Chicago White Sox

Alright guys, so as I’ve been reading through offseason proposals here and on SoxMachine, one thing that’s obviously clear is that is will be challenging to make sizable investments in both RF & 2B. As such, if we only have the budget to make one sizable addition to the offense, which position would you prefer making a large, multi-year commitment to?

What is your expectation of the likely budget?

Fully agree. Which makes getting some balance out of RF absolutely critical. As you said, getting cheap 2B production should be fairly easy to come by, but it may not address the broader lineup concerns we have at the moment.

I struggle with both grades. La Russa failed to get the job done in October, but you can’t blame that on just him. That being said, some of the decisions he made in Houston were brutal and cost us significantly. He also made quite of a few mind-boggling decisions during the regular season, although he did get a little better with time. I also felt like we coasted a bit in the 2nd half and blew a great chance for HFA. To me, I’d give him a B- for the year and that exceeded my pre-season expectations. Hahn is also another one hard to grade. He acquired two All-Stars plus was able to retrain a third at a reasonable cost, but also entered the season having barely done anything to improve the offense and generally with little depth across the board. He also went for it with the Kimbrel trade at the deadline (which obviously flopped in hindsight), but failed to once again address the offense. I’d give him a B+ given the payroll constraints he had to work with, but clearly another bat would have been helpful down the stretch.

Let me be very clear here. If the Sox aren’t prepared to take the payroll to $175M or so, then trading Madrigal was very foolish. I happen to believe our front office isn’t completely incompetent and actually have a multi-year outlook and realize the pressure losing a cost controlled player in Madrigal has on the broader budget. Therefore, I’m going to operate under the assumption they feel they can replace him this offseason without disrupting the rest of their plans. Also, and I say this as a big Madrigal fan, but 2B simply aren’t that valuable in today’s game. Heading into last offseason, Kolton Wong was a free agent and was projected to give you similar production to Nick the next two seasons. He got a whopping $18M over two years. Even if you assume a 5 win projection for him, that puts the cost of a projected win at only $3.6M. Cesar Hernandez, another guy who consistently provides 2 win production, only got $5M for one year. Overall, the cost of a win for a pure 2B was in the $2.5M to $3.6M range, which is far less than the $8M to $9M most experts use for broader valuation purposes. Point is, the market does not value 2B the same way it does other positions at the moment. So when you factor in positional market factors, Nick’s poor track record of durability, and well below expectations baseball instincts, defense, and base-running (to be clear, I’m not suggesting he’s bad in these areas, but not 70 grade like Fangraphs had indicated prior to joining the Sox), I’m not sure he was the asset some people make him out to be. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to have him at 2B because I think he adds some great balance to the lineup (despite being RH) and he’s also cheap as fuck for a couple more years, but he’s definitely replaceable if the resources are there. No doubt it sucks losing him for what we ultimately got from Kimbrel, but I seriously doubt he was going to be a centerpiece in a deal for a cost controlled star. There is a reason the Sox cashed in when they did and I think it’s very clear the organization soured on him a bit despite good offensive results.

I mean, aren’t most deadline trades “buy high” trades?

The evidence we couldn’t win a World Series was there? Please elaborate.

Sox have some work to optimize their postseason chances, but I doubt many clubs would be willing to change situations with the White Sox heading into the offseason.

So let me get this straight. You knew that our rotation was going to be completely useless against Houston in the playoffs (despite being the best in baseball at the TDL) and that our offense which was generally good for the most part and getting Robert & Eloy back was going to be mostly crickets in October? Is this all based on the seven game sample against the Astros when we had multiple men down? Also, how are the Braves beating the Astros right now when objectively speaking every baseball expert would have picked us as the superior team over Atlanta heading into the playoffs. Are you actually arguing that teams can’t get hot in the playoffs and actually win the whole thing? Ultimately it appears you are very upset about the price we paid for Kimbrel (which is a totally fair take) and are unable to be objective about any other element of the deal. Like seriously, I shouldn’t have to explain to you how valuable elite relief pitching is in the playoffs and that applies to all teams. And regardless of what you think, Kimbrel was the best reliever in baseball at the time with a 0.50 ERA and 100th percentile xwOBA. Arguably the best two organizations in all of baseball were highly interested in him and willing to pay a substantial price despite this “only been good for ~30 IP over the past four seasons” (which is both untrue and a poor attempt at hyperbole). If you know better than the Rays and Dodgers’ pro scouting staffs then you are clearly in the wrong profession.

