caulfield12

Which is, as the CDC claims, 50% inaccurate. Wasn’t it 0.4% just last week? Why not cut it in half again, or argue that it’s actually less harmful than the flu? Of course, that would make 63 pages of guidelines for reopening seem like a bit of an overreaction, and Dr. Redfield’s scaring the public over the predicted “double whammy” fall/winter flu and Covid-19 explosion dubious. Newest conspiracy theory: banks and Wall Street wanted this “hoax” to permanently downsize the labor force while leveraging those still gainfully employed to produce twice as much for the same amount of salary, as well as increasing profitability by doing away with traditional office space/capex, leading to a generation of 24/7/365, constantly on-call employees (eventually replaced by the next generation, of course, the AI robots).

Maybe moving it or League Championships/WS to Japan/South Korea? That time difference is hellacious for scheduling, though kids might actually be able to watch the endings of some games for the first time in ages.

CDC now saying antibody tests could be incorrect as much as half of the time. Yikes! At least NHL, NBA and MLB (July 4th weekend return) trending in right directions, although not sure how they can pick up schedules as existing if not all of those cities are going to be allowing play to go on even without fans. Might have some drastically rebalanced scheduling...long home/away stretches depending on conditions, such as second peaks and new waves in Oct/Nov. And who knew that taking insulin was the solution to all our problems, including Covid-19?

https://www.propublica.org/article/us-emergency-medical-stockpile-funding-unprepared-coronavirus How Tea Party Budget Battles Left the National Emergency Medical Stockpile Unprepared for Coronavirus Fiscal restraints imposed by Republicans in Congress in the early years of the Obama administration left the U.S. less prepared to respond to the coronavirus pandemic today.

Waiting for first comment that he might now look older than Contreras, El Duque and Minoso...bet he’s still thin as a rail, and could put on a pretty good show in BP like Julio Franco recently did at 61. Of course, we we will never forget that amazing (and heartbreaking, after CQ went down) 2008 season, especially the crazy four game stretch at the end.

We still don’t know if we will be online in the fall here in Wuhan. Brought back the 12th and 9th graders (and I think 6th) for their national exams to get into university, high school and junior or middle school, those exams normally held in June pushed back to July 7/8 and July 20th in Hubei Province and Beijing. Have online classes until July 10th, normally we finish around June 15th/graduation. So our summer vacation’s being cut from essentially 9 weeks to 37 days. Yes, I know, teachers are lucky to have jobs/vacation at all, right? It’s sort of a crazy situation, because some teachers actually were able to leave for Thailand, UK, France, Vietnam the week of January 19th when everything shut down...and some didn’t come back in March and now are stuck outside China (getting “vacations” of month after month after month, of course spending more, too). It’s almost impossible to replace those teachers from abroad with the flight ban, and most have been teaching online at full salary. The problem I have is there’s basically no way for me to come back to the States, as there’s no guarantee I could return back to China in August for teaching (there has been a total flight ban on all foreigners entering China since late March, Germany, for example, finally received permission to bring 200 essential workers for joint ventures this week). I would probably have to undergo two separate two week quarantines, thus cutting my time there to almost nothing, and there’s no current guarantee I could even see my mom in her nursing home if I went through all that. Yet another problem is that prices have gone from $400 to fly to California to $4000 like that, and I’m not even sure if I could find a flight to Chicago if I tried. The peak in Iowa might still be June/July, yes? Then my family doesn’t think it’s safe to go to the US right now, and are worried I might get sick or bring it back with me. Quite a mess. In the middle of all this, I was supposed to sell our house, which obviously isn’t going to happen now. Meanwhile, those working online are still receiving full pay (I’ve cut my actual teaching hours by roughly 50% but have 332 students instead of roughly half that.) Staying at home in A/C when it gets super hot in summer is nice, sure, but kids are really struggling with online education. They really miss human contact/social relationships outside tech devices. We’ve been in this same mode of instruction since Feb. 10th, and son will have missed five full months of KG (at least he started early at 3.) The classroom management is not the issue, of course, but trying to maintain interest/motivation/focus takes a lot of energy too, especially when it feels like you’re talking to a brick wall (we don’t force students to turn on webcams.) For now, it appears we will at least be able to keep/honor new contracts negotiated during the year, as we won’t be losing many students (or at least not more than 5-10%) going into 2020-21. Whether they will allow those teachers trapped in limbo outside China (roughly 10 out of 30 or so) to teach online remotely while the rest of us are teaching a full schedule of regular classes (16-24 hours) is the single biggest question remaining as we enter fall. It should be noted that seven teachers fought to return in March through two week quarantines, so those teachers who aren’t here at least had the opportunity to return, but didn’t for various reasons (being outside China seemed safer, but turned out wrong). Tough situation, especially for those of us who can’t see families at all compared to those who have been able to spend months and months in their home countries or on the beach. Not sure what’s fair, but, once again, these are “little” or insignificant problems for teachers to debate compared to real-world unemployment, second peaks/waves and bread or food lines.

