whitesox61382

"No way Frank is going to turn down the $6 mil, he'd be lucky to get half that elsewhere." I disagree. While he is getting older, is solely a DH, and swings for the fences he did finish 2nd in the AL in HR's and 6th in OPS. That is worth more then 6M/yr, especially for teams that need offense and have financial flexibility: Baltimore, LA/Atlanta(if they feel confident putting him at 1B). I have supported KW for day one. Like Kark mentioned, if you are going to blame KW for the bad deals, than you have to credit him for the good deals, or you can not blame or credit him for any deals(if you feel that others are making the decisions), but you have to pick one way or the other. I like KW because he always looks to improve this team and he is very aggressive(the lack of aggressiveness was the main knock on RS). If you look at all of his trades, whether they have worked or not, his trades attempt to improve the weaknesses while giving up players from areas of strehgth. He can't predict if players are going to underachieve or get hurt. His job is to put talent on the field with the limited payroll that JR gives him, and for the most part he has done a good job of that. "Bartolo being around .500 after a terrible start is hardly what I'd call a "well" deal..... especially from a 20-game winner the season prior." I hate when people judge pitchers by wins and loses, becuase wins and loses can't be placed on individuals when they are determined by the ENTIRE teams play. If Colon pitches a complete game and gives up 1 run and the Sox offense is shut out, does Colon deserve a loss? Or if Colon gives up 2 unearned runs because of poor D behind him and he loses 2-1, does Colon deserve a loss? There are many other examples like this that show that you can't judge a pitchers effectiveness by wins and loses, because its a TEAM SPORT. The fact remains that Colon was a great addition(in which the Sox gave up next to nothing to get him) and put together an impressive season, especially the way he saved the bullpen with his CG, which is hard to measure. "2. Why would we want to re-sign Robbie Alomar? He will be more useless and more expensive next year than last year." I agree. I would much rather have the Sox give Harris or Miles a chance then overpay for an aging Alomar.

"Total payroll in all is $59.5 mill....give or take some." Unforunately you underestimate about half the salaries for 2004. "Colon ($11 mill)" Colon will get more then 11M. Starting pitching is always in demand, and he is the best starting pitcher on the FA market. He might like Chicago, but he isn't going to stay here if he is offered 2-3M/yr more by another team. It will probably take at least 13M/yr to keep him, and there is a rumor that the Sox have offered him a 3 year 40 million deal. It might be a structured deal and include incentives, but he will get more then 11M/yr I guarantee you that. "Buehrle ($1.5 mill)" Buehrle will probably get around 3M/yr through arbitration this year. The most a 1st year arbitration eligible pitcher has gotten was a little more then 3M, if I am not mistaken, and Buehrle's numbers are very comparable, so expect him to get around 3M, maybe even a little more. "Castillo 2B ($4 mill)" There is no way that you get Castillo for 4M. He is by far the best 2nd baseman on the FA market, and more importantly is a perfect leadoff hitter(something almost every team needs). I guarantee that he gets at least 6M/yr. I mean the guy made 4.85M in 2003, and you think he is going to take a paycut after putting up a .300+ BA, .360+ OBP, and 30+ SB in 4 out of the last 5 years? "Everett DH ($6 mill)" Everett is coming off one of his better offensive years in which he made 9.15M, and you think he is going to take a 3+M/yr paycut? "Thomas 1B ($6 mill)" I got a feeling that he will want his 8M/yr option. The guy is coming off a year in which he was 2nd in the AL in HR's(42) and 6th in OPS(.952), and I am sure that he would get more then 6M on the open market, so he will probably reject the 6M option and put the ball into the Sox court whether to offer him his 8M option. Either way I don't think he will take his 6M option. "Cabrera SS ($4 mill)" The guy made 3.3M last year, is a GG calibur SS, and is coming off his best offensive year. He will get more then 4M on the open market, especially considering he is the 3rd best SS and would be a good option for teams that don't want to pay 8+M/yr for either Tejada or Matsui. He will probably get around 6M/yr. "Konerko traded to Baltimore to save money and get a decent arm for the pen." The Sox will probably have to pay some of his salary OR take on a big salary in return. I also think Lightenberg is a FA, although I am not positive on that. When you adjust the salaries to the likely amount they will get: Colon(13M) +2M Buehrle(3M) +1.5M Castillo(7M) +3M Everett(8M) +2M Thomas(8M) +2M Cabrera(6M) +2M Sox paying some of Konerko's contract(2M) +2M So add about 14.5M to your estimated 59.5M payroll and you get a payroll around 74M, which simple isn't going to happen. As you can see the Sox are in a tough situtation this offseason because they have quite a few holes and little money to spend because they are commited to big long-term deals(Maggs, Konerko, Lee-arbitration, Thomas-if his option is picked up, Koch, Loazia-if his option is picked up, Buehrle-arbitration).

