harfman77

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Apr 21, 2014 -> 04:13 PM) Wonder how much of that velocity drop was due to the 134 pitch outing the week before? Otherwise, you're talking someone throwing the same velocity as a Quintana or Santiago...but with a nastier swing and miss out pitch than either. The velocity has not been the issue, more of the command. He has had a hard time getting the FB over for strikes, so he is essentially a one pitch guy right now and that won't fly in pro ball even with an 80 slider. As has been cited in this thread, the problems are likely related to his relative mis-use by the NCSU coaching staff. They are trying to win games now knowing they are losing two first rounders and are doing what is best for their program not what is best for Rodon developmentally. I think Rodon eventually works out to the ace everyone thought he was going to be, but it is going to take more time as he develops his other pitches to make them at least ML average and gets his command in check.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 21, 2014 -> 02:14 PM) I think this is the biggest mistake/misrepresentation of stats. I don't think any are predictive in nature. I think they are all reactionary based on history. They are only predictive to the extent that history repeats itself in the same form that it has already happened. So, they are not evaluation tools, but things we can use as old men to argue about who was better when we were young.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Apr 21, 2014 -> 11:10 AM) Frank could hit any pitch that hit the plate out of the park. I have memories of him hitting fastballs and sliders on the black over the right field wall. Frank had such a great presence at the plate, he would epitomize the antithesis of a freeswinger. He had one of a kind plate coverage and rarely would even consider swinging at a ball outside of the zone. Then when he got the pitch he wanted he made solid contact consistently. He had his share of moonshots, but he always had a bunch of HR's that seemed to be still on the way up when they hit the seats. He was never quite the same after the torn triceps injury in 2001, but prior to that there was not a better hitter in baseball.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Apr 21, 2014 -> 10:50 AM) Thanks for all the updates Iowa. I am feeling pretty great about the Sox position. Either we get Hoffman (who I think might be #1 on Sox big board) or one of the HS arms, with Rodon as the wildcard. If you were to tier the players in the draft at this point, Tier 1 would be Rodon, Kolek, Aiken, Hoffman, and Jackson; the Sox are bound to get one of that tier. The Sox are really sitting in a good spot as they are going to get a legit 1-1 candidate for a fraction of the cost.

New ESPN Draft Blog http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1596 Talks about Hoffmans start last week as a 1-1 performance. "The most likely landing spots for Hoffman right now are to either the Chicago White Sox or Chicago Cubs, with the Seattle Mariners being his absolute floor, but if he shows this kind of stuff over the last month of the season, he's got a chance to go in the first two picks to either the Houston Astros or Miami Marlins." Rodon's confounding season: "He gave up just one run on six hits in his eight innings of work, walking three and striking out seven on 115 pitches. Once again, though, his fastball command was below-average, the pitch sat 90-93 mph, and the world-class slider wasn't on constant display like it was against Duke a week ago. It'd still be a surprise if Rodon wasn't the first pitcher to come off the board come June, and it's difficult see him getting past the Chicago Cubs with the fourth pick. " Trea Turner ""There have been days [seeing Turner] where I've thought he looked like a top-10 pick," an AL East scout said. "But there are days where I'm not sure I'd give him much more than a 50 [on the 20-80 scouting scale] grade. " Kyle Freeland from Evansville is a top 15 pick with some of the most dominating numbers (87/4 K:BB) projects as a mid-rotation guy. Questions about his mechanics due to a low arm slot. Brandon Finnegan from TCU is projected to go in the 5-15 range, there are durability concerns due to his size. The final bit is on the race for top C in the draft between Max Pentecost and IU's Kyle Schwarber. Schwarber has the better bat and power profile, but may not be able to stick at the position. He has been splitting time in LF, but scouts don't believe he can handle the position as a pro. Pentecost seems like a lock to stay at C, but there is not the upside of Schwarbers bat.

This weeks stat update: Carlos Rodon - 8 IP 7H 4R 3ER 5BB 7K Season - 10 GS 2.41 ERA 71 IP 61H 36R 19ER 26BB 79K Tyler Beede - 7 IP 10H 6R 6ER 1BB 6K Season - 10 GS 3.75 ERA 60 IP 49H 37R 25ER 21BB 62K Jeff Hoffman - 8 IP 3H 0R 0ER 1BB 16K Season - 10 GS 2.94 ERA 67.1 IP 53H 26R 22ER 20BB 72K Sean Newcomb - 7 IP 3H 1R 0ER 4BB 7K Season - 9 GS 1.23 ERA 58.1 IP 31H 10R 8ER 27BB 64K Newcomb has a bounceback start, control issues are probably going to push him down the board, maybe to the point of the Sox picking him up in round 2. Hoffman has the start everyone has been waiting for albeit against an inept MTSU lineup. Beede has probably worked himself into the second tier with guy like Nola and Grant Holmes. Rodon still has ace potential, but has to clean up his command.

