beck72

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 22, 2008 -> 01:25 PM) Considering Garland at Marquez's age had pitched more innings in the major leagues than Marquez had pitched as a professional, I don't think comparing their minor league ERA's would be an accurate measure of what Marquez will do. I hope he's as good as you think. I believe, at least for 2009, its a pipedream. I agree about the ERA. It's only one measure. But their other stats are pretty similar. I don't know how good Marquez can be. But based on what the sox are doing [or not doing in regards to trading / signing for another starting pitcher and letting Javy go without a replacement], it would seem the sox are higher on Marquez than most.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 22, 2008 -> 02:05 PM) Garland, Danks, Floyd were taken out of HS. Marquez went to college. Community college for 1 year. Marquez started in the minors at age 19.

QUOTE (striker62704 @ Dec 21, 2008 -> 05:19 PM) I like your optimism but when you ask fans for their opinions 90% of the time it's going to be pessimistic. I think Marquez seems to have good tools for success. Whether that happens in 2009 or 2010 I'll reserve judgement for spring training. Remember that Floyd had good tools but spent a full year in AAA with the White Sox before he contributed at the major league level. Of course Danks impressed right away and made the jump to the major league level. I think the tools are there, the opportunity is there, now it's up to Marquez to take advantage. I knew I'd take some hits. But it's sometimes better to go out on a limb. I thought it would be a good comparison of when Danks and Floyd were not only able to come to the majors, but actually help and possibly Marquez, to see if Marquez could actually pitch in the rotation in 2009 and have some success. Floyd was acquired because he had a lot of issues to work through, and was a project. Danks wasn't screwed up, only young for his age in the various minor league stops. Danks could have used more time in the minors, and Floyd was brought in on a good timetable. Marquez doesn't seem as screwed up as Floyd was, and seems more ready than Danks as far as seasoning in the minors. Whether Marquez can put it together in Spring, who knows. But based on the sox offseason moves, esp. not getting a Reyes or Morton in the Javy deal, they seem relatively assured he can challenge for a SP spot for them in 2009.

QUOTE (Jeremy @ Dec 22, 2008 -> 06:32 AM) The round a player was drafted is a terrible way of comparing (advanced) prospects because it doesn't account for anything they've done in the minor leagues. Here we're talking about players with several minor league seasons apiece so we don't need to give much weight to what scouts thought of them before they had the opportunity to watch them pitch many times against more advanced competition. Your analysis of prospects is grossly oversimplified for one primary reason: you appear to look solely at ERA. First, ERA is a small piece of the puzzle when all is said and done because the player's age relative to his level, the quality of his stuff, and his peripheral stats, are at least as important as ERA. Marquez doesn't come out very well on any of those accounts: he's never been young for his level, he doesn't have nasty stuff (as evidenced by his low K-rate and his absence from top prospect lists), and his peripheral stats are decent at best. Take Masset for instance: he was easily considered roughly as good a prospect than Marquez (BA ranked him 8th in a solid Rangers system in 2006). Yeah, his career minor league ERA was not as good as Marquez's but scouts liked him because he could hit the high 90's with his fastball. I didn't really cite Masset, Grilli, and Glover because I think they're highly similar prospects to Marquez, I did it because people seem to be caught up in the notion that Kenny acquired an unheralded prospect who could fit into the rotation. My point is that if we really want to compare Marquez to other pitchers Kenny has tried that with, we should look at Grilli, Glover, and Masset before Garland, Floyd, and Danks. We can break it down more meaningfully than you did: Age at time of major league debut: Garland - 20 Floyd - 21 Danks - 22 Glover - 22 Grilli - 23 Masset - 24 Marquez - 24 (?) Peak Top 100 Prospects Ranking (Baseball America): Floyd - 9 Garland - 32 Grilli - 44 Danks - 56 Glover - N/A Masset - N/A Marquez - N/A A few things: *Marquez' peripheral stats from the minors are similar to Garland and Wang, two guys he's compared to. I posted those in this thread. Looking at what they did in the minors, and what Marquez has done, it's not that far from reality that Marquez could put up major league numbers probably not as good as Wang, but maybe better than what Garland has done. *The age a person breaks through to the majors is often irrelevant. Players are often rushed when they aren't ready, and it may be for a cup of coffee. I'd take more stock in when a pitcher "gets over the hump" [finds success and stays in the majors]. *Your rationale of Marquez' "Absence from top prospects lists" as a reason he shouldn't make it in the majors doesn't cut it. In any given year, for every top 100 minor league prospect that has a good career, there are many more outside of that 100 that can be productive major leaguers. *Masset was only 8th in the Texas system afeter being converted into a reliever. He toiled for years outside the Texas top 30. Marquez was always a top prospect with the Yanks since being drafted. Marquez fits in better with the Garland, Danks and Floyd group, based on potential, stuff and performance in the minors than with Grilli, Glover and Masset.

