Eminor3rd

QUOTE (raBBit @ Mar 17, 2015 -> 05:28 PM) I got you on a beer at a game within the next few months DA. Lol

I thought that Gillaspie liner was going further than that.

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Mar 17, 2015 -> 03:31 PM) Ramirez is more proven. Not sure why you would want to switch the two in the line up with Gillaspie hitting 6th and Ramirez 7th. Just to maintain the LRLRLRLRLR theme. I like the idea that they can't bring in a platoon setup specialist and mow down multiple guys later in the game.

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Mar 17, 2015 -> 02:52 PM) I would rather have a more proven hitter behind Abreu-LaRoche-Garcia. Than Gillaspie? I don't think we have one. Unless you want Cabrera there, but that creates a much bigger hole at #2.

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Mar 17, 2015 -> 12:09 PM) I actually think its perfect. I'd swap Ramirez and Gillaspie. L Eaton S Cabrera R Abreu L LaRoche R Garcia L Gillaspie R Ramirez L Johnson R Flowers

QUOTE (fathom @ Mar 17, 2015 -> 01:50 PM) Not sure if I've posted this thought in this thread, but the lack of power on the bench worries me, especially from the 4th outfielder. With Eaton and Garcia seemingly tweaking something every week last year, I have a feeling the 4th outfielder is going to be the most important bench player on the team. Another reason why Denorfia would have been a better use of the $2m we paid Beckham. We just have so much mediocre, glove-first MI depth already. Hahn did a great job of filling holes this winter, but I agree that bench OF depth was one he left open.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Mar 17, 2015 -> 12:25 PM) I would have given him the chance and spent the Beckham money on Rickie Weeks or Chris Denorfia. Obviously I don't know that those options would have been surely available but still. Soto, Bonifacio, Denorfia/Weeks and Saladino >>> Soto, Bonifacio, Shuck and Beckham I'd have gone after another scrap heap starter with the money. Denorfia would be good, too. I'm not sure Weeks is much better than Beckham at this point, especially because he's got some nagging leg injuries, I believe.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Mar 17, 2015 -> 12:52 PM) Wait what? You think a guy who just put up a wRC+ of 2 last year is going to regress to a wRC+ of at least 70 to 75?? I get it was an incredibly small sample, but I can't remember a single player who looked so clueless at the plate in recent memory. Exactly. No one is that bad. And guys that make solid contact and have speed have a certain floor. Leury K rate was out of control last year, but his peripherals show that his contact rates/discipline weren't too much worse than average. I think some growth and more PT could see him become a useful bench piece.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Mar 17, 2015 -> 11:42 AM) Say what, now? This isn't a high bar we're talking about. Give Saladino a chance. I agree, I'd have given him the chance.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 17, 2015 -> 11:34 AM) I like Leury more than most, but Leury and upside with the bat should never be in the same sentence. Saladino had a nice offensive season last year before he was hurt. The 2 previous years he was putting up Gordon Beckham major league numbers in AA. I would really question his effectiveness on the major league level at this time. Yeah there's no question that Beckham would be better than Saladino, I just don't think the difference was worth $2m and a roster spot in the first place. But we'll see -- fans always seem to underestimate depth, so it's certainly possible his contract ends up being worth it. I tend to think, though, that if we reach that point, it probably means the season is already lost.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 17, 2015 -> 11:34 AM) I like Leury more than most, but Leury and upside with the bat should never be in the same sentence. Yeah I don't have him turning into anything significant, but I also think he just can't possibly be as bad as he's been. I think he'll regress to at least a 70 - 75 wRC+ or so just by continuing to swing the bat and focusing on contact.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 17, 2015 -> 11:15 AM) Say Gillaspie gets hit by a pitch and breaks his wrist, and is out 6 weeks. Consider 80% of the time in those 6 weeks, the White Sox will be facing RHP, which seems more than reasonable, who among Beckham, Leury, Bonifacio, Saladino, Sanchez or Matt Davidson is really the best candidate to take the majority of those ABs? Most won't admit it because of personal bias, but right now it's Beckham. I'd admit it's probably Beckham in that instance, but it's just as likely that Melky or Avi or Eaton breaks a wrist instead, so having a guy that's able to step in at all of those positions (including 3B) is more valuable at this point. I don't mind Beckham on the bench in general, as opposed to being cut, but I wouldn't have spent the $2m on him in the first place. I'd rather give that role to someone who can be just as valuable defensively but who might have some upside with the bat, like Saladino or Leury. EDIT: It'd also be really cool to have some legit speed to spare on the bench. Like say if we went north with Soto/Bonifacio/Shuck/Garcia. You can basically pinch run both of those players every game if you wanted, because they can serve as useful defensive replacements anywhere on the field late in the game. Would make for a pretty fun potential edge.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 17, 2015 -> 08:24 AM) The problem is s*** happens. You can used the "if used correctly", the problem is with a 25 man roster, at least a 12 man pitching staff, and injuries and illness, there are going to be plenty of times that is simply not possible. Definitely. But that doesn't mean your Opening Day 25-man roster shouldn't be "plan A."