QUOTE (oneofthemikes @ Apr 18, 2014 -> 12:38 PM) That's really tough. I personally would prefer Aiken, but I think the Sox prefer Hoffman because he will be ready to help the big league club sooner than Aiken would. Tough call for me, but I have not seen them pitch the way the Sox scouts have. They could both be three years away from the rotation, they both have top shelf ceilings and their floors are about as low as you would consider for the #3 pick. I call them both up and see which one will sign for the best deal and take that one and use the extra money to sign someone that slips from the first round.

This weeks primer - Rodon v BC 5:30 p.m. Hoffman v MTSU - Thursday Beede @ Arkansas - 5:05 p.m. Newcomb v Albany - noon Saturday

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 04:02 PM) Pitchers have relatively little control over BABIP. The typical range is .290 to .300. Certain factors can controlled by the pitcher can have minor impacts to this and bump it higher or lower, but not to even close a degree as .118. And certainly Cleto's never shown that he has any particular ability to induce such weak contact that it makes his BABIP abnormally low over a long period of time, you have to go back to 2011 to find any stay he had at any level where his BABIP was lower than .300. In his 9 inning spell in the majors with the Cardinals in 2012 he had a BABIP of .474, about the same over the norm as his current one is below. It's just random, lucky variance. He has most decidedly not been the best bullpen guy this year, not before last night and certainly not after. And even if he had, that doesn't mean you take that extremely low sample size and immediately bump him into a high-leverage reliever, ignoring his extremely recent history of absolutely awful control problems - again, the second worst BB/9 in all of minor league baseball last year. I don't think anyone on the coaching staff cares what his minors stats were last year. The book on him has always been that he has a great arm with little control. His control has been much improved thus far (until last night) and sometimes you have to put a guy in a spot to see how he responds.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 02:24 PM) I'm kinda with you here. Maybe better than the current version of Downs, too. But I'll get over it. Veal is probably the guy they feel they can slip through waivers.

New ESPN Draft blog up on finding talent in unlikely places. http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/mlb-draft/post?id=1516 Hawaii - Talks about Kodi Medeiros, wicked slider, probably destined for bullpen with arm slot and lack of a third pitch. Nebraska - Jackson Reetz - “I think [Reetz] has a chance to be a very quality backstop,” an NL Central scout said. “I see two 55 [on the 20-80 scouting sale] tools in his hit and power, and he’s got one of the stronger arms of any prep catcher I’ve seen this summer or spring.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 01:15 PM) He's been "unhittable" because his BABIP is .118. Why is his BABIP .118? What are the type of balls in play are turning into outs? It appears he has had a lot of pop-ups because hitters are able to square his pitches. Cleto's been the best bullpen guy this year thus far, no reason he shouldn't have been the guy until he crapped the bed.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 02:07 PM) I'm actually surprised it was Veal. Would of liked to see Downs or Belisario get sent down. Roster still at 39 with this move right? Downs is on a $4M contract, he is going nowhere until July.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 02:04 PM) Yeah, but Veal has no options left so he's vulnerable to waivers. So down to one LHP? I would guess the Petricka goes down soon for Purcey.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 11:06 AM) He didn't do that with Cleto. I'm not sure why Lindstrom didn't start off the 9th. SoxTalk has spoken and Lindstrom can no longer be brought into save situations. QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 11:35 AM) and Webb the 8th. QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 01:37 PM) What I didn't understand is why Petricka was used in the 8th inning when we are up by 2? He just pitched the night before and he wasnt even on the roster the start of the season and we are using him in one of the most important part of the game? Should have been Webb I think the goal was to give Webb the night off until RV's hand was forced. As I have said, this bullpen is a work in progress, they are going to take their lumps, but I think they have some pieces to be a top flight bullpen next season. Cleto/Guerra in the 7th, Jones in the 8th, and Webb in the ninth sounds pretty strong in the long run, bring up Leesman and Purcey as the LH'ers and Rienzo as the long man and it should be pretty stout. The rest of the guys are here to see if they can be fixed and peddled for spare parts. The team may be ready to contend next season but this year is all about developing guys to be contributors in the Sox window of contention.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 09:07 AM) I think Aiken has to be in there. I think he's a lock to be drafted in the first two picks. If he falls to three, I hope the Sox jump all over him. Ideally to me, Rodon goes 1-1 like he was suppose to, Miami takes one of the high schoolers, then the Sox have a choice between Hoffman or Aiken/Kolek. I am veryyyy interested to see them make that decision. There is always a possibility that there is a wildcard that jumps into the mix ahead of the Sox as well. Just throwing this out there, but Aaron Nola is putting together a pretty impressive season and his older brother is in the Marlins organization. The baseball draft is so hard to predict because so many scouts see different things in different players and are looking for different attributes to fit their system or ballpark. There are going to be some really good options on the board when the Sox pick.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 08:24 AM) Semien now hitting .206 with a .275 OBP and on pace to whiff 205 times. If Beckham did this, posters would be calling for his release. Semien does it, he's a professional hitter with nothing to prove in the minor leagues. LMAO A lot of fans are like two year olds, they want the new shiny thing because some of the luster has worn off the thing they already have.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 08:03 AM) On the facebooks, I suggested 40 years, $1 billion. Thoughts? No way he would take that, he would probably be insulted by such a low ball offer.

