almagest

Seems like someone reports 25 lbs lighter to camp every year. Didn't Uribe already do this like 5 times?

QUOTE(Buehrle>Wood @ Feb 16, 2008 -> 12:09 AM) I hear Metaknight, even though he has by far the best comboing ability, has terrible smashes so I don't know how much you'd see of him on the competitive scene. That said, the focus of the game certainly has less emphasis on actual smashing in comparison to Melee. I've heard Fox is still maybe the best, and that Diddy of all characters might be his biggest competetion for top tier(Toon Link too). Agreed on the stages all look so awesome. I'm a Marth-main, so it's great to see that he looks even better than he was in Melee. His Final Smash almost wants me to leave items on. It's so much harder to kill someone via a smash in this game, and so much easier to recover, so I'd rather have the high damage ability of Metaknight. Get someone over 150+ damage and you'll kill them with most any smash or strong hit anyway. Like I said, Fox has been seriously nerfed, from what I've seen/heard. Could be wrong though. I'll know for sure once it's out here. Marth is my favorite character in the game. Pit is rising pretty quickly, though. Not sure how tournament-worthy this game is, at least compared to Melee. Initially seems it's not.

I use the following: Federal - http://www.freetaxusa.com/ State - http://tax.illinois.gov/

I'd like Gap jeans if they didn't fall apart in a few months. I like Levi's because they last forever, and I have a pair of Guess jeans that held up well. I'd like to buy the better brands, but I just can't justify spending more than ~$50 for a pair of pants. I should probably start checking Marshalls again.

Finally bought a car last week. Did a hell of a lot of research. Ended up getting a blue '08 Ford Focus SE coupe. I like small cars, and for the Focus restyle caught my attention. Glad I got it. Got it for invoice price + 2400 in rebates + free iphone. Price was like 13,800 on a ~17,000 car. McCarthy Ford on 114th and Pulaski seems to be a pretty solid dealer. Thanks for the advice everyone!

QUOTE(Reddy @ Feb 9, 2008 -> 09:07 AM) friend of mine got a japanese mod for his wii and the japanese version of the game so i got to play it thursday night. the controls take a little bit to get used to - they're generally the same as the old game but just feel a bit different. not bad though. I can say that even though they're still clones, Fox & Falco and Ganondorf & C. Falcon do actually handle and play differently so it's not terrible. Sonic is fast as hell. Like, so fast i ran myself off the stage a couple times getting used to it. But he's fun to play. The stages are fantastic and the backgrounds are insane. Visually the game is stunning. Metaknight, Game and Watch, Wind Waker Link, and Marth are top tier. Fox and Falco were nerfed pretty badly. No more wavedash or L-Cancel or down-cancel. Aerial combat seems to have been the main focus. Stages are insane. Can't wait until it comes out here. (BTW, I used to play Melee competitively)

PS3 and some games. Possibly a Wii if I have enough left over. Or, I'll be smart and put it away for a down payment on a place. ...Nah. QUOTE(Iwritecode @ Feb 11, 2008 -> 03:32 PM) I don't even make 50% of that... Not sure if you spoke with RockRaines about this yet, but you are SEVERELY underpaid. Software Engineers coming out of college are making close to 60k/year at this point. I'd highly suggest looking in Chicago, Naperville, and/or Schaumburg. What's your area of expertise?

I think another thing people are forgetting is that Noah Lowry is worth more than Joe Crede at this point. He's a 26 year old left hander who's put up pretty decent stats and only has ~3 years ML service time. Joe Crede is a 29 year old 3rd basemen who has one and a half seasons of above league-average offensive production, plays good defense, is in the last year of his contract, and has injury concerns. If we can somehow spin Crede for Lowry there's absolutely no reason we shouldn't do it, even if all we end up doing is trading Lowry elsewhere.

