Eminor3rd

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Sep 9, 2014 -> 11:58 AM) A couple thoughts on the Danks stuff... 1) It makes no sense to "replace" Danks with someone earning salary, it makes sense to replace Danks with Rodon who is earning the minimum. It also makes sense to replace Carroll with Noesi. The $$$ spent would need to go to a rotation upgrade at the #2 slot otherwise there's really no reason to spend it (might as well trade for a prospect/project with ability & throw him out there). Our future rotation should be: Sale-RHP-Quintana-Noesi-Rodon, and Noesi can't be that 2. We're not going to run out a 4 or especially 5 lefty rotation, s***, remember the uproar over Axelrod takign the 5th spot from Santiago? We're not doing 4 lefties, we are having 3. 2) A lot of what has been suggested here about another righty is crap, i.e. throwing money at Brandon McCarthy and the handful of innings he may pitch. I'm not sure why so many people like that idea anyway. But if you add a Shields or something along those lines, an actual #2/#3 quality starter, you are upgrading the rotation as a whole, not just replacing Danks. You would be upgrading every spot 3-5, making Q a 3 and Noesi a 4 and Rodon a 5, while getting your L-R balance. The other ideas like trading for Homer Bailey if possible, signing Latos, etc. these are a lot better than McCarthy. We need a #2 not a #4/#5 if we want to try to win anything. 3) Danks (and here we go back to the same thing I tried to get people to understand with Dunn) is guaranteed IIRC $28.5M combined over the next 2 seasons. The Sox are *obligated* to pay him, but they are not *obligated* to pitch him 150+IP during those 2 seasons. They can really do anything they want with him as long as he gets paid. So, if you can move him to another team and get that club to take on maybe $12-16M of that obligation ($6M-$8M per over 2 seasons) then you are just clearing money out, which would be wise for us. I really hope we don't go through the Dunn s*** again with Danks, but if there is even a *hint* around ST of a better pitcher/pitching prospect having to start in Charlotte or the bullpen to "work on something" so we can run Danks out there, it'll be pretty obvious what is going on. And at that point, in a sane world, if the Sox can't find any salary relief then he just goes to the pen like IIRC both Odalis & Oliver Perez had to do in recent years as lefties signed to big deals. My guess: the Sox will be whiners abotu Danks, not move him over the offseason, and Rodon will start in the pen for "innings concerns" as a means of trying to build Danks trade value for July. Which is bulls***, but I'd put good odds on that. 4) Danks reportedly received interest from the Yanks and Marlins so maybe they would hvae some level of interest. In a more radical idea, I think the perfect fit might be the Houston Astros. Not only is Danks a Texas native who came up through the Rangers system, he's also a perfect candidate for their "piggy back" system they seem to be trying to bring up to the Majors. Danks isn't much of a "durability" starter anymore, but he can definitely give you 5 innings. Also the Astros are stupid. So would they take on Danks at $6M per or so? If they would then we'd have more cash available, and even if we had to go back to the same 5th starter clusterf*** we had this year, at least there is a chance we'd pick up another project like Noesi was and have some shot at greater future value than what Danks provides. 5) Lastly the money again - we really need to stop acting like babies about this stuff. All the Sox want to do is act like babies about playing s***ty players on s***ty deals instead of paying them to go elsewhere.... well look around the league, just about every team with anything resembling a competitive payroll has to deal with this stuff at least once every few years. Bad contracts are an inescapable economic reality of the game of baseball, might as well get used to it and make performance-based decisions instead of "woe is me" emotionally charged baby whiner decisions. Even if some team offers to take Danks at $5M per for 2015-16 then you save $10M and open up a rotation slot for someone with a shot to be better. Paying Danks just to be bad accomplishes nothing, and no matter whether Danks is our #5 or Scott Carroll/heap of garbage is our #5 we're not going to be winning anything anyway. A lot of this makes a ton of sense and a lot of this is completely bonkers and makes me shake my head ("smh"). You are my favorite caricature on this board, TUC. My favorite part: "In a more radical idea, I think the perfect fit might be the Houston Astros. Not only is Danks a Texas native who came up through the Rangers system, he's also a perfect candidate for their "piggy back" system they seem to be trying to bring up to the Majors. Danks isn't much of a "durability" starter anymore, but he can definitely give you 5 innings. Also the Astros are stupid."

