Eminor3rd

QUOTE (fathom @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 10:03 AM) It's so difficult to imagine the Sox organization drafting a high school pitcher that high. Over the weekend, Hawk and Stoney were talking about how research showed that a high school pitcher loses about 2-3 mph when they enter professional baseball. Sure, but that's not really surprising considering that velocity decreases every year for pitchers, on average: Credit to Bill Petti for this graph and the corresponding research.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 09:02 PM) And popular opinion was wrong. (Fangraphs too.) Ok, so you're against spending money?

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 09:55 PM) Not true. The reaction to the Dunn signing was decidedly pro around here. That's because no one thought it was a stupid move.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 09:29 PM) This does not explain SS2K5's posts against spending any money. No one is against spending money. EVERYONE is against making stupid moves in free agency.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 04:41 PM) If the Sox find themselves in a situation where they need their second best starter to be better than Quintana, his contract extension should make him a valuable commodity in that pursuit. That would fall under your "super useful to any team" criteria, no? Yes, but my point is that I don't see why we need to trade him to get a better pitcher. We're going to need a good #3 also. This is where you try to sign someone or deal prospects, and that's a 2015-16 problem. This year we need to see if (1) we can depend on a Danks bounceback and (2) we have mid or back-end guys in Johnson and Rienzo going forward.

I'll take the under on the homers, over on RBI

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 01:22 PM) I'm not making any prediction.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 01:08 PM) However, this other poster named Marty34 told me that it takes 2+ years to develop a pitcher, so we should conclude that Quintana will keep getting better this year based on what he told me. Yep, and he also told us that rebuilding isn't about winning in the future, so really we should all just meet at the bar and cry about Adam Dunn.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 01:00 PM) I'm not the only one in this thread that isn't sure that Quintana is a #2 on a playoff team. Yet you're the only one in the thread that thinks it matters. The rest of us understand that he's likely about a 3 win pitcher (assuming health) being paid like a castoff free agent, and that is super useful to any team.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 11:38 AM) $24 million a year for 6 years for a pitcher over 30 isn't exactly team friendly. Just wait and see what they are going to have to pay Cabrera when he is 40 years old and the gout won't let him run to first base. lol, the gout. He DOES seem old, doesn't he? I'm comfortable with assuming that Cabrera will age 3 "Miggy Years" for every normal human year. Nine years from now, he'll be 58. But yeah, $24m/yr is market rate for a 5 win pitcher. That's not a deal, that's a retail purchase.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 11:12 AM) Athlete or not, throwing overhand, especially as often and as hard as pitchers do, is not a natural motion and the body is not meant to withstand that sort of damage. If he has god given characteristics - unusually strong tendons, ligaments, and muscles or improved natural ability for his body to regenerate and repair itself - then it is, but there's really no way to test for that. This is it ^ The reality is that we don't know how to predict pitcher injury. Jamie Moyer threw 100,000,000 pitches or 70 years before he needed TJ, and Jarrod Parker is a 23 year old sophomore who is now on his second TJ. The pitches argument Passan is making is just posturing -- Scherzer is just as likely to get hurt as any other pitcher with his injury history.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 11:18 AM) If they were sold on Quintana as a #2 why didn't they pick up a mid-rotation starter this year in free agency? My thought is they either trade for another top-of-the-rotation starter or Quintana proves to be a #2 and they sign a mid-rotation free agent. Marty, the team is not ready to compete this year. Mid-rotation free agent starters are always available and always expensive. They tend to be their most productive right when you get them, then they break down. When the team looks poised to be one starter away, then they sign that starter. Maximize the return. Minimize the pain. No matter how many times you say or imply it, there will ALWAYS be someone like Ervin Santana available in free agency. You will ALWAYS have the opportunity to pay market rate for a 2.5-win starter in the winter. There's no point in sticking your neck out to do it too early. Yes, yes, I know -- don't want to waste Chris Sale. Well Chris Sale is 25 and he's under contract for many years. You know what? If this year's crop of new guys ends up just horrible, we might be in a situation to trade him. But first, we're going to try these guys.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Mar 24, 2014 -> 09:38 PM) Change the title now... Should we trade Beckham to the Rangers? Yes. But I imagine they want someone who is healthy on OD. Beckham disappoints us yet again.

