Eminor3rd

QUOTE (SoxFan562004 @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 05:03 PM) Yeah, Votto point obviously makes it make no sense, I was watching from fringe, looks like Rangers were part of it before he cut it down to 3, just mental lapse! Ahhh, that adds up better

QUOTE (SoxFan562004 @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 04:42 PM) I saw it in one of the stories threads, but weren't the Reds one of the teams mentioned that were in on him?

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 03:58 PM) Right. League average 1B put up a .776 OPS last year. An Adam Laroche. And what does a guy like that get on the FA market (requiring a loss of draft pick)? 12 million a year. Granted, Laroche isn't locking up a 6 year commitment, but Abreu is only 26. $10 -$12 million for a league average firstbaseman's 26 - 32 years is a pretty reasonable deal. Obviously there's a small chance he's a total bust, but I doubt it. Some chance he's a star, but if not, the deal is fine for some who's just solid. This ^

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 08:32 AM) I don't believe Alejandro De Aza can learn how to steal bases. (show Alexei's improvement) Yeah BUT HOW DID HE DO IN THE FIELD It's entirely possible, in that you can't DISPROVE it, that a player's defensive and baserunning skills are fueled by the SAME pool of mana. If this is true, and also the law of conservation of mass and energy is true, we can assume that any improvement ADA would make in one category would necessarily make him worse in the other. As far as explaining him getting worse at both? He would have to have been selling his mana for drugs or something.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 02:17 AM) What is the downward OPS/WAR correction from that Boston Red Sox offense to the White Sox, where there would be a lot less protection and definitely more offensive production expected...more pressure to earn his contract? There wouldn't be any correction -- WAR is based on context-neutral offensive statistics and is thus inherently adjusted for league and offensive environment, so it's safe to compare results from team to team. As far as lineup protection goes, it's among the most heavily researched controversies in sabermetrics today. People have tried very hard to find an effect for it, but no one has been able to do so. At least among sabermetricians, the current consensus is that lineup protection is a myth. I admit that it really does feel like it should be important intuitively, but the studies I've read have been pretty compelling. I guess it's more accurate to say that lineup protection does not have a significant effect on the offensive outcomes of a player -- it's still possible that there are several actual effects happening on the field that just happen to cancel each other out. It just doesn't end up with a player hitting better or worse. I have no idea how to tell if he'd respond significantly to changing levels of pressure. I guess that's just something the team has to try to gauge when getting to know him. EDIT: Once again didn't see that wite already said this. I do this s*** with email, too. I have a bunch to read and I just take them one by one only to realize that there have been more emails further down in my pile that have changed the situation. I'm not very effective as a person, overall.

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 09:30 AM) I am glad the White Sox are rid of Jake Peavy. Interesting.

I don't know guys... if his true talent is 2013 Salty, he could be a real solid contributor for several years. He'll only be 29 next year, and he just put up a 3.7 WAR season. A lot of that is from above average defense. I'd pay $8m a year for 3-4 WAR for the next 4 years without blinking.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 04:33 PM) We NEED him worst than any of the other teams. I know Houston is a worse team, but he doesn'e help Houston like he helps us. I'm more afraid of the Rangers nabbing him.

QUOTE (Tex @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 02:58 PM) Perhaps it is the one stat that incorporates or covers that catch all we call "intangibles"? Where else would you find a stat that shows his teamates play just a little bit harder when he is on the mound? Or worse, the guy that his teammates seem to take the day off with? I could be, and mostly am, convinced that W-L is the least valuable of the stats we find on the back of a baseball card. I haven't been convinced yet that we should throw it out. Yeah that's a tough one, but I think looking at run support and UZR or fielding percentage while a guy is on the mound would still be more useful for that, because at least that does a better job of stripping out the opposing team's influence.

QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 03:29 PM) Man that is a lot of money for such an unproven one-way player. But a Abreu-Garcia-Viciedo middle of the order could be dynamic if they meet their potential. I'll take it because it fills such a huge hole for us for the next 5 or so years.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 03:39 PM) Nate Jones really did have a great, great year which was snake bitten by bad luck. 4.15 ERA off of a 2.64 FIP. Crazy. 62.5% LOB rate, whoops.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 03:27 PM) Let's take into consideration that closers are typically the best arms in the bullpen. Then let's consider that him being a top 10 closer would logically make him a top 10 reliever in the game. If he fell off to an average closer, that would still make him a good reliever. You can believe what you want to believe, but I truly do believe he is one of the best 15-20 relievers in the game. He's pretty damn solid. A guy who could fall off and become a AAAA arm at any point is Lindstrom. To add to this, FWIW, Addison Reed ranked 13th of all RP in fWAR last year, ahead of guys like Aroldis Chpaman, Jason Grilli, and Mariano Rivera: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0 Regardless of how you feel about fWAR, it is a stat based on FIP, which is designed to strip context (run support, bad defense, etc.) out of the pitcher's performance. This makes some intuitive sense considering how bad our defense was. EDIT: Also, #8? Nate Jones

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 03:16 PM) In reality then, isn't he dangerously close to being just another pen arm considering his velocity arrow is pointing down. Yeah, but so is almost every reliever in baseball. VERY few elite closers that have long, sustained success.

QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 01:58 PM) Wasn't that Major League 2? And wasn't he cured by looking at a Victoria's Secret catalog? Now we know what our defense needs to do in Spring Training!

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 02:14 PM) Do you believe Addison Reed is an elite closer? No. But it has nothing to do with his save percentage. And I don't think we need to find an elite closer for 2014. Reed also has more upside, and player dev should be a priority for next year.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 01:10 PM) That's all well and good, but that 83% save percentage says maybe he should keep the velocity, B! 83% save percentage says nothing at all, unfortunately, in terms of predicting future success. Especially given he was in front of the worst defense in the league.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 12:18 PM) We've seen this pen in in action and it wasnt all that impressive. Reed is close to being just another pen arm, Jones is just another pen arm, and Crain is coming off of a shoulder injury. Webb has the stuff to be closer, we'll see. Here's the problem, though: bullpens are the most unpredictable group of guys in baseball form year to year. This evidence is everywhere. Elite bullpens come out of nowhere each year, and formerly elite bullpens crash and burn. Their use is so context-driven and their appearance make up such small samples, that treating them as guaranteed is asking for failure, What is important is that you have some guys with good stuff and are coachable, and you employ them the best you can. These guys all have good stuff. There's a ton of upside as well as downside, but for our 99 loss team, I don;t want them blowing money here.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 01:53 PM) (He gets one more year.) Agreed, with the caveat being that he can lose his job to an internal candidate if that's how it rolls.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 01:39 PM) Giving Granderson 3 years and $45 million is crazy. Even though the White Sox don't know how to draft, I hate losing a second round pick for Salty AND paying him $36 million over 4 seasons. One of the ideas suggested was Chris Young in CF. It also gave the impression Morales was going to turn down a 1 year deal from the M's for $14 million. That means Morales is probably out of the Sox price range and it would be better to gamble on Abreu, even though I still believe he's going to be a bust. Ellsbury and Choo, forget it, based on the Pence deal. Same thing with McCann. I would rather swing for the fences (Abreu/Cespedes/Puig/Soler/Viciedo) than go with players like Granderson, Salty and Morales who are nice/decent additions but aren't going to make the White Sox playoff contenders. Same with Andre Ethier, for example. And, finally, is DeAza actually a good deal at $4.4 million? How would other teams perceive him on the trade market? As a starter for 4th outfielder. Because it's not wise to pay Jeff Keppingers and DeAza's of the world that kind of money to be bench depth/back-ups. If you're a playoff contender, it's a different story. If De Aza is a starter, he's worth that easy. Market generally pays ~$5m per WAR, and he's can be expected to produce 2 WAR safely. As a bench player, probably not, unless he's the strong part of a platoon. To me, Granderson/Morales or any other clear short term rental is out of the question, not because we don't have the payroll, but because of the cost of a draft pick. I'd give up the pick to get my starting C for the next five years, but not for a has-been to bridge a gap and make the fans think we're trying.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 12:39 PM) Does anyone want to throw out a legit guess at Salty's contract? If he's talking 3/$30 or more, then that could certainly be worth turning down a qualifying offer. I can see the bidding go up to 4/$40m Under the right circumstances, I'd be comfortable with us going there.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 11:04 AM) http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseb...0,4924051.story Adolfo now....has dropped Zapata officially, it seems A glowing Tribune puff piece on a Sox prospect....for now at least. Buddy Bell quotes always scare me, btw. I do not support the dropping of Zapata!