I still have a strong feeling that Kolek goes 1-1. Just speculation on my part, but a local kid with a big fastball, the first prep rhp to go 1-1, and the likelihood of a hometown discount so that Lunhow can spread more money through the draft, make me think he will be the pick. What the Marlins would do, I have no idea, Rodon may seem like a strong piece for the rotation with Fernandez, Heaney, and Alvarez, and would be ready to help in the same window as the others that are already there.

QUOTE (Bruce_Blixton @ Apr 16, 2014 -> 11:17 AM) This sustained hot start has made me a believer in Courtney Hawkins and will even go out on a limb and say that the aggressive assignment last year was actually beneficial to his development. It looks like they're taking the same approach with Barnum, it'll be interesting to see if he struggles as badly as Hawkins last year and how he'll handle it. There is no way to disprove what you are saying, but I will never believe that. If Hawkins spends the first half of the season gaining confidence in Kanny before making the jump, I believe the transition would have went much smoother, and he may have been ready for AA coming into this season. Seeing the results that teams have had locally with allowing kids to play low A for at least half a season, and they were the best prospects in baseball, leads me to believe that Hawkins was mis-handled.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Apr 15, 2014 -> 10:53 PM) Scoreless bullpen! It may have only been 2 1/3 innings, but at least it's progress. Hitless bullpen.

QUOTE (Dunt @ Apr 16, 2014 -> 09:02 AM) Right, and his arbitration clock hasnt even started yet, whereas Reed is a year closer to free agency. If you can make a trade for a potential franchise player at 3rd for a closer, you do it. On the other side, if you are the Dbacks, if you can trade someone you see as a busted prospect for a legit ML closer, you do that too. Davidson is doing everything he can to make the Dbacks look good in that trade hitting .224/.321/.347 with a 45% K rate at AAA. I think it was a good trade for the Sox, but there is still a significant probability that Davidson will never make enough contact to be a ML regular.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Apr 16, 2014 -> 08:44 AM) No way the Sox make him a QO. He would accept that in a second as no other team would come close to giving him that kind of money and if he rejected, no team would sign him because of the draft pick compensation. If he accepts, you are in the same situation you were entering this season, you can trade him either at the winter meetings or at the deadline. The money is there to bring him back, and its not like there is anyone in the minors that is knocking down the door to step in at DH next season. There is some risk, and the possibility of some reward. It allows you to only keep him for a season and then have that money come off the books when there may be a better crop of FA's to use the money to sign.

Looking at second round possibilities, I think the focus will be a HS bat after getting a pitcher in the first round. I think the Sox look at Braxton Davidson, Alex Verdugo, Jackson Reetz, Michael Chavis, and Greg Deichman to see which of them slip out of the first round.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Apr 15, 2014 -> 07:02 PM) No runs allowed for Beck, but only 2 strikeouts in 7 innings. 5 strikeouts in 17 innings on the year. I wonder if they were restricting his pitches in his first couple outings to try and develop some of his secondary pitches.