harfman77

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 11:28 AM) Bench: Konerko Catcher Keppinger De Aza Problems: No backup SS, no room for any prospects to make the team. The more I think about it, though -- why not wait for your promising callups to miss the Super Two deadline? Might be that's when the "odd man out" gets dumped. This also gives you time to build a market for the players you want to deal to make room on the roster. There are going to injuries, players that don't produce the way teams that expect to be in contention are expecting them to and Hahn can call with his assets and get an inflated return. Don't throw away any assets until your hand if forced. If worst comes to worst, Kep can probably hit the DL for a while to strengthen his shoulder.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 11:37 AM) If you assume that the 25 man roster will carry 12 pitchers and 2 catchers, there are 11 spots left for other position players. Dunn, Abreu, Beckham, Ramirez, Gillaspie, DeAza, Eaton, AGarcia, Konerko, Keppinger, and Viciedo either can't or won't be sent to the minors. That's 11 guys right there, so you can keep all of them, but then you really have no backup shortstop. One out of DeAza, Viciedo, or Keppinger needs to get moved to make room on the roster for LGarcia. I think we enter the season with the same backup SS we had last season. Beckham is your emergency SS, Kep can play there in a pinch as well, other than that, they won't carry one. Sure they could still make a deal that would alleviate the roster crunch, but on paper at this point, your roster is: Abreu, Beckham, Dunn, Ramirez, Gillaspie, A Garcia, Eaton, Viciedo, De Aza, Konerko, and Keppinger.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 11:20 AM) The Yankees are not giving up slot money this year. Why not? They are going to ignore the system anyway, so it really doesn't make any difference. They are said to be looking at spending $15M+ in the the international market, so they are going to accrue the most harsh penalties anyway.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 10:04 AM) Yeah, as it stands, Gillaspie will need to be exposed to waivers unless the Sox are planning to DFA Keppinger if they can't move him. Why would this be a need? Its definitely an option, but far from a certainty. Gillaspie is likely the opening day 3B, it would seem there are other options to be sent to AAA that would not require exposing anyone to waivers.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 10:30 AM) Trading Beckham for Murphy, having Kepp start at 2B to get a groove back and up his value, then flipping Keppinger at the break if/when Semien or Carlos Sanchez is ready... that's a pretty ideal scenario to me. Similar move with Davidson could be done too, let Gillaspie hit a bit, if he completely fails release him, if he does something trade him and Davidson comes up. This avoids Super 2 status for Semien and Davidson as a nice side effect. Leury Garcia can be the utility IF, which is future anyway. We already have JR Murphy, except we call him Josh Phegley. Cervelli is intriguing for his defensive prowess and ability to handle pitchers, but does not have a ton of value as his profile is that of a backup. Keppinger for Cervelli, $25K to cover the cost of Nieto, and international slot money works for me.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 03:38 PM) Carlos Gomez, Curtis Granderson, Brad Ziegler. Hawk, is that you?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 25, 2014 -> 10:46 AM) Jim Callis ‏@jimcallisMLB 44m Hoffman (college) definitely over Kolek (HS) @BigCelio: who makes more of an immediate impact for @whitesox T.Kolek or J.Hoffman? #mlbdraft Hoffman could be in the majors by the end of the season in some role as Sale did, Kolek could be a guy who moves fast though and reach the majors at a younger age. I would not be surprised to see Kolek on the Walker/Bundy/Bradley timelines.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 25, 2014 -> 10:48 AM) I see a couple requests for big boards, aka org depth charts, or the like. Those would be pretty huge and tough for a Podcast format, in terms of discussions. However, I think I can do an article on it and put the information up on FutureSox later in ST, if people would like to see that. Sorry, meant that for the taking suggestions thread, not podcast.

An organizational depth chart along with expected arrival dates.

