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QUOTE (scs787 @ Oct 19, 2013 -> 05:09 PM) And his club house presence, which I think this team is missing. Beckham hit .210 w/RISP compared to to .338 for Phillips. Like I said, I'm certainly not calling for it. It was brought up and I said I wouldn't hate it. I'll just say this again, maybe it got buried in my last post: performance with RISP has little to no correlation with future performance with RISP Do you know what Brandon Phillips' career average with RISP is? .284 Do you know what Brandon Phillips' career overall average is? .271 Fluctuation are all because of small sample data. Given enough time, guys look the same with RISP as they do all the other times.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFan05 @ Oct 19, 2013 -> 10:06 AM) He's a career ..280 hitter and he hits very well with RISP. Not to mention his defense is solid. A solid-but-not-great batting average is not nearly as important as OBP/SLG numbers. Performance with RISP has been shown, without fail, not to accurately predict future performance with RISP. Gordon Beckham's defense is also solid. Career numbers are important, but with a guy that's entering his mid 30's, recency has a stronger effect, and you can expect performance to decline much more often than it improves or remains steady. And he's got a contract attached to him that will overpay him going forward.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFan05 @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 09:46 PM) Because he's Brandon Phillips. Can hit leadoff, second, third, fourth, even fifth. Do you realize what he hit this year? .261/.310/.396. We don't want a .310 OBP batting first or second, and we don't want a .396 SLG batting third, fourth, or fifth.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 05:59 PM) Right so first of all, I'm nowhere near a baseball expert, I'm relatively new to the sport but I thought this would be a fun challenge to try to get myself used to payroll stuff, WAR, evaluating talent etc. So I did some reading, here and elsewhere, on free agent talent/potential trade talent/what potential signings might be paid, and came up with this plan, presuming Abreu is done and dusted. (Bear in mind that I have little or no clue on batting order and who you should bat where.) - Sign Tanaka for 6/$54m + $35m posting fee. - Trade Santiago and Beckham for Headley, sign him to 5/$75m. - Sign Saltalamacchia to 3/$36m. - Non-tender Gordon Beckham. 1. De Aza, CF 2. Ramirez, SS 3. Dunn, DH 4. Abreu, 1B 5. A. Garcia, RF 6. Headley, 3B 7. Viciedo, LF 8. Semien, 2B 9. Saltalamacchia, C Sale Tanaka Quintana Johnson Danks Payroll 2014 (assuming all new contracts are equally spaced, like Danks'): Dunn - 15 Headley - 15 Danks - 14.25 Saltalamacchia - 12 Arb players - approx 12 from what I can make out Ramirez - 9.5 Tanaka - 9 (almost 15 if you factor in his posting fee over the course of his contract) Quintana/Johnson/bullpen/utility player minimum - 8 (based on what seems to be the standard $500k for pre-arb players + Lindstrom's buyout) Keppinger - 4 Sale - 3.5 So that'd be a little over $101m, or $107m if you counted Tanaka's posting fee as $6m per year. That'd leave room of $18m/$12m on last year's $119m payroll which you could spend some or all of it on bullpen free agents/trying to upgrade maybe De Aza or Viciedo. But even as it is above, compared to last year's roster I think you'd be talking almost certainly (large) upgrades at 1B, C and 3B, with strong potential upgrades at 2B (I like Semien over Beckham) and second starter (I like Tanaka to have a better ERA than Peavy anyway). And then, depending on your viewpoint, a possible downgrade with Johnson over Santiago (though I really like Erik). From what I read it seems as though a lot of Saltalamacchia's improvement is down to BABIP and so he probably seems due for a regression. I'd much rather McCann (even though he seems to be roughly set in a pretty solid decline year on year), but obviously considering my plan has two more big salary splashes after Abreu that'd be off the table, or even Pierzynski, but given his age and the likelihood of the Sox competing straight away it's probably not wise. Even if Saltalamacchia regressed and wasn't quite worth his contract in terms of WAR, it should be a distinct upgrade from the catastrophe at catcher this season. I know the title says realistic and this probably isn't really realistic since the thought seems to be that Abreu was the big free agency splash (I saw Merkin saying something along those lines), as well as the doubt that the Sox would spend so much money on a starting pitcher, given how the starting pitching is seen as the least of the team's worries. But I certainly think it's a heavy improvement on last year (I would say all 5 of the new hitters over last year's pre-trade deadline regular line-up would be place to hit better, and I think the rotation could outperform what last year's did before Peavy was traded. That'd leave the bullpen to sort out, with the extra dollars from last year's payroll, I haven't really read up too much about bullpen options. I guess the alternative would be to avoid plugging a hole for the sake of it and to wait until free agency next year, again I haven't really read too much on 2014 free agents. I'm most likely talking s*** overall and have probably left stuff out in terms of salary, but overall thoughts, fellas? It's a good team, but that would be insane if we landed both Abreu and Tanaka. JR is obviously letting the budget go a bit on international stuff, but I cannot see him throw $50m at an NPB team just to sign another pitcher. Also, I think $100m is probably our absolute ceiling for next year, and I don't necessarily think it shouldn't be. When you throw so many guys together at once, sometimes it take them a bit to get used to playing with each other -- that's a ton of money to risk without having a clue if it's going to pay off. For example, is Abreu legit? I'm not sure I'd commit all that money if I wasn't sure if I was going to be a bat short or not. Third, I'm not sure why everyone seems to think the Padres would trade Headley for Beckham and Santiago. Beckham is practically worthless, and while Santiago should have some solid value, don't you think someone would best that offer? If that's the best they can do, I'd have to believe they'd hold onto him and hope he could re-establish value at the deadline. But, I like the thought process. I'd make all of those transactions in a vacuum, I just don't think they're really realistic. Also, are you non-tendering Beckham or trading him?

