caulfield12

This isn't directly related to baseball, per se, but I thought it was interesting. It wouldn't surprise me if Detroit has a difficult time hanging onto their NFL/MLB/NBA teams, and perhaps Cleveland and Kansas City will eventually fail as franchises, too. Do you see the teams comprising the AL Central being the same as the five that currently constitute the division? Will the White Sox be able to build a true dynasty due to the competitive advantage of Chicago vis a vis the other four cities in our division? It seems to me that the areas that will really thrive in the future include Seattle/Vancouver/Portland (one franchise relocated), San Jose/Silicon Valley/SF (+1), the Research Triangle/Charlotte (banking, universities) +1, Nashville, San Antonio/Austin corridor...these last two are stretches due to population size and/or weather concerns. The Rust Belt and Sun Belt will be under the most duress....perhaps the Rays will not survive (although their future looks bright on the field as an organization) and/or the Marlins, the Diamondbacks....Cleveland and Detroit will be disproportionately affected as well. Other teams at risk will be the Royals, Reds, Brewers and Pirates. If the Padres didn't make it, you could imagine one more Southern California franchise. It also seems pretty clear Las Vegas will never have a franchise, either. I wouldn't be surprised to see four out of the ten aforementioned teams replaced and/or fail in the next decade. I think baseball will also need to start becoming more creative at looking at Mexico City, Northern Mexico, Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and/or Venezuela for expansion. All of those sites would be much more likely than Tokyo/Japan, South Korea, Taiwan or China for the next decade. The Twins looks to be the second-best positioned for the new economy, but they're taking out a pretty massive debt load with the new stadium and opening that facility in the teeth of a recession. While NY can absorb the blow/s, at least for now, I am less concerned than say 2-3 years ago that the Twins will become the dominant franchise in the division. The Rust Belt in particular looks likely to shed vast numbers of jobs, and some of its cities and towns, from Cleveland to St. Louis to Buffalo to Detroit, will have a hard time recovering. Since 1950, the manufacturing sector has shrunk from 32 percent of nonfarm employment to just 10 percent. This decline is the result of long-term trends—increasing foreign competition and, especially, the relentless replacement of people with machines—that look unlikely to abate. But the job losses themselves have proceeded not steadily, but rather in sharp bursts, as recessions have killed off older plants and resulted in mass layoffs that are never fully reversed during subsequent upswings. In November, nationwide unemployment in manufacturing and production occupations was already 9.4 percent. Compare that with the professional occupations, where it was just a little over 3 percent. According to an analysis done by Michael Mandel, the chief economist at BusinessWeek, jobs in the “tangible” sector—that is, production, construction, extraction, and transport—declined by nearly 1.8 million between December 2007 and November 2008, while those in the intangible sector—what I call the “creative class” of scientists, engineers, managers, and professionals—increased by more than 500,000. Both sorts of jobs are regionally concentrated. Paul Krugman has noted that the worst of the crisis, so far at least, can be seen in a “Slump Belt,” heavy with manufacturing centers, running from the industrial Midwest down into the Carolinas. Large swaths of the Northeast, with its professional and creative centers, have been better insulated. Perhaps no major city in the U.S. today looks more beleaguered than Detroit, where in October the average home price was $18,513, and some 45,000 properties were in some form of foreclosure. A recent listing of tax foreclosures in Wayne County, which encompasses Detroit, ran to 137 pages in the Detroit Free Press. The city’s public school system, facing a budget deficit of $408 million, was taken over by the state in December; dozens of schools have been closed since 2005 because of declining enrollment. Just 10 percent of Detroit’s adult residents are college graduates, and in December the city’s jobless rate was 21 percent. To say the least, Detroit is not well positioned to absorb fresh blows. The city has of course been declining for a long time. But if the area’s auto headquarters, parts manufacturers, and remaining auto-manufacturing jobs should vanish, it’s hard to imagine anything replacing them. When work disappears, city populations don’t always decline as fast as you might expect. Detroit, astonishingly, is still the 11th-largest city in the U.S. “If you no longer can sell your property, how can you move elsewhere?” said Robin Boyle, an urban-planning professor at Wayne State University, in a December Associated Press article. But then he answered his own question: “Some people just switch out the lights and leave—property values have gone so low, walking away is no longer such a difficult option.” Perhaps Detroit has reached a tipping point, and will become a ghost town. I’d certainly expect it to shrink faster in the next few years than it has in the past few. But more than likely, many people will stay—those with no means and few obvious prospects elsewhere, those with close family ties nearby, some number of young professionals and creative types looking to take advantage of the city’s low housing prices. Still, as its population density dips further, the city’s struggle to provide services and prevent blight across an ever-emptier landscape will only intensify. That’s the challenge that many Rust Belt cities share: managing population decline without becoming blighted. The task is doubly difficult because as the manufacturing industry has shrunk, the local high-end services—finance, law, consulting—that it once supported have diminished as well, absorbed by bigger regional hubs and globally connected cities. In Chicago, for instance, the country’s 50 biggest law firms grew by 2,130 lawyers from 1984 to 2006, according to William Henderson and Arthur Alderson of Indiana University. Throughout the rest of the Midwest, these firms added a total of just 169 attorneys. Jones Day, founded in 1893 and today one of the country’s largest law firms, no longer considers its Cleveland office “headquarters”—that’s in Washington, D.C.—but rather its “founding office.”

