Vance Law

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Dec 28, 2007 -> 10:39 PM) Here's my summary. Is Owens going to be the best leadoff hitter in baseball next year? No. Simply impossible due to his low slugging. But, can JO give us something valuable? Perhaps. His minor league numbers and his major league numbers suggest it's at least possible for him to put up a .290/.350/.350, roughly where Podsednik was in 05 pre-injury, and over a full season with those numbers he'd probably steal 70 bases on top of it with a good (80%) clip. If he could put up those numbers, he would be a very effective leadoff hitter. He would be on base in front of Thome a lot, he'd annoy the Hell out of pitchers, he'd pair well with Cabrera, and he'd guarantee a lot of fastballs for our 2 and 3 hitters. Is that Owens ceiling? No, but it's close to it. He could probably raise the average some and have his OBP go up with that, and maybe steal a few more bases than that. That's probably close to his slugging ceiling though. Defensively, he's not a star, but in CF, he's adequate. He's a step down from Rowand/Anderson, but he makes up for errors with good closing speed and can cover some ground. Adequate, not great, weak with the arm but unless Anderson starts hitting that's the best we've got. So, that's the positive side. What's the downside? Well, September could well have been a fluke. He could well come out next year and look like a faster version of the 06-07 Podsednik with less power. Maybe he hits a home run or two, and he hits something like .240 or .250. In that case, he probably loses that leadoff job after a couple months, and we are left basically where we are now; without a CF unless Anderson/Sweeney turn it around. No one here can guarantee me that Owens is going to suck next year or that September was a fluke, just like I can't guarantee that he'll give me that .350 OBP I want from him next year. If he does that, then we're in good shape, if not then we're looking for a replacement again next offseason. Either way, for $400k, I think he's a fair gamble out there, as if he were to succeed, even minimally, he solves both our CF problem and our Leadoff hitter problem for several years in one fell swoop. The Bill James Handbook projects .274/.340/.340 for him next year. Not so far off.

QUOTE(max power @ Dec 28, 2007 -> 02:52 PM) What did we get for ray in 2002? Is this a trick question? Jon Adkins

QUOTE(WilliamTell @ Dec 27, 2007 -> 01:35 PM) The older Ray Durham is a better lead off hitter than what we have had the past 2 years. Not last year when he was perhaps the worst regular in all of baseball. And oops, $7,000,000. http://www.baseball-reference.com/d/durhara01.shtml

QUOTE(bmags @ Dec 27, 2007 -> 11:35 AM) when Owens was in the Minors did he ever have an obp legitimately higher than his avg? Could it develop to .30 points above? Yes. Every year in the minors. 60-80 points above. http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/O/Jerry-Owens.shtml

QUOTE(GreatScott82 @ Dec 27, 2007 -> 07:28 AM) you know its been a disappointing offseason when fans are questioning if its a good idea or not to bring pods back... People always make suggestions that are not such a great idea and are certain not to happen regardless of how the offseason's been. And I'd like to see the math from the chap who claims Owens needs 96 steals to be league average.

QUOTE(Kalapse @ Dec 21, 2007 -> 11:36 PM) jenks45monster @ Dec 21, 2007 -> 11:32 PM) * Agreed about Fukudome. He was overpaid but at least 8 mil. IMO. And in the end most Japanese players are no more than decent in the Big Leagues, with the exceptions of Ichiro and Hideki Matsui. Kalapse' Aside form Kaz Matsui how many Japanese star position players have been disappointments in the United States? Guys like So Taguchi and TaYoshi Shinjo were never all that good in Japan, they pretty much lived up to expectations in the US. Tadahito Iguchi, Akinori Iwamura, Kenji Johjima. Each were putting up numbers like Fukudome just before coming here- OPS well up in the 900s and over 1000. Each has come over here to be solid, right around league average. A good value for the reasonable salaries they have received ($1.8 - $5.2 million). Royals new coach Hillman, who spent 5 years over there, called Iwamura the best left-handed hitter in Japan with Fukudome second best. Fukudome needs to be a star-superstar to warrant the money he's getting. Just like Matsuzaka needs to- and didn't do in his first year. I will be surprised if that happens.

QUOTE(sircaffey @ Dec 21, 2007 -> 01:20 PM) I was including Fields and Danks. 1 potential impact offensive prospect speaks to how bad the system is. If you are including Fields and Danks, you should include Quentin and Richar. When people refer to young players or prospects in our "system" what does that mean, and why are they counting up these prospects? It is generally because some publication is putting out their list of top prospects. How many will we have on the BA top 100 list?!?!!! Where will our system rank out of the 30 teams?!?!? Fields, Richar, Quentin are playing on the major league team basically for the league minimum. Just as good as anyone who's never been higher than AAA. When you are referring to their potential value in a trade to another team, Richar or Fields do not have less value because they're ineligible for some "prospects" list. It is an arbitrary distinction when a player goes from "prospect" (eligible for the list!!!!!) to a rookie. They still play for your team for the league minimum, they still have the same attractiveness to other teams by being young and able to play for the league minimum. Sweeney and Anderson have been on those all important lists in the previous couple years, and 2 months where they are healthy in AAA and play well, will restore their value.

