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Everything posted by Eminor3rd
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Rodon Joining Sox Tomorrow - Working out of Bullpen (Initially)
Eminor3rd replied to DirtySox's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Apr 20, 2015 -> 10:56 AM) It'd be interesting if they could get Drabek to AAA and have him stretched out as a starter. I think his two TJs are an obstacle to that. My guess is he's an RP for life now. -
QUOTE (Lillian @ Apr 20, 2015 -> 12:01 PM) I'm familiar with that argument, but never have been convinced of its validity. Leadoff and #2 hole are specialized roles. They aren't designed for the "best" hitter. A leadoff guy needs to see pitches, work the count, get on base, and steal if possible. A #2 has to be patient, in order to give the leadoff hitter a chance to steal. He has to stay out of the double play, execute the hit and run, bunt etc. That's why Abreu would not be a suitable hitter for either of those two spots, even though he is clearly the "best" hitter on the team. I just don't understand that entire argument. I think Carlos is a proficient hitter, from both sides of the plate, and that he is capable of performing the specialized tasks of a #2 hitter. Melky has some pop, and could be a run producer, if he batted further down in the order. Seems like a waste of his talent, to have him taking extra pitches, to protect a would be base stealer. I'm also pretty sure that bunting is not his strong suit, nor a good use of his talent. I wouldn't mind seeing Cabrera batting right behind Avi, vs LHP, instead of La Roche. Moreover, exactly what is Johnson going to contribute in the #9 hole, that would make him so valuable? He needs to demonstrate an ability to get on base at a higher than average rate, in order to become the big base stealing threat that he has the potential to be. All of that said, I'm convinced that Caulfield is right, and that Micah will benefit from the experience. I'm already discouraged enough about this team's chances for this year, that it makes sense to let him play, and get the experience so that next year, he won't be a rookie. There's a lot of math that makes/supports the argument, but basically it's this: Q: what's better than a two hitter who is able to be patient and move the runner over? A: a two hitter who gets base hits instead The other thing to remember is that each spot in the lineup gets about 18 extra PA over the course of the season than the previous one. So if you dropped Melky to 6th and replaced him with Sanchez, you're essentially taking 64 plate appearances away from Melky and giving them to arguably the worst hitter in the lineup. That's like 10% of a full season of PA! Now, the Tango math that argued the absolute best hitter should be #2 was based on late steroid-era offensive levels where on base percentage was super high league-wide, and therefore raw ABs was the best way to ensure max offense for a guy, since that guy was probably a monster and since guys were probably on base in front of him. The thing to keep in mind is that his work showed that the #4 slot played a very close second to the #2 hole in terms of RBI chances/raw PA combined, and I wouldn't be surprised if it leans even more that way in the current run environment. At worst, it's close. I wouldn't personally advocate Abreu in the two-hole, but I would much rather see him at 4 than 3, simply because he'd come up to bat with runners on more frequently. Only the leadoff man comes up to bat more frequently with the bases empty than #3.
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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Apr 20, 2015 -> 08:44 AM) The Sox have to have the worst second best player ever of the older franchises. It seems like we went basically to the 30s to the early 80s without a true superstar player until Fisk and Thomas showed up. There were obviously some good players in there but no real franchise ones. Appling maybe was good enough for that title. Fox and Aparichio were popular but I'm not sure good enough. Dick Allen wasn't with the Sox for long. I doubt Fisk will be on there because of the hall of fame fiasco. Eddie Collins is a GOAT caliber player but he played so long ago. Joe Jackson is banned from baseball but he's so culturally relevant and of course good that he should be on there. Frank Thomas is the only obvious lock. I'm voting Collins, Thomas, Konerko, and Minoso. I mean, Appling, Aparicio, and Fox are all Hall of Famers. Seems a little harsh.
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QUOTE (Lillian @ Apr 20, 2015 -> 04:55 AM) The reason to make the change is based more on the way Sanchez is performing, than it is on Johnson's slow start. I'm especially intrigued by the idea of having Carlos hit second, which is a much more valuable spot in the lineup, than 9TH. Why would you want a worse hitter batting second? Melky has started slow, but there's no question he's the better bat.
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QUOTE (flavum @ Apr 18, 2015 -> 10:20 AM) That's fine, I have an unpopular opinion. I can live with that. He left, he returned as a bench player. He should tell Merkin to go to LaRoche for the quotes. I mean, if Adam isn't too busy going to Vegas on the off day or doing the pregame stretch with his kid. I don't like that he's on the team, but now that he is, I sure don't blame him for acting like it. He sounds like he's just trying to get immersed in the season. Nothing wrong with that. Gotta have hope.
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QUOTE (ptatc @ Apr 18, 2015 -> 06:39 AM) Sorry , I should not have used the term you. I didn't mean you as the person. I meant to use it as a general term for the SABR and analytics that do say this frequently. The group often says that spending a great deal of money on relivers is a poor way to spend money due to their relative lack of importance. They dont effect the game much as they don't throw many innings and using them at the beginning of the 9th is wrong because the true leverage situations happen when someone is on base. If had this very discussion on this board for a decade. Again I apologize as I didn't mean the you as as a person but as the group. I can't remember if you were actually one of the people in those discussions. No big deal, no need to apologize. What I'm trying to clarify is that the reason SABR-ish people don't advocate big money on relievers isn't because of lack of importance, it's because they're very risky assets. The list of relievers that stay good for more than a couple years is really small. Yes, SABR-ish people will always argue that a starter's value is much higher than that of a reliever just based on raw innings, but even fWAR gives credit to relievers for high-leverage situations. That said, I have no problem with the Robertson deal at all, because sometimes you have to take risks if you're going to win. It was such a crazy hole for this team, it jhad to be done. And Hahn earned himself the financial leeway to buy a closer at market rate by already having his core locked up to below-market extensions.