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Feb 21, 2009 -> 03:01 PM) They're the people who are running baseball teams, the people who make millions just to hold the title of adviser or consultant. They're people like Dayton Moore, Theo Epstein or Jack Zduriencik, the sort of baseball minds that teams are hiring to construct their organizations these days. Despite not playing or managing at the major league level they're winning championships or like the Rays coming damn close and threatening to stick around for a while. It's the reason why teams are hiring 35 year old Harvard grads to run their organizations and moving away from the crusty old baseball guy. Well, it sounds like we're back in the middle of Moneyball's debate again, Beane or Grady Fuson? The obvious answer is that statistics/computer analysis are but one too in the arsenal, but probably will never supercede actual scouting departments...or maybe all that information, with rise of the Internet and streaming video, will just be made available to everyone for a price. Daniels in Texas doesn't really fit the mold you're talking about, he had more of a management/business background than a statistical analysis approach. I do think he went to Cornell, though, so he fits the Ivy League approach I suppose. Obviously, DiPodesta and Ricciardi have had "modest," at best, success. They certainly haven't tipped the scales forever to the Bill James side of thing, and many have since picked holes in that theory by citing the pitching success of Mulder/Hudson/Zito and a "rent a closer" being even a bigger factor in those teams failing to make the playoffs, but not having deep or consistent enough offensive attacks to beat superior talent in a head-to-head elimination series. My take on Moore is that he's much more like "old school" like Schuerholz or Jocketty or Gillick than he is the SABR crowd. The Braves made their mark in producing dominating pitching staffs and incredible scouting to find position prospects and keep their minor league system in the Top 5-10 on a pretty consistent basis. The other team often compared with the A's (before the Rays' emergence) is the Twins, and they're not a SABR type of organization either. Even Beane, to me, is more of a horse trade and has an eye for a talent.....maybe their "screening" methods are a little different in terms of imposing their own form of order by focusing on college players like a Swisher or Blanton, but it's still a matter of picking the right guys. In the end, Miguel Olivo ended up being worth a lot more to the White Sox than Chad Bradford, because his acquisition led to Garcia and a WS title, something that Bradford, while a very solid/above average MLB reliever, never accomplished for the A's. The new guy in Seattle seems like more of a hybrid between the two poles...I think KW is still more of a traditional scouting/eyeballing talent guy than anything else, despite his Stanford degree. I think of him signing someone like Iguchi just from watching video or projecting something in Ramirez that many scouts overlooked (athleticism, baseball instints, wrists/bat speed) because of his wiry frame. It's cyclical. I'm sure we'll see NFL teams going with much younger/inexperienced head coaches like Tomlin, instead of retreads. I also think the Red Sox, while they use those tools and have Bill James on staff....are, first and foremost, an anomaly because of their budgets and iconic status, but also a hybrid organization in the way they're now eschewing competing directly with the Yankees (although TEX was an exception) and making budget-conscious moves with high reward/low risk moves like Penny, Smoltz, Kotsay, Saito and Baldelli that will pay off if just two of those guys produce, rather than sinking all that money into Tex, Sabathia, Burnett, etc.

Even battling back issues, Crede's third base defense is among the game's best. Last year he saved 13 more bases than the average third baseman despite missing a third of the season. Where do they get this crap (mlbtraderumors, although I'm sure it was from another silly defensive metric)??? Seriously, there's no neat/simple/compact way to objectify defense, zone ratings, whatever. Crede was a below average defensive 3B for most of last season. I don't care what they say. Maybe because they remember him from 2005, they watch, I don't know, Josh Fields, and assume that every ball getting by Fields would have been stopped/prevented by Crede. I'm more worried about Juan Cruz in Minnesota as their RH set-up guy than I am Crede replacing Buscher/Harris at 3B.

Which might have been nothing...of course, Cabrera could file a grievance, but it's arguable that he would win (like the Todd Walker situation I think in SD?) The fact that nobody really has come up with a realistic (at least from his POV) contract proposal would seem to offer pretty strong evidence that it wouldn't be obvious he would make the team (over Alexei Ramirez as the starting SS). If you were KW, it would be easy to make the argument that Ramirez's OPS, power, speed (Cabrera is declining in that area, Ramirez is in his prime), etc., would make him the obvious pick, despite the overhype about Cabrera's Gold Glove (supposedly) caliber defense. The only way Cabrera could make an argument through the union would be if he contended he had been offered a shot at the starting 2B position, and Getz/Lillibridge/Nix were selected over him, but even that's tenuous with so many teams going with youth/affordability over veterans. Of course, useless speculation...but I am glad the Twins didn't pick him up, I think he would have been a real thorn in our side as leader of that infield. Luckily, it's just Punto. Cabrera theoretically could have come back, but it would have virtually assured the trade of either Dye, Jenks or Konerko. Viciedo is/was essentially a replacement for Swisher's money in the 2009 budget, although he will be infinitely cheaper in 2010/11/12 than Nick. Swisher's contract has gone from a "bargain" to albatross in a short period of time. It will be interesting to see if the Braves go over Swisher, Nady or possibly Garret Anderson/Edmonds (or a the full-blown youth movement). Of all the players, Garland, Wolf, Hudson, Abreu, Cabrera and Varitek were the ones (along with Juan Cruz) who ended up suffering the most...with Raul Ibanez coming out smelling like a rose, along w/ the Yankees' triumvirate.