The devastation, in other words, has been disproportionately felt in blue America, which helps explain why people on opposing sides of a partisan divide that has intensified in the past two decades are thinking about the virus differently. It is not just that Democrats and Republicans disagree on how to reopen businesses, schools and the country as a whole. Beyond perception, beyond ideology, there are starkly different realities for red and blue America right now. Democrats are far more likely to live in counties where the virus has ravaged the community, while Republicans are more likely to live in counties that have been relatively unscathed by the illness, though they are paying an economic price. Counties won by President Donald Trump in 2016 have reported just 27% of the virus infections and 21% of the deaths — even though 45% of Americans live in these communities, a New York Times analysis has found. The very real difference in death rates has helped fuel deep disagreement over the dangers of the pandemic and how the country should proceed. Right-wing media, which moved swiftly from downplaying the severity of the crisis to calling it a Democratic plot to bring down the president, has exacerbated the rift. And even as the nation’s top medical experts note the danger of easing restrictions, communities across the country are doing so, creating a patchwork of regulations, often along ideological lines. https://www.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-deadliest-where-democrats-live-121518089.html

Except for KU basketball, loads of super rich people in Johnson County, the Koch Brothers, Wichita aviation, Knute Rockne, Ft.Riley/Leavenworth and wheat farmers, you might be right.

Soxtalk 1 Lawrence, KS Psychotherapists 0 https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/24/opinions/trump-memorial-day-golf-us-deaths-coronavirus-dantonio/index.html

https://www.yahoo.com/news/footage-packed-pool-party-houston-151247419.html Balta? Guess it’s coming as no surprise that Houston and Dallas are tracking to be disaster zones by July...also, not sure what that means for baseball in Texas this summer, originally it was going to be a “safe haven” between Florida and Arizona.

https://www.factcheck.org/2020/05/outdated-fauci-video-on-face-masks-shared-out-of-context/ The biggest problem here is the loss of objectivity...unwillingness to delve into a story or lack of openness to the truth. While it’s certainly possible to take a series of statements from Dr. Fauci back in February, March or even early April and create a compelling narrative without any context (that he had to be more measured, we didn’t have all the evidence from South Korea, China was withholding key information) that he was proven wrong in some way...well, there are drastically different degrees of wrongness here. There’s simply no equivalency between Trump and Dr. Fauci, not if you’re a scientifically-thinking person who values empirical evidence over speculation and conjecture. Yet if you see the world in the same way Trump does, filled with grievances, affronts and deep state conspiracies, it’s relatively easy to construct an alternate reality where the main reason Democratic governors are in favor of extended lockdowns and “tyrannical” treatments like masks and social distancing is stopping Trump from winning election. What’s even scarier is the upcoming vaccine/anti-vaxxer arguments...especially if a cure comes from China. Trump would certainly reject it as a trick/hoax (plus all the lost American pharmaceutical profits!), but just imagine the pressure a President Biden will be under with Trump questioning his every move on Twitter and just daring the administration to force/compel every American to get a dosage of that potential “foreign” vaccine.

Right now, the surveillance state model (China/Singapore) is winning this argument...along with Germany, South Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Australia and NZ. Definitely not Sweden. Arguably three of the most fractured/politicized democracies...the US, UK and Brazil, are now facing the worst situations overall. Italy, Spain and France were already struggling economically...this just exacerbated the divisions between northern and southern Europe. The argument will continue to be that the best route to recovery for those three, along with Greece and Portugal, is decoupling from the Euro in order to increase the competitiveness of exports as well as tourism. Thus leading to even more instability around the globe as countries are forced to look inward for growth/investment/development.