QUOTE(lvjeremylv @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 03:20 PM) Well now you're splitting hairs. That's like saying "the stat wasn't that Barry Bonds contributed only 15 runs over the course of the season, it's that his power numbers did". You can't separate a player from his attributes. They're a package deal, good and bad. Sure you can. All this says is, of the X runs that Ricky generated in this season, 5 can be attributed to his stealing prowess. Stats are meant to be broken down situationally -- this isn't much different than righty/lefty splits, or an average with RISP, for example. QUOTE(YASNY @ Feb 5, 2008 -> 03:24 PM) Rickey Henderson, in his prime, was a DEVASTATING offensive player. Sometimes I wonder if some of these staticians ever actually watch the game. Of course they did. The point is that stealing didn't contribute as much to Ricky's game as some people seem to think. He was more so an on-base and slugging machine.

I think Pods was useful, but I don't think he was single-handedly responsible for 6 or 7 wins in the first half of '05. I think that's way too much credit to him, and not enough to our pitching staff, or even the rest of the offense.

QUOTE(Jenks Heat @ Jan 30, 2008 -> 11:37 AM) In 2006 Brian Anderson saved at least one game that really mattered against the Indians with this glove. If he is in center and Swisher in left we will be a good team. If Owens or Swisher are in center we will be average. The affect on pitching as a result of bad defense is never really discussed. Aaron Rowand and Scott Podsednik cost Bobby Jenks a save in the World Series thus allowing a walk-off that never should happened. Now you're going in the exact opposite direction, and evaluating defense as more important than offense. Swisher would have to be absolutely terrible defensively in CF to make up for the offensive difference between him and Anderson, unless Anderson miraculously turns it all around.

QUOTE(Kalapse @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 11:27 PM) Craig Counsell was the primary leadoff hitter that year. He posted a line of .275/.359/.362/.721 6 SB/8 CS. So he was terrible on the basepaths and didn't slug worth a s*** but he did post a .359 OBP. So each leadoff hitter from a World Series team in the past 7 years had an OBP of >=.350, while the stolen base amount and ratio of success varied wildly. It certainly seems that OBP is more important to a team's success than the threat of a stolen base. QUOTE(YASNY @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 11:28 PM) While you may have a point, how much have we seen of Swisher in CF? Not much, but stats-wise he seems to be at least average, possibly better than average. I certainly don't think he'll be bad enough to offset his offensive abilities over everything else we have... at least, I hope not.

QUOTE(YASNY @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 11:02 PM) Why is a double taken away defensively worth less than a double produced offensively? I've never quite understood this logic. It's not. But the difference in offense from Anderson to Swisher is much larger than the difference defensively from Anderson to Swisher, based on what we have seen from both players to this point.

QUOTE(YASNY @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 10:41 PM) You guys can throw all the stats around that you want to. But, I agree with ptatc that Pods had a huge impact on the Sox success in the first half of '05. Pods took a lot of pitches, and not just in his first at bat but in just about all of them. He was a force on the bathpaths, and he did get into the pitchers' heads. The Sox built a big lead that cushioned the second half problems the team had and Pods first half was a very important part of that. Stats are fine, but I know what I saw with my own eyes. Without Pods first half, we don't even make the playoffs. Podsednik averaged 3.89 pitches per plate appearance in 2005. That didn't crack the top 25 in baseball that year -- number 25 was Todd Helton, at 4.03, 0.14 points higher than Podsednik. Also, if you look at the list, you'll find some very decidedly not-good baseball players on the list, who were on some very decidedly not-good teams, so I'm not sure how important or relevant this stat is, overall. Also, I don't understand the unwavering Pods devotion for 2005. Was he valuable? Yes. Did he make or break this team? No. The pitching was far, far, far more important. I think relying on Pods (and later, Erstad) for these phantom, intangible concepts of "grindiness" and "getting in pitchers' heads" caused us a lot of problems in '06 and '07, as well.