Does anyone really believe that David Cook's going to get a legit chance to win the CF job and that he's not just organizational filler? Well, in my memory, the only time something so strange happened (besides Scott Radinsky and Boone Logan jumping from A ball) was John Cangelosi winning a starting outfield spot way back in the 80's. Cook would have to jump over Owens, Anderson, Wise and probably even Jordan Danks and Shelby (yes, I know Shelby's not a natural CFer). Not to mention Lillibridge will thrown into the mix if he doesn't beat out Getz and Nix, and then there's also Alexei Ramirez (5-10% chance).

Don't forget Contreras, as well... Well, you'd have to think the home playoff games and Game 163 added a pretty decent chunk of revenue. There's always the possibility we dump Jenks as he becomes more and more expensive. The recent philosophy of the White Sox has typically been to go cheap (with the exception of Koch) on closers, like Howry, Foulke, Takatsu, Hermanson (although he wasn't brought on with the idea of making him one originally), Marte, Tom Gordon (by that point in his career), then Jenks. You really have to go back to Roberto Hernandez to find an older, veteran closer who had a long string of years with the Sox. Is Jenks going to be worth $7-9 million in the type of market where that will get you Orlando Hudson and Bob Abreu? Maybe not. Of course the problem is that you won't get much of anything back for him, either. He's not perceived like a Papelbon or even a Nathan. He's somewhere in that second tier of Top 10-12.

QUOTE (Tony82087 @ Feb 20, 2009 -> 08:47 PM) Lets hope I'm wrong then. You bring up a really good point, I just know what I have seen first hand in Spring Training, along with reports from the media, among other things, that Owens still is held in extremely high regard, and he is really going to have to shoot himself in the foot to lose his grasp on the CF job. Is Plaxico Burress anywhere around AZ and/or available?

I think the biggest problem was the last two months of 2006 and then the 2007 season on top of it. Kind of stopped all of our forward momentum...at the same time the Cubs were really starting to take off. A number of studies documenting the effects of WS Championships typically shows a 5 year window of benefits accruing....in our case, it was stopped shorted by the 2007 season and the economy a bit...but I'm sure the Rockies aren't enjoying nearly the economic renaissance that some forecasted. Their WS appearance (and it's still different from a championship, of course) hasn't had a demonstrable affect. Perhaps because their season was so screwy...the way they went on a tear at the end but weren't a factor for much of the season, and their subsequent destruction by the Red Sox. I guess their fans didn't really feel their team was "for real" in the end. Or look at the Tigers from 2006...to where they have fallen today. Almost feel sorry for them, since DET has just been decimated and demoralized, but it sure helps out the White Sox.

The comeback and Robin Ventura walk-off grand slam (can't remember which season) was a good one too...maybe it was against the Rangers? Also, him getting hog-tied and "noogied" by Nolan Ryan...oh, how I hated that prick. I think Craig Grebeck and one other Sox player had taken him deep back to back, too. No specific memory, but "Lance on point" and "I love to watch Ray run" good memories...and Paciorek always made me laugh. Thatsa notso gooda. Back to back to back homers off Randy Johnson (one of them was Widger)?

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=AgQY...o&type=lgns Another article on what could be done to free Cruz (hopefully not to Twins), O-Hudson and O-Cabrera

it's amazing how most of the memories are the ones from 2000 on...good job KW!...or just short-term memory is more poignant Melido Perez rain-shortened no hitter no hitter thrown against us by Hawkins that we actually won seeing Tom Seaver pitch for Sox in Old Comiskey there was one game that really stands out in 1990 when we had that improbable run...a home game against KC we won with an amazing comeback (another game I was able to attend, being from the Quad Cities) Rodney McCray running through fence in minors (sort of counts) Bo Jackson (1993) Michael Jordan playing for the Sox (sort of) Mike Cameron ripping Parque to shreds at Comiskey... being friends with Scott Radinsky (met him when he pitched for SB) and then seeing him up in the bigs a year later...getting free tickets, going out to Will Call and saying a player left tickets for me, that was kind of cool Tito Landrum and Jerry Dybzynski (sp) for all the wrong reasons Julio Cruz and Rudy Law in 1983...and watching the Ron LeFlore story on t.v. too young for 1977 team, unfortunately getting Claudell Washington autograph on 1979 Topps bb card, my first of many autographs RECENT 2000 DET brawl (one of the few moments I was able to attend, and the spark that lit the fire that season) 2005 the whole season, I was out of the country teaching in Colombia....but I was still able to see all the playoff and WS games...but just the memory of being in a hotel and going crazy when Tyler Blum FINALLY ended that game against Wandy Rodriguez...it was a liner, so it was so strange....the game just ended like that after you wanted to go to bed but knew you simply couldn't Crede homer off Riske to push back the Tribe and turn the tide finally...I distinctly remember we'd blown a huge lead against KC, going to bed, waking up the next morning and seeing the score on ESPN Deportes ticker and thinking the season was doomed at that point All the players coming back onto the field at DET with their 2005 ALCD clinching greys with black piping...particularly Garcia and for some reason, I still thought that last liner to RF off Jenks was going to be a hit and maybe they wouldn't make the playoffs Pods and Konerko (GS) off Qualls, Buehrle's steady performance in WS (classic Mark)...Willie Harris/JD in game 4....Juan Uribe's catch...El Duque in ALDS (I was on a tour in the Andes Mountains, but the bus stopped for an hour so I went in to Internet cafe and followed that inning live through cbssportsline.com, I wanted to KILL Marte at that point in the season)...Crede throughout the playoffs defensively...that amazing comeback off Oswalt, capped off by the AJ bases-clearing double into no-man's land Crede's double to win Game 2 of ALCS...Iguchi's homer following the muffed grounder by former Sox favorite Graffanino...and that it was off David Wells to boot another one that really stands out was Cotts getting a couple of huge outs in the WS and then Jenks winning that epic confrontation with Jeff Bagwell...that was a class power versus power showdown ripping Clemens to shreds and sending him to showers early with lame injury excuse and for a sort of White Sox related memory...arguing/fighting with ncorgbl and sometimes colsat (although I got to respect him over time) for the first 2-3 years of chisox.com, we were mortal enemies...I re

