Eminor3rd

QUOTE (kwill @ Jan 10, 2011 -> 05:03 PM) Stop trying to sell me car insurance. Hahahaha I thought that too, assumed it was just me.

I'd like to see some sort of data on the success of bouncing pitchers back and forth (which I'm sure doesn't exist because it would be impossible to gather) before I felt strongly either way. I'm just not convinced in the viability of the strategy solely from cherry-picking a couple examples of one-in-a-million freaks of nature like Santana and Smoltz.

http://bloggingfromthebleachers.wordpress....stics-part-two/ The tables aren't pasting very well, my apologies. Link above. Interesting to see the Sox pitching staff (MB, Danks, Floyd, Jackson, Peavy in the post above) coming out so mediocre in terms of the standard DIPS-like rate stats, but so totally elite in terms of bWAR. The likely explanation for this highlights one major strength of our rotation that often gets overlooked: the propensity to pitch a ton of innings. If you really think about it, our guys are really good at (1) not getting blown out of games early, and (2) staying off the DL, Peavy notwithstanding. What does this mean? For one, it means we'll do a good job of protecting the bullpen, hopefully minimizing the impact of it becoming worse this offseason. It also means that if someone DOES get hurt, it significantly diminishes the value of the group as a whole. Obviously, there a a million different ways to rank and evaluate pitching rotations, but I thought the post above raised an interesting thought.

QUOTE (beckham15 @ Jan 8, 2011 -> 03:33 PM) we already have that in Chris Sale You know, I may be in the minority, but I really hope Sale starts the season in Charlotte. The reason is because he clearly isn't going to be throwing as hard as a starter, and I'd like to see him test his "starter repertoire" on the AAA guys before bringing it to the majors. I'd just hate to see him get pounded a couple times early on and hurt his confidence or start trying ridiculous mechanical things to accommodate.

Seems to me like we have our team now (pending the Ohman physical). What other rumors out there seem realistic? Do we still think CQ gets moved?

Even without Sale, this is a very adequate bullpen for the AL Central. Good move, it's cheap and gives us options.

QUOTE (DOWNTOWN PANTHER @ Jan 7, 2011 -> 10:22 AM) Disgruntled fan??? My team won the NL Central last year. I think I speak on behalf of the Reds fans when I say that not having Dunn is a good thing. For the Reds at leat. I think we can politely agree to disagree. All I can say is lets hear your take on your 56 Million dollar man come July. I think you may be taking this a bit too serious. .380 or so OBP is elite these days, and plays nicely on a high-power offense that's low on OBP. I don't see how this is possibly a bad move. Sorry, man, not sure what's making you so upset about Dunn, but he just made our team a LOT better.

I think the Cubs will want to keep him as depth. I mean you never know what Carlos Silva is going to do.

QUOTE (Paint it Black @ Jan 6, 2011 -> 10:09 PM) Serious question and want to see where people stand: Omar Vizquel Y/N? For me it's an easy No. I agree that at first it seems like an easy no -- slick defense light-hitter. But then you look at the numbers and... doesn't he have the most hits of any SS in history or something? I feel like a plus-plus defender who happens to have the most hits in his position's history HAS to be in, right?

QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Jan 6, 2011 -> 12:28 PM) It's awesome to see Frank mentioned in there as one of the greatest 1B's ever. Posnanski is definitely a Frank Thomas fan. There's an article somewhere of Posnanski making the case that Frank should be a slam dunk first balloter.

QUOTE (Pale Sox @ Jan 6, 2011 -> 02:10 AM) The idea that Alomar was a "negative" defender statistically really puts a damper in how I value statistic defensive metrics. Darn statistical evidence getting in the way of the actual truth.

QUOTE (Pale Sox @ Jan 5, 2011 -> 07:33 PM) One of the first comments on that article basically explains Dunn's changed approach, explaining the Nats hitting coach wanted him to have a more aggressive approach. I remember the Reds did the same thing when he first came up for a couple of years, and he struggled then too. Hopefully Walker leaves him alone. Here's the article the fangraphs commenter linked. http://www.masnsports.com/the_goessling_ga...roach-work.html I agree. If he hits 40 homers when he's being patient and walking a lot, and he hits 40 homers when he's aggressive and strikes out a lot, I think I'll take the former.