"1B Fullmer" I love the idea of Fullmer, however, he is a terrible defensive 1B. "2B Alomar" I would almost rather have Harris or Miles get a shot then bring back Alomar. It is clear to see that he just isn't a good offensive player any more and at his age isn't going to get any better. Harris offers great speed and D, and could probably put up similar offensive numbers. I have never been a huge fan of Miles, but all this guy does is hit. I think of a Todd Walker when I see Miles, a guy that doesn't do anything really good, but his ability to hit always gets him starting roles. IF Alomar wants more then 3M/yr then the Sox better let him go, and I just feel that they could get similar production from Harris or Miles for the minimum. "SS Guzman" Guzman would be a decent option, however, I think he is under contract for 1 more year with the Twins so the Sox would have to trade for him. IF he was available of course. "4. Wilson Alvarez" Alverez is my sleeper for next year. I really think he could be next years Loaiza, and I would love to see the Sox take a flyer on him. He was one of the most dominating pitchers in the 2nd half this past season, and could be hard for a bargain. "Gordon" I am a little concerned about his age and health problems, especially after the workload he had this past year. I think Hawkins would be a wiser investment and he probably wouldn't cost much more. "1B - Daubach" I think I am one of the few guys that actually likes Daubach and think that he could be a cheap replacement if Thomas and/or Konerko are gone. "SS - Carlos Guillen" He is my number one choice if the Sox don't get one of the big 3(Tejada, Matsui, Cabrera). "CF - Jose Cruz Jr." Cruz is a classic underachiever. He has all the potential, but has never put it all together. His .251 career batting average is an example of that, and I think the area that the Sox need to improve the most offensively is batting average. He would not be a good leadoff hitter either. Too many SO and not a high enough OBP. He isn't a CF either. He also has an option that San Fran could pick up, so he might not be available. "RF - Everett" Trading Maggs is a realistic possibility, so where would you trade him to and what would the sox get back in return? "Lidle" Lidle would be an interesting possibility depending on how much he wants. If he wants 6+M then I would have to pass, but if you could get him for around 4M than he might be a decent option. I would still like to see the sox resign Colon though, because I think pitching will/should be the key. "RP - Marte, Hasegawa, Hawkins, Koch, Wunsch, Wright, Sullivan" This bullpen would be great and I am a huge believer that a good bullpen is key in todays game, but it would cost you about 17-18M. That is a huge portion of the total payroll for a bullpen. "Bench - Burke, Graffanino, Gload, Miles, Harris, Rowand, Fulmer, Valentin" Thats a huge bench. Generally you have 6 relievers and 5 bench players.

"One thing you need to know about him is that he won't be on the team unless Kong or Frank is moved...." I really thing there is a good chance that at least 1 of them won't be back next year with a decent chance that both will be gone. If Thomas rejects his 6M option and asks for his 8M option, than I think the Sox might let him go. Rumor has it that KW has really been shopping Konerko as well. I would love to see the Sox let Thomas walk, trade Konerko, and then sign Spiezio AND Fullmer. Spiezio and Fullmer could probably be had for about 5M total opposed to 16M for Konerko and Thomas. The Sox probably wouldn't save exactly 11M because they would probably have to pay some of Konerko's salary OR take on a decent size salary in return, but they would save a good chunk of change that could be put to fill other needs. With Fullmer and Spiezio the Sox add 1 lefty bat and 1 switch hitter, Spiezio is better defensively then Konerko, both are on the right side of 32, both have decent speed for big guys, both have decent plate disipline, and both are respectible offensive players. At this point it is nothing but speculation, but 1 and maybe both could be a (cheap) possibility if either Thomas and/or Konerko aren't back.