QUOTE(max power @ Dec 22, 2007 -> 06:49 PM) They are sexy. Yes. I don't know if they can play baseball or not, but they are hot youngsters. Young hotsters. I think Arizona blew it on this one because in my opinion Quentin is the most attractive one of the bunch. I'm talking Jim f***ing Palmer hot!

QUOTE(elrockinMT @ Dec 23, 2007 -> 11:44 AM) I hope that 2005 wasn't a fluke year. But, to say that trading Carlos Lee was the reason we won because we got Pods most certainly can be argued. I think Pods most certainly contributed a lot, but maybe Lee would have too. The argument generally is that not only did we get Pods and Viz (3.73 ERA in 70 innings), but the money saved on Carlos, let us get A.J. and Iguchi. Carlos Lee for Pods, AJ, Iguchi, and Viz. Remember the team's payroll was in the 70 millions, so Lee's contract represented a sizeable chunk.

QUOTE(103 mph screwball @ Dec 21, 2007 -> 11:13 PM) Meanwhile, White Sox general manager Ken Williams said via e-mail that he would consider obtaining players mentioned in the Mitchell report on a "case-by-case" basis. The Sox, like the Cubs, could be interested in Baltimore second baseman Brian Roberts. Bonds

QUOTE(Harvin4Heisman @ Dec 21, 2007 -> 08:17 PM) He was once one of the top 5 prospects in all of baseball. Only injuries have slowed his career. That and the Diamondbacks glut of young hot prospect outfielders.

QUOTE(Tony82087 @ Dec 22, 2007 -> 04:24 PM) Granted, if he has another poor season at AAA I wouldn't say he's had a poor season at AAA. Last year he had a mediocre 1/3 of a season before getting injured. I feel relatively confident that he'll put up strong numbers at Charlotte such that at some point (depending on the Sox situation- fire sale? injuries?) he'd be brought up, or he'll generate enough value that he could be traded.

QUOTE(rockren @ Dec 22, 2007 -> 04:07 AM) Ripping on Willie Ha? I have to object. Wasn't ripping on Willie. Only an infidel would do that. Simply distinguishing between Ramirez and Harris. I doubt Willie ever hit 20 home runs during a session of RBI Baseball, much less in a season in Cuba's top league.

QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Dec 21, 2007 -> 11:57 PM) Yeah -- the big thing Fukodome figures to lose over here is some of his power, although (even that) will be tempered by Wrigley's power alleys. I'd say a slightly pessimistic projection is that Fukodome will be an .825 OPS player with good defense -- not a superstar by any means but still an above average (for his position and overall) player, who in today's market is definitely worth what the Cubs gave him. Hell, it'd be tough for me to believe Rowand will at any point be a better player than Fukodome yet he (Rowand) got an extra year and $12 million more. Murton and Cliff Floyd put up OPS of .790 and .795 for a combined total of $3.4 million last year. Is the possible 30 point difference in OPS in your guesstimate (he could do better, he could do worse, it's just a guesstimate at this point) worth the $9 million per year? I would suggest that it isn't, because of..., um, sanity. I can see Rowand and Fukdome putting up comparable numbers over the next few years. If that actually happens, Rowand playing center field makes him clearly more valuable.

QUOTE(Heads22 @ Dec 21, 2007 -> 05:48 PM) Sounds like Willie Harris, minus the pimp. I'm pretty sure Willie Harris never lead anything, not even the little leagues, in home runs.

QUOTE(southsideirish71 @ Dec 20, 2007 -> 07:33 PM) We were 30th in baseball last year against lefties and the year before we were 20th in baseball. In 06 we were tops in the league against righties. We were 30th in baseball against lefties last year. .242 with a .741 OPS. We were 28th in baseball with a .248 BA, and a .719OPS against righties. The year before the splits were off the charts. We were 20th in baseball against lefties, and 1st against righties. I would first respond by saying- everything from my previous post. Again. I will reiterate with- the Sox had 1476 at bats against lefties last year and 3965 against righties. That is a gigantic difference in sample size. The two best pitchers in the division are both lefties. Therefore a much higher percentage of "against lefty at bats" are against the top 2 pitchers in the division, compared to the "against righty at bats" with the top righties (who are not as good as Santana and Sabathia). And also. So the "splits were off the charts" in 2006 and in 2007 they went the other way, with the Sox hitting for a better OPS against lefties than righties. How does that fit into your constructed premise. The splits for many players vary each year. Why did Iguchi put up an .812 OPS against lefties in 2005 and .650 OPS while with the Sox in 2007? If your suggestion is that there is something about the actual White Sox uniforms that causes them to be unable to hit lefties well, I have to disagree. And I will state again, Konerko, Dye, and Fields have crushed lefties. No problem there. And we have now replaced Uribe (doesn't hit anyone well) with Cabrera. We replaced Pods (doesn't put up a high OPS against anyone) with Quentin.