QUOTE (False Alarm @ Dec 21, 2008 -> 10:01 PM) nothing in this post takes issue with anything i said. not sure why you posted it, to be honest. as for his GB rate, my number comes from minor league splits (52.7% at AA trenton in 2007): http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=457812. not sure where your 1.30 ratio comes from. You said Marquez's 2007 in AA was nothing special. If being the starting pitcher in the AA Allstar game is nothing special, not to mention his other numbers, then I'd like to know what a decent year in AA would look like.

QUOTE (KevinM @ Dec 21, 2008 -> 03:59 PM) Trust me, the people making those comparisons are nuts. So, I take it you have first hand knowledge of Marquez?

Olney's latest column tells how the prices for the free agents are falling. Garland should be able to come far cheaper than first thought when the season ended. Whether that is still in the sox price range, who knows. But Garland is looking for a price cut from his 2008 salary. http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?...me=olney_buster

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 21, 2008 -> 01:48 PM) As a matter of fact, I've been one Jose Contreras' biggest backers on this site. I was one of the few that didn't want him gone even in 2005. I also am a Marte fan, and mentioned Matt Thornton as a potential pick up 3 months before he became a White Sox. I admittedly wasn't a fan of Gavin Floyd and still am not sold. The numbers suggest some things. Marquez has always given up a good amount of hits. He doesn't strike very many out. To suggest he will do things he's never done before during his minor league career on the major league level is crazy. I'm sorry I bring reality into the equation. You're basing everything on a conference call. Remember, KW also said Gio Gonzalez was one of the top 2 left handed pitching prospects in baseball along with Danks. People on this board, since the White Sox dumped him say he sucks. If Minnesota traded a .219 hitter who strikes out all the time and was owed $24 million for 3 players including Marquez and said Marquez would be the 4th starter, your opinion about his ability would be no higher than mine, and maybe lower. Its not up to me to "give him a chance." The White Sox will do that. I hope he does well, I just don't see how anyone can expect it. Marquez has been compared to Chein-Ming Wang and Garland. They also have similar numbers in the minors. It's not that crazy to suggest Marquez may have success in the majors based on what he has done in the minors. Wang had success right away in the majors [iIRC, like a 4.04 ERA in 17 starts], after throwing 478 innings in the minors. Marquez has thrown 560 minor league innings. Garland also threw 474 innings before being called up. ERA H/ 9 Hr/9 BB/9 K/9 WHIP Wang 3.37 8.9 0.5 2.0 7.1 1.21 Marquez 3.60 9.5 0.5 3.1 6.4 1.39 Garland 3.55 9.1 0.6 3.2 6.4 1.37 Majors: Wang 3.79 9.1 0.5 2.5 4.0 1.29 Garland 4.47 9.5 1.1 2.9 4.7 1.38 What stands out is Wangs control compared to Marquez, and his drop in K/9 from the minors. Also, Garland's HR rate went up.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 21, 2008 -> 12:25 PM) You mean like Jack Egbert? There are similarities, such as having good numbers in most of his minor league stops and playing in an ASG. Yet Egbert only was looked at as a top prospect heading into 2008, a 13th rd pick, a year older than Marquez, and viewed as a 5th SP at best. Going by numbers, Egbert would seem a decent bet to bounce back. But "stuff-wise", Egbert hasn't had the tools to get people's attention. It's odd, but hardly a word of him gets mentioned.

Here's why I think Marquez could do decent in the 5th spot in'09, while both Floyd and Danks struggled to start their sox careers. All three were 1st round picks, though Marquez was 41st and Floyd a 4th and Danks, IIRC a 7th or 9th pick. Floyd had a lot more to work through, and his struggles were a few years in the making. Danks was young, and not quite ready-even though he had a decent 1st half. Marquez has only struggled 1 year, and isn't as green as Danks was. This isn't to say I think Marquez has a better ceiling than those 2. It's just that it's possible Marquez has a better start to his sox career in the bigs than those 2. Looking just at the 2008 numbers, Marquez looks like another AAA/ AAAA scrub. But if the sox had a SP prospect in AA who started the All Star game, a 1st round pick, a guy who projected like a #2 or #3 starter, and struggled the next year in AAA--the only season in the minors that he did, possibly due to an injury, few would be looking to trade him. Most would expect the guy to bounce back. It's not like the guy was a 40th round pick, had one breakout season, and fell back to earth as he faced higher level competition. The sox scouts Young and Pellant know talent. The Sox traded Javy for lower level prospects like Gilmore and Rodriguez when it was reported they could have had a major league ready arm like Jo Jo Reyes or Charlie Morton. If the sox were so concerned about the SP situation why didn't they add Reyes or Morton? It didn't make sense. But if you look at it like the sox think they already can fill 2 spots between Poreda, Richard and Marquez, it does make sense. I personally would like the sox to add another SP. But the sox don't seem too concerned about adding another SP, via free agency or trade [bailey, who's talked about the most, seems more in line with needing the "Floyd treatment"-extended time to work through issues before helping the big league club].