QUOTE (StRoostifer @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 11:16 PM) I've read up a bit on Kolek and from what I gathered he was raised on a farm so he has work ethic. Also his size and selection of pitches has been compared to the likes of a young Kerry Wood. If the Sox were to draft him we can be greatful Dusty Baker isn't the manager. If Rodon and Hoffman go 1/2 I'm hoping the Sox draft Kolek. That's as of now, that can change depending on how all these kids do between now and draft day. Kolek's biggest issue is that he is not very projectable, his frame is very mature, though it doesn't all look like good weight. On the other side, he already has elite velo, and a pretty good arsenal. I could see him sneaking in as the #1 pick if he will give the Astros a hometown discount. As a local kid, it would help a lot with their marketing efforts and he has a chance to be a top of the rotation arm in the not to distant future.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 04:36 PM) One thing that does stand out in that list to me, is there are really only a couple busts. And Sleeth had injury issues. Bottom line for me is, the #4 pick has a very good chance of getting you a useful major leaguer, and a small but significant chance of getting you more than that. Chances of a bust are about 20%. It really matters how you define bust in this instance. If you believe that the #3 pick should be an elite player, the hit rate is only 30%. If you say that anyone that makes a ML roster is not a bust, than yes you are correct. It also really depends what you mean by useful, is Phil Humber really useful? He had a pretty good season, but overall is a guy that has bounced around.

Paulino essentially has a two year deal if he performs, I would expect him to stay with the Sox and either be dealt this off-season or at the deadline next season. Not many teams will trade for Paulino for the stretch run this season given the wall he will likely hit when his innings accrue. Boggs or Lindstrom are the pitchers that are most likely moved at the deadline this season.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 04:25 PM) Wouldn't they just cut like half of those guys to free up a spot? Seems like dumping someone on the DL would be more harmful because of missed playing time. Agree, I would expect some of those guys to be DFA'ed to make space for some guys that are waived by other teams. A majority of those guys have ceilings as low leverage relievers at this point. Coop has already tried to fix'em.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 12:23 PM) The problem with Bauer is that his disappointment so far is not at all indicative of characteristics of a typical number 3 pick. Tons of players went after him that are way better prospects right now. His situation is an outlier because of his makeup. True, goes to show the myriad of factors to account for when selecting a player that high. He has a ton of talent, but that isn't all you need to be successful. All picks are tenuous at best, the #3 position is no guarantee of getting a great player. Just to expand the scope to ten years for more of a sample size: 2013 Gray 2012 Zunino 2011 Bauer 2010 Machado 2009 Tate 2008 Eric Hosmer 2007 Josh Vitters 2006 Evan Longoria 2005 Jeff Clement 2004 Phillip Humber 2003 Kyle Sleeth Just sayin, this pick is no slam dunk. There is a gigantic list of players that slide that have success as well, its all about identification and scouting. You have to evaluate make-up, projection, ceiling, lots of factors that aren't accounted for when these mock drafts are created.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 11:56 AM) A rookie is doing well to average 6 innings a start, so even if he makes 32 starts that's 192 innings, which is only 13% above what he did last year. I expect Sale, Quintana, and Danks to be over 200 innings, but that's pretty rare for a rookie. Paulino had 27.2 IP last season, 51.1 IP in 2012 and a career high 139.1 IP in 2011.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 11:53 AM) This. Only with multiple pitchers incapable of getting to 200, but who need to build innings, should it even be considered. Isn't that what Johnson and Paulino are?

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 11:01 AM) Trevor Bauer is going to be 23 this year and struggled with command in his first go around at AAA, and he's thrown 33.1 innings in the majors. He's not a busted prospect. I'd give up just about anyone in the White Sox system to get him. You'd be crazy if you wouldn't too. Mike Zunino has 193 PAs at the MLB level. While he was struggling to hit for average in AAA, he absolutely killed the ball the previous year. If he busts, it won't be because of how the Mariners handled him but because he couldn't handle the majors. Again, I'd give up just about anybody in the White Sox system for him. I am not giving up most of the top ten guys in the Sox system for him. Thompson yes, everyone else, probably not, as I think they all have as good or better shot at contributing at the ML level or have a higher ceiling. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have him in our system in case he can figure it out, but AAA team have been blasting him. He could be Homer Bailey who had a similar profile, struggled, and then finally figured it out (or so his contract says), be Mike Pelfrey a highly ranked guy who ends up as "a guy", end up as a bullpen guy, or flame out altogether, but he has gone from top 10 to top 20 to out of the top 100 in three years, and the alleged reason that Diamondbacks gave up on him is that he would not accept coaching, making it harder to correct his issues. Still disagree on Zunino, Mariners basically picked him and threw him into the majors six weeks into his first full season as a pro. I do not agree with aggressive timelines that value a teams success over the development of a player, as it likely hurts your longterm ability to compete. No, he is not a bust at this point, and maybe he gets some more seasoning with Buck in the fold, but throwing him to the wolves with limited experience is the same thing the Sox did with Hawkins, and it is not a good path for long term success.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 11:36 AM) Johnson threw nearly 170 innings in 29 starts in 2013. Not likely that he throws many more innings than that this year. Isn't it typical for a starter to get ~200 innings/season based on a five man rotation, barring injuries?

