michelangelosmonkey

In isolation it looks good...but if he can't put it together in meaningful ways in a 6 inning pitching performance what does that matter? He was drafted by the Blue Jays and they traded him, Houston had him and they traded him (and Houston is not a dumb team). He's 28 now...he peaked at #8 best prospect for Astros six years ago...and we want to trade Stiever our #6 prospect, who's 23, ++ for him? Honestly why is Quintana not just about as good and costs nothing (For the XFIP guys that had Musgrove as the 35th best pitcher in baseball over the last three years...Quintana was right behind him and he's basically free).

I think you are misrepresenting the argument. The argument is Lopez is a failed prospect who in the last three years has a higher peak (game score or WAR) than Musgrove and you don't have to trade an asset for Lopez...let alone multiple. Also the worst pitcher in baseball in 2018 worked with Katz and became a top 10 pitcher in baseball and we wonder if Katz can do the same for the potential of Lopez. I for one think Musgrove is overvalued...if you look at his season last year his last two starts in late September were great...but other than that he had a 6 ERA. In his only good year he had a fantastic April 2019 but after that had a 5.3 ERA...in the no-DH NL. Musgrove is 28 and if you see some kind of star in here I'm not sure what you are looking at. As for overvaluing Stiever...seems like the board is undervaluing him. People are ready to trade him for anything because of a lower than expected velocity in 6 innings in his first major league experience (where Cooper was probably telling him to sacrifice velocity for accuracy). He was their #6 prospect a year ago when Dane Dunning was #5, is 2 years younger than DD, and is a better athlete with better pure stuff than DD and the board lost their minds over trading DD for a top 10 pitcher in baseball. If, as you suggest we trade Stiever and two other top 10 prospects for Musgrove, I fear for our future.

Yes I think you and I are the only ones that haven't completely given up on him...though there is a fine line between optimist and idiot. Lopez will be 27 this year and the last two years have been mostly ugly. But as I wrote earlier...he's had more very well pitched games than Musgrove over the last three years (by game score). Somewhere inside him is a very good pitcher. You can also see how Lopez's pitching strategy has been taken over by Cooper...from near 70% fastball/curveball in his best year of 2018 to 50% slider/changeup last year. When he came to the White Sox a big part of his arsenal was the power curveball that he never threw last year. It's not impossible that Katz's studies him and can get him back on track...and we don't have to trade assets to get him.

Again...last two games in late September he was VERY good...before that he had an ERA of 6. In 2019 he was 1 WAR better than Reylo and in 2018 he was 2 WAR worse. In his best year ever he was 98th in the majors in pitching WAR...worse than Gio Gonzalez...his best year ever was worse than Gio age 33. Honestly Quintana is lefty, has a better track record, better peak and costs you nothing. Why are we even talking about this guy?

I'm guilty of thinking that Joe Musgrove isn't very good and neither is Lopez so why trade assets for the Pirates failed pitcher when we have one of our own.

But you did say "Musgrove is clearly vastly superior..." to Lopez. Lopez we can all agree was horrid last year...but it was a weird Covid shortened season...he's younger than Musgrove and three years ago was clearly vastly superior. Even in 2019, by far Musgrove's best year...he had 5 game scores over 70 and topped out at 78. Lopez in 2019 had 6 game scores over 70 and topped out at 89. If you want to compare 2018-19-20 Musgrove had 9 game scores over 70 with a peak of 80... Lopez had 14 with several in the upper 80's. Peak Lopez is better than peak Musgrove so it would seem a smart pitching coach can figure out how to get more peak. In fact Musgrove's top two pitched games ever were late September Covid year. Before his last two late September starts he had an ERA nearly 6. If the idea is to take a chance on unleashing the potential in one of the two...how about we do it on the one we already have that won't cost us Stiever and Bush.

Look at LeMahieu 3 years with Colorado...from 15-17. He put up 10.3 WAR while hitting just 8 homer runs per year...he started hitting more home runs after that but he certainly had a 6 year stretch averaging 3 WAR. Placido Polanco averaged 3 WAR for 14 years and only once hit more than 15 home runs. Howie Kendrick hit a few more homers but was a worse fielder and had a six year stretch of 4 WAR. Nellie Fox 10 year stretch of 5 WAR a year. Rod Carew is the ceiling for little-power, slick fielding, fast 2B and he had 7 WAR a year for 7 years. Half the board wants to trade away Madrigal for a bucket of balls and replace him with a 30 year old 1 WAR 2b with the idea that Madrigal is just a guy...based on a couple of fielding/baserunning errors as a 23 year old rookie by the same people that ignore his .380 OBP as a rookie and the mounds of scouts saying he will be a + fielder and + baserunner. I wouldn't even trade him straight up for Snell...Snell is 28, had one amazing season but his other 4 he's average 1 WAR. It's ok to not see Madrigal as a superstar. NO one thought Placido Polanco was a superstar...he only made two All Star games...yet 42 WAR in 14 years is exactly the kind of career I expect Madrigal to have. And in a team with a galaxy of stars...a guy that we never talk about but never strikes out, plays GG caliber 2b and gets on base with good speed. Is REALLY valuable.

The two pitchers have pitched a combined 10 years. Only one year were either of them a "stud" and that was Lopez in 2018...a year you choose to ignore. To call Lopez trash and Musgrove gold just seems confused. They both have had a lot of chances and i wouldnt trade much for either...but i also wouldnt be shocked if either turned it around for a nice three year run. Maybe Lopez for Musgrove

Interesting that you use 2019 as cutoff and not 2018 when Lopez put up a 3.4 War which is nearly double the best year of Musgrove. Lopez has great stuff too. Both are somewhat failed prospects...why trade for theirs?

We have SO many good young pitchers that could be as good or better than Musgrove...we have a 23 year old 2B that just hit .340 and could give us 6 years of 3 WAR per year value at low salary. Why would we want to do this? Is Musgrove better than Lopez? Each with 5 years. Lopez is younger, Musgrove has 1 more WAR but Lopez a higher peak. Lopez costs nothing and could break through with new pitching coach.

i think he either is a major leaguer this year or never will be. He will be 26 by opening day. I also think he probably caught the equivalent of 1/2 a AAA season this year...they had him calling games, working with pitchers, figuring out their stuff...he was just doing it behind the scenes. They also wouldn't be requiring him to be full time starter...just catch 50 games. He's caught games in the majors before and wasn't terrible. If he is sent to AAA that means they don't believe in him and never will. I think they believe in him.

I would be shocked if they do this. I really believe they have a Collins plan...I think all of this year they had him catching the top prospects in the alternate training sight teaching him how to be a catcher. ..coaching him every day. They didn't need him in 2020 with McCann and Grandal so they taught him. I've been a big supporter of Collins and I think a guy with an elite batters eye and elite power and a lefty bat has enormous value as a back up catcher/dh/1B guy. Bringing on some old free agent catcher seems more 2018 White Sox than 2021 White Sox.

Gotta say I would be lining up for tickets for the Crochet-Kopech days. Imagine 3 innings of 100 mile heat from the left followed by 3 inning of 100 mile heat from the right.

It's nice to get a brief break from "JR is cheap" "TLR is a drunk" "RH is the worst GM ever" over and over in every thread to listen to this little oasis of sanity. Wow is this exciting. The idea of Katz working with Cease, Lopez, Kopeck and Crochett...be still my heart. There's also a nice article in Bleacher Report about the White Sox home grown relief staff. So very much positive in this organization. So much to be excited about.

I don't know...they seem like basically the same player. Here is WAR for the five years before the free agency for each (most recent year first). Upton and Heyward were both significantly younger and neither of them were told what the next pitch was going to be. I'm not saying that Springer will be bad...I'm just challenging your assumption that Springer will certainly be good. Upton and Heyward went on to provide their new teams 1 WAR per year for $20 mill a year. You could even argue that the Heyward and Quintana moves were what turned the Cubs Dynasty into the Cubs abject failure. Upton Heyward Springer Age 28 26 31 4.2 6.9 2.2 3.1 5.5 6.4 2.8 3.6 2.7 2.4 5.5 5 5.5 2 5.1 Total 46 49.5 52.4

You're kidding right? If you set the number for a mega deal at $100,000,000 and you just look the least four years...Eric Hosmer, Cespedes, Chris Davis, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Jordan Zimmerman... would all fall into the "ohmigod what have we done" category...that's about half of the mega contracts. If you are confident that Springer isn't Justin Upton...who put up a 5.5 WAR the year before he left and about 4 WAR combined the next four years Or Jason Heyward who put up an average of 5.5 WAR for the four years before the big contract and about 1.5 WAR after the contract. Big contract free agents are still a crap shoot.

Why? Isn't it possible that management is about to sign Colas...and think Adolfo or Lugo with a real minor league season give us a bright future in RF without spending $125 million for a 31 year old who had his best hitting season when he knew what pitches were coming? What if we trade for Yelich? What if we sign Bauer? I just don't get the Sox hatred...the off season isn't done. They have proven that they will be a top five spending team if they are real good. Might it not be a better time to go shopping at the trade deadline where we see how our minor league guys develop...and see how Eaton performs? We don't have to race in and throw our money at the first pretty face we see.

The good news is that last two times (mid 90's and mid-00's) when the White Sox had great teams JR spent for top five payrolls. Top five payroll now means $175 million...and we are only at $100 mill with the raises...so there is a TON of upside potential for our payroll. I think something big is going to happen.

Springer is 31. His OPS was down nearly 100 points last year and before that he was told in advance what pitches were coming...and he'll probably cost $100 mill more than Eaton. Everyone carries risk.

Do you mean Springer?

1) Altuve was a NEGATIVE WAR last year...I would be so mad if we traded Danny Mendick for Altuve because clearly Mendick is better based on a couple of hundred at bats in a pandemic year with no fans. It's ridiculous to look at Eaton's 3500 career at bats prior to COVID and we should judge him on his 176 COVID at bats...for the same reason I wouldn't trade a bucket of balls for Christian Yelich. 2) EAton's last five non-COVID years....he had three years of 95% of games played and two injured years. Even last year he played in 70% of the games. Is your fear that his broken pinkie from last year is going to haunt him? 3) Not sure this point as they still have Adam Engel and I suspect he will play a lot. 4) JR is demonstrably not a cheap ass (top five payroll in the mid-90's when they were good and top five in the mid-00's when they were good), TLR is a hall of fame manager. AE hasn't failed...the last time we saw him in the non-COVID world he hit nearly 1.000 OPS in helping his team win the World Series. Remind me again why you are a White Sox fan?

Wow that was fun to watch. Can you imagine how crazy our lineup is going to be next year? The first six...TA, Eloy, Robert, Abreu, Grandal and Moncada...each capable of hitting 30+ home runs...and then the period where the pitcher gets to rest...the 7-8-9 spots with Vaughan with his elite batters eye, Eaton with his career .360 OBP and Madrigal who never strikes out and hit .340 as a rookie. I think Eaton is going to be a fun addition to the team.

Nobody outside of JR's inner circle really knows...we are just speculating. But we do know that they TOLD us the money would be spent. And we do know for sure that the team had two really great runs in the last thirty years. That team in the mid 90's and the team in the mid 00's. Each time, for about a five year period when the White Sox were really good, the White Sox payroll was top five in baseball. In the 90's it was $55 mill. In the 00's it was $120's. Each time JR paid. It's inarguable that after those great teams began falling apart JR cut the payroll...we dropped to 26th in 2000 at only $31 mill when the team was transitioning. I'm sure prenatal Soxtalk was saying that "JR is cheap...he will never spend again....to get to a top five payroll he'd have to spend $120 mill and its just never going to happen" and yet six years later the team was good and we were again in top 5. So outside of the counter evidence...that JR hasn't spent during the rebuild (Something they basically told us) I feel good about them spending.

From 2006 to 2011 White Sox were in top five payrolls 4 times. What evidence is there they wont do it again? Maybe they just dont see Springer and Bauer as special enough

Why is it not possible that the White Sox have $150 million to spend on pitching and they want to spend it on extending Lynn for 22-23 and then Gio 24-27? I'm not sure that isn't better than Bauer...and I'm a bit cautious about the Cleveland pitching fairy dust...do they send that along with the signing? You also suggest that it's possible that Kopech, Crochet, Cease, Kelly, Thompson, Dahlquist, Lopez, Stiever, Lambert, Flores, Pinklington could all flame out...yet Dunning is a sure thing?? I'm not sure if you listed those pitchers in the terms of likely WAR over the next 6 years that Dunning would be in top five. We had to give SOMETHING for a top ten pitcher signed to a team friendly contract. Dunning seems about fair.