Chicago White Sox

Because 20 bad innings in 2019 after not having a spring training? That’s a pretty stupid to think the best reliever in baseball is going to suddenly fall-off…

Yup, Hahn gambled that the guy who put up a 1.64 FIP in the 52.2 innings prior (including all but the first IP in that “rocky” 2020 season) to the trade and with a HoF track record would somehow remain good. What a fucking idiot. Too bad one of those other morons Friedman or Neander didn’t acquire Kimbrel first so Hahn couldn’t land such a ticking time bomb. My god the amount of revisionist theory here is truly astounding.

You continue to prove you can’t separate need / price from expectation. Tray is ripping the front office for not assuming Kimbrel would collapse like a house of cards. The best two organizations in baseball both were in hot pursuit of him and did not expect this either. You arguing there were other needs is a completely different argument. Also, the percentages you have are wrong. It was 70% of his innings with the Cubs that were elite innings and the ones immediately preceding the transaction. The 30% of bad innings came the year he didn’t have a spring training. Nothing suggested a sudden fall-off was imminent and anyone saying otherwise is full of shit to put it politely.

I’d rather have Scherzer too, but I’m operating under the assumption that Kimbrel is dealt for Segura+, which makes it much more challenging to also add a left-handed bat. Obviously that is far from a certainty, but was the point of the exercise.

I don’t have confidence Leury is a 2 win player going forward. As such, I’d rather divert resources to RF, 2B, and SP.

I’d rather save $4M to $5M and give his job to Romy.

Marchan is based off some speculation and is a name that James confirmed has been involved in Kimbrel discussions with the Phillies.

His xFIP was actually lower in the 2nd half than the first half. He did give up harder contact and more HRs, but the K rate improved and the BB rate was the same. Not sure there is enough there to be overly concerned.

To me, it’s now or never to supplement the base roster with pieces that can help us get a championship. From my perspective, long-term we can afford to add two guys with AAVs that add up to $40M or so before we start approaching problematic territory with raises, etc. Taylor would be a nice player, but I think 2017 to 2020 Conforto is the exact player this lineup needs and I think we’d be getting that player at a huge discount. As for Gausman, I want another TOR starter and while not a true ace, he gives us a quality #2 starter who may have some room improvement given his strong connection with Katz. His addition gives us arguably the deepest and most talented rotation in baseball.

So let’s assume the $190M to $200M payroll range for next year is accurate. How would you feel if the moves below represented our final offseason more or less? Graveman = 3/$24M Kimbrel to PHI for Segura, Marchan, & Alvarado Conforto = 4/$76M Keuchel + $7M to NYM for PTBNL Gausman = 5/$120M For just under $200M you’d be rocking something like this: Lineup = 1) Moncada, 3B# | 2) Robert, CF | 3) Abreu, 1B | 4) Conforto, RF* | 5) Jimenez, LF | 6) Anderson, SS | 7) Grandal, C# | ? Vaughn, DH | 9) Segura, 2B Bench = IF: Gonzalez | OF: Engel | 1B/OF: Sheets* | BC: Marchan Rotation = #1: Giolito | #2: Gausman | #3: Lynn | #4: Cease | #5: Kopech Bullpen = CL: Hendriks | SU: Bummer* | SU: Graveman | MR: Crochet* | MR: Ruiz | MR: Alvarado* | MR: Burr | LR: Lopez I don’t love the Segura fit at that price point, but he would greatly improve our infield defense at least and provide some OBP at the bottom of the lineup. And while I’d prefer Scherzer as a legit ace, I love Gausman as a cheaper alternative if Jerry won’t foot the bill for Max. The bullpen gives me some concerns on the front-end, so I wouldn’t be against another cheap add there. But the best part of this plan is we basically keep all our young players and assets, providing much needed depth and ammo for mid-season additions if needed.

Yup, I’m angry at armchair GMs like yourself who use hindsight to suggest they are smarter than Andrew Friedman & Erik Neander. But then I see you’re using a video from a year ago about Kimbrel’s “sudden & bizarre decline” with the Cubs as proof that he would go from best reliever in baseball pre-deadline to a complete gas can post-deadline and I realize this is just another one of your loud, baseless arguments.

One year of defensive metrics isn’t predictive and for players their age you should look at their entire body of work. The reality is Conforto is a better defensive OF and can play RF. There isn’t much to debate here. The bulk of Schwarber’s defensive over his career is tied to outfield assists in a single season. He has been a negative defensive player every other year, including the last couple. He is really bad out there as OAA paints very clearly. So yes, defense is a very reason for signing Conforto over Schwarber.

We aren’t getting Lux for Kimbrel dude. And no way in hell do they let Keuchel’s option vest under any circumstance.

Moniak is obviously not overly valuable but is fine as a throw-in given he is pre-arb with options. Kingery makes $14M the next two years, so he’d actually represent a reduction in our return with his inclusion.

Yeah, they really blew that evaluation on Lynn too. And pursuing Wheeler & Burnes was also super dumb cause those guys suck. Probably taking too much advice from Steve Stone? Amirite tray? I mean, it’s pretty obvious Kimbrel was going to collapse well before we acquired him. We should have known the second those stupid Dodgers & Rays’ organizations joined the mix that the dude was a ticking time bomb.

Thanks James! You think there might be some real momentum for a Phillies trade?

Phillies top 10

Yeah, I could seeing Iglesias get a massive contract, which makes Kimbrel a pretty nice alternative on a one year deal.

The Phillies have always made the most sense, but I’m still skeptical they’d give up a crazy package for one year of Kimbrel. But “crazy” could be relative and perhaps this dude (if legit) thinks Segura is a big-time piece.

Fair enough.

Marchan is an undesirable piece? Dude is a current top 10 prospect who makes the league minimum. He should have some real value.

I literally said take with a major grain of salt. Just figured it’s worth sharing to drive some conservation since we don’t know if this dude is a total fraud or not.

Are you including CF defense in those DRS & UZR150 numbers?

Lol…there is the first one, but this one we know is a total fraud. Will not post them again, bit figured it’s worth exposing them. @maloney.adam - Take note bud. We don’t need to create another Orlando.

Will be interesting in the Foodies jump all over this now that it’s on Soxtalk.