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QUOTE (bbilek1 @ Jul 15, 2013 -> 12:00 AM) It's worth mentioning that Fangraphs LOVES him. I believe (correct me if I'm wrong) he registers very well with the advanced metrics. Very good ground ball rates throughout his career as well which is something a team playing in our park would like. He's always fared pretty well in the xFIP department on Fangraphs, and his sinker produces enough ground balls to give him a shot at the big leagues. With his peripherals against lefties this year, even if he doesn't pan out as a back of the rotation option, he should still be a solid LOOGY for a few years.

QUOTE (Bruce_Blixton @ Jul 14, 2013 -> 10:49 PM) I have to echo this sentiment, posters have been too hard on Hawkins this year and have unfairly scrutinized him. I really enjoy visiting Soxtalk and following the minor league action, this community is by far the most knowledgeable about the team's minor league system so I really value everyone's input in the game threads. I feel like I gain a very good understanding of the players within our system but also the system as a whole, the good with the bad. Unfortunately the current trend seems to be to keep a running count of Hawkins' strikeouts and mental errors and not in a constructive manner but a very sardonic, cynical tone. My question is, what's the point of being so cynical and pessimistic? What do you have to gain by scrutinizing a player's performance to the point of not allowing anyone else to have a shred of optimism for that player? Is it some type of Borchard hangover? This isn't a personal attack against any particular poster but rather a deeper, philosophical question on how to view the players in our minor league system. Also regarding Hawkins' troubles this season, can you imagine if you were a Royals fan right now? Bubba Starling, who at one point was compared to Mickey f***ing Mantle is barely hitting above the Mendoza line in the Sally league, so let's cut Hawkins a little slack for struggling. He still has the most talent and best physical tools in our system, let's give him a couple of years (or at least one full season in professional ball!) before we write him off. Sorry for the rant. When your major league team is a major disappointment, and your young phenom and supposedly your best prospect, by far, is having an historically bad season, it's hard to keep people's mouth shut. I think that outside of the Twitter thread, most of the sentiments here aren't really over the edge, or offensive, by any means, and most of them have been constructive. I see a lot of posters are suggesting demoting Hawkins to help him rediscover the basics, giving him extra time off, etc. Some folks are seemingly ready to write him off, but it happens. Personally, I am debating whether some folks are right to have him still best the number 1 prospect in the system, with Erik Johnson having the phenomenal season he's having. But that's just me. I think your post is a great post, it's always good to have optimism around. And that's what makes a fun debate between the pro Hawkins and the down on Hawkins.

QUOTE (bbilek1 @ Jul 14, 2013 -> 11:40 PM) I would like to see some views on Charlie Leesman. I feel like he was getting slotted somewhere between 10-15 on most prospect lists last year. I know he is 26 but the dude gets lefties out. Vs. LHB: 16.1 IP, 23 Ks and .127 batting average. Fastball only coming in around 90 but he seems to be of the crafty variety and I am sure a transition to a relief role could bump up his fastball a touch. Very deceptive with a lower arm angle. He's has success in several different seasons/levels and seems to be improving in his second straight year at Charlotte. K rate way up. He will definitely be up this season after the trade deadline, if not, as a September call up. I feel like he was a miss for the FS Mid Season top 25 list. I would put him over Santos Rodriguez. He was the 11th best prospect in our system according to Fangraphs last year. Scouting report says his stuff is that of a AAAA player, and he's been overachieving in the minors. We will see how he fares as a lefty out of then pen later this year.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Jul 14, 2013 -> 09:17 PM) Also, here is a real long article on the subject.... http://www.minorleagueball.com/2011/4/22/2...-league-k-rates The article proves nothing. It only draws to conclusion that sluggers (players with higher OPS according to study) tend to have a higher strikeout rate, which is perfectly understandable. This only proves Hawkins's approach is that of a slugger, which also isn't anything new. But the article does further reinforce that prospect success rate drops significantly once the prospect's minor league K% goes over 22%. And only 3% of the successful prospect (10 of them in total, since 1990), had a career MiLB K% of higher than 24%. Given Hawkins's K% is at 45% right now (the highest rate by a "successful" prospect being Branyan at 33%), this study definitely causes for greater concern. This is not saying Hawkins won't improve on his K% as he ages, but all signs aren't in his favor, and I definitely won't have him as a Top 3 prospect in our system right now. P.S. I wouldn't take this article seriously, there are several huge issues with the basis of the research.

Toby Thomas, 21st round pick this year, still only a 19 years old SS, is having quite a start to his pro ball career. 5 K's in 70 PA's is also very encouraging for this system.