That’s REALLY going to throw off the Illinois R0 numbers...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/kentucky-gov-andy-beshear-hanged-011610816.html One sure way to help, hang your governor in effigy outside his mansion. Quote John Wilkes Booth, “sic semper tyrannis” (and thus to tyrants...err....Abraham Lincoln, also a native Kentuckian.) Then there was this lovely quote. “This has been one of the biggest shams in world history,” Christman said. “Grown men have been hiding in (their) homes nearly wetting their pants over this invisible enemy that nobody sees. Where is it at? Let it come out and face us. I serve the one true and living God who conquers all enemies. Why should we give our freedom and our liberties up for such fear (and) propaganda and all the garbage that is coming out of Frankfort today?” Who calls it the invisible enemy nearly every day? Can’t recall...

It’s clearly better to go with the experts at Fox News that have all proudly served under the last six administrations, including Reagan, both Bushes and Trump. By the way, Dr. Fauci was actually appointed director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases by Ronald Reagan in 1984, when he was a sprightly 43 years old. Why exactly would he be out to kill Greg by deliberately providing him with bad health advice? What would possibly be his motivation? We still have 24 states trending upwards, places like Miami, Houston, Dallas and Southern California are projected to have 1,000+ deaths PER AREA around July 1st...but, it’s all basically over because Trump went out to play golf again? https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/24/coronavirus-rural-america-outbreaks/?arc404=true The New Frontline is in Rural America/A deadly ‘checkerboard’: Covid-19’s new surge across rural America

“Schools in our country should be opened ASAP. Much very good information now available,” Donald Trump tweeted on the eve of Memorial Day as the U.S. coronavirus death toll approached 100,000. He tagged both @FoxNews and host Steve Hilton because the “very good information” the president of the United States was receiving and passing onto the American people came directly from that Sunday night show on Fox. “Get on with it and reopen schools now before you do even more needless damage!” Hilton urged on his broadcast shortly before Trump’s tweet. He proceeded to rail against “stupid regulations” like “totally pointless” temperature checks and “completely arbitrary social distancing rules.” https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-wants-schools-opened-asap-after-watching-fox-news-steve-hilton-segment

Left center, but certainly not quite out where AOC is (very few Iowans are.) Believe it or not, I followed the primaries pretty religiously here, desperate to find, well, anyone suited to lead America into the future. The closest candidate I found was....Buttigieg. Because he’s articulate and unafraid to openly debate Republicans on religion, and he’s mostly likable in an earnest, Boy Scout way. Maybe if you squint really hard, you can imagine him as president, and why that would be good for the world. Warren comes from the fact my best friend’s sister took law school classes with her and is a huge fan...and is normally more or less indifferent to the majority of politicians. Warren obviously is another one of the brightest candidates, and actually cares about policy. A wonk, just like Bill Clinton was, actually interested in the machinery of government. The Obama people NEVER liked her, and then there’s the danger of losing that MA seat. The party is caught between three imperatives...African American vote turnout (Obama, Bill Clinton), young and Latino turnout (see Sanders) and the Heartland/Rust Belt states. If it was a man, I perhaps would have chosen Sherrod Brown...but Klobuchar or Whitmer are the go to for that third reason. Black voters didn’t connect with Klobuchar/Buttigieg, but they did warm to Sanders/Warren. The reality here is they actually liked Sanders’ ideas more than him personally, but many are among the most pragmatic voters (especially after four years of Trump) who were also scared Sanders wouldn’t be able to win running as a socialist (not running away from that label, at least.) They trust Biden, but don’t love him...not like Obama and Bill Clinton (at least while he was president.) In that sense, Biden is much like Gore here....just older and more folksy, but less policy-driven. When push comes to shove, Harris gets the nod due to her age (52), her debate/campaigning skills (her campaign itself was terrible, but that’s a different issue) and for being both black and Indian, representing the diversity of the party and the world, for that matter. And that lack of genuine Native American blood is what will cost Warren in the end, as Trump would have hammered her on that. You simply can’t have four older white candidates to choose from if you want to motivate all the core groups I listed above to get out and vote. But I understand the attraction, as the Sanders/AOC wing is still slow to embrace Biden and feels they got sucker-punched twice by the DNC. It would also make Trump consider the Nikki Haley card to counter Harris, but he would never admit a mistake by dumping Pence IMO (in the same way he is basically now stuck with Fauci, Redfield and Azar.). That’s a calculated risk, and Trump just might get THAT desperate in July and August if there’s no end in sight to Covid in order to shake things up. https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/24/politics/donald-trump-tweets-joe-biden-comments/index.html Five things Trump said in the last 48 hours that were arguably worse than Biden’s “gaffe”...but went largely unnoticed

My wife asked me, why/how could Trump be golfing when almost 100,000 are dead? In China, its has been outlawed for politicians to play over the last 3-5 years. Creating the wrong appearance, but also anti-Westernism/decadence. I’m guessing a significant aspect of this is also Xi Jinping not particularly enjoying the sport. Not to mention the rivalry with Japan going back to WW II, and how popular golf is there, along with Trump/Abe both playing together every chance they get.