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 04:19 PM) Politics and s*** QUOTE (almagest @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 04:20 PM) Wildly implausible trades and lineups And what are these things, I ask, if not fuel for making fun of each other?

QUOTE (scs787 @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 04:04 PM) But, but, everyone will make fun of me I should just check the facts first instead of looking it up mid reply. If we aren't making fun of each other, what will we post about?

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 03:21 PM) I wish I had been paying attention, I totally would have said that I'm really good at doing this at the exact same time you were posting. lol

QUOTE (scs787 @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 03:05 PM) Leury(or Beckham if is Semien is the starter at 2B) can play all 3 INF spots, and Danks can play all 3 OF spots. The Kepp/Gillaspie platoon would have to be blown up though, which everyone wants anyway. EDIT: man lately everything I've been saying already gets said while I'm in the process of posting. wite is a pro at that.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 02:50 PM) Seems like a waste of a roster spot to me. They both only play 1b, and Abreu should be there most of the time. This was my thought as well. With all the pitchers we keep nowadays, there's little room for anyone on the bench that doesn't have some versatility.

I won't mind if we sign no more big FAs. I'd like to see a trade of some young pitching for young hitting of some kind, and then fill in the gaps with trqadeable vets on 1 year deals.

When a guy swings at so many bad pitches, you wonder if it's his approach or his eye. What I saw out of Viciedo this year was a lot of awkward pitch taking, leading me to believe that he was legitimately working on his approach. Alas, he still ended up taking a bunch of meatballs and swinging at a bunch of crap. This makes me fear that he just doesn't have the ability to recognize pitches fast enough, and he has to be a guess hitter. Guess hitters with good hands are going to look real good for stretches, and real bad for others. Unfortunately, the bad stretches are going to be much longer and much more frequent. The pitchers aren't guessing.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 02:07 PM) He did look better in the 2nd half. Right, but really he looked more like 2012 in the second half, which is better results with the same plan. I think the problem is that his guess approach is simply not something we can trust for predictable success. If balls are falling into his bat, he's going to be good, but more often than not, that isn't going to be the case.

What gets ME about Viciedo is his career 98 wRC+ and below average defense, lol. What is there to defend about him? He's been pretty consistently bad. You can say he hit 25 homers in a season, but that's where literally everything positive ends. He's clearly got talent, but an entire season of no progress/arguably backward progress in 2013 does NOT bode well for him reaching his upside. He looks like he just isn't capable of recognizing pitches well enough.

QUOTE (JPN366 @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 01:50 PM) "...He's no Maurice Gartrell..." Caulfield12 He's no Gerardo Parra, that's for sure.