QUOTE(ptatc @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 09:24 PM) you still need a guy in the mold of crisp or owens at the top of the lineup. Say what you will about the "numbers and OBP" is all that matters but I'll bet if you look at the past WS winners most of them had that type of player at the top. Red Sox: Ellsbury Cards: Eckstein White Sox: Pods Red Sox Damon Marlins: Pierre Angles: Eckstein D-backs: Womack Ellsbury was with the Red Sox for all of 33 games in 2007, during which he put up a .903 OPS (.394 OBP). He's not just a speed guy. He was a non-factor in the ALDS, and hit .250 / .333 / .250 in the ALCS. He was good in the World Series, but the Red Sox destroyed the Rockies. Ellsbury performing well probably didn't have all that much to do with their WS victory. The 2006 Cardinals won all of 83 games, in the worst division in baseball. They happened to get hot at the right time. Eckstien had a .350 OBP, a robust .344 SLG, stole 7 bases, and was caught 6 times. How does he fit into this speedy/stealy mode, besides being awful at stealing bases like Pods is now, having no power like Pods and Owens, and not having a team at this time, like Pods? Pitching is the main reason why we won in 2005, not Pods. Take away our pitching and we probably would've had the same record we did this year. Pods had an OBP of .351 with us in 2005, .375 in the postseason. He stole 6 bases in the postseason, but was caught 3 times. He also slugged over .600 in the World Series. Damon had an OPS of .857 in 2004 (OBP of .380), with only 19 steals, and was caught stealing 8 times. How is this anything like Pods/Owens/Crisp? None of them have ever come close to this on the MLB level. Crisp was at .810 in 2005, and that's the closest. Juan Pierre had an OPS of .781 in 2003, the second-highest of his career (probably the highest, since the other time he was close to this was in Coors). He had a .361 OBP, meaning he was on base a fair amount. When did Pods or Owens put an OBP up this high for us? When did Coco Crisp put an OBP near this in his entire MLB career? Eckstien had an OBP of .363 in 2002, a .388 SLG, with 21 steals, 13 times caught stealing. This is better than his 2006 season, but is in-line with his career stats: no slugging ability, a decent/solid OBP, and a bad base stealer. Tony Womack was absolutely awful in 2001: .266 / .307 / .345. His stolen base numbers were good -- the only part of his season that was: 28SB, 7 CS. He also stunk in the NLCS and World Series. Did he even lead off most of the year for them? That team won mostly because they had two Hall of Fame caliber starters in their rotation, and because Luis Gonzales had an OPS of 1.117. Please tell me how Womack was as or more important than Johnson/Schilling/Gonzalez, or how the Diamondbacks wouldn't have won the World Series without him. If anything, the common thread between all the past World Series winning teams has been a leadoff hitter with an OBP over .350.

There's absolutely no reason to not let Quentin play LF or RF. We traded one of the few good offensive prospects in our barren minor league system for him. It'd be a waste to let him sit on the bench.

QUOTE(ptatc @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 04:00 PM) Thank You Bill James for the rhetoric about base stealing is only effective with a 75% success rate. I won't argue the numbers for base stealing. My point is that speed or even the threat of speed has a much greater effect on the game than the numbers can analyze. Look at the number of stressful pitches the starter threw or the number of pickoff attempts. All of these have a greater impact on the pitcher than just the OBP guy. Ok, so what are qualified as stressful pitches? And where's the evidence that shows that a high number of said stressful pitches leads to a higher ERA, WHIP, more pitches thrown, or rate of injury? I've never seen any. I'll agree that "statheads" tend to blindly throw stats around without considering any other factors, but you can't just say "this works this way" without any sort of evidence to back it up.

QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 01:38 PM) Your second graf conflicts with the first. Speed is important, and steal rate isn't necessarily a good indicator of that value. It only indicates the value of their ability to steal bases, which is not solely dependant on speed. Some players are fast on the paths but not great base-stealers. Rob Mackowiak was a great example of that - didn't steal much or all that successfully, but he was pretty darn quick on the paths. Mackowiak isn't fast, but is a good base runner. He gets good jumps, makes wise decisions, etc. Most good base runners aren't stolen base threats, per se. They also need to be fast.

