Eminor3rd

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 26, 2014 -> 04:11 PM) Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jiminez are making roughly the same salary per year as Abreau. How are they being paid like stars and Abreau is being paid like a league average player? If you consider $2-4 million dollars per year "roughly the same," then yeah, it's not much difference. Santana at $14.1m, and Ubaldo at $12.5m AAV. If the Sox got Santana, I'd assume it would be at the same price since it was essentially just "choose your team" for him. You figure the Sox would beat the Orioles offer at $13m AAV at the minimum to get him.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 26, 2014 -> 01:48 PM) Again, in the Abreu thread, you said if he was a bust, $60 million wasn't going to harm the team. At least be consistent. The fact that the Sox were in on Tanaka tells you all you really need to know about their finances. Apparently JR WAS WILLING TO THROW MONEY AT HIS PROBLEMS. He threw $68 million at Abreu and in total was probably willing to go twice as much for Tanaka. You never read my response when you say this. Please read the following: NO ONE IS AGAINST SPENDING MONEY EVERYONE IS AGAINST SPENDING MONEY ON STUPID, RISKY, LOW UPSIDE DEALS Jose Abreu's contract was smart because he is being paid like a LEAGUE AVERAGE PLAYER. Ergo, his contract is easier to tolerate if it busts. An investment in talent with upside is good. The downside is limited, in context. You are the ONLY one who thinks I said that $68m doesn't matter. Truthfully, I don't even think you really think that's what I said, I think you just like to disagree with everything I post. Ervin Santana (and every other old, dead cat bounce, injury prone, flash in the pan, etc.) is a BAD INVESTMENT because there's limited or no upside, he/they are being paid like STARS instead of league-average players, and thus come with MORE downside. This is risky. This is bad. I don't know how else to explain this.

QUOTE (TheTruth05 @ Mar 26, 2014 -> 01:54 PM) What a tease. Haha no joke

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 26, 2014 -> 11:18 AM) This board is so concerned with JR checking account balance. I just wonder, what if the Yankees or Dodgers needed a 1st baseman and Abreu's price went up, what would have been the cutoff money-wise before his current can't miss, can't wait to see him in the middle of the line up would have change to the "he's never faced a pitch in the major leagues, he's not worth it, maybe when the team is a little better you could spend the money". We don't care at all how much money that JR has, it's just we're looking past that and dealing in reality. None of us know how much the Sox make, how much they have saved, ownership's ability or willingness to expand budget, balh blah etc. The reality is that there is a limit to how much the team is going to spend on payroll, and we have some frame of reference that tells us that our team is willing and able to be in the upper quarter when they feel it's necessary. This is PLENTY of information for us to like or not like deals based on financials. You can wish JR would spend endlessly if you like, but it isn't going to happen. There IS a ceiling, it's a reasonable ceiling, and therefore we don't like s***ty deals that waste money because we know there's a limit. The morality of that is completely separate from the analysis and interpretation of the deals that happen to the team. Marty's kindergarten logic dictates that we should sign overpriced players because JR should have enough money to continue throwing money at problems anyway DESPITE the fact that there is no precedent for this type of behavior. But we know that he WON'T continue to throw money at problems anyway, and therefore we should NOT sign overpriced players. Marty deals in Martyland, the rest of us are dealing in reality.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 26, 2014 -> 10:55 AM) Unless the guy sucks, and prohibits you from signing a guy when you actually need one like, you know, Adam Dunn. Exactly. And when you're talking about 32 year old middling free agent starters, the window of effectiveness is really small. You just have to wait Marty. If this team wins 80 games this year and has a hole in the rotation, you can be angry if they don't sign Ervin Santana's equivalent next year. Those guys just don't last, you can't rely on their futures.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 26, 2014 -> 10:05 AM) When did I say that? I felt it was safe to assume when you didn't respond to post #408

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 26, 2014 -> 09:47 AM) Chairman Reinsdorf should sell the team if he can't figure out a way to grow revenues. But you're against spending money on risky free agent signings now, because Adam Dunn. What do they need more revenue for?

QUOTE (fathom @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 10:03 AM) It's so difficult to imagine the Sox organization drafting a high school pitcher that high. Over the weekend, Hawk and Stoney were talking about how research showed that a high school pitcher loses about 2-3 mph when they enter professional baseball. Sure, but that's not really surprising considering that velocity decreases every year for pitchers, on average: Credit to Bill Petti for this graph and the corresponding research.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 09:02 PM) And popular opinion was wrong. (Fangraphs too.) Ok, so you're against spending money?