Since everyone is being unrealistic here is my unrealistic(semi-reasonable) team. Manager: Gaston 1) Castillo 2B(7M) 2) Guillen SS(3M) 3) Fullmer DH(1.5M) 4) Maggs RF(14M) 5) Spiezio 1B(3.5M) 6) Crede 3B(400K) 7) Reed LF(400K) 8) Rowand CF(400K) 9) Olivo C (400K) total 30.6M 1) Colon RH(13M) 2) Buehrle LH(3M) 3) Loaiza RH(3.5M) 4) Garland RH(1M) 5) Schoeneweis/Alverez(1.5M) total 22M 1) Hawkins RH(4M) 2) Marte LH(1M) 3) Wunsch LH(1M) 4) Koch RH(6M) 5) Wright RH(400K) 6) Ginter/Rauch/Diaz RH(400K) total 12.8M 1) Graffy IF(1M) 2) Daubach 1B/DH(1M) 3) Harris CF/2B(400K) 4) Borchard OF(400K) 5) Rivera/Burke C(400K) total 3.2M total payroll 67.6 - a little too much for JR taste I think this team would be the clear favorite to win the Central. The offense would probably be better because they improve the 3 major weaknesses: batting average, OBP, and speed. There would be a drastic decrease in HR's, however I think the fact that the Sox ranked 4th in HR's and 5th in OPS, but only 8th in runs scored shows that if this team improves their 3 weaknesses they will score more runs on offense even with a decrease in power. The starting pitching remains th e same with the exception of the 5th starter. Loaiza will probably regress some, but improvement from the 5th starter should counter that and give the Sox one of the top rotations in the AL. The bullpen should be slightly better with Hawkins and hopefully a better Koch. The defense would be significantly better as well. The moves to make this happen would be the following: Trades: Lee to Seattle for Guillen and prospect Konerko to LA or Baltimore for a so-so prospect Signs: Castillo Spiezio Fullmer Hawkins possible Hawkins Resign: Colon Graffy Daubach This is unrealistic because there is no way that JR spends 67M. It will be an interesting offseason though.

"61382: How did Schoeneweis do against right handed hitters? Pretty poorly, as I recall. If he starts, the other team will load up, and he'll get creamed. The only stats I have on him for 2003 are his season long stats, not the splits between the Sox and Angels." His career averages as a starter between 00-02 are 8-10 5.25 ERA 5.2IP/start, and I am sure most teams stacked their lineups with right hand hitters, so that really doesn't bother me. The fact is that his career averages as a starter are better then the average stats for a 5th starter, and a SIGNIFICANT improvement over the production the Sox got from their 5th starters combined in 2003. Throughout the majors teams have instability with their 5th starter(s) and Schoeneweis would provide stability and consistancy. I am not a huge Schoeneweis fan, but I realize that he is a better 5th starter then most in the majors. Its that simple. "The only way he sticks for the season is if he is used exclusively in lefty vs lefty situations." I disagree. One of the reasons that KW said that he got him was to give him another chance to start, and I think that at this point he is the favorite for the spot(assuming the Sox keep him for 2004). Not only that, but if the Sox want to win next year he is by far the best option, because you don't know what you are going to get from a rookie. "He is overpaid and we lost a super minor league pitching prospect in Bittner" That is a DRASTIC overexaggeration. I follow the minors religiously, and Bittner was FAR from a super pitching prospect. In fact I would say that the chances of him making the majors are less then 50%. He is already 23 and has never pitched above A ball. He is pitching against guys 2-3 years younger then him, and SHOULD be dominating. Besides, very few relievers in the minors make it in the majors. A majority of your relievers in the majors are failed starters. Bittner is FAR from a super prospect.

"Payton also hit very well on the road, so you can't credit Coors Field for his stats." His home and away splits are pretty drastic. .917 2003 home OPS .813 2003 away OPS 1.416 2002 Coors OPS in 74 AB's .751 2002 OPS as a Met .982 2002 OPS as a Rockie I would say those are pretty straight forward stats that tell the entire story. Payton's numbers have REALLY benefited from playing in Coors. He is nothing more then a high .700/low .800 OPS guy away from Coors, which is nothing special. Lee has put up better numbers over his career, has much more potential, and is 3 1/2 years younger. If the Sox move Lee, than maybe Payton might be a decent CHEAP replacement, but the outfield is not weakness. The Sox need to focus on retaining/improving the pitching, and then try and improve the middle infield. Payton is nothing special and doesn't address a major weakness. "The guy can hit, run, steal, field, everything except throw." Steal??? He has never stolen more then 7 bases in a season, and has been caught stealing more then he has stolen a base over his career. Over a 162 game season he averages 7 SB and 7 CS while Lee averages 12 SB and 5 CS. I am not the smartest person in the world, but I think Lee's SB numbers are better. "If we offered a couple of pitchers like Ginter and Malone, they would jump on them like a tall dog." Why would we give up a pitching prospect, something the Sox don't have a lot of, for an outfielder, something the Sox have too many of? That just doesn't make any sense. You trade from your strengths to improve your weaknesses, not the other way around. "What about either of these names: Hasegawa and Hawkins" I agree with you on this, espeically Hawkins. He is #1 on my right handed reliever wish list this offseason.