That's why I am puzzled why some people still have Hawkins as the top prospect on the mid season list. Even if Erik Johnson isn't as good as advertised, he still should be a decent 4th/5th option, and he has the ceiling to be a number 2/3 starter if he pans out. If people are still putting Hawkins as the best prospect, that means they still expect him to hit .280 with around 30 HR and 100 RBI. I honestly can't even picture Hawkins putting up a .300 season in the minors from here on out. He's got a long long long way to go, and something's seriously wrong with his swing.

SO looking forward to Casper Wells making a cameo as a reliever tonight

QUOTE (knightni @ Jul 13, 2013 -> 01:33 PM) It might be easier to get Wong and Owens. Who's that?

QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 13, 2013 -> 01:09 PM) I agree. Wong, Martinez, and Wacha sounds like the majority of the return for Chris Sale, not Alexei/Thornton Martinez OR Wacha.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jul 13, 2013 -> 01:06 PM) I don't think that package brings you back one of those pitchers though. Depends on how desperate the Cardinals are, but I think it's pretty fair. Their current shortstop is awful, they have a surplus on major league ready pitching prospects, Kolton Wong is blocked by Carpenter, many people in the media have said we didn't get enough value for Thornton; Thornton is likely to fare better in the NL, and the Cardinals need more veteran and proven arms in the bullpen. So I don't think it's that far fetched.

QUOTE (Alpha Dog @ Jul 13, 2013 -> 12:45 PM) So far this is a typical Soxtalk thread regarding Sox player values. Our guys are all worth s*** until they get traded, and then its we never got enough. I think if we packaged Alexei and Thorton to the Cardinals for Kolten Wong and Martinez or Wacha, or along the lines, people would be ecstatic. I am don't have a problem with the value of the return, I just don't think it's the right type of player.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Jul 13, 2013 -> 03:29 AM) Claiming to know all of these prospects to bust is unreasonable. Two of them are in their first full year, one in his second, and the other two have had injury based setbacks. Sorry Paulstar - but your post was very biased in my opinion. At least we both agree the hope is for your sentiment to be off the mark. Cheers to that. I wouldn't call Walker a first full year player in the pros. Walkers has been in the system for long enough where we feel like we have a good enough read on him. Spin it all you want, but the facts are evident, their batting average keeps on dropping every time they get promoted. Out of our quartet and now Jacobs, they only have had one season with BA above .300, and the rest weren't even close. The fact is, we haven't any success with these type of prospects to be zeroing in on these players, namely spending 80% of the international pool on the Zapata signing and now the Jacobs trade.

I think a lot of people are missing the point. Some of us are not complaining about the value of the prospect we are getting in return. I could care less if it's Red Sox's 11th, 12th, or 13th best prospect, I just want someone who has good baseball skills and is a good bet of making the majors, even if they don't have the ceiling as high as Jacobs. Our minor leaguers that has the best chance of making the majors are Semien and Sanchez, guys who might be role players or average players, but have better baseball instinct and are more likely to make the majors. We don't have enough of those guys in the minors. Getting a Marco Scutaro type of player as prospect in return is a lot more ideal for us at this point. We already have enough lottery tickets, raw athletes in the system with Mitchell, Thompson, Walker, Hawkins, Zapata, I would even throw in Barnum, and now Jacobs. We will be lucky if even one of them will make it to the majors, and it would be at least several years away. I am afraid it's going to be a long rebuild that keeps on coming up short.

QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 13, 2013 -> 12:46 AM) His name is Lance Broadway That proved to be a failed approach for pitchers. Yet what's being undermined is the hitters from our farm that actually reached the majors were the likes of Sweeney, Getz, Morel, Beckham, and Phegley.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jul 13, 2013 -> 12:22 AM) Why would you want that? Are you aspiring to be Jerry Angelo? That's what he always said. Targeting low ceiling high floor guys doesn't win you the World Series. This trade was good. Matt Thornton is done. Thornton should have been traded 2 years imo. Because we are on the verge of trading away half of our team and there isn't a single hitter we can plug into our starting lineup this season or next season to fill the void, with the exception of Phegley. Some of us are hoping this is going to be a a short rebuild, but it ain't going to happen with these types of players we are targeting, we are always going to be a few years away. We have been on this lottery ticket approach for the past 3-4 years in terms of offensive talent, and nothing has paid off for us so far. And as much as I like this approach, we can't just have a system full of these guys. We need to target some some low ceiling high floor Marco Scutaro-esque players who will turn out to be solid role players

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jul 12, 2013 -> 11:51 PM) You mean like... Brandon Jacobs? Ha, fixed.

Is there anything such as a low ceiling high floor guy? If so, let's target that guy.