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Mar 17, 2015 -> 07:58 AM) Let's hope so, we shouldn't be giving him 325-375 AB's to get to that number or we're in trouble. Still not exactly clear at this point what's being argued. I'm arguing that Bonifacio is a much better part-time player than Beckham because of their respective skillsets. If used correctly, I think Bonifacio can be a valuable asset. That does NOT mean I think he should be a starter.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 17, 2015 -> 05:27 AM) For their careers Becham has played about 40 more games and has a 5.3 WAR vs, Bonifacios 6.0 WAR. Since you know Gordon Beckham sucks, I guess this would be proof Bonifacio, despite beimg faster and playing more positions, sucks as well. Again, if Bonifacio is not goimg to play against RHP, he is hardly going to play. alexei played in almost every game and had 162 PA vs. LHP. Bonifacio is going to have to play against RHP occassionally. I'm not trying to say Bonifacio is awesome. I AM trying to say he's better than Gordon Beckham, which is consistent with everything you just said as it is (Bonifacio has more WAR despite fewer games played), but especially so when you consider that just shy of HALF of Gordon Beckham's career fWAR came in a single season six years ago, whereas Bonifacio came in at roughly league average (2.1 fWAR) just last season. Beckham, last season, was actually BELOW replacement level (-0.2 fWAR). Surely you'd agree that when referencing a counting stat, recency is an important factor if you're trying to decide what's going to happen next season. Alex Rodriguez has 654 career HR while Jose Abreu has just 36, but you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who thinks A Rod will hit more homers than Abreu in 2015. Yes, I understand that Bonifacio will face RHP at some point in 2015, just like any part-time player. But you know what? He faced RHP sometimes last year too, and he still managed that 2.1 fWAR.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 10:32 PM) LMAO. The projected WAR is wrong because they have them playing too much but projected standings and strength of schedule using these imcorrect numbers are good tools. The funny thing is since WAR is a counting stat of the 4 projections fangraphs uses, the almost all have Bonifacio making 100 more plate appearances than Beckahm and Beckham still the same or better. Please read the below, and mentally replace 'Garcia' with 'Bonifacio' QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 05:24 PM) Again, WAR is made on inputs that are designed to compare players in a context-neutral situation. When you're building a team, you have to consider the context in which you're deploying the player. It's probably true that Beckham would produce more value than Garcia if they were both placed a full-time role, but if they're occupying bench roles that specifically try to minimize their time at the plate and maximize their time on the basepaths/in the field, Beckham's ability to out-hit Garcia is marginalized. Except in the case of Bonifacio, Beckham may NOT even be able to outhit him, especially if each player is used in a platoon role. Beckham has a much more neutral platoon split, which evens him out in the unlikely and very unfortunate event that either player would be counted on to start consistently against the platoon split. But again: QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 05:24 PM) Again, WAR is made on inputs that are designed to compare players in a context-neutral situation. When you're building a team, you have to consider the context in which you're deploying the player. It's probably true that Beckham would produce more value than Garcia if they were both placed a full-time role, but if they're occupying bench roles that specifically try to minimize their time at the plate and maximize their time on the basepaths/in the field, Beckham's ability to out-hit Garcia is marginalized.