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Sep 9, 2014 -> 12:48 PM) OK, but I guess my point is that nobody is ever going to put Abreu at SS, so saying that Andrelton would save 60 more runs than Abreu at SS is really meaningless. If you replaced both players with guys who were replacement level players at those positions, there is not going to be a 60 run swing between the two teams. Teams allow an average of 665 runs per year. I think that article stated that 86% of run prevention is pitching and 14% is defense, so defenses are responsible for allowing 93 runs per year as a team. No single player is 60 runs better defensively than another player. Something is out of whack, here. I just haven't taken the time to figure out exactly what that is. The idea of positional adjustment is for an objective frame of reference for comparison. Without it, it's difficult to lend context to the difference between a SS with a 98 wRC+ and a 1B with a 112 wRC+. Which is better for your team? The answer is, of course, that it depends on who you're replacing. If you had to go with a run of the mill replacement at each position, the position adjustment give you a common denominator of pure production. A replacement level 1B is a better hitter than a replacement level SS, so a good hitting SS's production plays up more than a good hitting 1B's does.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Sep 9, 2014 -> 11:23 AM) It was up to date. They update it in real-time actually. I was looking at it last night at the end of the game, assuming it was up to date. It had his game scores listed, but still said 89. Must just be a short delay.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 8, 2014 -> 12:27 PM) Why WAR doesn't always add up. http://sports.yahoo.com/news/10-degrees--w...-030133203.html Dave Cameron's response to the article, complete with massive comment thread: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/a-discussio...-improving-war/

QUOTE (chw42 @ Sep 9, 2014 -> 09:47 AM) He was at 89 yesterday, the two homer game brought him up a bit. I Think Eminor3rd was using yesterday's numbers. Whoops. yeah, thanks

QUOTE (shysocks @ Sep 9, 2014 -> 08:57 AM) Prophetic. That's a mischaracterization - it looks like you're including any catchers with any plate appearances at all, in which case he is 30th out of 97. And there are guys ahead of him with 15, 20, 40 games played. The league wRC+ for catchers is 94. Flowers now sits at 96. That doesn't hit me as substantially below average. Ah, it must not have updated last night's yet -- he was sitting at 89 yesterday.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Sep 8, 2014 -> 11:48 PM) Whining sounds a hell of a lot different than, "damn it." However, if you want to play the name game... I can go down that road. There's a lot of anger boiling in me at the moment, so... Let me remain calm, request you shut your almighty mouth, and just leave it at that. Poop

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Sep 9, 2014 -> 01:16 AM) http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/pos.../true/minpa/300 Who's going to improve on Flowers from all those catchers (and might legitimately be available)? Sure, Russell Martin, but there will be 10-12 teams after him. Then you've got names like Ruiz (too old for our window), Gattis (too expensive in terms of talent to acquire and so-so defense), etc. Flowers is out OPS-ing Jason Castro and that's yet another case of why would you give up something significant like Tim Anderson/Montas/Danish to acquire what might not even be an upgrade? QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 8, 2014 -> 10:10 PM) Isn't catcher a black hole all over baseball now? Fathom's point might have been that considering the crap at catcher throughout baseball, Tyler actually may be acceptable. At least he battles. Like I said I hope he flips off all fans, including me. You can tell he's a competitor. He probably actually gets the most out of his ability unlike guys like DeAza, Viciedo, etc. Well, Flowers is ranked 30th among catchers in the MLB in wRC+ (more accurate, league adjusted version of OPS). So, he's still substantially below average, no matter what you think of catcher offense. I'm not trying to crap on the guy -- I give him credit for turning into a decent backup -- but he still represents the most obvious spot in the lineup (along with Viciedo) to try to get a guy who is average or better.

QUOTE (fathom @ Sep 8, 2014 -> 09:51 PM) Flowers has gone out and earned the starting spot for next year. I have never been his biggest fan, but it's hard to argue against him when compared to starting catchers around the league. Idk. I mean if you look at the line, it still isn't really starting caliber. .241/.298/.382 (89 wRC+) might not KILL you at C, but it's still a hole that should be upgraded. ANd it's coming with a .352 BABIP, which would be normal-ish if not for that insane 900-BABIP April he had.

Tyler the Enigma strikes yet again.

Someone teach me to like Avisail Garcia. I really want to.

Jonah Keri on the White Sox as a 2015 "sleeper": http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-the-...kees-white-sox/

QUOTE (kitekrazy @ Aug 30, 2014 -> 04:00 PM) Two too many in my world. In the entire system? We have three semi-legitimate 1B prospects across five levels of affiliated baseball, and that's two too many? You krazy, kitekrazy!

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Sep 7, 2014 -> 12:27 PM) So, who gets the title of Tank Commander this year? Last year it was Ax. Scotty Carroll

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 5, 2014 -> 11:36 PM) If he's got a fractured hand, there's really no reason to play any more. The Royals likely will be playing for keeps that series and it's stupid for Paulie to risk hurting it more. Sure if he's healthy it'd be nice to play all four games and see if he can hit a homer on his final at bat. But why risk it? I guess if he wants to risk it, it's his body. But with this being a terrible team going nowhere and no reason to play, I'd just retire now if I was Paulie. You're right, I'd rather he rest up and be 100% for Spring Training next year.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Sep 5, 2014 -> 03:08 PM) I can buy this. I just think he would be a good guy to look into. We can buy low and it won't cost a draft pick because I can't imagine they will make him a QO. The guy is still uber talented and in 2013 was on pace for a 6 fWAR season before his injury. I think you buy low, if you can, and hope he returns to that type of player. Now if somebody wants to pay him $15 million per, it won't be and shouldn't be the Sox. Oh, defintely. I'm not saying he doesn't make sense theoretically. In fact, in a way, he makes perfect sense if we treat as something of a buy-low change of scenery candidate. I'm with you there for sure.