"Not only do they have a bunch of good young talent" Who are you talking about? I just looked through their stats from last year, and I didn't see a bunch of good young talented players. Helton, Walker, Payton, and Wilson were really the only good offensive players that had good years last year and none of them are younger then 29. "Case in point is Jay Payton, a terrific left fielder who they fear will command about $3 MM at the arbitration table." I am sorry, but Payton and the words terrific left fielder should not be in the same sentence. He is a decent left fielder, but isn't as good as Lee. Another thing that you have to consider when looking at offensive players from Colorado is inflated offensive stats because they play in such a great offensive park. For example, your boy Payton never produced an OPS above .778 before arriving in Colorado. "First thing we need to do is settle our pitching staff." I couldn't agree with you more. I think pitching is priority #1 followed closely by improving the middle infield. "Gordon still has awfully good stuff -- I hope we keep him. Of course, I have no idea how much he thinks he is worth." For 1M/yr Gordon is a good risk to take, but for 3-4M/yr(what he might get this year) at his age, with his injury problems, and the amount of IP he had I think that is a bad risk. I agree that the Sox need to get at least 1 quality right handed reliever, but I would rather spend 3-4M/yr on a guy like Hawkins, who has similar stuff, is younger, and not injury prone.

I disagree with you on Schoeneweis. I think he could be effective as the 5th starter next year. His average season as a starter isn't great 8-10 5.25 ERA 5.2 IP/start, but it is better then most teams 5th starter and would be a SIGNIFICANT improvement over the production that the Sox got from the 5th starter in 2003 3-11 6.75 ERA 4.2 IP/start. If Schoenweis was the Sox 5th starter from day 1(assuming KW traded for him in the offseason), than I think the Sox could still be playing right now. He would also add a 2nd lefty to the rotation, which I love.

"Cost of Vazquez+Colon+good shortstop (Kaz Matzui hopefully) would probably cost us about $30 mil. $10 mil for Vazquez, $13 mil for Colon, and probably $5-7 mil for a good shortstop. Now, if Konerko and Thomas are gone than this would be plausible. Because in that case we would really only be adding about 7 mil to the payroll from these moves. But since JR is cheap realistically the chances of this happening are slim to none." Where to begin? Lets start with the payroll implications that doing the above would have. The Sox have approximately 45M ALREADY tied up for next year(assuming that they take Buehrle, Lee, and Garland to arbitration) and that doesn't include picking up any options or signing anyone. If you resign Colon(13M/yr), trade for Vazquez(10M/yr), and sign a good SS like Tejada/Matsui/Cabrera(7+M/yr), than you add about 30M to that 45M already owed. Lets say that the Sox let Thomas go(very likely if he wants his 8M/yr option) and trade Konerko(easier said then done) that would subtract ONLY 8M from that 45M because Thomas's salary isn't included in that 45M, so you would end up adding approximately 22M to that 45M giving you a payroll of 67M. We already know that JR will probably have a limited payroll in the 55-60M range, so that would be AT LEAST 7M over the likely payroll. Not only that, but there are still major holes at DH, 1B, 2B, 5th starter, bench, and RH bullpen pitching. Although I will admit that a top 4 pitching rotation of Colon, Vazquez, Buehrle, and Garland would be awesome and keep the Sox in almost every game no matter how bad the offense is. I would say that there is about a 50/50 chance of resigning Colon assuming that the 3 year 40M contract has been offered. However, with each passing day I think the odds of him resigning become less, and I have a feeling that the Yankees will offer him more money. If Colon DOES resign, than the Sox WILL NOT go after Vazquez and will probably have to move some big salaries. If Colon DOES NOT resign, than the Sox might go after Vazquez if he is indeed available. In all likelyhood I see the Sox adding a middle of the rotation starter if Colon doesn't resign. I highly doubt that the Sox will go after any of the big 3 SS(Tejada, Matsui, Cabrera). I pointed out earlier that the Sox already have 45M tied up for next year and spend 6+M/yr for a SS would leave them very little money to address other holes mentioned above. The SS that I would like to see the Sox go after is Guillen from Seattle. There have been some rumors that he is available and he will make around 3M/yr next year, which is reasonable. He is a very solid all around player. Maybe a Lee for Guillen and a prospect would be a fair trade. My 2nd option at SS if Guillen is a little too expensive would be Vazquez from San Diego. He is a good OBP guy, plays solid D, and will make close to the minimum next year. I would love to add Vidro, but it simply isn't going to happen. The Sox just don't have the financial flexibility to add a player like him, which is too bad because he is one of the top 2B in the game.

I have always liked this guy and have been mentioning that the Sox should get him ever since I realized that Singleton had a fluke rookie year in CF in 1999. When the Colon to Boston rumors started mid-season this year, I said that the Sox should take nothing less then Nixon and Sanchez. Lost in the great numbers that the Boston offense has produced is the fact that Nixon was 4th in the AL in OPS. Besides the numbers I love the way that he plays the game. He would be a great addition to this team. The only problem is that there is no way that Boston trades this guy now. Oh well.