He was a legit #3 starter at least for the first half of the season until he tried to pitch through injuries. If both Colon and Contreras can hold up, we're in MUCH better shape than we were one month ago. Marquez, Richard and Poreda...perhaps only one of them even making the OP roster the way things are going now. Pretty big turnaround I'd say.

No different than some of the predictions coming into 2005....with the team's chemistry totally changed and the offensive firepower of Magglio, Carlos Lee and Valentin all gone.

QUOTE (Pumpkin Escobar @ Feb 17, 2009 -> 11:26 PM) I agree with this. I am hoping that if we are out of it we can move these guys for solid prospects as I am very concerned about arbitration next year. If we are able to take notes from the Cabrera situation, it may be in our best interest to move our guys at the deadline. Hopefully we are in a position of adding players for a playoff run but if not, so be it. Next offseason though. Not to get ahead of ourselves but since it was brought up, I completely agree that we'll have a lot of payroll flexibility and we'll be able to get discounts because of the economy. Off the top of my head some free agents I see us going after or would like to go after are: Roberts Figgins Crawford (not sure though if he has a option off the top of my head) Vlad Holliday Matsui Winn For pitching. I was talking about this with a buddy when we were discussing Bedards value and I do belive he is a FA. With Contreras coming off the books - I wouldnt mind taking a flier on him for half that or finding a guy like Lackey or Webb or something would be a big addition to this club. Especially if we see a regression from Danks and Floyd. Big insurance policy. Anyways...just my thought on the comment above. Hopefully this season goes well but I think that next offseason may be a telling sign why we were less committed to making moves and strapped for cash. Crawford will have his option picked up. We definitely need some LH bats (internally, we have Brandon Allen and that's it in terms of power). Some names we'll hear include Ankiel and Holliday (but both Boras clients)...Chipper Jones, Carlos Delgado and maybe (although doubtful) Jason Bay. Hank Blalock might get some consideration too, if he stays healthy. I don't see Vladimir Guerrero as an option...think he will still be injury-prone, and he's not a left-handed DH to replace Jim Thome. Perhaps Aubrey Huff will be the conversation? I'm sure Roberts, Figgins and Abreu will all be under consideration as well. Both Lackey and Webb will be too expensive...although we will/should have some money to play around with, unless the economy completely collapses and our attendance sinks below 1.75 million. I guess anything's possible. Bedard will be too expensive to bring aboard if he has another impressive season....and too risky for the price barring a Colon-esque contract.

For Shelby III, I meant out of high school. Yes, he MIGHT be the best athlete (along with Jord. Danks) in our system right now. Big year for him. Let's hope he continues to progress and gives us yet another option from our system. At the very least, he could be yet another valuable trade "chip" for KW.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Feb 17, 2009 -> 04:08 PM) Good analysis as always 'field. I concur wholeheartedly that the right handedness is a problem with the future lineup, provided it's kept together. I believe, though, that the Sox will wind up trading someone, probably Fields, after he hopefully establishes some trade value this season. They'll look for young pitching, and to get even younger, further from arb, etc. With Getz having the first crack at 2B, possibly, this season, if he establishes himself as a good OBP guy, he'll be hard to get out of the lineup because they need his lefthandedness, probably in the 2-hole in front of Q. Basically, we got hope like hell that Allen develops, can play 1B, and could be good enough to be in the four or five-hole. Meanwhile, we replace Thome with another left-handed DH, maybe a faster, OBP guy. Then, we get something like this. 3B Beckham 2B Getz RF Q LF Dayan 1B Allen or Lefty DH SS Missile DH Lefty or Allen C Flowers CF JorDanks This lineup has plenty of L-R balance, speed and power. And in 2011, at least, it'll be pretty dirt cheap, too. This is what I'm hoping for anyway. Obviously the outfield defense/catching could be suspect, but the infield might be solid. Moving Dayan to DH and getting a lefty OF could get the same type of lineup and better defense. Not to beat a dead horse, but I wouldn't rule out Abreu as an acquisition down the road. He's one a one year deal, Vlad may soon require a graceful transition to the Angels' DH, and we'll need him even more post-Thome. Maybe there will be better options in the next two FA classes. Scott Boras' top guys for the 2009-10 offseason: Adrian Beltre, Johnny Damon, Matt Holliday, Rick Ankiel, and Ryan Madson. He's weak in the starting pitching category with Jarrod Washburn and Kevin Millwood. The group feels older than this year's. Players who will be under 30 in 2010: Omar Infante, Hank Blalock, Wily Mo Pena, Rich Harden, Brett Myers, and Madson. John Lackey heads the starting pitchers, though he may sign an extension. After him it's Myers, unless Erik Bedard or Harden have huge, healthy years. Of course, there's always guys you don't see coming, like Ryan Dempster this year. If you want a big bat, you're looking at whoever's left of Carlos Delgado, Troy Glaus, Chipper Jones, Jason Bay, Holliday, Ankiel, Jermaine Dye, Vladimir Guerrero, Aubrey Huff, and Jim Thome. Forget about these guys, whose options will likely be exercised: Victor Martinez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Webb. from mlbtraderumors.com I guess you can throw Abreu and maybe Dunn into the mix, although Dunn's desirability ranking took a dive somewhat with that curious contract from the Nationals.