I've only played Baseball Mogul, I've always wondered if I wanted to get into OOTP.

Just some January reading: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a...d-gis-new-digs/ Adam Dunn and His New Digs by Matt Klaassen - January 5, 2011 When Adam Dunn signed with the White Sox earlier this offseason for four years and $56 million dollars, I generally agreed with those like Dave Cameron who saw it as perhaps a slight overpayment, but reasonable given that Dunn will be moving to a park that favors his prodigious power and to a team and league that will finally allow him to spend most of his time at his natural position — designated hitter. I generally still agree with the assessment. However, there are some things worth watching as Dunn begins his in Chicago in relation to his shift in league, position, park, and his recent plate approach. What better to write about on Hall of Fame Announcement Day than a player who signed more than a month ago? Dunn is a force on offense, and all decent projections will reflect that. There are a lot of “moving parts” involved in making those adjustments, however, and while more sophisticated projection systems have ways of dealing with many (though not all) of those factors, the more of those parts that are involved the more dicey things might seem. So rather than citing a projection, let’s go over some of these factors. To begin with the most general points, Dunn is slated to be a full-time designated hitter for the first time in his career. Much has been made over Dunn’s defensive skills, or, more precisely, the lack thereof, so I won’t go over that ground again. Suffice it to say that the move to DH certainly won’t hurt his overall value. However, it is worth noting that while some players take to the DH just fine, there is evidence that most players have difficulty hitting off the “bench,” as it were, so there is a possibility that Dunn’s offensive production will be depressed a bit by the move. We don’t know how he will adjust as he’s never DHed full-time before (having spent his entire prior career in National League), so for now we’re better off assuming that he’s like “most players” in relation to how being a DH will effect his hitting. The second general point is related — the move to the American League. Perhaps Dunn will adjust well, perhaps he won’t. Pitching in the American League is generally considered to be stronger than in the National League, and that might be reason to temper our expectations for Dunn’s hitting going forward as well. Both of these are general points, and neither are enough to say that Dunn won’t be a very good hitter for the White Sox, but they are both points that have to be considered. There are also specific curiosities with regard to Dunn’s hitting. Dunn has averaged about 30 batting runs above average per season on offense since 2008, which is obviously quite valuable. A closer look at the details reveals, however, a real shift. After posting a .394 wOBA in 2009, Dunn dropped back down to a .379 in 2010 (his lowest wOBA since 2006), which might be missed by simply looking his batting runs above average, which are adjusted to the lower 2010 run environment. Yes, offensive value has to be measured against the run environment in which is occurs, but in Dunn’s case, there are specific reasons why this seems to be happening which may indicate a change in his hitting abilities and/or style. Dunn’s impressive ISO, home run/flyball rates, and Hit Tracker data all indicate that his monstrous home run power remains intact. It is his other two true outcomes, walks and strikeouts, that grab the attention. Dunn’s 11.9% 2010 walk rate is still above average, but for him, it was significantly lower than any other season in his career (his overall career walk rate is 16.3%). Not coincidentally, 2010 also featured easily the lowest on-base percentage of Dunn’s career at .356. Again, that isn’t bad, but for a guy who has never hit .270, walks are a big chunk of his offensive value. One season has to be weighted against the rest, of course, but it is also true that walk rates generally stabilize more quickly than other rates. Moreover, while Dunn’s walks in the past have generally balanced out his strikeouts, his lower walk rate has not been accompanied by a lower K rate. On the contrary, he struck out at a higher rate in 2010 than in any other season of his career. Now, strikeouts are not the end of the world in themselves, but in this case it might indicate a change in Dunn’s approach. Indeed, the decline in plate discipline is well-illustrated by the fact that while Dunn’s strikeouts looking went down in 2010, his increase in swinging strikeouts (and thus overall strikeout rate) went up. Dunn (a generally patient hitter) swung at more pitches in 2010 than ever before. This was not, however, accompanied by an increase in contact, as his contact rate in 2010 was (wait for it…) the worst of his career (at least since 2002 when contact rates were tracked by the data sources for this site). So Dunn has been more aggressive about swinging the bat than in the past, a relative shift from his past “take and rake” style, but he hasn’t made more contact. It seems to have hurt him through his lower on-base percentage and thus wOBA. In some respects, it might have helped him in his time with the Nationals, as his .267 batting average in 2009 and .260 in 2010 were some of the highest of his career, aided by career high averages of .324 and .329 on balls in play during those seasons. The increased number of non-home run hits did somewhat offset the lower walk rate in 2010, in particular. This is where the issue of parks comes in. As has rightly been pointed out, Dunn’s new home park in Chicago should play right into his power game, as (according to the component factors at Stat Corner) the White Sox’ park boasts a 122 home run component factor for left-handed hitters as opposed to the Nationals’ 94. That should help Dunn. However, when looking at balls in play, note that Washington’s park also has more favorable park factors for left-handed hitters with regard to balls in play (singles, doubles, and triples), which may have factored into Dunn’s better BABIP performance during that time. Overall, Washington’s home park is slightly more favorable to left-handed batters than Chicago. This isn’t to say that Dunn’s still-heavily power-based game won’t be helped more overall by the move to the South Side, but there is reason to believe that his recent (relative) BABIP bonanza won’t continue. I should say again that this isn’t a specific projection. Adam Dunn is a good hitter who should help the White Sox contend in 2010. But there are a number of factors to consider other than simply how favorable his new home will be to his number of dingers (or “dongers,” in Carson Cistulli’s inimitable jargon), from his own recent lower walk rates and likely decline on balls in play due to the park to more general issues with shifting to DHing full-time in the American League. I don’t know what will happen, but it will be interesting to observe.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 5, 2011 -> 03:13 PM) If they plan on him being the backup CF we may as well just throw in the towel. Unfortunately that's probably Lilli. I can see where this doesn't work, especially if you're gonna try to keep both Morel and Viciedo on the 25 man. At this point, I'd rather just release Teahen than start the season with him.

