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Everything posted by Eminor3rd
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 18, 2014 -> 07:36 AM) I have always wondered why reaching on an error does not count as a time reaching base in regards to a player's OBP. He didn't make an out. He did reach base. Obviously, there isn't going to be much difference, but it doesn't make much sense. It's because the fact that he reached base is credited to the fielder. The batter didn't "earn" the base.
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Also, guys, don't look now, but you can get a size XL Kevin Youkilis shirsey for just ten bucks! http://shop.mlb.com/product/index.jsp?prod...1452703.2455371 Lol
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QUOTE (black jack @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 07:37 PM) Never wear another man's name on your back. That seems like a Jack McDowell thing to say
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QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 01:33 PM) Batting average doesn't matter yet 100 percent of all announcing teams mention it out loud during broadcasts almost every at bat and SOME barely flash OBP on the screen. LOL. Yeah, THAT'S a great piece of evidence right there, lol.
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QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 02:14 PM) If you're going to be walking around NY in front of a bunch of Yankee fans I'd maybe go with "YOUR WHAT HURTS" and then the 62 QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 02:27 PM) "FORMER YANKEE PROSPECT" The thing I'm not getting the impression that anyone here has any idea that he was a former Yankees guy at all. I've had a lot of people even at work (where we're a baseball team) say stuff like, "yeah sucks that your Sox really only have one good pitcher" referring to Sale.
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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 01:10 PM) I take it THEBLOODYPENIS is out? I'm willing to consdier write-ins
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I need a Quintana shirsey. I just do. The question I have is this: how should I represent his name on the back? Quintana or Quetzalcoatl?
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 09:12 AM) I used WAR. I post it often. But I am not naive enough to believe it is some uber accurate number. It is a nice number to put everyone on the same line, but there is a little more that goes into winning games than numbers you can put into a formula. Right, who's arguing otherwise?
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 08:43 AM) No other stat is named Wins. It is very logical to think trading a 2 WAR player for a 6 WAR player added 4 wins based on the name. But that isn't necessarily true. Therefore, it is my opinion it is a poorly named number. The other thing is defensive WAR is still very, very debatable, with how it is being determined. And WAR is just based on numbers. Anyone who has done anything will admit people can bring far more or far less or just what their numbers show to the table in just about every line of work. To add to what wite said: 1. trading a 2WAR player for a 6WAR player WOULD be adding 4 wins -- on average. However, the average outcome is less likely to occur than one of the entire field of other outcomes. But it is still the MOST likely individual outcome. That it cannot predict the future accurately is completely irrelevant becasue it still succeeds in telling you how much better, on average and measured in wins, the second player is than the first. And that's what you need to know. 2. What do you mean no other stat is called 'wins'? Did you forget the stat called 'wins' that has been a primary component of judging pitchers for over 100 years?
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QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Sep 16, 2014 -> 01:31 PM) I was saying that for someone who thinks Kershaw is better than Sale. Oh ok
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QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Sep 16, 2014 -> 01:12 PM) Kershaw only has to deal with 8 hitters though. So do all the other pitchers in the running for the NL Cy Young.
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QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Sep 16, 2014 -> 11:45 AM) Jose Abreu very well should win Rookie of the Year and MVP. RotY is a mortal lock, but I can't squint and see any argument that he's been better than Mike Trout for MVP. Their production is close to identical offensively, but one is a plus baserunner and plays CF. It's pretty cut-and0dried. It is frustrating that we have two guys who are top-3 type contenders for the best two awards but that really they aren't going to and shouldn't win. But try to look at it in a positive way -- we have two ELITE players.