QUOTE(ptatc @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 11:48 AM) OBP from the leadoff spot is obviously important because he will have on average more plate appearances than anyone else, but how much of a difference do you need to negate the effect of the speed is a real conundrum. It is also one that polarizes people, they either think it helps or don't. I for one believe it has a great impact on the game. Speed is only a significant threat if the base stealer has a success rate near or over 75%. Otherwise the player's speed has little effect. Personally, I feel speed has the greatest effect in being able to go from first to third or second to home on a single. Especially if the team or the hitters coming to bat struggle with RiSP.

I don't disagree that Podsednik was a big part of the White Sox having such a great first half, but he had an OBP of .369. You have to get on first to steal second. And as Podsednik later showed, with his mediocre performance and injury problems, it can be tough to sustain a high OBP and a high SB rate. I'd rather have a leadoff hitter who gets on base, and hits lots of doubles, instead of hoping we can find a speedy leadoff guy with a 80% SB success rate. How many teams have one of those, anyways?

QUOTE(WHITESOXRANDY @ Jan 29, 2008 -> 09:47 AM) Would someone please go to Spring Training and step on Ozuna's leg so that the Sox can get a useful player for the bench? Thank you. Why is Ozuna not useful? He's been solid off the bench for us offensively, brings some speed, and defensively can play lots of positions mediocre-to-poor. That's about as good as you can expect off the bench.

QUOTE(lvjeremylv @ Jan 28, 2008 -> 06:42 PM) Sometimes those projections pan out, sometimes they don't. If I recall correctly, we were picked to finish 3rd or 4th in the Central in 2005, and we all saw what happened there. Bottom line in professional sports is that so often, injuries can crush a team that otherwise would have been right in the thick of things. There are no projections or theories that can predict what players are going to get injured, and when; nor can they predict what players are going to have career years and, conversely, what players are going to have off years. That's why they go out and play 162 games and see what happens. And like I said before, the '07 Sox finished at 72-90, which was their Pythagorean Record. And like I said before, I realize statistical evidence isn't the only way to evaluate baseball, because of the variances present in a full season. It's still a useful tool, though. And in cases like this, there is absolutely NO evidence that Owens would put up anything better than the projected ZiPS or Marcel line. Anything else requires a leap of faith, and that's not going to help this team.

QUOTE(Y2HH @ Jan 28, 2008 -> 10:26 AM) Simply because projections like this, or other "pythags" and mundane calculations are meaningless until the games are played. I don't think it's unreasonable to believe he will improve over last year, being as young as he was, with more experience under his belt. According to calculations like this, the 2005 Sox were a second or third place team that didn't win the world series. The line I mentioned would be an improvement for Owens. And what about his minor league stats indicates that he's going to significantly improve? He's a career .294 / .362 / .368 hitter in the minors. And that's mostly due to his breakout AA season, which he hasn't even come close to in any other season in his career. Believe me, I'd like Jerry to hit .300 with an OBP of .370+, and steal 40+ bases. The only evidence we have, though, is his past seasons, and the likely projected results of a full 2008 season from him. Just saying "you have a feeling" that he'll be better because he's young isn't based in any way on fact. If calculations like this are "meaningless," then what about the 2007 Sox? They finished at 72-90, which just happens to be their Pythagorean record. You can't discount any sort of statistical evidence or projection just because the games haven't been played yet. By that logic, no one would know how any player or team would perform, ever.

QUOTE(SoxFanForever @ Jan 28, 2008 -> 01:47 PM) Has anyone used the wireless ethernet adapter for 360 yet? I was thinking about getting one instead of running a long cable through my house. Any thoughts on them? Too expensive. Try this

The Accord seems like a pretty good choice. I'm finding some nice ones in my price range. I was looking at a 2 door V6 Mercedes-Benz C320, which was a very nice car, but just thinking about the associated repair costs soon after purchase for a car with 56,000 miles on it makes me shudder. There's some excellent advice in this thread. Thanks everyone!