michelangelosmonkey

The full article was behind the paywall so I just saw he was irritated at the meme. Sox payroll right now is at $125m A top 5 payroll is $175m. If we really don't increase payroll aggressively in the next couple of years...I agree and will hate on Hahn (or JR). Still if looking at this strategically I love our position...zero bad contracts and a low payroll as we enter the window. So many ways we can go.

This is frequently stated by many but I'm not sure I exactly follow. We have three proven innings eating front line starters. We have Cease who is half way there. We have Rodon and Lopez with lots of starting experience and we have Kopech and Crochett who I keep advocating as the "fifth" starter with three innings for each. I feel like that is five exciting starters (K-C as the fifth) with two back ups with experience/upside. If you pay Bauer that eliminates the K-C concept...and also eliminates the extensions of Gio or Lopez...or stops us from getting Sale or Wheeler at the deadline. I'm not sure outside of the Dodgers that any team has MORE starting pitching depth than the White Sox. Obviously one of the top three blowing out their arms ruins things...which is true for all none Dodger teams...you can stay up at night worrying about it but I'd ask you which move would have fixed it?

I appreciate a good counter argument...I'm just not sure what is the point of being nasty about it...I give a range of potential outcomes...given the argument that Vaughn could be worse than EE. And you don't just counter my position...you say it is ridiculous and nonsensical. You could come back and say...let's call his upside Konerko instead of Frank...that's fair. I think it's great when people point out that the last "can't miss" guy we had was Gordon Beckham. It helps me frame things because I remember in GB's rookie season he put up a 2.2 WAR in his first 100 games and then 5.2 WAR his next 1000. I think secretly we all know that any of these guys could end up being bums. And when I start talking about 2021 with potentially Frank Thomas at first, Rod Carew at 2b, Mike Schmidt at 3b. Ken Griffey Jr in CF, Manny Ramirez in LF...you can tell me to put down the crack pipe...I probably need that occasionally....but man we are all fans of the same team...we all WANT that to happen. Sox brothers if nothing else.

But I didn't...I said that was his range of outcomes...EE's .673 and FT .983. And if you look at a lot of his attributes he is like Frank...great batters eye, great approach, natural power. He is VERY unlikely to be that good...but I think he could be 90% as good as Frank which would be about a 5 WAR a year for 7 years.

I think it must be frustrating for Hahn because I think he has a clearly defined plan that really seems like its working...and yes he has a budget...and yes the money will be spent. But isn't it possible he didn't like any of the big names this offseason? The big fish were...Bauer...who had an amazing 73 innings in 2020 COVID year, after being fairly mediocre in 2019...a year where his contending team traded him at the trade deadline...that is a very controversial guy...and he got $40 million a year??? Instead he got Lance Lynn. Realmuto who we didn't need...and Springer who was going to be paid a premium as a centerfielder which we didn't need. Maybe he could have outbid everyone...but what if he uses that money to extend Gio...or take bad contracts (Sale, Yelich) at the deadline or watches how the team unfolds and spends then. We don't know...but given our lack of knowledge, and with the predicate that he's done really well with the rebuild...he gets to hear he sucks and he lied by 3/4 of the twitterverse...and 3/4 of Soxtalk. At THIS point we should give them man some trust. Not total but at least guarded.

I insult no one else on this board. I did not start out by insulting you. Months ago, after half a dozen arguments with you, I realized that you weren't here to discuss or persuade or follow the White Sox you were here to troll people...and honestly...you are great at it. I'm getting the hang of this message board thing. It's mostly fun...you just have to check under every bridge you cross because trolls exist. Have a great day RagRag.

Dude...you distort EVERY argument...and then come back with a pomposity that cannot be real. And yes, I have been cruel with my comments...and yes I then did reengage because you comment on every stream and I am inexperienced enough with message boards that I did not really understand what a troll is. As for "If I talk about apples and you immediately ignore..." is EXACTLY what you do. I try to put reasoned responses on here...I try to make my arguments and I respect even those who strongly disagree with me (honestly Collins is going to be great)...but 100% of the time you misrepresent what I and others are arguing, 100% of the time you insult the people you disagree with and 100% of the time you view the White Sox in the most negative way. I don't think you are real...I think you are a Cubs fan...or maybe a Yankees fan...that thinks it will be funny to come on a teams message board and wind people up. Thus my too often "too stupid to argue with" comments. I apologize. I won't say it again. Neither will I engage.

Ha ha....yup. Too stupid to argue with.