How have they set themselves up in a poor spot? Because the payroll is escalating as we get deeper into our competitive window? This happens to all contenders eventually.

You are saying this with the benefit of hindsight. Acting like we somehow couldn’t beat the Astros in the post-season on July 31st is straight up dumb. Are you really going to stand by this point? I mean the Braves are about to beat them with four scrap-heap OF additions and a beat up rotation. Saying the move was “doomed to failure from conception” is just completely untrue and laughable. Other than criticizing the price, which is completely fair, you haven’t made one point that isn’t hindsight based. Many of the best organizations in baseball wanted Craig Kimbrel, including the Dodgers and Rays, and yet half of the posters here on Soxtalk including yourself knew the best reliever in baseball was going to fold like a house of cards down the stretch. It sucks that we don’t have Madrigal, but you need to separate the loss of him from what the addition of Kimbrel should have done for our post-season chances. The trade didn’t work out for us, but the only part that was dumb was the price we paid. Had we won a World Series and Kimbrel is still the best reliever in baseball sitting on a 1/$16M deal no one would be bitching right now.

So what’s your plan then?

Realistically you need to bump up the payroll to $200M or so or trade a vet for a couple of prospects. No doubt things will get challenging, which makes pushing for a length post-season and the corresponding revenue important.

I’m not going to take anything away from Atlanta, but them picking up “4 good outfielders” is because they had 0 good outfielders at the time. Also, most deadlines the most valuable pieces are elite back-end relievers. b**** all you want about the price, but people keep acting like pursuing what should have been an elite bullpen addition was somehow stupid and it’s absolutely laughable.

I’m giving him another year before I write him off, but he definitely didn’t do enough this year to factor into the the near-term plans.

Sure, if we move Vaughn we could probably get him. But not sure I get the fit with Torres though. He’s a really poor defender and another RH hitter who has consistently been in the 55th to 65th percentile for xwOBA. Giving up Vaughn to get three arb years of what might just be a 2 win 2B doesn’t seem worthwhile to me. Why not just sign Escobar for a small cash outlay and keep Andrew?

I don’t see what we could possibly offer the Yankees for Torres and don’t see him as a viable option. As for RF, we should not be making any plans around Cespedes. We really need to stop dicking around with half-ass stopgaps and just sign Conforto. We need a LH hitter and there is unlikely to be someone potentially as impactful at that price point.

Are you Jon Werner?

Like one of three posters I have on ignore. Dude literally contributes nothing to this board.

PM me an email address and I can send to you.

I think you’re missing my point. Most of the guys in the $8M to $10M aren’t going to sign up for a bullpen role and be seventh in the pecking order behind Giolito, Lynn, Cease, Keuchel, Rodon, & Kopech heading into last season. They took roles in which they had a shot at immediate starting roles. I fully agree with you that we need more guys able to jump into the rotation and eat innings, but practically no teams can afford multiple $10M starters in their bullpen. It’s simply not realistic. And when you factor in a strict operating budget, it’s going to be even more challenging to have Dodgers like rotation depth. We should have signed some guys to minor league deals though. Fully agree there.

Because Rogan probably said it on his podcast

Which starters in the $8 to $10M ranger took bullpen roles? And what other cuts would have you made to fit another $16M to $20M worth of pitchers in the budget? I agree the pitching depth to the enter the season last year was a bit scary, but I honestly don’t think your proposal is very realistic outside of the most elite spenders.

You lost me at trading Lance Lynn. Like it literally would never happen after signing that extension and it doesn’t make a lick of sense IMO. You simply don’t trade a guy like Lance when you’re trying to win a World Series.