QUOTE (False Alarm @ Dec 21, 2008 -> 04:23 AM) marquez's 2007 at AA was nothing special at all. his groundball percentage--at AA--was only 52% (for a guy who's billed as a sinkerballer/groundball machine). his k/9 was bad. it's well established that ERA doesn't predict future performance very well. there's no recent scouting report that indicates his stuff is good again now, and everyone can agree that his 2008 was spectacularly bad. i have no idea why anyone would think he'd be decent at the major-league level in any role whatsoever in 2009. i hope the chisox scouts have, like, inside info or something that's not apparent to us, but with the info we have, it's unrealistic to expect a notable contribution out of him in the bigs this year. From Minor League Baseball: For 2007: "Was 15-9 with a 3.65 ERA (155.1IP, 166H, 80R, 63ER, 44BB, 94K) in 27 starts with Double-A Trenton...opponents batted .270 (166-for-615, 11HR); LH .292 (83-for-284, 5HR), RH .251 (83-for-331, 6HR)...led the Eastern League in wins, ranked second in innings pitched and placed 10th in ERA... his 15 wins placed him second among all Double-A pitchers and tied for ninth overall in the minors..." Also the Eastern League All Star Game Starting Pitcher GB / FB rate: 1.30, not 52%

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Dec 20, 2008 -> 10:11 PM) This argument has played out here many times, on many other players. A player does well through the minors, then for whatever reason, reaches a certain level (AAA, AA) and has a bad season. This always prompts people to fall into one of two camps: --He reached a peak and just isn't going to be that good --He had a bad year (or an injury), and is likely to bounce back People in both camps are each right, some of the time. So brushing off either one is silly. Instead, here is the question - how do you determine which is the case, with an individual player? Also of note - this type of player is exactly the kind of talent that KW likes to pick up. Good points. That's why the sox scouts track players from other teams. And Kenny gets credit or blame based on the results. The sox seem pretty confident that Marquez will be on the 2009 sox. Esp. by dealing Javy without a 4th SP in house. Seeing Marquez throw in the AFL might have opened the sox scouts eyes. Maybe he threw like he did last year, when he was an "up and comer" and not available via trade. The Yanks have little tolerance for poor performance from the minor leaguers. Esp. pitchers. Other teams can be more patient with their pitchers, and let them struggle and see if they rebound.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 20, 2008 -> 04:55 PM) Without the injury? How was he "on course" to repeat those numbers at a higher level? I don't see it. Keep in mind, White Sox scouts are not always correct. To get Danks, they had to give up their best pitching prospect. To get Quentin, they had to give up a pretty good prospect. Those trades worked out great. To get Marquez and a couple of other guys, they had to give up a strikeout machine who is owed $24 million and hit .219. I think it was a great trade. If the Sox get anything from any one of the three, its gravy. I don't understand overlooking AAA stats and relying on AA stats to give you an idea of what a player is going to do at the major league level immediately. Jerry Owens hit .331 in AA in 2005. What has that translated to? The White Sox have had several pitchers do well at AA and that hasn't meant squat. If you look at the guys these particular scouts have reccommended which I have no idea who they are, Danks probably stands out, but I'm sure there are quite a few guys they have liked that haven't amounted to anything. Marquez was sliding on the Yankees prospects chart. He wouldn't have been a top 10 for 2009. His strikeout rate, and I know its not the end all, was brutally low, and should be expected to be lower at a higher level. There just aren't many pitchers in MLB history that have been very successful who have fanned one every 3 innings. He has always given up a lot of hits, and for a guy who supposedly has a great sinker, the ball tends to leave the yard a lot when he's on the mound. If he is in the rotation, the White Sox will not contend. Marquez ERA: '05, low A-3.42; with 0.3 HR/9; 3.9 BB/9; 6.9 K/9 '06-high A-3.61; with 0.4 HR/9; 2.8 BB/9; 8.0 K/9 '07- AA 3.65; with 0.6 HR/9; 2.5 BB/9; 5.4 K/9 Pretty consistent, going a year each level; He puts up a mid 3 ERA in AAA with similar BB/9 and K/9 and he's a very solid 5th SP to count on for 2009. Esp. to start the 1st half. He may fade in the 2nd half, like most rookies do as they throw more innings than they ever have. Yet the sox have Jose and possibly Poreda, not to mention a better farm system to acquire a SP at the deadline. The 2008 Javy was a 5th SP. the sox still need a consistent 4th SP. That's why I like the talk of Garland coming back. But I think Marquez could top out at a #3.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 20, 2008 -> 03:42 PM) I'm thinking his 6-7 record in AAA with a 4.69 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP with 2.7 BB/9 innings and 3.7 k/9 innings with 1.3 HR/9 innings all at the AAA level suggest something totally different than what you predict. You think he will do better in the AL than in AAA. I find that hard to believe. He's never pitched more than 155 innings on the minor league level and has pitched over 102 innings twice. I think he may wind up in Masset's old role if he isn't in Charlotte. Maybe someday a 5th starter. He's not nearly the elite prospect Danks was when he was acquired. 2008 was the only year he struggled. He had previus years of 3.60 ERA's in AA and high A in 2007 and 2006. Without the injury, he was on course to repeat those numbers in AAA in 08. The fact the sox scouts have been after him for 2 years, and dealing Javy without seemingly a back up plan, leaving the sox without a #4, suggests the sox think he has a solid chance to replace Javy's numbers in 2009.

