harfman77

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Mar 21, 2014 -> 12:52 PM) Or significantly less according to some. The last line in Callis' updated description: "Others compare him to Jake Peavy and think he could rush through the Minors." I'm in this camp, obviously. We will know soon enough how aggressive they're going to be with Tyler - I think he finishes the season with more than a cup-o-coffee in B'Ham, after being unchallenged in A and A+ ball. Debuts in '15 as a 20 y.o. To me, 2-3 years is flying through the minors for a HS prospect. I could see him handle both levels of A ball this season and start in AA next season, at which point he could be a September call up in 2016, but that is only if every goes right, which it seldom does.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Mar 21, 2014 -> 10:08 AM) Do you have a link? Interesting how far Hoffman has fallen in his list, especially considering how high he was on him. I don't know much about Grant Holmes..HS arm? Looks like we have our choice of arms, fantastic news because I think that would be great value selecting that high. It is an insider article. http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/...-2014-mlb-draft

Good list.

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Mar 21, 2014 -> 09:19 AM) Rebuilding, especially a team as bad as last year, is not a 1 year process. Hahn has made changes that has added youth to several key offensive spots in RF, IB, 3B and CF. Now hopefully 3 or even 4 develop into full-time players. By next year he can hopefully find a closer, another starter and most importantly a catcher. He should also have made decisions on LF, SS and 2B. I look at this year as developmental, next year as vastly improving and 2016 as contending again. Totally agree, I am anticipating the SoxTalk meltdown in June saying that Hahn is moron who acquired a bunch of bums when some of these guys start to struggle through their first full seasons. Offensively this is going to be a season of us taking our licks and getting the some of the kinks worked out. We are starting 3 rookies to start the season and could be up to 5 or six by August 1, this is going to be a year for getting guys accustomed to the majors.

Law has his first prospect rankings (top 50) for the draft up: 1 Brady Aiken 2 Kolek 3 Rodon 4 Beede 5 Grant Holmes - Plus fastball that he can run up to 98 with great feel and control. 6 Hoffman 7 Jackson Others of notw 15 Newcomb 19 Gatewood 20 Turner 39 Toussaint

This weeks games: Newcomb - v Binghamton 11 am (Saturday) - Named America East Pitcher of the Week Hoffman @ Charlotte 5 pm - Live stats at uncgspartans.com Rodon @ Maryland 5pm Beede @ #21 Miss. St - TV CSS - 6:30 pm

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Mar 21, 2014 -> 08:59 AM) Why would Petricka be worth anything to them? I'm not even convinced they'd trade Turner for Semien and Micah Johnson. Would anything they've done in the last two years suggest they would want to take on DeAza's contract? The fact that they let him go for nothing...would point to the fact that there's no way they're going to be embarassed a second time and pay through the teeth to bring him back when he's no longer a cheap option. I dont think it is the same FO staff that let him walk, and when he left he was coming off of some significant injuries and no one was sure if he could still be a ML player.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 20, 2014 -> 05:21 PM) Seeing the numbers out of AZ reinforces my belief that Hahn did not do enough to address the rotation this winter. It's a long season for pitchers when your home park is the Cell, if nothing else they needed an innings-eater. Also, it's an embarrassment to this rebuild that Axelrod was even invited to camp. If you are looking at ST numbers, there is no way you can equate Danks and a hole in the rotation. Johnson may be a work in progress, but 90% of rookies are. Paulino is a question mark, granted, but the fifth rotation spot is not going to make or break this team, if it turns out that the only between the Sox and contention in mid-July is Felipe Paulino, Hahn has the assets to make and upgrade at that time. I think a lot here are underrating our pitching and overrating our offense going into this season.