I do think Anderson is too high, but it could also be result of we don't have a clear cut number 2. I wouldn't put Hawkins any higher than Thompson and Anderson until he show signs of figuring things out. Thompson looked like he would be a favorite for number 2 until he recently 0-31 embarrassment. Anderson isn't ideal either as his defense is very iffy so far.

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Jul 11, 2013 -> 04:27 PM) What's funny is that if you look at the first 6-7 years in the league for Duncan (4 years of college) and Deng (one year), Duncan actually has more of a workload, and one year averaged 40.6 mpg, 1.4 minutes more than Deng's career high. It's like people forget Duncan is 37 and that's why the last few seasons his minutes have trailed off. Deng: Duncan: You can tell it was philosophy change. Starting from the 04-05 season, Duncan and Parker's top MPG was around 34 minutes per game, and Manu tops at around 30-31 a game, but usually under 30 per game. There are also notorious about sitting out their stars and throwing the game away. At that point Duncan was only 28, Parker 22, and Manu was 27. Granted, Pops never played Parker and Manu high minutes to begin with. So yes, over the past decade or so, the Spurs have been very careful in preserving their player's health. Thibs has been burned for playing his players too much, even in garbage time situation, while Pops has been fined for sitting his players, total opposite styles.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 11, 2013 -> 03:39 PM) I will just say that, for all the non-excitement that they create, the Spurs seem to be the team the Bulls are modeling themselves after. What they need to do is, rather than extending late 20s picks that you've developed who will come off the bench for 2-3 years before finally getting a chance to start, trade it for an asset that you need and value highly and plug it into your lineup. Imagining the Spurs right now with Kawhi Leonard is silly, and they got it because they traded a former 26th pick for him. The Bulls need to find creativity like that. Perhaps that player is Butler in a year or two. Perhaps it's Teague, maybe they can get something out of Gibson still. Maybe they don't. Except Thibs run his players out in the court till they bleed out. And Pops has become the most conservation coach in the game in managing player mileage. Most people wouldn't have a problem with resigning Deng to a fair contract if he's healthy and he can play for another 3-4 years at an all star level. But the fact that his wrist is still irritating him to the point he's shooting a career worst the past two years, and all the minutes he's played in the past three years will eventually add up. Deng wasn't even known as an iron man to begin with. Deng can still be valuable defensively, but he will slow down a lot sooner than later with all the workload, and he will not be a reliable offensive option with the way he's shooting the ball.

I still think Jimmy Butler is more of a natural 3. By not extending Deng, we will be able to shift Jimmy to the 3 and look for a natural scoring 2 that we really need to compliment this team. If we do not extend Deng and amnesty Boozer, then we would have a lot of rooms to play with, and we can really target some big name free agents or the plethora of great young RFA's in next year's class. By extending Deng, we are really saying a 30 year old Deng with all the mileage and nagging injuries is the best option in 2014, when it really isn't. And it will effectively close our windows to be free agent players in 2014, and the three years beyond that.

QUOTE (danman31 @ Jul 10, 2013 -> 11:22 PM) You nailed it though. He's refreshing. I wonder if people are overrating his performance based on the fact that no one else in the system resembles that. He's what we hope our top prospects to be doing right now. If Hawkins, Thompson, or Mitchell are performing like Semien is right now, everyone will be screaming for joy. It's a shame Semien doesn't have the tools of those other guys, because he certainly looks like he has the smarts and skills to be an impact player. We may have too much expectation for this guy, given he doesn't have one single great tool. But in a thin system like ours, where our top hitter prospects aren't hitting, those expectations are understandable.

QUOTE (danman31 @ Jul 10, 2013 -> 10:16 PM) That's it though. He's been fine. I'm not going to get excited about that. He's a refreshing prospect compared to the all or nothing, raw, athletic outfield prospects we currently have. Outside of his amazing walk rate, his strikeout rate has also improved a lot this year, to a point he's striking out once every 7 PA. He plays at a premium position, albeit not spectacular defense, but he is on pace to hit 15 HR and steal 20 bases while boasting an almost .400 OBP, as a 22 year old in Double A. If you add that together, that is pretty impressive. The gap between him and Sanchez is a lot closer in my books.

Personally, I wouldn't have Zewski over Rienzo and Castro right now. I like Trey, and I feel like got a steal in the 7th round for only $500,000, he was a third round talent who projects to be a good contact hitter. But it's not a sure bet that he reaches the majors, and we haven't seen enough of him to put him over prospects who will be in the majors this year. Castro looks like he can be a very good reliever in the majors, and Rienzo who is likely to make his major league debut this year, either as a reliever or as a back of rotation starter.

Bulls are reportedly looking to extend the contract of Deng between the value of the Smith and Iggy's deal. I don't want to bash them for the lack of creativity once again, I am just perplexed on their man crush on Deng. This franchise needs to learn to move on.