Dominikk85

I think the most fair thing would be combined 2019 and 2020 record. That way you do consider 2020 results but you are getting a decent sample size and the worst teams draft highest. For the sox that would of course be great as they were bad last year but projected to be better so with a combined record they could get like the 16th picks despite let's say their 2020 record giving them the 22nd pick (if they are that good hopefully).

I think Manfred is pretty much a puppet of the owners.

I think now would be a good time giving him an extension. Offer him an extension. Offer him 6 years at 70m with a 20mil team option for 2027 that automatically kicks in when he has met certain thresholds indicating health and performance. This sounds like a bad deal for him but he also has not earned much and only one good year already and he could get injured any time. That is a risk for the sox too but not crippling if it goes wrong (like 10m per year) and could give them a controlled ace for the entire window.

I think the focus on high upside pitchers was right. Of course you can never have enough depth but it is easier to buy a 2 war 4 starter than to buy a 4 war star pitcher. Imo the sox have reasonable depth at sp (could always be better of course) but they lack that second ace. When you look at the teams winning the last decade they often had more than one ace (giants had Lincecum, Cain and later bumgarner, astros had verlander and Cole, dodgers have Kershaw and buehler, Nats had all those aces...). There are also other examples like KC or Boston but having two aces is a big advantage and if giolito and one of crochet and kelley could form a 4+ war 1-2 punch that is a big advantage in the post season and takes load of the pen too.

Not bad but I wonder if the sox could have gotten abel at 11 and kelley at 47. Slot value at 11 was 4.5 and bonus pool was 7.7 so that would have left 3m for kelley if they got 3 100k guys. Would that have been enough? Cant really judge that.

Howard would be stupid to not sign because the 21 and 23 drafts are going to be loaded with 2020 HS kids who are not signing this year. Much tougher competition for him and too much downside compared to upside.

I like kelley, he is a top 20-25 talent but is it worth to completely punt 3 picks AND not get BPA at 11 to get him? