michelangelosmonkey

And the Sox have gone to the playoffs 6 times, won the equivalent of 90 games 8 times and won a WS in JR's 32 year reign...we are above .500 in that time...we aren't the Yankees but not a laughingstock. In fairness the rebuild has been REALLY hard. 7 years of losing an average of 92 games...the spirits flag...but the future is so bright.

Maybe it's just me but I'm tired of bringing in the old broken down free agents from other teams...I was strongly against bringing in EE last year for the same reason...it's time to trust the 25 year olds. Last year was the year Collins should have spent catching every day in Charlotte but COVID happened....so he spent every day catching in the alternate site with Crochett, Kelly, Dahlquist and Thompson. Young wild explosive arms...with our best catching coaches with him trying to teach him...I don't know what happened but I feel great confidence that he caught the equivalent of 60 games. If he hasn't learned by now they should get rid of him...but I just feel from their actions that they are confident about him. And if he CAN catch? This is one of those things that catapults us from that very good team into the super team...adding a lefty bat at catcher with high on base skills and + power. I think he catches 60 games this year and DH's/1B 70 more and then catches 100 games a year going forward.

Oh I see what you did there...from 1920-1982 the White Sox went to the playoffs once and you can make the optimists look stupid for supporting a team that hasn't made the playoffs very often going back to 1906...hahaha. It hasn't been a legendary franchise...but it's our team so I'm not sure WTF is your point outside of slamming some of the positive people?? White Sox had a playoff team last year and have added two of the top Cy Young candidates from 2020, a solid right fielder, a hall of fame manager, a hot shot pitching coach and will be adding three of top fifty prospects in all baseball to their core of good young players...and you and your ilk want to b**** non stop because we didn't go after some other teams garbage. Honestly give me the water carriers over your cabal of urine carriers.

I think that is entirely fair...life is filled with a series of disappointments...I think the greatest team I followed was that 1994 team that ended with the strike. Still I feel it's different...I feel like we could have the makings of a super team...the A's or Reds of the 70's. And yes it's fair to prick that balloon...but half the fun of winning is the expectations...and the joy of having national media guys remember that there are actually two teams in Chicago. Why couldn't Vaughn come up and hit like Frank Thomas as a rookie? Why couldn't your fifth starter be Kopech for three and Crochett for three? Let's see if all these 25 and younger players can really jell into a great team. I don't want to start the panic trading or panic buying yet. As for the Farm System...I'm never that excited about a system that could produce a dozen major leaguers if they are a dozen solid average players. One Frank Thomas is worth a dozen Tyler Flowers or Yolmer Sanchezs. They are obviously worth something but if your system produces one star your can go pick up the Sanchez's and Flowers, Today, with all the young talent we've brought up the last few years we still have as our top five Kopech, Vaughn, Crochett, Madrigal and Kelly. Each could realistically be a special player. Top four have even looked special against major leaguers. OK...maybe last years list is better but this is very exciting.

Thanks for posting this...and post more often. It is the oddest thing that so many of the regular posters seem to hate the team. I have followed the team like a religion since the early 70's and this is not only the best young team I've followed they might have the best farm team too...and a hall of fame manager, and are managing the budget to try to keep the window open for the longest time possible...and yet somehow every positive is a hidden negative and every negative is a fatal flaw. Just know that there are a lot of us silently watching. If we can't enjoy this team now we can never enjoy anything.

Last White Sox player that came up as a can't miss hitter and a similar hit profile to Vaughn's at a similar age, at a similar position put up a wRC+ of .178 in his rookie year...but he did get better.

I think they have a long term plan for Collins. I feel like their 2019 plan was pushed back because they didnt expect McCann to be the all star catcher he was (for half the season)...but I think 2020 was daily intensive training on Collins being a catcher...they understand he is extremely valuable if he can actually be an average catcher defensively because they think he can be a top ten hitting catcher. Of course the other possibilty is they think he's horrible and they are hiding that...but then why not trade after his great AAA year in 2019? Collins might be most interesting guy to watch in 2021.

Nicely stated.

The weirdness of FIP is that the theory goes that there are three reasons why ERA and FIP are different...sequencing, defense and luck. But sequencing and defense should be the same for all pitchers in an organization (roughly, over a large sample size like a season). So to say Musgrove over his career has a FIP half a run lower than his ERA...but the other pitchers on his team had no difference in their FIP and ERA over the same time...must mean either that Musgrove is terribly unlucky...and we should value him more highly than conventional (ERA) stats or maybe there is something he does that makes his FIP good but his ERA bad. It doesn't really explain that...and that would seem to be important.

Sorry....you're right Flash. Still...total DH hitting last year was .588 OPS and pinch hitters were .627. So just about any warm body should be better than that.

Where do you think the actual expectation is (outside of some people joking like they did with "Cooper will fix him"). I feel like he is tasked with turning Cease-Kopech and Crochett into good major league pitchers. Honestly that's starting with some pretty attractive marble he has to sculpt. I think if Reylo and Rodon fail...no one will blame Katz. But I also look at the Houston and Cleveland pitching clinics and there seems to be something to the science of maximizing a pitchers outcomes.

You said we had a black hole at DH...Vaughan and Collins and throw Yermin in there as well...had a combined 18 at bats last year...so they should be considered additions...and I would bet any one of them will hit better than .650 OPS this year.

You see Vaughn/Collins as no improvement over EE's .627 OPS? You think the Adam's won't hit better than Mazara's .589 OPS? I do agree that the team benefitted from the AL Central schedule last year so they might be quite a bit better and end up with 95 wins.

FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant That's the formula. If it actually measured the influence of defense it should show, for instance, every Pirates pitcher with a much lower FIP than ERA like Musgroves (actually without Musgrove 2020 Pirates FIP = ERA). It punishes people that give up home runs and walks and don't strike out many. If you give up a ton of singles, doubles and triples, allow 9 runs to score but walk none and strike out 7...you are a GREAT FIP pitcher and ERA hates you. If you walk four, strike out four and give up two runs on solo home runs in 9 innings ERA loves you and FIP hates you. This is not science and FIP > ERA. The ERA stuff actually happens...the guy that actually gave up 2 runs and the guy who actually gave up 9...which is my argument. The FIP argument is the low walk high strikeout guy will eventually become a great pitcher and the High FIP low ERA guy will eventually have to pay the piper. I went back ten years and twelve years and found a few guys with a FIP 1 run lower than his ERA and really saw no breakthroughs. Maybe there is evidence. It is true that over time FIP generally is very close to ERA but to loudly say one is truth is just not so.

That's interesting...I remember Jim Spencer too and that was what I remembered too...that he was this amazing fielder. But he was NOT a good hitting 1B. Even using old timey stats...in 76 and 77 he averaged about 550 at bats, hit about .250 and averaged 16 home runs. We were just so broken as baseball fans in 1976 that we pretended that was good. STill the fielding thing is a bit strange...maybe we just were kids and heard the announcers say it over and over again that he was an amazing fielder. When you look at fielding stats he never made errors....which is good...and had a lot of put outs...but that could be because their rotation was an extreme ground ball rotation. Remember...we were all told that Derek Jeter was a GREAT fielder until the saber heads proved otherwise. Don't give up...the new stats are worth learning.

No you arent one of the negative douches and I largely agree with you...Im just saying we can't completely ignore the old stats. TA was REALLY lucky in 2019 and better in 2020. Maybe part of Ceases ERA success was he has a skill of escaping jams. Lopez it seems was the opposite...he breezed along and then had adversity and fell apart. I really think Cease and Kopech at 4 and 5 for this team is OK.

I'm not moving any goalposts. You stated how many competitive teams are relying on starters with a 6.5 and 7 5 FIP. I merely said they arent...they are relying on Cease and Kopech who have TOR stuff...and FIP is a measuure of what should have happened but when measuring what actually happened, ERA, Cease was at 4.0 and league average was 4.4...and he was only 24 year old. So to say he was horrible just wasnt true.

Ah the science of lucky. If you actually watched his starts he has electric stuff but control issues. It takes many dynamic pitchers years to get control...most teams dont give up on them and give the starts instead to some old declining gas can

No...I'm using ERA to suggest he's not as horrible as you say he is. Walking the bases loaded but getting out of it is either a skill or luck...but its not like Cease was throwing 92 and kept getting lucky. Some guys are brilliant for four innings then they walk a guy and have an error and then give up a three run homer. FIP loves those guys and hates the first. Discarding ERA is as bad as discarding FIP. Cease was frustrating last year but until late September teams weren't scoring off of him. That seems more of a data point than throwing out terms like horendous and ugly.

I'm not sure I understand....what are the "actual facts" about Cease...Cease is 25 (now) with really good stuff...in the actual games last year he gave up 4 runs a game (ERA) which will win him a lot of games with this team.

Last year on Sept 19th Cease was 24 was 5-2 with a 3.20 ERA . Yes FIP says he was was worse...ERA says what actually happened FIP says what should have happened. At the end of the year Cease had the equivalent of 2.7 WAR (again his fwar was much worse but thats because they use FIP). But I gotta say every contending team in baseball would be happy to use Cease as their #4 starter after their three CY Young contenders pitch. As for Kopech...everyone says he looks great. He has overpowering stuff. And if he has 27 starts where he goes 3 innings and Crochet follows him up with 3 innings...each of them get 81 innings for the year which still saves some innings for post season...and again...our fifth starter...3 innings at 100 from the right, 3 inning at 100 from the left...and then Bummer to make them cry. Why do you want ANYONE instead of that.

Sensible post. No teams have starting pitching depth beyond their top five. It is just the chorus of negative voices that permeate every thread on Sox Talk. Gio, Lynn and Dallas were all in the CY Young voting last year and Cease and Kopech have TOR stuff. Which of those five are we sitting to bring in some old gas can? And the idea that "well what happens if someone gets hurt then we have to start Stiever"...brought to you by the same people that are putting Dunning our 5th best prospect in the Hall of Fame while Stiever our 6th best is garbage? To start the season there are six off days in the first six weeks...and likely several rain outs or snow outs. If we have to give Lopez two or three starts...or try a couple of bullpen days (I suspect Katz/TLR are more open to this concept than Renteria/Cooper) that is hardly a disaster. You know who else relied on a couple of 23 year old starting pitchers...the Dodgers last year. The reality is we are not "all in". Last years excitement and positive developments with the young guys has moved us from playoff consideration into championship consideration. But we are still reliant on LOTS of very young guys...I don't think any one of us think 2021 is going to be the teams peak. The Padres sort of had to push all their chips in because they are spending $75 million each year for Machado, Myers and Hosmer and Machado is turning 29 this year while the other two are in their 30's. We right now have one of the most exciting lineups, defenses, starting pitching and bullpens around...it looks like most of the players should be getter better (approaching their prime as opposed to leaving it) and we have kept our budget sound...I don't think we have a single bad contract. Why do we need to trade assets now? Why do we need to pick things off the heap now. I am FINE with letting Robert, Jiminez, Madrigal, Vaughn, Moncada, TA and Collins grow together. I'm fine with letting all our exciting minor league pitchers get some non-COVID pitching time. I am fine with waiting until the all star break to see what weaknesses we have, what strengths we have in the minors and then trade or buy some other teams burdensome contract (Yelich in RF?) or extend Lynn and Gio. We have added four really good parts to a team that was very good last year. This is spring and we should be rejoicing not complaining about not getting some Pittsburgh pitcher that was never any good, or giving a bunch of starts to someone like Quintana, or spending money on some 30+ year old back up catcher. Pitchers and catchers can't get here soon enough.

Just so I'm clear...Lynn will regress, Dallas will regress...but Wainwright and Quintana are fine? Kopech 80 innings/Crochett 80 innings...Kopech 3 at a time followed by Crochett as they stretch out there arms...160 innings...or 160 innings of Wainwright?

I'm not sure what you mean...they landed Lance Lynn who is by almost any measure a top ten pitcher in baseball. Their starting rotation is Gio, Dallas, Lynn (5-6-7 in Cy Young voting), Cease and Kopek/Crochett...with Lopez reclamation if anyone is hurt. Why is that bad? Which one of those guys do you want to take away starts from to give it to Quintana? Why would Quintana or Wainwright want to sign here with Kopech waiting in the wings?

The difference between old time stats and WAR is that WAR tries to take into account fielding and baserunning in a single metric. The reason Fangraphs and Baseball reference have different WARS is that fwar uses Ultimate Zone ratings for their defense and Ultimate base running and weighted stolen bases for their baserunning and rWar uses Total zone ratings for fielding and linear based system for baserunning. The big difference in WAR is with pitchers as FG uses FIP (fielding independent pitching) instead of ERA which doesn't use actual runs scored but uses a predicted runs scored based on the number of walks/hits/homers given up. For MOST pitchers, over a few years FIP is very close to ERA. For some pitchers its a big difference...which is why some heated arguments on Soxtalk about it. Sort of like the batting average balls in play argument...this guy was not as good as he actually was because he was lucky (or unlucky)...but maybe that guy has a skill set that leads to more Babip...and round and round we go. While the fielding and baserunning stats are subjective it tries to be much more objective than the old stats like fielding percentage used to be. 20 years ago old-timey baseball guys thought Derek Jeter was a GREAT fielder...because he played in NY, made some flashy plays occasionally and didn't make any errors. When they started looking at it turns out he was a terrible fielder...-1 defense War per season. Zone ratings calculate how many balls an average player SHOULD get to...it's why Robert is so good...he catches way more balls than the robots think that he should...Jeter was the opposite. The problem with a lot of stats is people use them with too much certainty...the idea is that FIP will give us a better idea of Cease's future than ERA (Cease's FIP is terrible his ERA is pretty good). The future is uncertain...something like FIP should allow us to pick out a hidden gem (as I was arguing in the Musgrove thread) and I really couldn't find much evidence that it did. I think one of the greatest things I ever read about stats was from Moses (Bill James). He said if you sat in the stands every day and watched a baseball team you couldn't tell the difference between a .300 hitter (all star) and a .250 hitter (journeyman) because it amounted to a single hit a week. (500 at bats, 150 hits vs 125 hits over 25 weeks). Because baseball is a game of lots of repetitions a small difference per week can make a big difference over a lot time. Before I get trashed by the throngs...this is just my interpretation of the scientists behind the new stats and you can do a google search on any term and it will explain in minute details by the experts.