QUOTE(jenks45monster @ Dec 18, 2007 -> 08:32 PM) Yes i do. But that doesn't change what he has already shown us. But A) he won't be playing for at least half of the season. It doesn't matter what he's shown us. He's not on the team. And B- having major surgery on his pitching shoulder does change what he has already shown us. He may not be able to pitch like he did in the past. He had major surgery.....on his pitching shoulder.

QUOTE(southsideirish71 @ Dec 20, 2007 -> 06:29 PM) You must of missed the part that the sox suck against lefties for the last few years. Now you suddenly think that adding another lefty is a good thing. And before you quote me how bad Willis is, I can show you a list of crappy lefties that have wrecked this team over the years. If he can match the outings of JP Howell and other associated crap he should do fine against us. The Sox hit better against lefties than righties last year. I am sure you can find bad lefties like JP Howell and others who beat the Sox, just like you can find bad righties who've beaten us. Konerko, Dye, and Fields have mauled lefties over the past 2 years. Add the improvements of Quentin and Cabrera now. The fact that the top 2 pitchers in the division clearly are Santana and Sabathia certainly doesn't help the numbers. Not only are the 2 best pitchers lefties, but there are so few (relatively) lefties to begin with, that Santana and Sabathia skew the numbers further than would 2 great righties. Adding another lefty to the division in Willis, if he is as bad as he was last year, is a good thing in my book.

QUOTE(fathom @ Dec 20, 2007 -> 05:59 PM) This makes the Tigers trade even better. for us

QUOTE(sircaffey @ Dec 18, 2007 -> 12:55 PM) They will now, but when 40 of the 80 names in the Mitchell report say they used it once, for a couple days, or to get over an injury, the people still believing the players need a stiff slap upside the head. ESPN's Fernando Vina, by the way has now admitted to HGH use to get over an injury, and denies Radomski's claim that Vina also bought steroids from him. President Bush is also admitting he snorted a ton of HGH in the 70's but denies he was a cokehead.

QUOTE(StrangeSox @ Dec 18, 2007 -> 12:43 PM) That was his point. 4ER in 8 or 9 innings pitched it a good outing, but it wouldn't count as a quality start. Would you rather have 3ER in 6 and then your bullpen, or your starter going 9 and giving up 4? Ah, that is what was meant by "lose" a quality start. I interpreted incorrectly. Nonetheless, those games would be very few. It is very unlikely that any pitcher has a high incidence of games of 4ER in 8 or 9 innings pitched. I agree that the people over at Quality Starts Watch, Inc. should include such games but I highly doubt this is skewing the stat very much at all. Just a quick glance and neither Buehrle or Garland had a game like that last year. Garland had one in 06. Buehrle has had 3 games of 4 earned runs in 7 innings in the past 2 years.

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Dec 18, 2007 -> 11:51 AM) Enough people will. People will still want their teams to win baseball games, so enough people will turn a blind eye and accept those explanations. Thank you. This belongs on a "Get Barry Bonds, KW" bumper sitcker.

QUOTE(ChiSox_Sonix @ Dec 18, 2007 -> 09:57 AM) and another one mentioned in the report breaks and makes an admission... This is the first to admit to steroids, right?

QUOTE(santo=dorf @ Dec 18, 2007 -> 04:52 AM) Too broad of a stat to use. Doesn't account for WHIP, and a guy can actually lose a quality start if he continues to pitch deep in a game. A guy could give up his 4 total ER in the 8th, and even though he would have a 4.50 ERA (0.00 coming into the inning) it wouldn't be a quality start. That hypothetical you suggest, would not qualify as a QS. Your total innings pitched must be 6 or more and your total earned runs allowed must be 3 or fewer to qualify as a quality start. Pitching 6 innings of shut-out ball and then giving up 4 runs in the 7th disqualifies you. Even if you pitched 8 innings, gave up only 2 runs, left 2 on base, and the reliever promptly gave up a homer, you wouldn't get a QS because you are saddled with 2 more earned runs.

QUOTE(WCSox @ Dec 17, 2007 -> 03:27 PM) I agree. Aren't we still trying to compete this year (with an emphasis on "trying")? Kenny's one-year-of-Jon for one-year-of-Cabrera swap suggests that he's still on that path. I'd rather hold onto Paulie and see how April-June goes. If we're in the same position at the deadline that we were last year, I'd be in favor of seeing what we can get for him and possibly pulling the trigger. He gets full no-trade protection in May I believe.