QUOTE (JPN366 @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 01:53 PM) I get that. I just think McCann got all asshole showy about it instead of calling for a beaning or just saying something to him. Standing in front of the plate is just as bad as anything. That's fair.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 01:51 PM) What is this, West Side Story? If you don't want Gomez to prance around, then don't let him hit home runs off you. Guarding home plate from a guy who just hit a home run is what Ham Porter would do in the Sandlot. This is MLB, that's ridiculous. Again, watch the clip. It's not prancing that made everyone mad. He was yelling what we can assume to be insults at everyone on the diamond, lol. Maybe McCann is a jerk and Gomez was justified. I'm just saying you can't literally yell insults at the opposing team all the way around the bases and then be surprised when the last guy you run past is confronting you at the end. I just think we can't judge McCann on that one incident. EDIT: I also don't think him being in front of the plate meant much of anything. He could have been a step past the plate and had the same effect. I didn't see it as him "blocking" the plate so much as moving into his path so he could end up all up in his face.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 12:42 PM) It's a risk, but his contract is not that outrageous in this day and age. If he's pathetic, sure, the Sox will be stuck with him a long long time. But the Sox are desperate and currently have some money to spend. At this stage, he's probably worth the risk. Now it's time to improve C and 3B and one outfield spot and add a reliable bullpen guy while hoping/pleading Semien takes over for Beckham. You've never posted anything I agree with more

QUOTE (ozzfest @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 12:25 PM) The White Sox have never hit the jackpot in free agency. Ever. Why is this any different? If this (Abreu) guy were as good as people say, wouldn't the Yankees, or Giants, or Rangers, or Cubs been all over him and they would have definitely been willing to outbid the White Sox. Paying him twice as much as Puig.....I'm skeptical. Not trying to be a buzzkill, but there needs to be a separate discussion here of just how unproven this guy is. The White Sox have never been the smartest free agent seekers....If something is too good to be true...it is. I guarantee this guy isn't an all star. Wrong question, sir. Why, instead, is it the same?

QUOTE (JPN366 @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 01:36 PM) This sanctifying of baseball has to stop. It's pretentious. I actually totally agree with this. I just don't think anyone would have put up with what Gomez was doing, in any similar situation. What McCann did in that specific incident, to me, had nothing to do with baseball. It was just him standing up to a guy who was insulting his friends.

QUOTE (JPN366 @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 01:31 PM) Blah, who cares? Lol what? I'm not judging their history, I'm just saying anyone would have stepped up and said something to Gomez after what Gomez just did. Maybe Gomez was the good guy or maybe not, but the fact that McCann stood up and got in his face isn't damning, IMO. Again, just from watching the clip.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 11:54 AM) The problem is this isnt the only time this season that McCann acted like that(Jose Fernandez). Whatever, you dont like it, I dont care. I want McCann, asshole or not, I just want that crap to stop. Its all good. Yeah, I mean I'm not saying you're wrong about him. I don't really know. I just don't think he was so far out of line in that Gomez incident. I think the media blew that up in a weird way.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 11:48 AM) I saw exactly what happened, and I know that Gomez and Maholm had a history. Maholm has beaned Gomez 3 times in 25 at bats, and Gomez in turn is absilutely crushing him to the tune of like .480. It isnt like Gomez just randomly started talking s***. Regardless, nobody annointed the Braves or McCann as the policeman of the unwritten rules of baseball. You dont want Gomez to talk s***? Dont bean him, and dont let him beat you. Pretty simple. McCann and AJ are both assholes, that i dont dispute, but not the same way. History or not, you can't scream at the pitcher literally the entire time around the bases and not expect someone to start yelling back. Whether he crossed the plate or not was irrelevant. To me, it was not unlike every other time guys start yelling at one another and the benches clear to nothing happening.

QUOTE (bbilek1 @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 11:08 AM) You're not getting his point. If we stand pat from here the payroll would drop ~50 millionish from OD '13. Friend, you are not getting MY point I'm not saying they will or should stand pat, but there is a huge difference between standing pat and adding a $100m contract. I'm just saying it's unprecedented (I think ) for a team to break its record for largest contract twice in a single offseason, and it's even stranger coming off of a 99 loss season. I'm just saying we should temper our expectations. Throwinjg around money like never before tends to be a little video-gamey for teams to do.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 11:07 AM) AJ never did that stuff. He may have talked s***, but he didnt stop a player from crossing homeplate because he celebrated a homerun. AJ was an agitator, not a policeman. I don't think you guys actually saw what happened. It had nothing to do with celebration. Gomez was directly confronting the pitcher verbally.

QUOTE (JPN366 @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 10:44 AM) Sticking up for you team at any cost is one thing. Getting indigant at a player about admiring a homerun is pointless. Did you watch the clip? Gomez was yelling at the pitcher all the way around the bases