It really does need to be a National Holiday because we need to be off work.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/03/rang...nd-catcher.html Rangers Seek Depth at Second and Catcher Gordon Beckham! Go! You can have Hector Giminez too.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 07:20 AM) Even if Quintana improves, I just don't think the stuff is there for him to be that good. You can see this with his SwStr%. Sale is consistently above average in the 10.5%. Kershaw has typically been around 11% in recent years and it was a ridiculous 17.7% last year. Last year, even with an increase in SwStr%, Quintana's 8.8% was below the 9.3% league average. He could improve that and still be only about average. I honestly don't feel bad in saying that this one is going to be wrong. Unless he gets more tilt or slide on his slider to help differentiate from his cutter, he simply doesn't have the stuff capable of doing that. In fact, I'm actually expecting him to regress back to about a 2.5-3 WAR pitcher this year with his K-rate normalizing and being in the 6.75 range. Agree 100%. I think we saw his peak last year, but the improvements in his stuff are likely to be sustainable, so he should still be solid.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 07:07 AM) Has Beckham played an AB since his injury? Any talk on him playing today/tomorrow? Yesterday during the game, Hawk said that Beckham took groundballs and felt fine, but that he had yet to swing a bat.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 24, 2014 -> 06:20 PM) Is it not ownership's responsibility to grow the customer base. They're trying to do that now by creating a sustainable model for wins instead of stupid, flashy moves that impress people like you for about 19 games until you start b****ing about Adam Dunn.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 23, 2014 -> 08:39 PM) Good one Roostifer. Now compare the NBA and MLB caps. Rushing to others defense as often as you do, you're well on your way to becoming a minion. Marty, can you do me a favor and just publicly acknowledge that you're aware that baseball teams are businesses? You keep acting like you don't get it, which is frustrating, but then I realized you've never actually said that you DO get it.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Mar 24, 2014 -> 12:08 PM) Week stats: Newcomb - 8 IP 4H 0R 0ER 3BB 7K Season - 5GS 0.00 ERA 32.2 IP 14H 1R 0ER 15BB 38K Rodon - 4.2 IP 6H 8R 0ER 4BB 8K Season - 6GS 2.18 ERA 41.1 IP 33H 23R 10ER 15BB 50K Hoffman - 7 IP 6H 3R 3ER 2BB 2K Season - 6GS 4.03 ERA 38 IP 29H 20R 17ER 17BB 39K Beede - 2.2 IP 6H 11R 5ER 5BB 2K Season - 6 GS 2.06 ERA 35 IP 20H 17R 8ER 11BB 42K Brady Aikens last start was the 18th - 4.2 IP 0H 0R 0ER 1BB 12K lol 12 Ks in 4.2 IP. High School is ridiculous.

I'm 100% for this -- this was on my personal offseason wishlist. I thought it'd be a bit more money though, I wonder if his garbage spring brought the price down a bit.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 23, 2014 -> 06:14 PM) So would I, but he is still a bust. What's your point?

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 23, 2014 -> 05:44 PM) Not really.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 23, 2014 -> 05:34 PM) What is the difference? Are you joking?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 23, 2014 -> 05:31 PM) Yes, but you still said even if he couldn't play, blowing $60 million wasn't a big deal. Yes, $10m per year wasted is 33% less painful than $15m, and 60% less painful than $25m. And, given his youth, a busted Abreu is likely to be less useless than a busted Santana (who would ruin entire games by himself) or busted Hamilton (who would likely not even play because he'd be injured). Not sure why you think there's no difference. I would rather pay a bust like a league average player than I would pay him like a superstar.