QUOTE (scenario @ Feb 17, 2009 -> 07:09 PM) I'm not sure why you seem so down on Shelby (I gather that from this and earlier posts). What's not to like? IMO the kid is the full package... speed and power. In a poll of Carolina League managers, Shelby was selected the most exciting offensive player in the league. And the Sox seem to have committed him to playing LF and not 2B, but you're not buying it. Why? I'm not entirely sure. Maybe because being a White Sox "top prospect" hasn't been as meaningful this decade. Part of it will be that he will turn 24 this season, so he's a bit older or at the same age as the players around him. Perhaps because he was undrafted, despite being the son of a former major leaguer. Maybe he's going to be more like Durham than Willie Harris at the major league level. This will be a very important season for him. Jord. Danks and Shelby are really our only legit outfield prospects, unless you throw Viciedo into that mix. To play a corner outfield spot, he's either going to have to be a player like Pods and lead off, be able to hit 20 homers consistently (maybe that's possible at USCF)...or we're going to have to pick up the power from our middle infield (possible with Beckham/Ramirez), catcher (Flowers) and centerfielder. Maybe he is a fit...I'm just not sure about his defensive ability. He seems to be one of those players without a real position...that's both good and bad...but sometimes players like that get labelled early in their careers as utility players or 4th outfielders. I'm not going to say he doesn't have the ability to outproduce, say Chris Getz, because all signs point to him being a more dynamic offensive player than either Getz or Lillibridge (Soriano-Lite or maybe something like Ramirez last year sprinkled in with 10-15 more steals). One thing is for sure. He's definitely getting overlooked or forgotten about with the focus on the top five players in our system...and the continuing hopes for Danks and Brandon Allen. Maybe if our depth chart hadn't flipped so dramatically, his name would be more prevalent in our conversations. You also have to believe that if Viciedo impresses and Quentin continues his career ascension that Shelby really doesn't fit in as a DH (well, maybe!) 2B seems to be the position where he had the most upside, yet he was moved off that spot, most likely because of defensive concerns.

QUOTE (scenario @ Feb 17, 2009 -> 01:42 PM) Good points. And the Phils replace Pat Burrell (who is about 6 months younger than Konerko and about 2 months older than AJ) with Raul Ibanez (36) and no mention of age either. Oh well. It always seems to be our team's advantage to play with a chip on their shoulder, so I shouldn't complain if media guys help us out there, eh? Not to mention Jamie Moyer. I think it's the fact that all of those guys (Konerko/AJ/Dye) have been together going on five seasons now and have been the core of the line-up (along with the addition of Thome in 2006, and Thome's age) that has largely created this perception. And, as they say, perception is 90% of reality. Maybe they listened to Ozzie and KW repeatedly saying how old and one-dimensional we are/were and it's hard for the media to get rid of that perception. We have a lot of interesting youth and talent (Ramirez is approaching his prime years, Viciedo, Flowers, Poreda, Beckham, Quentin, Danks, Floyd, Jenks, Fields, Lillibridge, Getz...even including the likes of Anderson, Owens, Betemit, Marquez, Richard, Allen, Shelby and Jordan Danks). When those three or four "core" players are gone and you start talking about this line-up: Gordon Beckham, 2B Alexei Ramirez, SS Carlos Quentin, RF Dayan Viciedo, LF (DH/1B) Tyler Flowers, C (DH) Brandon Allen, 1B (DH) Josh Fields, 3B/1B Lillibridge/Danks/Anderson, CF That's a very young and athletic collection of talent. There's one VERY, VERY big and obvious flaw with this future line-up. Well, make that two. First, there's NO left-handed hitters on the horizon, with the exception of Brandon Allen and maybe Chris Getz. If we thought your line-up was unbalanced before with only Thome and AJ (usually), this one is even worse in that regard. Next, there's four players in that line-up (which doesn't have a DH) that are essentially DH's perhaps as their BEST position. Brandon Allen, Flowers, Viciedo and Fields...so what KW has on his hands is a much younger version of the all-or-nothing 2000-2008 offenses, more or less. The main difference is that we're not only younger, but more athletic than in the past, especially up the middle of the diamond (Ramirez, Beckham, Lillibridge, Jordan Danks, Anderson) than we've been this decade. Not to harp on Chris Young again, but having that combination of speed/power/athleticism just gives your team (see D-Rays or Diamondbacks in 2007) another dimension. I guess you can add Shelby to the mix, but I've yet to figure out exactly where he fits in with the future White Sox. He's not a corner outfielder, 2B would seem to be taken and I don't think he'll ever be the defensive stud that Anderson, Lillibridge and/or Jord. Danks could be. Shelby and Getz are the players that I see having the hardest time being starters in the future, at least long-term with the White Sox.