Some of your criticism is fair...we optimists should not be dunking on you pessimists...but it just can be exhausting on Soxtalk where it seems 3/4 of the regular posters are so negative...and yes not 100% negative...it generally starts out as "I'm excited about this team but..." and then we have to hear some tirade about Tony LaRussa being a drunk or JR being cheap. Why is that interesting reading? Giolito had an interview the other day where he said "Bummer has the best pitch in all of baseball". That's so interesting especially compared to the 1000 time we have to read where we are idiots for having traded Tatis. As for the "not spending money" constant concept...I get bored re-writing this but JR HAS had top 5 payrolls in the 2000's, 90's and 80's when the team was good. If the plan is to have a long window part of that is not handing out bad or un-necessary contracts. Dodgers and Yankees can get away with that...but being the second, and somewhat unloved, team in a market is always going to make that hard. If you think spending money is the way to win...the Phillies, Rockies, Angels, Mets, Giants etc would like to say hello. You win by talent evaluation...which I'm pretty pleased at right now (and was very unhappy with for decades before). You sustain winning by sensible budgeting. Right now we are in a great position to be vultures...when the Brewers season crashes...ask them about Yelich. When the Bosox season crashes go after Sale. When the Phillies season crashes go after Harper or Wheeler. Right now the Padres have $100 million committed in 2022 to four guys that are in their 30's. I'm ok watching this play out.

You know what is speculation? Everything you and everyone else here says. The difference is your speculation is always negative. There is a range of potential outcomes for Vaughn this year...EE .627 OPS from last year would be the ridiculously lower bound. Frank Thomas's rookie season...roughly same age, same path, same hitting style (high average, high walks, plus power) OPS of .987 would be the upper bound. I'd be happy to bet you any sum of money that Vaughn's OPS will be better than .627. It is absolute speculation that 30 year old Bauer will be the Cy Young TB of 2020 and not the TB with the 4.5 ERA of 2019. It is absolute speculation that the 31 year old George Springer will be the amazing 2020 GS and not the meh GS of 2018. When you look at young players you SPECULATE on how they will evolve...we saw Robert destroy the minor leagues, we saw him destroy MLB in his first month...and then he was TERRIBLE his last month. If you want to look at that body of work and say...he'll probably continue to be terrible...ok...that's a position to take...no one can refute that. I just think you are the guy that sees pictures of your co-workers new baby and says...she'll probably turn out to be ugly. You might be right, you might be wrong but you are always unlikeable.

Any team could have had him for a million dollars of international pool money. Are the Bucks geniuses for drafting Giannis 17th and all the other teams idiots? Every NFL team passed on Tom Brady about five times including the Patriots. Sometimes there is just damn luck in player development.

There are two separate arguments...trading for Shields=bad...which MANY on Sox talk said at the time (though your regression story isn't true...he averaged 3.5 WAR the previous 5 years and had a 3.00 ERA and 0.7 WAR through the first third of the season. looking elite until he gave up 10 runs in his last start before being traded). Lance Lynn could absolutely become James Shields 2.0. Those that argued about trading Dunning for him should have used JS as exhibit A. Including Tatis was not a bungle it was bad luck...no one on Sox talk or anywhere that I can find, concurrently, bemoaned including him in the trade. I can accept the Shields=Bad argument because it's reasonable at the time. Though Its only a debacle in hindsight...I have made the argument that at the time of the Verlander trade the Astros could have been getting James Shields 2.0...it just turned out right for them and wrong for Shields. Roll the dice you take your chances.

Yes...by the time he got state side he began turning people's heads. But that's not when he was traded. Months before ANY TEAM in baseball, including the Padres could have had, Tatis, Jr for a million dollars signing bonus. In the exact same signing period the White Sox gave twice as much money to Franklin Reyes who also had a family member (brother) who was a major league player. He "...has shown raw power and a plus arm"...and he was out of baseball two years later. If the Padres had taken him instead of Tatis we wouldn't be talking about a debacle. There are tens of thousands of 17 year old baseball players and only one of them turned into the greatest player of all time. If you think this was not just bad luck...OK.

Throwing in Carlos Colmenarez in a trade almost never matters...there's new ones coming every year. Even if its for something as grubby as money. We can't be paralyzed because the powerball hit.

Tatis was not on anyones top 25 list of international prospects that year. Look over the last fifty years at the players outside the top 25 international players and how many made the major leauges...then look at the ones that went on to be the best player in baseball. Heres the list: Fernando Tatis, Jr. If he were signed this year he wouldn't be in our top 50 prospects. If by design you mean the White Sox went to the padres and said "you can take any one prospect outside our top 50"...It was a reasonable upside bet for them. But it was really just horrible luck.

And I just have to repeat....The Tatis trade was not a debacle...it was putting a lottery ticket in a birthday card for someone at work and it turns out to be the winning powerball. You sure look stupid after the fact but at the time it was a lark.

Brilliant words by Branch. Still...it seems like the 2013-16 Sox were the team counting on luck...Sale and Quintana and if we can just make the playoffs we could make a run. The 2021 team has been built methodically and the off season seemed to be a part of the plan. I like where the team is at and you know who else is counting on a little luck? The Dodgers...for ten years they've had one of the highest payrolls, one of the best teams in baseball and one of the best farm clubs...last 8 years averaging 98 wins, went to the playoffs 8 times and won one world series. You are right that we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves...but I also think it's fun to dream a bit. Dynasties rarely happen but it's every fan's dream. That's why I pooh pooh adding Musgrove or Teheran or Brantley or Cruz...the team as constructed should make the playoffs and none of those guys is going to make them a can't lose team...but a breakthrough by Cease...and Vaughn...and Madrigal...and Kopeck...could boost us from good team to legendary. When legendary is still a possible outcome I think you try to play that hand to see if it can happen.