There’s momentum now going to Warren because of her economics/law and Consumer Protection Board experience, as we transition into ongoing series of arguments for stimulating the economy while still lacking a lacking a health care plan that won’t add another $3-5 trillion in debt. And a backlash against Klobuchar...due to her almost complete inability to draw minority voters and the fact that the advantages she provides in MN, IA, WI, MI, OH and PA are essentially the same ones that Biden already has for those particular states. Harris and Warren appear to be the two co-favorites (yes, that’s creating a bit of risk with her MA Senate seat).

Four reasons for the rush to reopen churches... https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/24/us/churches-reopening-state-orders-trnd/index.html "The Catholic Church asks their members to contribute by dropping money in the basket every week," Zech said. "They don't ask them to tithe, typically don't ask them to pledge, typically they just ask them to contribute through the collection basket. Of course that means that if (parishioners) are not there, then they're not contributing." That's critical, he added, because few churches have sources of revenue beyond contributions from parishioners. More than 12,000 Catholic churches in the US applied for small business loansfrom the federal government, according to Pat Markey, executive director of the Diocesan Fiscal Management Conference (DFMC). Approximately 6,000 parishes were approved in the first round of the Paycheck Protection Program, while 3,000 received loans in the second round, DFMC estimated in early May. Some churches have asked members to contribute electronically while in-person services are suspended. But Zech said the percentage of those who are making payments online is relatively low.

Fake News? Julio and James Franco, 2020. And he’s wearing a mask! And better bat speed at 61 than most of the 2000-2015 White Sox Top 10 prospects. https://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=29210934 As you follow this thread, you’ll notice it’s from China...and is already shrouded in controversy, even if it was to be distributed freely. Fwiw, this testing group is out ahead of Oxford, Sanofi (France) and Moderna (which might just be a pyramid scheme, caveat emptor).

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/bill-maher-says-jeff-bezos-043959235.html To get back on track, at least closer to Covid-related effects, try this one, Greg. This one hits home in Iowa or Kansas. I also know you often quote Bill Maher, he’s about as close to right-center as it gets. Amazon probably has an equal number of critics on the right and the left, but it and Wal-Mart are profitability and tax/health insurance avoidance behemoths that are arguably threatening our way of life as monopolies. What say ye? In America, at least since the 1980’s S&L crisis, we “privatize gains and socialize losses.”

She could have the nomination if she wanted, but not interested. Write her a letter urging her to run. It would have more impact than writing here. Not even African Americans in the party are sure running an African American woman is the most pragmatic choice. There is a real fear that it could negatively influence Hispanic voters, for example. In the MSM that you never read, it’s far from the consensus view about what Biden could/would/should do. The fact that Harris is black AND Indian is what makes her so intriguing to a number of political operatives, a true “crossover” candidate. Life is not decided by SNL impressions, or Trump wouldn’t have been elected in the first place.

But protecting the lives of everyone in the country takes precedence...”life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness,” which of these inalienable rights is listed first and foremost? Only if your life is protected can you then have #2/#3. All we’ve been hearing for months from the conservative media is that the suicide rate is going to skyrocket, people will riot in the streets...by denying people the right to drink, we’re going to improve the conditions for all those who are suffering? Note, I didn’t even argue legalize all Class C narcotics. Catholic mass uses or at least used to utilize real alcohol/wine in celebrating the Eucharist. The Bible is clear that we should never drink wine or strong drink to the point of drunkenness. But it doesn’t say drinking is not permitted. That said, conservatives would never argue that government should ever have the right to tell people how much they can drink, as long as they don’t operate a car or boat.

Abrams is highly unlikely to be the pick, no matter how much conservative media is HOPING for her to be a potential foil. After all, she struggled to beat ultimately the worst governor (arguably) and certainly the least well-informed one. While there are plenty of allegations of election tampering there, as well as it being a pretty solid red state, her being the Bernie Sanders #1 pick from the beginning probably disqualifies her. They’re just not quite on the same page politically, which is why Warren would be a stretch, too. https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/23/americas/brazil-coronavirus-hospitals-intl/index.html The Brazilian president copying the Trump playbook and putting all the Americas at risk/re-risk should be enough to put a fork in The Donald. But it is never that easy in politics, and there are still five months left.