The more I look at Jeff Marquez's writeups and numbers, the more I like him. It's not just the latest young arm Kenny has acquired after giving us Danks and Floyd. [Though the sox do seem to target and follow certain pitchers and see if they can acquire them. Like the sox had been targeting Booby Parnell and Kunz from the Mets, in trade talks.] It's the way he seems to fit into the sox rotation. He'd give the sox a different look from the current 1-3, esp. with his sinker and changeup from the RH side. • Classic sinker ball pitcher, though w/ above avg. velocity and plus movement; • Power change up • Yanks expected him in ’07 to pitch in the bigs; http://mariners.scout.com/a.z?s=318&p=2&c=347065 • Comparison to Chien-Ming Wang; but should get higher K rate http://thenewyorkyankeesbaseball.blogspot....ey-marquez.html Add in this nugget from the Trib. when the trade went down: "Sox scouts William Young and Gary Pellant scouted Marquez, 24, for the last two years". These are the same guys who gave us Danks. At the time, that was controversial, giving up a pretty solid #3 SP in BMac for a guy a year or two away from the bigs. [Of course, they also like Masset. But the key was Danks]. Kenny made the deal based on their work. I haven't seen who were the scouts who gave us Floyd. Marquez was on target in 2008 to throw in AAA a mid 3's ERA with solid k and BB rates after having success in each level prior last year. The only blip was last year, when he had a shoulder strain. With the Yanks, you can't experience failure. As the sox had scouted Marquez previously, when he was available, they landed him. Make no mistake, Marquez was the key to the Swisher deal. Betemit is a UTL guy and Nunez is a wildcard. It lands on Marquez to make the Swisher for Gio, DLS and Sweeney a wash. So, I'm looking at Marquez to at least give the sox in 2009 what Vazquez did in 2008--ERA wise. Marquez won't go 200+ innings, as the sox will make sure he's pulled early from games. I'd expect 170-180 innings, with a 4.50 ERA. For 2010 and beyond, I could see Marquez being a sub 4.00 ERA pitcher. Projections, thoughts?

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Dec 19, 2008 -> 05:07 PM) The problem with you theory there is that the young guys arent used to pitching over 200 innings which means that our pen and the rest of our staff would be more taxed thus really hurting our rotation and the team as a whole. There is alot of value in a player like Garland that can help the younger guys (Danks, Floyd, 5th starter) keep their innings reasonable and also keep our pen which is somewhat injury prone, from being over worked. You cannot just inject young guys into a rotation because you want to see if they work, there are many other factors to consider. Good points. To go into 2009 with the 4th and 5th starters two of Marquez/ Richard/ Homer Bailey [if the sox got him], and expect them both to throw 200 innings w/ a 4.50 ERA is unreasonable. Maybe one of those 3 could-esp. for the 1st half, until Contreras or Poreda could help for the 2nd half. But having a 5th starter like Garland at $8 mill., to eat innings, would really help a pitching staff like the sox, both bullpen and SP. Danks and Floyd both may see a drop off. Having a solid, unspectacular starter like Garland would help the sox more than most teams.