Because Beckham and Viciedo are seen (by most of the baseball pundits and media) as being more impact players in 2010 than 2009. The comment about the rotation is spot on...something we've acknowledged all offseason, although I do think there's at least a 50/50 chance Colon gives us one surprising year. There's also the concern about Linebrink that many of us have...or Jenks becoming just an average closer, or Dotel and/or Thornton falling back to mediocrity. It's hard to imagine Ramirez will have even more of an impact offensively...and, as with Floyd, many are expecting him to fall back, and perhaps even struggle to hold SS defensively. Unless you're projecting comeback seasons for Fields, Brian Anderson and Konerko, it's hard to imagine the offense really improving, and there's concerns with Quentin and Danks repeating as well, coming off astounding seasons that almost nobody predicted. Sure, Contreras might rediscover the fountain of youth, Marquez MIGHT be the second coming of a "mediocre" Garland and/or Poreda has an unexpected/breakout impact (along with Richard being JP Howell out of the pen), but there's a lot more scenarios where things can slide backwards. We are starting to have a much nicer blend of youth and veteran leadership, but the Thome/Konerko/Dye/AJ grouping, you have to expect at least one of them to seriously regress or be injured. If it's AJ, we're really in trouble from an offensive standpoint, because Flowers simply isn't ready yet. We have a lot of interesting pieces and "spare parts" (Lillibridge, Getz, Betemit, Anderson, Owens...probably Fields, too) but nobody knows exactly what to expect out of any of them over a full season...or if any of those six are capable of being full-time major league players (yes, I realize you can stick Andy Gonzalez out there and call him a regular, but that doesn't mean he will perform, same with D.Richar and Willie Harris in the past).

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Feb 17, 2009 -> 10:23 AM) I'd omit Varitek from that group. Varitek's situation was nothing but pure stupidity and greed on his part. Boston offered arb and NO ONE was going to take Varitek for an equal or greater salary PLUS give up a pick on top of that but yet Varitek passed. For all this s*** about Borass being a top agent, it doesn't sound like he knows how to assess a market, and Varitek should have known better than to take his idiotic advice. Varitek should have fired that assclown on the spot. It seems that Borass' only good deals lately have been with his no-brainer candidates like A-Rod and Teixera. He got dropped by a few players and almost f***ed Pedro Alvarez out of playing in 2009 among other things. The situations for Juan Cruz, Orlando Cabrera, and Orlando Hudson are unfortunate however. Those are all very good players who are worth last year's market value and are certainly worth a couple draft picks. If Cruz does do a sign-and-trade with the D'Backs I hope we enter the picture, especially if he's only going to cost like $3M on a 1-year deal or something like that. Edit: I just have to add that isn't it funny how the Cubs spent $82M this offseason on 3 years of Milton Bradley and 4 of Ryan Dempster, $23M in '09, when they could have had Abreu + Cruz + Lowe for the same price per year? And they traded their best pitching 'spect for Kevin Gregg, then failed to get Jake Peavy for basically nothing because they spent too much money on Alfonso Soriano, Jason Marquis, and Kosuke Fukudome. Stupid Cubs. They'll never win. The funny thing here is I remember all the talk of Hudson getting $40-50 millioni for 3-4-5 years at the beginning of this FA period. His value, along with Abreu and some of the starting pitchers like Garland and Wolf, simply fell off the face off a cliff. In the end, the deal signed by Dunn wasn't really that bad at all, in the overall scheme of this market. Abreu wanted $45/3 and might end up earning just $5 million for one season, although I think his incentives would nearly double that deal if I'm not mistaken.

He does have the right to waive that clause, about not being able to be traded until June...I think I read that somewhere. Well, this case, Varitek, Juan Cruz....they were all pretty unique. I think the White Sox would obviously have to work everything out (although I'm not sure they could put it in black and white obviously, handshake type of deal/gentleman's agreement) first with the other teams in terms of the contract numbers and the prospects coming to the Sox. Or maybe it would be one of those deals like the one for Carl Everett where the Rangers were offered a pool of players to choose from...it could also be tied into Cabrera's 2009 performance level theoretically.

One thing for sure, we don't want to see Contreras hitting, ever again. Not good. I seem to remember him also being hurt in that game at Cincinnati in May or June of 2006 when he lost his winning streak.