Victor Martinez is at the age and level of fragility that when he begins to decline, it will likely be a very sharp, immediate dropoff. Someone is going to pay him coming off a year that he isn't likely to repeat even if he stays completely healthy. And it's gonna cost a draft pick, and it's going to sacrifice flexibility on the bench. He fits somewhere that he can be the final piece. If we're spending money, we need to be shopping for building blocks. He's good, but it's just not the right move for us at this juncture.

I need to work on making up some flyers to campaign for Russell Martin. Does anyone realize how good he's been hitting? 2014 batting line: .288/.408/.415, 8 HR, (139 wRC+) on an elevated but not unreasonable .339 BABIP And did I mention he's an elite defender? He's on his second consecutive 4 fWAR season. His wRC+ could regress but 40 points and he'd still be great for us. He's going to cost more than most of us think, but he is the perfect target for this team. I hereby proclaim 2015 the YEAR OF MARTIN! WITNESS!

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Sep 5, 2014 -> 02:33 PM) When you state that a team who went out on two separate occasions to try and acquire a player does not like said player, you are wrong. If they didn't like him, KW never would have picked up the phone and given the Cardinals a call. Maybe they didn't like him enough to give up what they would have had to give up, but that's far different than stating that they did not like him. I'm saying that we don't know that they tried and failed to acquire him. All we know is that there are rumors that they discussed him. Maybe they liked him on paper but then got more intel about his personality and balked. Who knows? I certainly don't. But I DO know that is a rare occasion in which we were involved in a three way deal WITH said player we were rumored to like, WHEN we desperately needed a CF, and when the centerpiece of the trade came from us -- and we still didn't end up with the guy. It's not often you know for a fact that you have what it takes to get a guy because another team got the guy on your assets. We DID give up what we had to give up, minus a couple random relievers, and we got some org filler and the right to not pay Mark Teahen instead. Given how small that return is, it's hard to believe that they weren't willing to trade it for a young pre-arb CF with upside, unless they found something out about that player that made them believe he wasn't worth the trouble. Neither you or I really know how they feel or what really was discussed in the room, I'm just saying this is WAY more evidence than we almost ever have that the Sox were able to get a guy that made sense but chose not to do it. Given that Rasmus is a substantially less attractive asset than at any time in the past, it seems to me that the ship has sailed. But we'll see -- I'll be the first to admit I'm wrong if he suits up with us.

QUOTE (thxfrthmmrs @ Sep 5, 2014 -> 01:35 PM) The best thing for the Sox is probably Detroit resigning VMart to a 4 year or more deal for over $60 mil. They already have a lot of money committed to Miggy and Verlander who will soon under perform the value of their contract. Add in a bad contract to VMart and perhaps to Scherzer or Price, they would soon become the Yankees of this division. Until the Rangers take the contract off their hands, lol. It still makes me angry that Texas made that Fielder deal. If I'm Dombrowski, I give him the curse of the QO and leave a two year deal on the table for him after he tests the market. Very few AL teams will give up a first round pick for the right to pay a 37 year old DH with bad knees for 3 years. Red Sox and Yankees certainly won't. A's and Rays certainly won't. Indians? I bet he'd choose the Tigers if it's close.

I'm just going to place this right about... right about here: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/the-begin...suring-defense/

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Sep 5, 2014 -> 11:51 AM) Football during baseball season!!!??? Must be a communist conspiracy

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Sep 5, 2014 -> 10:11 AM) Being able to beat an offer and willing to beat an offer are two different things. Doing a quick Google search, I found numerous articles stating that the Sox were also in talks after 2010 to acquire Rasmus and that Quentin was part of the proposed deal. So you're notion that they did not like him is just wrong. Again, actions speak louder than words. If you want to cite some trade rumors as making me "just wrong," you can, but the reality is we had the bullets to get him (the centerpiece of the deal WAS our bullet) and we moved $10m of dead weight contracts instead. If he wasn't worth Edwin Jackson and a couple of relievers to us before, he isn't worth anywhere close to his free agent contract to us now that he's older and more disappointing. When presented with "Colby Rasmus or $10m," we chose $10m.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Sep 5, 2014 -> 09:38 AM) According to most reports, the Sox were interested in Rasmus at the time and KW basically confirmed their interest. I remember hearing talks that KW was actually a big fan of Rasmus and had his eye on him for awhile. Who knows what else the Sox were willing to offer STL. It's not like the Jays ended up getting him straight up for Jackson. They got him for Jackson and two platoon relievers, and they got a bunch of random other relievers back. We could have beat the offer. I think this is a case of "actions speak louder than words."

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 5, 2014 -> 08:39 AM) The fact that Rasmus has now "fallen out of favor" with a pair of teams is probably going to be a big hint. We had our shot at Rasmus and passed when the front office decided they'd rather use Jackson to dump Teahen's contract. We're not going to get Rasmus, the org clearly doesn't like him.