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 04:33 PM) so you now agree that postimg standings based on projected WAR, and determining strength of Schedule based on projected WAR,(only weeks ago you thought it so important you started a thread) is a joke because now aparently projected WAR is now silly. Leury over Beckham? Another joke. Nope, wrong. I won't rehash my argument for the utility of WAR projections because I'm tired of re-typing it and you don't seem to respond well to anything that isn't completely black & white, but arguing that bench player WAR on an individual level can be a few decimals off due to PT does NOT invalidate projections because (a) bench players only add very small amounts to the projection in the first place, rarely (if ever) having a strong effect on the overall results, and (b) any WAR gained or lost by an individual player due to inaccurate PT numbers is subsequently gained or lost by a different player, thereby further marginalizing an already tiny effect. Dividing total innings to be played in a season is, essentially, a zero-sum calculation. So if Gordon Beckham's projected WAR is 0.2 too high because he's projected for 150 too many ABs, those 150 ABs are going to to another player instead who's very likley to put up something in the neighborhood of 0.1 - 0.3 WAR instead. In some extreme case, the Beckham PT disparity might be the difference between like 40 team WAR and , I don't know, 40.4?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 04:30 PM) But you are basically saying Bonifacio cannot play vs. RHP. For this point, I'm just going to repost this again. Maybe you'll read it this time: QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 04:22 PM) Do you mean literally never? I'm confused. He'll pinch-hit sometimes and get the occasional start, and those should only be against lefties, yes. But he'll also pinch run and serve a defensive replacement lots of times and not end up getting an at-bat. Sometimes when he plays, though, there are going to be some at bats against RHP relievers, so he'll definitely face them sometimes, yes. In fact, since he is technically a "switch hitter," he'll probably face a few too many RHP. But that's not really any different than Beckham. He should only ever start against lefties, especially since it's looking increasingly likely that left-handed Micah is the everyday starter. He'll get the occasional pinch hit ONLY against lefties, and he'll pinch run and defensive sub sometimes but less frequently than Bonifacio because he's less valuable at those things than Bonifacio. Next: QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 04:30 PM) And blow off all these projections that you used to think were very useful tools. Bonifacio is faster, he does play more positions. That doesn't mean he is valuable and Beckham needs to be waived. If Banifacio is so much more valuable, how are all these projections you seem to defend to no end whenever they are questioned, not coming to the same conclusion? I'm assuming that when you say "both players project about the same," you're referring to their WAR projections. In this instance, both players' projections assume they'll be getting a ton of PT. I don't think it's in the plan for either of them to get that PT, and so the WAR numbers aren't helpful, because WAR is a counting stat. For example, the only one of the systems that projects Beckham to reach 1.0 WAR is ZiPS, but ZiPS has him projected for over 500 PA. If you pro-rate those numbers for the more reasonable 300 PA that the other systems are calling for, you're going to be closer to that 0.5-0.7 range, which is where Bonifacio is despite ~100 fewer PA projected. If both players are deployed as they are planned to be deployed (or as I think they SHOULD be planned to be deployed at least), those baserunning numbers are going to be very important. If Bonifacio spends a lot of his time in the OF corners, his WAR numbers are going to be skewed downward because of the difference in replacement level for a corner OF vs. a second baseman. This is what people mean when they say that you need to use all the information you can to paint a picture rather than just consider one tool blindly and call it wrong when it doesn't answer every question for you. This is why no one ever argues that WAR is meant to be the "be all end all" stat except, ironically, Harold Reynolds when he's setting up a strawman. Even Dan Szymborski is quick to point out that PT numbers are the least reliable component of the projections because they are affected by things that are not visible in the numbers. The rates, however, are much better, and you may have to apply your own PT estimates when you have reason to believe yours are more accurate. QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 04:30 PM) Leury Garica is faster than either, and plays more positions than either. Maybe they should keep him. If we didn't already have Bonifacio, I would be in favor of keeping Garcia on the bench over Beckham precisely because of these things. Again, WAR is made on inputs that are designed to compare players in a context-neutral situation. When you're building a team, you have to consider the context in which you're deploying the player. It's probably true that Beckham would produce more value than Garcia if they were both placed a full-time role, but if they're occupying bench roles that specifically try to minimize their time at the plate and maximize their time on the basepaths/in the field, Beckham's ability to out-hit Garcia is marginalized.