almagest

Yeah, he was good enough in relief last year that someone with playoff aspirations will likely pick him up. Would be fine having him back but he's probably gone.

I don't think he's going to have a choice. He was bad as a starter and good as a reliever.

Then I have no idea why you said the Sox have the same problem the Braves did, because that team is good.

No it isn’t, because Banks was way cheaper and was much better last year. Bummer had low surplus value due to his terrible 2023 and high contract value. I already covered this with Bummer.

Gowens is a starter. Also, I don’t think you knew who was a 40 man bubble candidate or not, because you thought they had a roster crunch like the Braves even though both those guys are gone.

Cool, so they presumably took the best deal they could and got back a SP prospect who had a good year for the Sox and should be in AAA, a high draft pick SS who struggled and was worth a shot, and a spot starter/long man with team control who was ok for a terrible team. The Braves also threw in a utility infielder who plays good defense and a project starting pitcher the Sox probably hoped could regain some of his 2019 form. Maybe the Sox could’ve gotten one more lower level lotto ticket instead of Soroka and Lopez, but this trade looks fine to me.

Yeah, just like Bummer. Better after he left. Good thing they got rid of him when they could. The Sox don’t even have a full 40 man roster lol what are you talking about. No one wants most of their 26 man players because they lost 121 games last year and most of them stink, not because of the trade they made with the Braves. You also know that Lopez and Soroka were the non-tender candidates, right? Not the other three players? And you know Soroka is already gone, and Lopez is probably not coming back, right?

Kopech was pretty good in 2021 and 2022, was WAY better than Bummer after he left the Sox, and if you stretch, you can say he returned two low level prospects. Hill was about as good as Bummer this year and was way cheaper. Yankees picked him up for nothing after he stunk with the Sox. Banks was solid and very cheap, and returned one low level prospect. The rest of these guys were either always terrible, too old, or were good previously and regressed here, which doesn't give me confidence that Bummer would've bounced back. Honestly, by looking at what the Sox got for Kopech and Banks, the Braves might've overpaid.

So if you think those guys suck, then why would Bummer rebound here?

So then why was Bummer so likely to rebound here?

🙄

I already covered this - in your best case scenario, there's little surplus value in a 3.5-3.75 ERA, 0.6 WAR middle reliever in August, when he'll be making $7.25 million + a $7.5 million dollar option in the next two years. His contract renegotiation helps to show this. They likely would've gotten a similar package, if not worse.

So what? These "career odds" don't matter when GMs are evaluating who they send out in trades. No one is going to pay 2019-2022 prices for him when his most recent year was so bad. There's also zero guarantee he was going to rebound on a team that was at best going to be slightly better than were the year before, and ended up being the worst team of all time with substantial player regressions across the entire roster.

Sure sounds like it. Venable probably caught wind of this and decided to seriously pursue a manager job.

Soroka was a fine gamble, like I said, and he showed some promise as a reliever. Lopez... well he sucks, but I get trying to fill a hole with him until guys like Sosa were actually ready. The only trade I can think of that is close to fulfilling what SS2k5 seems to want is Shields for Erik Johnson and Tatis Jr, but we don't have the luxury of making trades with Rick Hahn.

Yeah, and if Bummer had a 6 ERA for the Sox this year - and odds are he would've been bad on this team, since like 95% of their roster severely under-performed - you'd be upset they didn't trade him when they could get something for him. It's all hindsight.

Sounds like hitting coaches taking the fall for the Orioles heavily relying on young players, who can be streaky and struggle to adapt to pitchers changing approaches to them. Hopefully this works out well for us - would really like to hear what this role entails and what kinds of changes he makes.

I already agreed the deal was a little light and swapping Soroka and Lopez for a lower level/flawed diamond in the rough the Sox thought they could polish would have been ideal in theory, though I do not trust the Sox as currently constructed to make the most out of players like that. It sounds like you were expecting an impact prospect of some kind, though, which is 100% unrealistic for a middle reliever coming off a terrible year.

I assume not, but any idea why he was fired?

You just said Schuster, Shewmake and Gowens were fine as pieces of this deal. Three "fine" pieces plus two throw ins at the major league level sounds like pretty fair value for a reliever who had a 6 ERA at that time, and after a good season still renegotiated his deal for far less money in 2025.

There’s not a whole lot of surplus value on Bummer at $7.25 or $7.5 million. He’s at $3.5 million next year on his refreshed deal. That would’ve been worth something in a deadline trade, assuming he rebounded here.

With this crappy defense behind him, and with less than half a year left on his contract? No way.

I can see the rationale behind Soroka and Lopez, and I’d bet they were basically free. I doubt Getz turned down anything useful to take those guys. Could they have instead gotten a low minors guy without any success so far that their scouts/analytics loved? Probably. I also don’t trust those guys at all. Not yet, anyway. Hopefully we can build the infrastructure to start making those kinds of deals with some confidence. Overall, if we want to say that Getz’s trades have all felt a little light, then I can agree with that.

Sox hitters: "Wait just a darn minute here... you can hit the ball IN THE AIR?!"

Yes I'm sure so many teams were beating down the door to trade valuable prospects for one year of a guy with a 6.79 ERA in 2023 who walked 5.6 per 9, and seemed to fold under any pressure. Switching out guys on the 40 man bubble for prospects would've returned marginal ones at best, and people would've bitched about that, too. GMs aren't going to overpay for performance several years out of date, nor are they going to just buy the "his FIP was so much lower so give me good prospects!" argument either. Soroka was a good flier to see if he could recapture some of his 2019 success. He ended up being a solid bullpen guy and I wouldn't mind seeing him back, though since he elected free agency that's probably not an option. Schuster produced 1 WAR in 73 innings as a long man/spot starter and should be an ok arb eligible addition going forward for a bad team. Lopez did what he was expected to - play good defense at a non-premium position and not hit at all. He was brought in to likely fill in a gap until the Sox felt guys like Sosa were more ready. If he's back I'll be really surprised. Shewmake sucks and likely won't be with the team. At best they'll stick him in AAA. He was a former first round pick, though, and is the type of guy the Sox should be running through to see if they can get anything out of them. Gowens was age appropriate for AA and pitched solidly. He also strikes out over 10 batters per 9. He'll probably be in AAA next season and could end up being a useful bullpen guy. Not sure he's a starter long-term, but we'll see. Bummer rebounded nicely with a team that could play defense and actually scout. His contract extension has no bearing on the value of the trade. Overall, the trade was fine.