Just like the Yankees struck at precisely the wrong time (although they won't pay for it), the Dodgers and White Sox (also the Twins in 2010) picked the wrong time to be opening or building new facilities... Maybe 6 months ago those marketing deals would have been realistic, but not anymore. As another thread mentioned, national sponsors like Pontiac or Motorola are not often going to fire or lay 10 upper-level employees off in these times, they're going to sacrifice that $2 million in advertising and wait for the economic situation to recover. Those $200,000 sponsorships being lost are just a more "micro" version of the big picture that will be striking all professional sports franchises...it will be interesting to see if companies stick with the Big 4 (and NASCAR/PGA to a lesser extent) to spread their money around through minor league sports or "second tier" ones.

QUOTE (Kalapse @ Feb 15, 2009 -> 06:03 PM) Also, when has Kenny had either A.) the financial flexibility to make such a deal, something he might have this season or B.) the young talent in the minors to make such a move, something he definitely has now. The last time was probably 2004 when he had a couple million dollars and Jeremy Reed at his disposal and he went ahead and made that BIG move. The problem has been expending all of his limited minor league/financial resources in the offseason then having nothing to offer come the deadline with this past season being a prime example of this. Don't forget Loaiza for Contreras. That trade had just as big, if not more of an impact, than the Garcia move. Luckily we ended up getting Danks for McCarthy instead of Soriano...who wouldn't have made a huge difference on our roster as currently configured, because his salary would be even more difficult to move today than Dye's. Even if the White Sox are in a free fall this year (like 2007), who could they realistically move without eating salary, which they are loath to do? You can see them TRYING to deal Dye, Konerko and Thome...maybe even AJ...but only a few teams would be willing to take their contracts, like alone give them any talent back in return. This is THE YEAR the Yankees should be able to win it all, being in the financial position they are to hand pick virtually an All-Star at every position on the diamond to add to the mix at the ASB. The only players that would draw attention would be Buehrle, Floyd and Jenks...as the assumption obviously must be that KW isn't going to trade Quentin or Danks.