Getz seems solid for 2b, hitting 9th in the order, with the possibility of being a #2 hitter during the season. Hudson doesn't seem like a fit for the Sox. I don't think Rosenthal is going by any inside information, just guessing here.

If the sox have a deal for Dye, then offering Abreu Ibanez money and yrs makes sense. The sox can move Abreu to DH for the last two yrs of a deal. Ozzie's key quote was Bobby 'needs to get a deal that gets him the most yrs'. Only an AL team can do that

Garland would be a decent pickup. He'd probably settle for a 2 yr deal, as he'll find most teams may be backing off him due to his increased numbers. Only if he's healthy, though. I don't want the sox to pay $9+ mill. for a 4th or 5th starter. Though I'd rather pay Garland $9 mill. than Vazquez 2009 salary.

Seems the Sox have interest/ may have contacted free agent Willy T., per the Denver Post. The Reds have had the most interest, looking for Willy to leadoff and play CF. If the Reds are barking about paying all of Dye's salary, they won't get in a bidding war over Willy. The Nats have like 5 OFers. If the sox want him, they should be able to spend the most on him. http://www.denverpost.com/rockies/ci_11227465?source=rss

QUOTE (TLAK @ Dec 14, 2008 -> 03:31 PM) On paper he's the only legitimate shortstop on the roster behind Ramirez. You spot him all over the place to get him some ABs, but his job is really just to hang around in case something happens to Alexei. Keep an eye on how the others do at SS in spring training; if Getz, Nix or even Viciedo show a major league glove there then everything changes. But judging from stats and reputations, Lillibridge is the only option. From the sounds of it [and like Ozzie and Kenny did last year with Quentin and Owens] is to have two options going into spring for an up for grabs position with young players. For 3b, Fields and Betemit, with Viceido an outside shot. For 2b, Getz and Lillibridge the frontrunners, with Nix an outside shot. Lillibridge may be given a shot in CF. Not sure if Owens is the sox other option for CF, along with Anderson. Lillibridge is a great back up option for SS. And could even try fulltime work at 2b, CF or possibly 3b.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 14, 2008 -> 01:08 PM) So I guess Dunn, Bradley, Griffey, Jr., and Hermida would all be given some consideration...although it's VERY difficult for me to imagine a player like Dunn in that Angels' line-up, maybe he'd be exactly what the doctor ordered. Griffey wouldn't be that bad of an option for them. He and Vlad can split time there and at DH. If they need a LH bat, it would probably be via some other trade, though. The angels need a few moves if they don't land Tex. 1b is one of the spots they can improve. Trading for Konerko wouldn't prevent them from adding elsewhere, such as getting a SP.

QUOTE (beautox @ Dec 12, 2008 -> 07:10 PM) first off i the idea of an all cuban infield is pretty awesome lol, secondly if we can get Morales and a decent spec sign me up. That's what the Angels would probably offer. If they don't believe Morales will amount to much, trade him now when he's got value. Theother guy would probably be a AA/ AAA pitcher who'd be like in their 10-15 range of top prospects. Whether the sox or Angels would do this, who knows. The angels would still have to make more moves, like sign Brian Fuentes. But making a move for PK would help them for 2009, without hurting their long term. The angels would still need to add a lefty bat for the OF/ DH.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Dec 13, 2008 -> 11:46 PM) As much s we al like to see impact trades I have to agree with KW that developing our own and letting them have the chance to suceed is the right way to go. The poor drafts have not allowed the sox to develop the young guys. That the sox have been able to win in 2005 and 2008 without having any of their position player draft picks from 2000 to 2006 has been amazing. The sox now have young players in the minors who could develop into long term fixtures in the majors. That is what the sox need in order to be successful.

Kenny also said he wanted to reward the sox minor league players who are 'playing the game the right way', ie, the way the sox are teaching them. He mentioned Chris Getz 1st, then Fields, Anderson, Owens. KW said "people are watching". I take it to meant that the players and staff in the minors are looking to see if these position players will be given a chance to succeed. That the feeling out there is that these players have done what KW and staff have asked and want to see if they'll be given a chance to play everyday. From the sounds of it, I think you can pencil in Getz and Fields in the lineup--unless they get beat out by in house options such as Lillibridge and Viceido respectively. KW talked again about Fields "playing on 1 leg" in 2008. I also caught the tail end of a conversation where KW said "he could steal 40 bases and play stellar defense if he played everyday". I was scared that he was talking about Owens but he was talking about Lillibridge.