose him. Agree that is was a difficult pick to make in that draft given where the Sox were picking, I think that they are poised to be able to take advantage of someone that slips for whatever concerns in the second round. It seems there are so many variables from 10 on that there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of separation of talent from 15-50. You know some guys are going to go, like the catchers, Freeland, Newcomb, but some of those high school arms may start to slip due to signability issues. If the Sox can pull some money out of that #3 slot they are going to get a heck of prospect in round 2.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Apr 23, 2014 -> 01:32 PM) I don't mind taking him in the 2nd, just that he's a guy that concerns be because of the baggage and other risks involved. There will likely be a few guys that slid sitting there when the Sox pick in the second, and probably without as much of the baggage that you mention. I thought Cease was interesting as some guys had him rated in the top 10. One of Touissaint, Gatewood, Chavis will likely still be there. I think Gillaspie is more likely a 3rd round target due to his defensive limitations.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Apr 23, 2014 -> 10:07 AM) Cease sounds like an incredibly talented player, but I don't like reading about high schoolers already needing Tommy John, I don't like seeing a non-physical frame with most of it generated via athleticism and arm speed, and I don't like seeing high-effort delivery. Some of those things can be altered to improve, but that's a ton of risk. Actually when you say all of those things together, Tim Lincecum comes to mind as that guy. There were the same concerns about him coming out, and it appears that maybe those things have caught up with him, but he had a good ride in between.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Apr 23, 2014 -> 10:07 AM) Cease sounds like an incredibly talented player, but I don't like reading about high schoolers already needing Tommy John, I don't like seeing a non-physical frame with most of it generated via athleticism and arm speed, and I don't like seeing high-effort delivery. Some of those things can be altered to improve, but that's a ton of risk. There is a ton of risk, I think it is similar to Giolito when he was drafted by the Nastys. He was a legit top 5 prospect that slid becuase of and elbow injury, and now he is their #1 prospect. Cease is a guy that has top 10-15 talent that you may slide because of his injury but if the risk pans out you are getting two top 15 pitchers out of this years draft, if not, second rounders don't work out that often anyway. I think the Sox are in a position to be creative with the draft pool that they have. I doubt they bite due to the risks, but if I were RH it is something that I would at least consider.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Apr 22, 2014 -> 01:59 PM) I wonder if the Sox would look at someone like Dylan Cease or Derek Fisher that were projected in the mid-first round but lost a chunk of their seasons due to injury. If you save some money at #3, making a run at a guy like that makes a ton of sense. http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y20...=mm_mlb_players MLB Write up on Cease Scouting Grades* (future): Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 55 Cease is one of the hardest throwing high school pitchers in the 2014 Draft class, but he was dealt a significant setback this spring. He suffered an elbow injury that has kept him out for several weeks and could ultimately require him to undergo Tommy John surgery. When healthy, Cease throws his fastball from 91-95 mph, topping out at 97 mph. He doesn't have a physical frame, instead generating his velocity with athleticism and arm speed. There is some effort to his delivery, and the rest of his game may remain inconsistent until he refines it. His mid-70s curveball will range from a below-average to an above-average pitch, and his changeup shows flashes of becoming an effective offering, but he'll need to throw it more often. Cease, who plays with his twin brother at Milton High, is committed to Vanderbilt. Fisher: Scouting Grades* (future): Hit: 60 | Power: 60 | Run: 50 | Arm: 40 | Field: 40 | Overall: 60 One of the top high school hitting prospects in the 2011 Draft, Fisher lasted until the sixth round because of signability concerns and turned down a substantial offer from the Rangers to attend Virginia. He failed to hit .300 in his first two seasons with the Cavaliers but took a step forward in the Cape Cod League this summer, cutting down on his strikeouts and leading the best summer college circuit with a .453 on-base percentage. He has shown more pop at Virginia than he did with wood bats on the Cape, and he projects as a plus hitter in terms of both average and raw power. Fisher's bat will have to carry him, because he's a slightly above-average runner who figures to lose a step, and he's a below-average defender. His lack of arm strength and defensive instincts limit him to left field.

I think those are wrong as well, but nevertheless, it is still an issue with the organization. It is a product of the players that the Sox have acquired over the years, huge power with a lot of swing and miss in their bat. May and Engle are guys that are counter to that philosophy and I think they are just struggling to start the year and their rates will normalize as they adjust to their respective levels.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Apr 22, 2014 -> 01:55 PM) http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/thr...ikes-week-10-4/ Talking about possible 2nd rounders, nice write up Conor's younger brother, Casey. Sounds like he's got a nice bat, but he's a 1B and "he'll never be particularly rangy" at that position. I wonder if the Sox would look at someone like Dylan Cease or Derek Fisher that were projected in the mid-first round but lost a chunk of their seasons due to injury. If you save some money at #3, making a run at a guy like that makes a ton of sense.

QUOTE (QuickJones81 @ Apr 22, 2014 -> 01:43 PM) On the scary side: Andrew Mitchell: ERA = 6.00, FIP = 6.99, BABIP = 0.217 Myles Jaye: ERA = 5.50, FIP = 4.66, BABIP = 0.259 Chris Beck: ERA = 5.91, FIP = 4.57, BABIP = 0.217 I have high hopes for all 3 of these guys and they are off to pretty brutal starts. You have to take all of these things with a grain of salt, especially at this point in the season. They may be on development plans where they are not throwing their best pitches in order to develop their other pitches, especially coming out of spring training. Statistics are not always an accurate measure, especially in the development process for pitchers. Excessive BB's, HP's, and WP's are red flags, but the rest can be pretty skewed.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Apr 22, 2014 -> 10:05 AM) Not a chance. Nick Gordon, the son of Tom Gordon, will be the first SS off the board in the 8-15 range. They had to have meant long term SS. Gatewood will go in the top 50, Gordon and Chavis as well, though none of them are locks at position long term.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 22, 2014 -> 07:48 AM) I want to see Davidson. I just want to stress that Micah and Trayce still are starting seasons in AA. This is Micah's first arrival there and it's Trayce's first time having a solidly successful start. As usual the instinct is to push them higher immediately, but either of those guys making the bigs even in September requires them jumping Charlotte almost entirely I'd like to see Trayce and Micah in Charlotte to begin the second half of the season, they may get a cup of coffee in September, but I think Johnson in particular would have a hard time finding AB's.

I want Mitchell, so the org can finally move on from him, and Snodgress as I think he can be a piece of next years bullpen. The rest of the guys need more development time and there is no reason to rush them up. Davidson needs to get his head on straight before he should get the call.