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 04:13 PM) Your fangraphs 4 projections project them pretty much the same, and Bonifacio makes double. Beckham is a bargain. Dick Allen. Are you reading these posts? If you're going to continue arguing this, please stop comparing both players' equally s***ty offensive projections/track records and address the differences on the basepaths and defensively, because that's literally the ENTIRE argument being made between the two players.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 04:13 PM) So you aren't ever going to play the guy vs, RHP? He is hardly going to play. Do you mean literally never? I'm confused. He'll pinch-hit sometimes and get the occasional start, and those should only be against lefties, yes. But he'll also pinch run and serve a defensive replacement lots of times and not end up getting an at-bat. Sometimes when he plays, though, there are going to be some at bats against RHP relievers, so he'll definitely face them sometimes, yes. In fact, since he is technically a "switch hitter," he'll probably face a few too many RHP. But that's not really any different than Beckham. He should only ever start against lefties, especially since it's looking increasingly likely that left-handed Micah is the everyday starter. He'll get the occasional pinch hit ONLY against lefties, and he'll pinch run and defensive sub sometimes but less frequently than Bonifacio because he's less valuable at those things than Bonifacio.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 02:21 PM) So the switch hitting that Eminor pointed out means nothing. An why is it cherry picking when he said having him in the line up for decent stretches and the Sox won't miss a beat? Can they request only LH pitchers? Beckham was pretty good against LHP too last season. But seriously, telling someone they are cherry picking when they are using career stats with a veteran is pretty weak. Ok, so take away the switch-hitting part and treat him like a righty. Bonifacio is a career 97 wRC+ against LHP, Beckham is a career 85 wRC+. And Bonifacio plays three more positions and is way faster.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 01:37 PM) If you saw the post I was refering to, the bat comes to play. Bonifacio will have some incredible offensive streak at some point this season assuming health. But no matter how fast he is, if he isn't on base, it really doesn't help much. An out batting LH counts just as much as an out batting RH. They are both decent bench guys. Certainly, but Bonifacio can be a valuable pinch runner and defensive replacement for everyone on the field, and he can be deployed with the platoon advantage (despite the fact that Beckham actually shows more neutral career splits than Bonifacio, but that won't matter because baseball managers will still only deploy traditional platoons) against any pitcher (except Pat Venditte, obviously). It's just flexibility. Bonifacio can help off the bench in a lot more ways than Beckham (or really almost every bench guy in the MLB) can.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 16, 2015 -> 12:33 PM) So they can't carry Beckham's bat, but can carry Bonafacio's. I am the weird one. Come on DA, you're ignoring his entire argument, which is about everything OTHER than the bat. Beckham and Bonifacio are both similar shades of bad at the plate. But only one is a 70 runner, switch hitter, and can play nearly every position on the field competently. No, you don't want him starting for long periods of time, but that's your ideal bench guy.

I say Shuck -- get the lefty OF bench bat who may still have some upside. There's room for one of Saladino/Beckham, but not both. So I think Saladino is again sent to the minors.

Maybe you should just have a choice for "no homers."