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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 18, 2015 -> 09:59 AM) Can we not over-react to a player giving the canned answers he is expected to give?
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Thomas/Pierce/Konerko/Mouton
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QUOTE (ptatc @ Apr 17, 2015 -> 03:22 PM) I know I am. I think that is sone of the issue. On a serious note, you won't be saying that when reliivers are failing and these stats come out again. I won't because I'll actually clarify. No one says relievers don't matter. They DO say that reliever performance is volatile and therefore money can be invested more safely in other areas. That's a huge difference. What's old is people making blanket criticisms based on incorrect information. Don't accuse me of flip-flopping. I'm always open to changing my opinion based on new information and will always admit when I'm wrong, but I don't have any sort of agenda beyond trying to be correct.
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QUOTE (Baron @ Apr 17, 2015 -> 01:14 PM) This guys strike zone sucks The whole league's strike zone sucks. It's hard to get mad at guys for poor plate discipline when pitchers are getting 4 inches off BOTH sides of the plate.
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QUOTE (ptatc @ Apr 17, 2015 -> 11:30 AM) Because most of the analytics out there will tell you that a closer can be found anywhere and aren't really all that important. They have the least effect on winning because they don't pitch very much. He shouldn't be pitch the 9th inning anyway because that is not the most leveraged situation in the game. He is really being used improperly this season. (I don't really need to add the green do I?) So old.
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Awesome play.
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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Apr 14, 2015 -> 09:25 PM) 7.5 HR's ? Should be in green. You can't be serious . Most pitchers would be pulled by the 3rd or 4th one. Yes, you're correct, it was just a joke.
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QUOTE (Dunt @ Apr 17, 2015 -> 09:21 AM) I shamelessly want to see Rodon in the rotation asap b/c I believe he gives the Sox a better chance to win and be a potential playoff team. I dont know that it has ever been done before, but why not have Danks and Noesi split the 5th start every week? It still seems as though the team doesnt want to use Danks in long relief, but Noesi might be a slightly better option in the 5th spot, so why not just have them combine to go 4-5 innings each 5th day? Might be able to save the bullpen a little and still get max value out of them. Because the pitchers will b**** about it, and the managers won't make them do something they don't want to do. It make sense on paper though, as long as both those guys would be available for long relief as well.
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Six man rotation just doesn't make any sense. Why intentionally give starts to your 6th best pitcher? The reality is, unfortunately, if Danks isn't among the best options in either rotation OR the bullpen, he just needs to go.
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QUOTE (greg775 @ Apr 16, 2015 -> 03:57 PM) He's still the same Buehrle. He can throw a fastball by a guy or catch a guy looking when he needs to. I just find it odd you'd single out him in such an analogy when he's still in the top 1/4 of pitchers in the league. If you were trying to compliment Nolan Ryan, wouldn't you compare him to a pitcher you thought was good?
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 15, 2015 -> 04:05 PM) He ran out of gas against KC, and didn't get much help today. He hasn't been very good, but better than the numbers indicate. He's struck out 3.48 batters per 9 (!) and has managed a homerun rate substantially below his career norms. I don't see any it getting much/any better, unfortunately. Obviously these numbers aren't predictive after just two starts, but they're worrisome because they paint a picture that the results could/should be even worse at this point. I know you think I love to hate on Danks (I don't, honestly, I wear his shirsey proudly all the time), but I thought he looked just awful yesterday. Everything was up, and he was topping out at 88mph. Nearly every pitch was making me cringe expecting a bomb. I actually couldn't believe he wasn't getting totally destroyed. I'm definitely open to the possibility that he was doing something intentionally that was keeping the hitters off balance, but I certainly couldn't see it. It seemed like he was just getting lucky.
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 14, 2015 -> 01:53 AM) 6 bad games indicates he is pretty much screwed this year. Hopefully at some point in the last 156 he can figure something out which can give him some hope for next season. Maybe he can establish some value and we can dump his salary at the deadline.
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QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Apr 14, 2015 -> 09:59 AM) This weekend I'd bet the farm oon the under since he won't pitch vs them. I'm not cut out to be a casino mogul :'(
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O/U on homers vs. Noesi against Detroit: 7.5
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QUOTE (lilnicky @ Apr 11, 2015 -> 01:39 PM) just trying to get some life in this team I knew this post would shake it up!! Anybody qualified out there for manager please respond.... I don't know (or care much) who the manager SHOULD be, but I do know that I don't want anyone that has had ANYTHING to do with the unmitigated disaster that has been the Diamondbacks over the past several years.
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QUOTE (Dunt @ Apr 13, 2015 -> 04:38 PM) Longoria might be their superstar, but no one was showing up when that team was competitive. I see no reason for them to not listen to offers and nab a couple nice prospects. Regardless, we can't win that bidding.
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It feels like this team will never win a game.
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I hate the Royals