I think they're planning on Teahen as the 4th OF

Duchscherer at $3m. I like that.

Is 2011 'make or break' for Ozzie? Hopefully.

I'd REALLY like to see them work the hell out of him (Viciedo) at 3B. Doesn't seem like an impossible position for a world-class athlete to learn to play adequately. Seems like he has a decent arm, and I'll take his lack of range if it means he won't make errors, especially with Alexei's plus range next to him.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Dec 27, 2010 -> 05:22 PM) And I don't think I'm overrating him being blocked at multiple spots at all. Smart GMs will milk that for as much as it's worth. Right. The solution to that is, of course, getting more than one needy GM into a bidding war. Don't know how good KW is at doing that.

http://thesportsbanter.blogspot.com/2010/1...stery-team.html

QUOTE (iamshack @ Dec 20, 2010 -> 12:29 AM) Yeah, ultimately, we'll just have to wait and see. I just don't personally like Escobar or Cain, for that matter. But I've been wrong many, many times before FWIW, I kind of view Odirizzi as the centerpiece in this trade.

QUOTE (3E8 @ Dec 19, 2010 -> 10:45 PM) Less foul territory means more balls end up in the stands. This lowers potential ABs (denominator of BABIP calculation) while at the same time gives hitter another chance at a hit (numerator of BABIP calculation) or a BB. Players are not positioned to try and make extra outs in foul ground for stadiums with more of it. Even if 'balls in play' went up at a higher rate than ABs, that wouldn't have any effect on how many of those 'balls in play' became hits. There would be just as many additional outs on balls in play as there were additional hits. The effect of fewer foul ball outs would be a larger sample size, not a change in ratio.

lol @ Greinke http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=833098 http://www.thedashow.com/mp3/da-greinke.mp3 Accidentally funny guy.

Yeah, Fuentes is going to want to be and be paid like a closer, too. I'm a big Breslow fan, that's a good idea.