Are you kidding? If that is the same guy that I think it is, than I play hockey at the U of A with his son Casey. That would be awesome, although I don't know what kind of experience he has.

My pick from the start was Purdue(after I found out that Clarett was going to miss the entire season). The are really the sleeper in the bunch(considering they have gotten little attention), but they COULD very easily be undeafed if they didn't fall asleep against Bowling Green. They have the top defense in the Big Ten(yes if better then Ohio States) and a very good offense to back them up. Orton is probably the 2nd best QB in the confrence behind Smoker, and the running game has been a pleasant surprise. They also have a very good coach in Joe Tiller. The only thing they have against them is arguable the toughest schedule of the contenders with games AT Wisconsin, Michigan, and Ohio State. Those are some tough road games, but I think Purdue is the MOST BALANCED of the contenders and could find themselves in the Rose Bowl if they can find a way to win 2 out of those 3 tough road games. Wisconsin - has the top offense in the confrence(with a healthy Davis), but their D is just too inconsistant Michgan St - is probably the 2nd biggest sleeper in the confrence, and with Smoker at QB they have a chance in every game Michigan - probably has the most talent of the contenders, but something seems to be missing. Perry isn't as good as his start showed and I still question Navarre. Minnesota - gained a lot of respect from me after the Michigan game that they SHOULD HAVE WON. There running game is very dangerous and their QB(who has been in the league since I was in grade school it seems) is very solid. I question their defense. Iowa - looks good one week and then looks bad the next. I don't think they have enough offensive firepower to win the division. Ohio St. - with Clarett this team wins the Big Ten, without him they just don't have enough offense to beat the better teams.

"the chances of Cotts being the 5th starter next season are pretty good" I disagree entirely. He BETTER NOT be in the majors to start next year. I am sorry, but showing decent control in a small sample at the AFL is not enough. He NEEDS to show AT LEAST 1/2 season of good control in the upper minors before management EVEN THINKS about calling him up. I don't care if his ERA is below 1.00, if he is walking more then 4 guys per 9 innings he isn't ready for the majors, and he showed us that in his call up in 2003. I guarantee thats how management views Cotts as well. Mark my words, Cotts WILL NOT start the 2004 season in the majors. Schoey probably has the inside track on the 5th starters spot, and I think thats one of the reasons he was brought over here. His average season as a starter isn't great 8-10 5.20 ERA, but it is a SIGNIFICANT improvement over the 3-11 6.75 ERA combined that the Sox got from the 5th spot last year. Rauch and Diaz are probably next in line after Schoey, and either/both could make the team out of ST.

" Sox don't need castoffs from the Twins. We can't afford them either. Plus, we are overcrowded as it is. Maggs, Lee, Everett, Rowand, and we Have to give Jeremy Reed a chance to start. No room at DH with our twin slowpokes, Frankie and Paulie." I would love to see Stewart in a Sox uniform if you can get him for under 6M/yr. Jones is also a very solid outfielder, and I love the way that the ball jumps off his bat(I just wish he would walk more). You make it sound like ex-Twins players aren't any good, but these are the type of hard working players that have lead the Twins to 2 straight division titles. The Sox outfield, DH, and 1B is anything but set in stone. Maggs making 14M/yr or about 25% of the total payroll next year might be on the trade market. Lee will probable get a nice increase through arbitration and might be the easiest to trade of the bunch. Everett is a FA, and is as good as gone. Rowand will probably be starting in CF. Reed will probably start in AAA to get a little more seasoning. Thomas will probable walk if he wants his 8M/yr option. Rumor has it that KW is really trying to shop Konerko. So as you can see the Sox outfield, DH, 1B is anything but set in stone or overcrowded for that matter. If the Sox move 1 or 2 of these guys, than they will need to find a couple of cheaper replacements and Jones/Stewart could be an option.

"I shudder at the thought..... LOL Then again it is a good thing he has some good people around him. Let's hope that helps." I think people around here should give KW a little respect. Is he a great GM? NO. Is he an aggressive GM that tries to improve weaknesses and put a contender on the field with a limited payroll? Yes. All of his trades haven't worked out, but the intentions were good. Its KW job to put talent on the roster, but its the players job to perform on the field. I also hate people that say other people should be credited for KW's moves or that he is getting TONS of help. That is just some BS. ALL GM's get help to some extent from scouts, directors, assistants, ect. In order to accurately tell how much help a GM is getting someone would have to actually WORK in the front office, and I doubt any of you do that. I also hate how people credit the good moves to others, but blame the bad moves on KW. You have to pick one way or the other. Either KW is getting a TON of help and others should take credit for the moves whether GOOD OR BAD, or KW should get credit for the GOOD OR BAD moves. It will be interesting to see what KW does. If the Sox make a solid run at the playoffs in 2004 with the constrants that KW has, than I think he should get some respect and keep his job. If the Sox struggle and don't finish above .500, than I think KW should be relieved of his duties. Like I said I don't envy him. He is going to have to be very creative in order to put a contender on the field with the amount of holes and little money to fill the holes.