QUOTE (Greg Hibbard @ Feb 12, 2009 -> 11:44 AM) Assuming all the major deals are done and we head into Spring training with close to the current roster... Why would an experienced, seasoned GM head into spring training/regular season relying on so many of the same things going right that went _inexplicably_ right last season? It's one thing to praise him for scooping undervalued legit major leaguers and turning them into productive major components on a team. It's quite another to thing they will magically retain what can only be described as peak value year after year after year. Even if we accept the fact that CQ is a fantastic all-around ballplayer, how many individuals are able to his .290/30/100 year after year after year? How many that do break out with a single season like that are pitched much differently in year 2 and regress a bit? Even if we can establish that Gavin Floyd has come around and developed into a solid #3 starter, how do his peripherals suggest anything but a ceiling of 15-17 wins and a slightly above average ERA given his skill set/tools? Is it likely that Ramirez will be able to have a similar season and have as many clutch hits? Is it acceptable to just pencil John Danks in for another 3.32 ERA season - a season that was over 2 runs in ERA better than his previous? Moreover, why are we even considering relying on guys like Contreras (injuries), Richard (little experience), Broadway (wayyyy unproven) as part of a competitive major league rotation? Why is Josh Fields going to work out at third base? Who sees anything of value in Wilson Betimet and why? Why are incomplete and substandard guys like Brian Anderson, who has admittedly been screwed over at times by this organization, still being considered as starting pieces of the puzzle? Why is this team still saddled with effectively 4 dh's, a problem we have wrestled with for going on 6 years? I guess my main question is...where the bleeping hell is our insurance policy? There are so many questions regarding this team that as it appears now the decision making process has been somewhat baffling. From a transparency standpoint, all that's been done is shedding of payroll, and no major pieces have been added. What's especially baffling about this is that KW is setting this team up to be constructed primarily in such a way that he will shoulder 100% of the blame if it does come in at anything less than 80 wins. He's asking somewhat unproven breakout stars to sustain apparently unsustainable levels, and asking AAAA (my term for major/minor 'tweener like Betimet) and AAA caliber players to rise to occasions they haven't been asked to rise to before. Please put down the "worry pipe" and be more of a Bulldog like your namesake. First, no team has significantly improved in our division. Cleveland added DeRosa and Wood, both coming off career/atypical years, and they're heading into a more difficult league. They will miss Fr. Gutierrez a lot. Just like we have our Big 4 that we're hoping for a repeat from, they are going to be hard-pressed to expect that same production out of Shin Choo Shoo and Ben Francisco. Their pitching after Lee and Carmona (assuming Lee's anywhere close to last year and Carmona doesn't become Jaime Navarro) is very, very suspect. Martinez and Hafner are question marks, healthwise. Then you have an infield consisting of DeRosa and Peralta, with Cabrera and Garko/Martinez. That's just a train wreck defensively. Second, the market will continue to loosen up throughout the season as teams fall out of the race and look to slash payroll with Blue Light sales of veteran, proven talent. As the economy also conspires against cash-strapped teams, KW will be able to swoop in and get some bargains that were too costly...the likes of Brian Roberts, Chone Figgins, Orlando Hudson, etc., or another starting pitcher or bullpen piece. The season hasn't started...it's easy to predict gloom and doom and you will right about 25-33% of the time, just like Baseball Prospectus. Third, Minnesota was in the same exact position we are coming into last season...predicted for 4th place and written off by everyone. But their starting pitching and BA w/ RISP were off the charts good...none of their starters were predicted to enjoy the level of success they did so quickly, with the exception of Francisco Liriano, who was actually one of their disappointments down the stretch. It remains to be seen if he will ever be the same. Fourth, everyone just assumes that Jocketty was silly enough (and you don't win a WS as a GM being silly) to trade away 5-6 seasons of Homer Bailey for one season of an overpriced (currently) Jermaine Dye, and then undoubtedly lose him and not get draft pick compensation either. Jocketty remembers trades like V. Zambrano for Kazmir (although that was two pitchers, but a veteran for a raw talent) and those type of trade almost never occur anymore. Plus the White Sox under JR almost NEVER send money in a deal. Fifth, you're not taking into account both the present (as soon as this season) and future abilities of Josh Fields, Aaron Poreda, Dayan Viciedo, Tyler Flowers and Beckham to have a big impact on the major league club. We talk about looking for a repeat from Quentin/Ramirez/Danks/Floyd, but if they slide, isn't it equally as probable that two of those aforementioned players (if not 3) that have all been ranked near or close to the Top 50 MLB prospects will have an unexpected impact? Sixth, now is as good a time as any to find out what we really have with all these young players. Some of them won't make it. Others can be used as bargaining chips to acquire an impact bat or arm at midseason. Yes, there's the risk we're out of it at the ASB (like the Indians last year, or the White Sox in 2007), but the risk of not getting any value back for Fields or Anderson is also pretty high. Unfortunately, we lost Crede without getting anything in return and the same MIGHT happen w/ Orlando Cabrera. Seventh, after the TOP 5 prospects, we have a lot of interesting pieces that are close to making an impact...and KW just wants to throw them all into the mix and see which ones emerge victorious. FORMER PROSPECT, NOW SUSPECT (but still of value to other teams to varying degrees): Anderson, Owens, Marquez, Lillibridge, Betemit INTERESTING: Getz, Cole Armstrong, Clayton Richard, Jhonny Nunez (Yankees), Santos Rodriguez (Braves), Brandon Allen, Shelby, Jordan Danks Something will inevitably happen like Nunez or Rodriguez making the team out of ST, like Scott Radinsky or Boone Logan in seasons past. Eighth, all of major league baseball has been compressed and there is more parity than ever before, with the possible exceptions of the NYC teams...I agree, it would have been VERY NICE to add another veteran starter or CF/leadoff hitter. KW has much better information than any of us do, and he didn't pull the trigger on Taveras or someone like Daniel Cabrera. He did on Colon. It will be interesting to see how that low-risk gamble, and especially the ones made by the Red Sox, work out over the course of the season vis a vis the throw money at the problem approach of the Yankees. Every team in baseball has to be counting their lucky stars they are not in the position of the Blue Jays or Orioles. Every division looks to be wide open in baseball, except for the AL East and NL Central. Ninth, KW knows he has a lot on the line this season. He's making a huge bet that we can be competitive this season and that this will be the "bridge" year to get us to the "future" teams of 2010 and beyond. Historically, he has taken the approach of trying to put together a team capable of competing for the World Series every season. This has been the first season (because of payroll, aging roster and the economy) that he's taken a very different approach than in the past. But NEVER, EVER think that means he has given up on this season. Ozzie and KW are both too competitive and prideful to go through another 2007. Everyone in baseball knows the AL Central can be won by any of the teams (even the Royals, although that's a tougher argument), and the White Sox are the team best-positioned of any in the division to make a move at the break. The Twins are bound financially by two things...a new contract for Mauer or losing their "hometown hero" in the near future and massive club expenses with the building of the new stadium that will hold their payroll down. They also have one of the most talented players in baseball that nobody wants on their team (especially Gardenhire), and that is Delmon Young. Hopefully he will be traded before he can mature (if that happens) and destroy the rest of the division offensively. We dodged a bullet with David Ortiz, here's hoping Gardenhire gets his way (as with Garza) and Young is also traded. Tenth, KW also knows he's not going anywhere, and even another 2007 won't put his job at risk. It will be only after two seasons like 2007 in a row (09/10) that KW would be close to being on the "hot seat," and that would be more with the local media than JR. I also think it would be inevitable that Ozzie would do something crazy and be forced to resign, but I don't expect anything but a .500 team this year and a 90 win team in 2010 and beyond. We've had the best team in baseball at various points of the 2000, 2003, 2005, 2006 and 2008 seasons. I think KW has done a tremendous job fielding consistently competitive teams over the decade, although one could certainly argue the Twins have been more effective from a payroll/development and Division championships perspective. It's hard not to forget how close it was to 5 for the Twins (2002-2004, 2006, 2008) and just 2 (2000, 2005) for the Sox instead of 4 and 3. Big difference psychologically. Eleventh, our bench promises to be deeper and better than 2008: Hall's overbloated contract and inept arm is gone, Betemit provides a lot of versatility (I consider Uribe more of a starter than bench player last year), Anderson/Owens/Wise and then Lillibrige/Getz gives us an interesting player off the bench (especially Lillibridge) that we've been lacking since we let Ozuna go. Yes, you can argue that the catching position MIGHT be weaker, but it certainly won't be in 2010 and beyond.