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QUOTE (iamshack @ Sep 16, 2014 -> 10:15 AM) I'd like to applaud you and Wite, among a few others, for taking the time to educate us all, and not being snarky or elitist in doing so. Thanks man, though I personally can't take credit for never being snarky
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Chris Sale does not have bones in his body, defies physics
Eminor3rd replied to witesoxfan's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 16, 2014 -> 09:03 AM) HOW DOES NO ONE ELSE THINK THAT LOOKS LIKE RANDY JOHNSON Who? Randy Williams? -
QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 16, 2014 -> 09:01 AM) If you want to look at who the most productive hitters in the game are, and solely who the most productive hitters in the game are (without considering base running or position or anything like that), we should use wOBA (weighted on-base average) and wRC+ (weighted runs created plus). It's doing essentially what JerkSticks wanted, but it's combining it into one statistic and weighting everything else appropriately as well. wOBA will take all of those fancy numbers and combine them and spit them out into a number that will appear similar to batting average or on-base percentage so that we have some frame of reference for measurement in our mind. wRC will use the information we receive from wOBA and create a context neutral amount of runs that this player would produce; once we come to this number, we then create wRC+ which compares it to the league average while controlling for park effects. That last point is an important one. So, without further adieu: wOBA: 1. Jose Abreu - .420 2. everybody else (Victor Martinez .408) wRC+ 1. Jose Abreu - 170 2. everybody else (Mike Trout, 169) Suffice to say, we can safely conclude that Jose Abreu has been the best hitter in the major leagues this year. That's pretty awesome. I'm reposting this for emphasis. I hope that everyone takes minute to get familiar with wRC+ because it's just so, so awesome. IMO, it's maybe the best stat in existence right now, in terms of answering an important more accurately than any others. To the poster named Jose Abreu, with regards to your inclination that BA/SLG should be weighted higher than OBP/baserunning: the beauty of wRC+/wOBA/other offensive inputs into WAR is that they are all linear weights-based statistics, which means that their single most tremendous advantage is that they objectively weigh run values across offensive events with incredible precision. One of the big advantages of these statistics is you don't have to wonder how many times a guy needs to get on base to make for his lack of homeruns, because it uses inputs that are based on exactly how many runs are produced through each of the events, and then scales it all to league average as a comparison point. Your question, actually, illustrates the great flaw with OPS -- it treats a point of OBP and SLG equally, when in reality, the values of both are not only significantly different, but they each fluctuate all the time based on the changing run environment. If you're citing OPS, you should really be citing wRC+. They answer the same question, wRC+ is just way more accurate. Seriously, anyone who wants to have an informed opinion on how sabermetrics likes to value offense -- whether that opinion is positive or negative -- should read up on linear weights in baseball stats because they represent what is, IMO, the biggest and most important breakthrough in public baseball analysis since 2000.
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QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 14, 2014 -> 07:59 PM) I guess you are right, but I think he had 2 bad years, right? This year and last year. I think he's had a two homer game in Baltimore as well as a game in which he had 2 triples, which is probably a team record. I'm assuming they love him in Baltimore right now. Like I was saying though, if he becomes a stud leadoff hitter/outfielder, it's time to question the Sox ability to coach/motivate players. I mean, seriously. DeAza like somebody likes to say was a "bucket of suck" for two seasons in a row in Chicago. Eh, I wouldn't say 2013 was a "bad year," just not as good as 2012 and his partial 2011. He was basically a league average bat who played slightly below average defense, sometimes holding down an up-the middle position in CF. Nothing wrong with that at all, even if the mistakes he made were of the frustrating variety and made him seem worse than he was at the end of the day. But yeah, this year he played like garbage. I think he gets too much grief around here, honestly. Yeah, he made mental errors, but I never got the sense that they were LAZY errors, just boneheaded plays that held him back from being an above-average major leaguer. But he was also really athletic and did a lot of good things too. At the end of the day, we probably won't think about him very much after this year, lol.
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QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 13, 2014 -> 02:16 PM) DeAza had that two-homer game recently and a great doubleheader yesterday. Makes me mad he didn't bring it with the Sox. Maybe we have good players but they just don't flourish in Chicago for unknown reasons. Should make it easier to trade Viciedo. De Aza just had a bad year. He was perfectly fine before that. Solid average all around player.
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QUOTE (BaconOnAStick @ Sep 13, 2014 -> 09:58 PM) I'm still uneasy about giving up on Tank. I am not.
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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 12, 2014 -> 03:11 PM) Well that's a pretty piss poor attitude to have towards drinknig for yourself. Do something fun instead! Activities include: -Assemlbing furniture -Disassempling furntiture to re-purpose pieces of furniture for other uses -Sit in lawn and drink in silence. When people speak to you, do not speak back. Just stare at them. -Alternatively, you can tell them to get the f*** off your lawn. -Alternatively to that, you can offer them a beer and make a friend. Unless the person is 12, in which case do not offer them a beer. -Play fetch with yourself. Throw a tennis ball, go and get it, and then when you fetch it, pat yourself on the head and say "WHO'S A GOOD BOY?" and treat yourself to a drink -Set up mannequins dressed like clowns all over your living spaces and then dress like one yourself and scare anybody that comes in. Drink while setting up the clowns. -Watch other stuff on TV These are just a few different ideas. Come up with your own too! Is this how you entertain yourself in ND?