If there is one thing I am excited about it is the talent in rookie ball, mostly coming from this past draft. Besides the guys you listed here are some other players to keep an eye on. Valido 18 SS low-advanced rookie ball .307/6/31 17 SB - is probably the best middle infield prospect after only a half year in rookie ball Chris Young 20 OF low-advanced rookie ball .290/7/28 21 SB - a guy that doesn't get much attention, but he is a good 5 tool prospect to keep an eye on Bounds 22 1B advanced rookie ball .326/9/47 20 2B - i really think this guy is a sleeper, a big powerful left handed hitter Lopez 19 RP low rookie ball 2.37 ERA 49.1 IP 38 H 18 BB 53 SO - the guy impressed me last year and didn't disappoint this year Fabio Castro 18 LP low rookie ball-low A 1.72 ERA 47 IP 29 H 19 BB 59 SO - dominated rookie ball and got a cup of coffee with low A ball Tisch 23 LP low rookie ball-low A 3.13 60.1 IP 52 H 21 BB 44 SO - good numbers in rookie ball and a cup of coffee with low A ball Other names to keep an eye on. Schnurstein 3B - struggled a little this year, but is probably the best 3B prospect in the minors Haigwood LP - has a good arm from the left side Gonzalez SS - i am not giving up on this kid yet, but he will need to come back with a big year next year Julio Castro RP - relievers don't get much attention, but he has been good all year at 2 different levels Lopez 2B - one of the younger players in A ball has some good tools Rauch RP - still to soon to give up on this guy and could be the 5th starter next year Diaz RP - solid year again in AAA, has always put up good numbers at every stop and has a good arm, look for him in 2004 Majewski RP - good reliever with a plus arm, could see major league action in 2004 Munoz LP - after a bad 1st week he really settled down and put together a decent year Ginter RP - could start the year in the pen after a solid year in AAA

Like I said before I don't envy KW this offseason. We will see just how good a GM that KW is this offseason. What Sox fans fail to realize is that with salary increases, arbitration eligible players, and options I figure that the Sox will have a little more then 45M on the books for next year. That still leaves major holes at DH(that 45M doesn't include Thomas's option), 2B(unless you feel Miles or Harris is an everyday 2B), SS(that 45M doesn't include Valentin's option), front of the rotation starter(doesn't include Colon resigning), right handed reliever(only proven right hander in the pen would be Koch), and bench(most of the key bench players are FA). That is a lot of holes to fill with about 10-15M to spend. That is why I think we will see 3 things happen this offseason. 1) AT LEAST 1 big salary will be traded, and possible 2 or 3. 2) The Sox will find cheap replacement players to fill some of the holes. 3) The Sox WILL NOT be big players on the FA market. It will be VERY hard to put a team that can win the division with so many holes and very little money to spend, and that is why KW's job this offseason is going to be VERY hard. If the Sox find a way to make the playoffs next year with a 60M/yr payroll, than KW SHOULD finally get some respect as a solid GM. If the Sox finish around .500(which is likely at this point), than KW should be on the hot seat for the 2005 season. If the Sox finish below .500, than KW should be gone.

"Are you saying the White Sox have been mentioned with Tejada and Matsui? Other fans wishful thinking fans, who has mentioned the Sox considering going after either one of these guys? If you have a source, I'd love to see or hear it." I believe the Sox were mentioned with Tejada in a yahoo sports article about a week ago. "That is the exact same thing I thought of when he mentioned Padres and SS. Jimenez, NO!" To begin with, Jimenez has a TON of talent whether you want to admit it or not. His numbers were still MUCH better then Alomars, and after he was traded he put up very good numbers for Cincinnati. The BIG difference between Vazquez and Jimenez is work ethic. A buddy of mine that lives in San Diego said that there was an article with quotes from the San Diego manager talking about Vazquez's great work ethic. So I think he would be a GREAT OPTION with all things considered. "The Sox painted themselves into a corner. Jose has an option for $5 MM. That makes him untradeable. Regarding that position, you might as well be thinking about 2005." The Sox don't owe Valentin anything next year. He didn't reach the PA ammount that would guarantee this 2004 option. Mark my words, Valentin will not be the starting SS next year. The draft is a very risk business. You have to mix in safe players with players that have high ceilings and hope for the best. If you compare the Sox draft/development history over the past decade to other organizations you will see that there isn't a huge difference. Its easy to look back now and say that the Sox SHOULD have drafted this guy instead of that one, but highsight is 20-20. Also you fail to mention the guys drafted below the Sox draft picks that never panned out, and there are a lot more of those. I do think the Sox should draft more college players in the early rounds and I think they should focus on hitters with good plate disipline(ala Beane). I am excited about this past draft. While it is still earlier, I can't remember the last time that so many 1st year players put up great numbers. My advice is to be patient.