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 09:55 PM) Not true. The reaction to the Dunn signing was decidedly pro around here. That's because no one thought it was a stupid move.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 09:29 PM) This does not explain SS2K5's posts against spending any money. No one is against spending money. EVERYONE is against making stupid moves in free agency.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 04:41 PM) If the Sox find themselves in a situation where they need their second best starter to be better than Quintana, his contract extension should make him a valuable commodity in that pursuit. That would fall under your "super useful to any team" criteria, no? Yes, but my point is that I don't see why we need to trade him to get a better pitcher. We're going to need a good #3 also. This is where you try to sign someone or deal prospects, and that's a 2015-16 problem. This year we need to see if (1) we can depend on a Danks bounceback and (2) we have mid or back-end guys in Johnson and Rienzo going forward.

I'll take the under on the homers, over on RBI

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 01:22 PM) I'm not making any prediction.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 01:08 PM) However, this other poster named Marty34 told me that it takes 2+ years to develop a pitcher, so we should conclude that Quintana will keep getting better this year based on what he told me. Yep, and he also told us that rebuilding isn't about winning in the future, so really we should all just meet at the bar and cry about Adam Dunn.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 01:00 PM) I'm not the only one in this thread that isn't sure that Quintana is a #2 on a playoff team. Yet you're the only one in the thread that thinks it matters. The rest of us understand that he's likely about a 3 win pitcher (assuming health) being paid like a castoff free agent, and that is super useful to any team.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 11:38 AM) $24 million a year for 6 years for a pitcher over 30 isn't exactly team friendly. Just wait and see what they are going to have to pay Cabrera when he is 40 years old and the gout won't let him run to first base. lol, the gout. He DOES seem old, doesn't he? I'm comfortable with assuming that Cabrera will age 3 "Miggy Years" for every normal human year. Nine years from now, he'll be 58. But yeah, $24m/yr is market rate for a 5 win pitcher. That's not a deal, that's a retail purchase.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 11:12 AM) Athlete or not, throwing overhand, especially as often and as hard as pitchers do, is not a natural motion and the body is not meant to withstand that sort of damage. If he has god given characteristics - unusually strong tendons, ligaments, and muscles or improved natural ability for his body to regenerate and repair itself - then it is, but there's really no way to test for that. This is it ^ The reality is that we don't know how to predict pitcher injury. Jamie Moyer threw 100,000,000 pitches or 70 years before he needed TJ, and Jarrod Parker is a 23 year old sophomore who is now on his second TJ. The pitches argument Passan is making is just posturing -- Scherzer is just as likely to get hurt as any other pitcher with his injury history.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 11:18 AM) If they were sold on Quintana as a #2 why didn't they pick up a mid-rotation starter this year in free agency? My thought is they either trade for another top-of-the-rotation starter or Quintana proves to be a #2 and they sign a mid-rotation free agent. Marty, the team is not ready to compete this year. Mid-rotation free agent starters are always available and always expensive. They tend to be their most productive right when you get them, then they break down. When the team looks poised to be one starter away, then they sign that starter. Maximize the return. Minimize the pain. No matter how many times you say or imply it, there will ALWAYS be someone like Ervin Santana available in free agency. You will ALWAYS have the opportunity to pay market rate for a 2.5-win starter in the winter. There's no point in sticking your neck out to do it too early. Yes, yes, I know -- don't want to waste Chris Sale. Well Chris Sale is 25 and he's under contract for many years. You know what? If this year's crop of new guys ends up just horrible, we might be in a situation to trade him. But first, we're going to try these guys.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Mar 24, 2014 -> 09:38 PM) Change the title now... Should we trade Beckham to the Rangers? Yes. But I imagine they want someone who is healthy on OD. Beckham disappoints us yet again.

It really does need to be a National Holiday because we need to be off work.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/03/rang...nd-catcher.html Rangers Seek Depth at Second and Catcher Gordon Beckham! Go! You can have Hector Giminez too.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 07:20 AM) Even if Quintana improves, I just don't think the stuff is there for him to be that good. You can see this with his SwStr%. Sale is consistently above average in the 10.5%. Kershaw has typically been around 11% in recent years and it was a ridiculous 17.7% last year. Last year, even with an increase in SwStr%, Quintana's 8.8% was below the 9.3% league average. He could improve that and still be only about average. I honestly don't feel bad in saying that this one is going to be wrong. Unless he gets more tilt or slide on his slider to help differentiate from his cutter, he simply doesn't have the stuff capable of doing that. In fact, I'm actually expecting him to regress back to about a 2.5-3 WAR pitcher this year with his K-rate normalizing and being in the 6.75 range. Agree 100%. I think we saw his peak last year, but the improvements in his stuff are likely to be sustainable, so he should still be solid.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 07:07 AM) Has Beckham played an AB since his injury? Any talk on him playing today/tomorrow? Yesterday during the game, Hawk said that Beckham took groundballs and felt fine, but that he had yet to swing a bat.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 24, 2014 -> 06:20 PM) Is it not ownership's responsibility to grow the customer base. They're trying to do that now by creating a sustainable model for wins instead of stupid, flashy moves that impress people like you for about 19 games until you start b****ing about Adam Dunn.