Definitely worth a flier at the right price. Mariners need another OF to go with Yelich and Stanton until Marisnic is ready and depth in the bullpen. A De Aza+Petricka package may work for them. The just signed Garret Jones to man 1B, so I am not sure they are going to be willing to trade for a replacement already.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 20, 2014 -> 04:20 PM) Danks, Johnson, and Paulino = crater-sized holes in the rotation. Wrong.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 20, 2014 -> 04:14 PM) Just a point that when it comes to the ability to acquire top tier talent the Sox should not be in the conversation unless they put Sale on the block. Lets be careful what we call top tier talent than. Turner has a lot of upside, but there is a reason that the Marlins have him on the block instead of their other young SP's. His K/BB and WHIP aren't great and his numbers are aided by playing in the park and division he does. Turner is not even table stakes for Sale, the bidding would start with Fernandez. Viciedo is probably not enough based on fit, but the Sox have other guys that would fit the bill.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Mar 20, 2014 -> 03:51 PM) But the Marlins do not have leverage. If they don't want him on the major league roster, they'll lose him for absolutely nothing if they don't trade him. More than likely, teams will be willing to give up more than the Sox, but we don't know that yet. If your options are Dayan Viciedo or nothing, you are taking Dayan Viciedo. Odds are they get Gregorious for him.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 20, 2014 -> 03:40 PM) Where do you rank strikeouts with a runner on third and less than two outs? Higher than a hit into DP. K's are bad because they do not translate into productive outs, but not all outs that are not K's are productive outs either. This was his profile when KW traded Javy for him, guy with a lot of power that strikes out too much. The only thing that has really changed are the questions as to whether his defense would be good enough to stay at C.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 19, 2014 -> 03:13 PM) I've been slowly updating my big board. Not going to paste the monstrosity in here again just yet (might save that for an FS article closer to the end of ST), but a few things stood out in terms of what units on what teams to watch... --I really like the probable Kannapolis rotation as something interesting to watch. Lots of talented arms all with broad spectrums of variable assessment: Danish, Mitchell, Brennan, Goldberg, Freudenberg --Birmingham rotation seems solid the first 4, and all are guys who could be in Chicago within a year, so that is worth watching: Beck, Bassitt, Snodgress, Jaye. No idea on the 5th though, could be any of Cose (who is wildly inconsistent), Recchia (one of my deep sleepers), McCully (who I am guessing they put back in the pen where he's had success) or Blough. --Winston-Salem's Lineup looks like a fun watch, particularly the likely outfield: Hawkins, May and Coats. Barnum and Anderson should be in that lineup too. --B-Ham outfield will be the three toolsy guys - Thompson, Mitchell, Walker. Hopefully one of them pops, they are all very athletic and that should be a fun outfield to watch defensively. --Charlotte's skill infield should be a focus. Depending on how things shake out, between the 3 infield slots, you are looking at some combo of Semien, Sanchez, L Garcia and Davidson. They may have to rotate around. --None of the bullpens jump out at me. They all seem to have a couple interesting guys, then not much behind it. --My sleeper unit is Kanny's infield: some combo of Rondon, Stringer and Shryock, maybe with Voight. Voight isn't a prospect but he's a good bat, and I think all the other three have some intriguing potential. I wonder what the chances are of Leury playing CF everyday.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Mar 19, 2014 -> 02:47 PM) What? Median? Why would you use median? Especially to refute my claim of "above average?" And what are you defining as "eligible"? Number 125 of the 250 OFs Fangraphs is showing is Ben Revere at 92 wRC+. Filtering out anything under 50 PA gives me Gerardo Parra at 96. Major League avg. wRC+ by position, 2013: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0 OF: 102 RF: 105 CF: 99 LF: 99 Yeah, guys look bad if you predict that they will repeat their worst season. No idea why we'd expect that though, given that he's coming off his best season. My guess of 105-110 factors regression. Even his career number is 103, which is, in fact, above average any way you slice it. I used median because I am too lazy to add them all together to determine what the average is, but the median should act as the divining point between a league average player and and above average player. I should have said qualified players instead of eligible, as there were 16 qualified LF's last season and Alfonso Soriano was eighth with a wRC+ of 112. There were 23 qualified RF's and Shane Victorino was 12th with wRC+ of 119.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Mar 19, 2014 -> 01:36 PM) Yeah, that's what my post just said: that he wouldn't sustain a .340 BABIP. If he held .315 though, it would be reasonable to expect a wRC+ in the 105 - 110 range (given his 118 last year), which is above average for a corner OF any way you slice it. Or you could expect it to be in 80-90 range as he put up in 2012. Tabata has Podsednik power without strong defense or plus speed on the base paths as his SBs have declined dramatically. This is similar to the Rangel Ravelo situation, the guy can hit but does not have the defensive profile to fit in a position that his bat will play. Hes a one tool player that the Pirates have been trying to dump for a while and keep acquiring players like Byrd and Snider to try and get him out of the lineup. The median wRC+ for eligible RF's last season was 122. The median for eligible LF's was 112. So no, 105-110 is not above average for a corner OF anyway you slice it.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Mar 19, 2014 -> 01:16 PM) They won't take on the money after giving Granderson and Colon the contracts they did this off season? I don't think I agree with you there. I don't know much of their farm system either. It was just a suggestion. Not trying to discount it, their FO just does not seem like the best to work with. They have been chastised for not spending and the union was threatening an investigation to see where the organizations money is going, so some of the moves this offseason were seen as token moves to keep some of the heat off. There has been speculation that the Madoff situation really weakened the ownership financially and that they are pulling out money to cover their losses in addition to the big debt load they took on when they purchased the team. Some teams will eat the money if the other team is willing to offer up a solid spect in return, but the Mets are very protective of their farm at this point.