"We are stuck with Jose at SS for 2004." Is this just your gut feeling? I think Sox management is looking for a change. They have been mentioned with Tejada and to some degree Matusi, which leads me to believe that Valentin's days are numbered. I doubt that management is serious about going after either, but I think it is an indication that Valentin will not be the starting SS next year. I really think that the Sox should take a look at Vazquez. He isn't a great SS, but he is a better option then Valentin, especially when you consider age and salary. It is just speculation on my behalf though. All I know for sure is that KW is going to have his hands full this offseason and Sox fans could see a lot of new faces next year(for better or worse). "I bet Valido is here in 2 years. At least i'm betting he will be." HIGHLY unlikely. The kid is 18 and just graduated high school. I HOPE that the Sox don't even think about rushing him like that either. That is one way to really hurt a prospects development. If you are willing to bet that he will be in Chicago in 2 years, than I recommend staying away from Vegas, because that is not a good bet. Here is the most likely progression of Valido, assuming he doesn't get injuried and continues to develop, which in itself is a major question(a good half year in rookie ball is way to small of a sample size to make an accurate judgement). He will most likely start next year in advanced rookie ball, and MAYBE will get a taste of low A ball. In 2005 he will probably start in low A ball and MIGHT make it to high A ball if he plays well. In 2006 he will probably start in high A ball POSSIBLE AA if he is really progressing fast. In 2007 he will probably start in AA or AAA and MIGHT get his 1st major league action at some point during the 2007 season. This is probably the earliest that you will see Valido, and that is boardline rushing him. So he is AT LEAST 3 years away and probably longer. "If it was up to me I would like Renteria but too much money is involved. If we could get Cabrera than Thanks Jose.. But Orlando is here" I would love to see either Renteria or Cabrera in a Sox uniform, but I just don't see that happening. What Sox fans fail to realize is that the current payroll for 2004, taking into consideration contract raises and likely increases through arbitration, is pretty close to the total payroll amount that the Sox will have, and that still leaves MANY holes such as the middle infield, starting pitching, and bullpen. My guess is that the Sox will not be big players on the FA market. Look for KW to move AT LEAST 1 big salary and possible 2 or 3, and filling in the holes with these trades and the rest with cheap options(like a Vazquez at SS). Players like Tejada and Matsui are pipedreams.

"Jason, I liked your idea about getting Khalil Greene. Let the Pads have Vazquez or let them sign Tejada if they want another big name player in their park." I doubt that San Diego goes after Tejada. They have enough offense and top prospect Greene to play SS. Look for them to spend money on pitching this offseason. I don't think Greene will be available. I also think Greene is a little overrated. I am a strong believer in plate disipline, especially in young hitters, and Greene has yet to show solid plate disipline in the minors and looked overmatched in the small sample at the end of the year. "Vazquez is pretty good. But's gonna be moved to second base. He hardly never plays Short in Winterball either. So i don't think he's an Option. People complain about Jose but what else is out there after Tejada and Renteria? Jose Hernandez?? Please No, Rey Ordoñez is gonna retire Clayton..NOT!!! So not much out there. I think Jose can keep short warm until Robert Valido is Ready." I would rather have Vazquez keeping that spot warm instead of Valentin(Valido is at least 3 years away though so it will be a long wait). He will give you a better average, better OBP, better D, cheaper, younger, more versatile, and slightly better speed.

"I don't mind Vazquez, but I wouldn't give up anything too decent for him. He really reminds me of Jimenez. I'm not comparing attitudes, but I just find them to be similar players. Good OBP, solid defensively. Remember, I was a big Jimenez fan, so this isn't a knock on Vazquez." I still think Jimenez is going to be a good player in this league despite his attitude. "Hmmm he'd be an option if da Padres go after Tejada. Could get .290 and 20 to 30 SB's at the top of the order, dunno if he's a good enough fielder, but yeah sure he's an option." The thing that I like about Vazquez is his plate disipline. If he can get his average in the .280 range, than he will likely have a .360+ OBP, which would look nice in the #2 hole. His D is actually pretty solid. He doesn't have great range or arm, but makes very few errors and is versatile.