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Lame. I was planning an early Friday night drinking on my couch. Now I'm going to have to go OUT to drink.
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The Adam Dunn Appreciation Thread
Eminor3rd replied to The Ultimate Champion's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Sep 12, 2014 -> 02:14 PM) A strikeout also makes it impossible to reach via base hit, error, or move a runner along/bring home a run via sacrifice, making the out either less damaging or even productive (an out can be productive if it forces the opposing manager to intentionally walk/pitch around other players to put more men on base, which in turn can lead to a bigger inning). You also took my comment out of context. Out of how many balls he actually made contact with that didn't leave the IF, how many were DP? Obviously other players will hit a lot more DPs because they put the bat on the ball. That wasn't my point. I was merely suggesting the author do his homework and compare the number of total IF groundballs off Dunn's bat to the number of times he hit right into the shift or GIDP. The author is right, most of the time the result of an Adam Dunn PA didn't result in the ball ending up in play. But when he did actually put the ball in play the vast majority of those balls were easy outs, either high pop-ups the defender could lackadaisically trot under or easy outs directly into the shift. Adam Dunn did 2 things great in his prime. Outside of his prime those things he still did but not nearly as well as in the past didn't make up for the overall s***tiness of his game. I wish there was a stat that recorded number of PA that resulted in a positive or even semi-positive outcome, because Dunn would not rank at the top of that list for sure. It's funny how the stats people love to s*** on the base hits and sacrifices and stuff, and act like a walk is as good as a hit or a home run is as good as 4 base hits. Well, no, that's not usually the case, and those things are only true some of the time depending on the specific game situation. Sometimes you just need a grinding AB, not go down on 3-4 pitches. Sometimes you just need that sac fly, or the walk you draw with RISP and 1B open does nothing in the end whereas a basehit would change the game. For the most part when Adam Dunn came up he did nothing useful. In his prime however he was so great at mashing HRs and so dependable getting on base via walk that you could overlook the shortcomings in his game. But White Sox Dunn was complete and utter garbage. Also I'm not hating, I love Dunn, just listen to what wite says. I'm just trying to even this thing out a lil bit. You Dunn lovers are taking over this board and quite honestly I find it frightening. I'm the good guy here. I'm the one in the right. You guys are the ones who are wrong. Well I think the article's point is to celebrate what an anomaly he was. I thought it did a good job of mentioned the super good and the super bad in his game. At the end of the day, he's been a fascinating player. -
The Adam Dunn Appreciation Thread
Eminor3rd replied to The Ultimate Champion's topic in Pale Hose Talk
QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Sep 12, 2014 -> 12:05 PM) More than half that piece focuses on Dunn doing things that are bad if not terrible. Why not count GIDP and compare them to total number of balls that stayed in the IF? Better yet, what is the record for hitting into the shift? If it's Dunn there's actually 4 outcomes: K, BB, HR, hit into shift. So he did three things very well his entire career: hit HR, BB, and be left-handed. It's a shame Thome's name is mentioned here as well. Unfortunately Thome (even though he'll go to the Hall and Dunn won't) probably will get the K's thrown at him all the time to the point where you forget what a great hitter he actually was. Thome could actually shorten his swing up here and there. He could also make an adjustment. One of the reasons the strikeout is LESS damaging than people tend to think (especially out of the 3rd spot in the lineup) is because it keeps you out of a double play. Dude made tens of millions hitting 450+ homers while getting on base at a career .365 clip, largely in an era of depressed offense -- he deserves an article. Just accept it, TUC. Your rage is clouding your rationale. -
The Adam Dunn Appreciation Thread
Eminor3rd replied to The Ultimate Champion's topic in Pale Hose Talk
Jayson Stark: http://espn.go.com/blog/jayson-stark/post/...f-a-kind-career -
Felix will win, but it'll be cool to see both Sale and Kluber appreciated in the media a bunch as the "contenders" leading up to the announcement.
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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 12, 2014 -> 10:35 AM) It also sounds like Giancarlo Stanton and Yoenis Cespedes (both probably an 80 power, but still). It's best to wait until the showcase and to see what the rest of the scouts think. Yeah, we don't have near enough of a precedent to have an informed opinion. Just gotta trust the org scouts on this one.