I wonder, too, if this might be better if we get Abreu also. If Abreu costs us $8-10m/yr and clogs 1B, giving Salty $8m/yr to stick at C would leave us with more flexibility than giving McCann $15-18m/yr to start at C and eventually clog 1B and force Abreu to DH. Salty/Abreu leaves a spot open for Dunn next year and the chance to sign any bat-only player to fill DH after that -- or use the DH spot as a rotating rest thing.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 10:28 AM) Has anyone heard any update on Crain? Seems to me if his shoulder still wouldn't permit him to pitch by the end of the season, he may have a serious issue going on in there. Yeah, he never sounded to concerned in the interviews I saw during the year, but shoulder problems that keep you out that long often end up being career enders. I wonder if the silence isn't a bad sign, since he's up for a contract.

MLBTraderumors suggested that the White Sox might target Salty in their Offseason Outlook piece: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/offs...-white-sox.html I've been all about going for McCann, especially if we miss Abreu, because he can provide substantial value down the road, even if he needs to move off of C in a couple seasons. But the more time passes, the more I think he's going to be more expensive than the Sox would/should pay. And while Flowers/Phegley are young, I haven't seen anything at all to suggest that either is likely to end up as an above average ML regular. So now I'm wondering if Jarrod Saltalamacchia might not be a good get for us. My perception of him has never been that good, but taking a closer look, he's somewhat quietly had a really nice season. PROS: - He's 28 - He's left-handed - He grades out as an above average defensive catcher - MLBTR suggested he might cost something like 4yr/$36m - He's got a respectable walk rate (~8%), which finally led to decent on base numbers this year CONS: - He is ATROCIOUS against lefties - He's coming off a breakout season. Tough to tell if it's improvement or a fluke - He strikes out a TON (~30%) I'm thinking you could platoon him and thus still take a decent look at Flowers or Phegley. He wouldn't be a pick up that would swing us into contention by himself, but since he's relatively young, he might be a good building block. What do you think? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...&position=C

QUOTE (Tex @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 10:10 AM) I believe you have to look at the complete picture instead of looking at any stat in isolation. While I believe we've historically over used W-L record, I also believe there is a danger in underusing it. When you think about a pitcher that "gets the job done" are you thinking WHiP or WiNS? Do you want a guy that shouldn't be winning but somehow it keeps happening (winning ugly) or a pitcher that is pitching much better than his record and appears snake bit (losing pretty)? We know that both are due to regress to the mean. And eventually you want the guy with better overall stats, but at that moment . . . I think you're totally right about looking at tons of things, I'm just not sure that W-L really has anything to add to that equation. I think it's easy for people (myself included) to get caught up on the name -- after all, wins are all that matters -- but team wins and pitcher wins are different statistics. It's team wins that matter, and with the number of no decisions increasing every year, tWins and pWins are becoming less and less linked. I guess I'd put it this way: what do pWins tell us about a pitcher's performance that some other stat doesn't tell us better? Maybe the whole concept of "single best statistic" isn't even valid -- if we assume that we need to use several numbers, where does pWins fit in? I'm not sure it does at all.