Dan Hayes @DanHayesCSN #WhiteSox, #Cubs among teams out to see Cathedral Catholic (San Diego) Brady Aiken Tuesday. Could sneak up charts. bit.ly/1gAxTvJ

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Mar 19, 2014 -> 12:19 PM) Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS 5m #mets in market for a ss but wont trade coveted syndergaard. http://cbsprt.co/1ihiaWL How about Alexei to the Mets? They wont take on the money and dont want to give anything up. So not really a match. The Mets are a lot like the Cubs now with financial restrictions and vastly overrating their internal prospects. They would have to give up one of their two C prospects and a pitcher.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Mar 19, 2014 -> 11:32 AM) I don't think that's how you want to use BABIP. You want to compare it to league average, and then make concessions for batted ball type. So his BABIP last year was .340 against a league average .297. But he has a career 60% GB rate, which is high compared to a league average of 45%. Groundballs have an inherently high BABIP. So we expect his BABIP to regress toward around .300, but less so than a player with normal batted ball splits. ZIPS/Steamer have him projected in the .306 - .308 range, which seems about right to me -- or maybe just a touch low, depending on how you feel about his speed. A .340 BABIP is not something that is generally sustainable, even if he does remain on the high end around .315-.320, his profile looks even more like a fourth OF. He is what he is, a contact bat without much else going for him. Even in the post PED era, that is not enough to play a corner spot.

QUOTE (Señor Ding-Dong @ Mar 19, 2014 -> 11:26 AM) Wow, I'm pretty surprised. I guess that means Nieto is the second catcher barring a trade or signing. I guess it could be Gimenez, but I doubt it. He was on the opening day roster last year though IIRC. What's the logic in sending down Phegley before Gimenez? Get him to work with the AAA pitchers. He still has a MLB future in front of him and might as well be working towards that. Gimenez is 31 and will either be the backup if a trade can be worked out or likely removed from the roster altogether.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Mar 19, 2014 -> 10:35 AM) 28 K in 18.2 IP is 13.7 K/9. I believe he is referring to Koleks 35 K in 15 IP which is 21 K/9.

Tabata seems more like a fourth OF. Not enough power to be a corner guy and not good enough defense to play CF. He does not hit LHP's that well and has a pretty high BABIP to average discrepancy, showing that a lot of his success against RHP is likely artificial. Viciedo is younger (6 months) and has real power in his bat. Definitely not willing to give up on Viciedo until after we see him this season.

QUOTE (staxx @ Mar 18, 2014 -> 06:59 PM) I see Jackson as a dark-horse for our pick. Kid has some serious potential with the bat. His profile reminds me of Wil Myers, HS catcher that will move to the OF so that he can move as quickly as his bat will carry him. If the Sox drafted him, I would hope it would be to plug him in as a 3B as he would have a lot more long term value there.

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Mar 18, 2014 -> 07:36 PM) You need to read what I said. He strikes out more than any catcher in baseball. Last year he struck out 37% of the times he came to bat. I gave him a break using last year. If you add inyour 315 PA before last year it jumps up to 39%. To put it in perspective, that is about 5% worse than Adam Dunn. Regardless of what he makes, he may actually strike out more than anyone in baseball Thats the White Sox way. You can only acquire so many guys with contact issues before it bites you. The organizations obsession with RH power over all else is troubling, mainly because none of these athletic power types have hit enough to make the power play. Tflow just needs to play his game, if it isn't enough than the org can move on knowing it exhausted his opportunities. Last year should have been that year, but the org appears to have given him a mulligan either because of his injuries, the lack of any other good options, or a combination of the two.