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 09:41 AM) I don't know how you can say there are 2 busts from this group with Zunino on his way. Bauer was the 14th or 17th ranked prospect LAST YEAR, so to say he's a bust is incredibly premature to say the least. Zunino was drafted a year and a half ago and he's already in the majors. Saying he's even on his way to being a bust is absurd too. The only guy you can say for sure has busted is Tate, and that's been injuries, plus I recall some people suggesting that was a reach at 3 too. The floor has really dropped out on Bauer. He could still be something, but at this point he would be considered a busted prospect. That doesn't mean he will never be anything, Chris Davis showed last year that players can come back from "bust" status to be elite players. Its been two years since his ML debut and the Indians signed a free agent SP that keeps him from having a slot in the rotation this season, at least at this point. IF Zunino busts, its really on how the Mariners handled him. The guy hit .227 at AAA and the Mariners promoted him to the majors out of desperation. The reason he is on the way there is total mismanagement of his development. Can he overcome it? Sure. But it is a tough hill to climb. The guy had 51 AB's at AA and struggled to adjust at AAA. Agree it is too early to tell, but with the way the Mariners handled him and their desperation to win now, puts some additional hurdles in his way. Tate was in the mold of Jared Mitchell, and elite athlete - was committed to UNC to play WR - that was valued for his toolbox over his actual baseball skills. IIRC, Padres had to go overslot to buy him out of his football commitment. Has the same profile, struggles with pitch recognition, long list of injuries, and most thought contacted issues would be addressed once he was devoted to one sport full time.

QUOTE (Señor Ding-Dong @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 10:28 AM) Yeah, but Sanchez has been playing pro ball since he was 16 or 17 and had four seasons of experience prior to his full season in Charlotte last year. Not exactly the same situation as Hawkins. As far as phenoms who have made it to the majors at Hawkins' age, well, he's raw and we all knew that from the start. So again, it's not really comparable. Hawkins simply wasn't ready for A+ and his age, while maybe not the deciding factor, was a factor nonetheless. We hold it against guys who are too old for their level, and the same is applied to players who are too young for their level given their "rawness." Thats exactly my point. Baseball skill development and age are not the same thing. BB through a player who was too raw into A+ last season, regardless of how old he is. Sanchez's skills had developed to the point where he should have been 20 in AA ball to start the season last year, because he was advanced.

How about a six man rotation? The Sox have used it before, and if you are not contending it can save some of the wear and tear on your guys. Especially with Johnson and Paulino scheduled to throw more innings than ever before. I am not sure that Rienzo is even the sixth guy, but it might not be a terrible way to get a look at some guys while not over taxing anyones arm. Really doubt it will happen, but an out of the box way to handle the situation.

Probably Trout. It was really fun to watch him play A ball here. You could tell he was something special. A ball is for the most part, terrible baseball, but there are some guys that stand out that you can tell are going to make it. Buxton played here last year, and he will have a pretty good career, he will probably end up being similar to Adam Jones.

ADA and Lindstrom for Carson Smith, Tyler Marlette, and Julio Morban. Smith can make the team this year in the bullpen, Marlette gives the team a legit C prospect, and Morban could be the everyday LF next season.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 08:59 AM) While I agree that developmental level is a much better point here than calendar age, I wouldn't go as far as to say age wasn't a factor at all. There is an aspect to this which involves maturity, as a person, not just as a ballplayer. That doesn't mean it is impossible for a 19 year old to handle A+, but it does increase the risk of struggles. A 19 year old who just left high school simply lacks some maturity and problem-solving skills that a 22 year old does not, on average. That plays a role. I am not trying to say it wasn't a factor, obviously inexperience contributed significantly, but throughout this thread people saying he is 20 like it is a reason for his performance. A factor, yes, the reason, no.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Feb 21, 2014 -> 08:21 PM) I wouldn't be so quick to look at Hoffman and Turner as if they will be the #2 and #3 options come June. I do think Hoffman will be a top 5 pick but I am not so sure about Turner. Kolek is pretty close to a surefire top 5 pick to me and I can see him hopping Turner at some point in the mock draft rankings. Kolek is a typical Marlins pick, they love upside high school players.