To stupid to argue with.

I find you to be one of the reasoned voices on here...so I guess I'm surprised at your seeming anger at the off season. Lynn was the best pitcher that changed hands in the AL this offseason...Hendricks is a great upgrade...Tony LaRussa is almost certainly going to be better than Ricky. Eaton is a pro. Cespedes and Vera seem like exciting young additions. Vaughn instead of EE...Katz instead of Coop. And we are keeping a tight budget to go buy someone at the trade deadline...like I mentioned a second ago...how about Chris Sale??

Yes that's why this year will be so interesting. Keuchel and Lynn I think of more as the David Wells/Mark Buehrle sort...bulldogs that will throw lots of innings and get lots of wins because they keep you in games....which is great for regular season. But playoffs you need guys like Gio that can throw a 7 inning 2 hitter....guys with other worldy stuff. Cease/Kopech and Crochett can all be that sort but so early to tell. So making a big add during the season...what do you think about Chris Sale...supposed to be back mid-year. Boston will want salary relief. We have money. Could he be our Grienke?

I guess I'm not saying how did their careers end up...because we know about the 2000 and 1995 staffs....but what was thought of them at the time. If you look at Wells stats at the time he came up he wasn't nearly as good as Stiever's stats. I remember being excited about him...but no where near the Kopech/Crochet/Cease excitement. Garland had a nice career...but in 1998 we got him from the Cubs for 31 year old Matt Karcher who really wasn't very good. At 19 he had an OK time at A+ but not dominating stuff...and then at 20 in 2000 he was in our rotation. I don't think a person here would trade 19 year old Jared Kelly for 19 year old Jon Garland (again assuming we didn't know future performance). I think the cautionary tale is that 1994 staff with a 28 year old McDowell, and very young Fernandez, Alvarez, Bere with Ruffcorn and Baldwin in the minors and it looked like 4 or 5 aces...sort of like now. Then the next year McDowell signs with the Yankees (Gio), Bere after going 12-2 blew out his arm, Ruffcorn and Baldwin never developed and that dream team never happened...though that 1994 team that we lost the WS because of stupid strike....was the best I ever followed...until now.

Who here doesn't think this could be our year? You aren't suggesting we aren't trying to win this year are you? In the playoffs you need three great starters, a dynamic bullpen, a strong defense and a strong offense. Our weakness seems to be fourth and fifth starter...which is more likely to make getting to the playoffs harder...but honestly...slug one and slug two giving up 5 runs a game are going to win a lot of games with this offense. I'm not sure I like anyone better than White Sox if the playoffs started tomorrow.

I lived through that ERA but no where near this level of power arms...I dont think we knew who Buehrle was until he came up and was great...in 2000 he was just a lefty control pitcher. Jon Rauch in 2000 was Kopech exciting...but only that one year. Kip Wells but maybe Stiever exciting? Great A pitcher...but age and stats all favor Stiever. You didnt mention Garland who was 20 in 2000 and seemed exciting. The other guys you mention I recall but not to the same level. I think if you were drafting 2000 Sox pitchers and 2021 Rauch top five...maybe third. Wells maybe 7th? Could be recency bias...and obviously in retrospect you have Buehrle and Garland in top five. But I have to say from a potential point 2021 by a mile. A better comparison is 1995....Alex Fernandez, Wilson Alvarez , Jason Bere, Mike Sirotka, Scott Ruffcorn, James Baldwin...I remember being really excited about Baldwin and Ruffcorn. But not much after them.

Hate to speak for others but...the core of the dozen best players are 25 or younger. Peaks years would be when they are 26-27-28. So we will see exciting up and comers this year and in a year or two we will see them at their full power.

I don't CARE about Teheran...I am SO excited about this team. In all my following of the White Sox I can't remember so many exciting pitchers under 26...Gio, Cease, Kopech, Crochet, Kelly, Stiever, Thompson, Dahlquist...all on the roster or in our top ten prospect list. I just don't want the White Sox even considering some 30 year old cast off...irrespective of his league average skills...even if he's free....I don't want them to look at Leake or Hamels. This is not the time...this is not the team...back when the Sox were trying to squeeze a contender out of the Sale/Quintana/Eaton/Abreu group and they had all sorts of garbage on their staff, bullpen and lineup...sure...bring in Teheran and dream. But this team has way to much talent to be grasping at straws...and if the wheels do fall of the cart with the rotation...I'm pretty sure you can find a Teheran equivalent by trading a fringe prospect to a non-contender.