There has been a lot of talk about SS canidates for next year. It seems like the majority of people don't want Valentin back and I am on that boat. Tejada and Matsui are the top FA SS, but both are out of the Sox financial ability. Cabrera could be a decent, REALITIVEY cheap option, but I still don't think the Sox will spend much money on the FA market. A guy that no one has mentioned, or knows much about is the San Diego SS Ramon Vazquez. He isn't a great SS, but makes the minimum, is only 27, and would be a nice fit for the Sox. He could be available with San Diego giving the SS job to top prospect Greene. He would be a significant power decrease from Valentin, however, he is better in the areas that need improvement. He will probably hit in the .260-.270 range, which isn't great, but a nice improvement over Valentin. He has solid plate disipline and has managed to post an OBP over .340 the last 2 years. He doesn't have great speed, but he is a smart baserunner, and could be compared to a younger Valentin on the basepads. He is above average defensively, and similar to Clayton because he doesn't have great range or arm, but makes all of the routine plays with few errors. He is also very versatile and can play either 2B or 3B as well. Another positive that I have heard about him is that he has a great work ethic. At 27 there is still room for improvement and he could be a long term solution. I think it would be wise for the Sox to check him out. It might not take more then a pitcher liek Wright/Ginter/Diaz to get him. Sox fans have to face the reality that KW has very little flexibility with the payroll that is currently tied up and many holes to fill. I think Vazquez would be a legit option that fits financially. What are your thoughts?

"you helped me prove my point further when you said that Castillo was caught stealing 19 times this season." What point are you trying to prove? That his base stealing has decreased? I am sorry but a decrease in 1 year isn't cause for concern. The fact remains that he is one of the faster guys in the league. Always among the league leaders in infield hits and has stolen 50+ bases twice before. His 19 CS tells me that he needs to improve his base stealing. One of the things lacking offensively was speed, and Castillo addresses that in a big way. That is my point. "And as I said earlier, he's not an all-star." Please define what an AS 2B is, because I certainly think a .300+ average, .360+ OBP, 30+ SB, and solid D is AS calibur numbers. I might be mistaken, but I believe he has been an AS before. The Sox have a weakness in the middle infield and top of the order and Castillo addresses both needs. He would be a great addition any way that you slice it. "Unlike most people, I am not for signing him." Why? If you can get him for around 6-7M/yr, than that would be a great addition. Which would you rather have? Colon(13M) Alomar(3M) or LHernandez(6M) Castillo(7M) 3M to address other needs To me the answer is simple. The Sox are an organization that can't afford to dedicate large sums of money to 1 player, like Colon(or Maggs for that matter). The Sox need to improve their balance, and they can't do it by giving players large contracts. Besides, the Sox starting pitching was a strength and the offense was slightly below average. If you add a player like Castillo instead of Alomar, than you will see an instant increase in offense. If you sign LHernandez instead of Colon you only have a slight decrease that should be made up and then some by an increase from the 5th starter(assuming someone like Shoey puts up numbers similar to his career averages as a starter). This team would be more balanced and more talented with LHernandez and Castillo instead of Colon and Alomar, plus you have an extra 3M to put to other weaknesses(maybe a dominating right handed reliever). Thats why signing Castillo would be wise.

"His steals also took a major decline this season. And don't say it's because of McKeon, because Juan Pierre led the major leagues in steals." It has almost everything to do with McKeon and his coach style. The Marlins, as a whole, were running crazy before McKeon got there, but once he came they almost completely stopped. Pierre, for example, had 41 SB in the 1st half and only 21 in the 2nd half. Why? McKeon isn't a running manager. Still Catillo's 19 CS is not good any way that you spin it, however, his speed in general is undisputed and would certainly answer a major weakness for the Sox. "Castillo is a good player, not a great player. Definitely not an all-star player" A .300+ average, .360+ OBP, 30+ steals, and solid D in 4 of the last 5 years is hard to argue with. Castillo is one of the top 2B in the game. Not only that but he addresses the major weaknesses on offense(higher OBP, more speed, and a true leadoff hitter). For anything less then 8M/yr and Castillo would be a GREAT addition. Pitching is something that shouldn't be neglected, however, the Sox starting pitching was in the top 4 in the AL. The Sox offense was ranked 8th in runs scored. So you have to realize that the offense needs tinkering and the starting pitching needs to be similar(get a solid replacement for Colon and get better production from the 5th starter is realistic and would net the Sox similar numbers from the starting pitching).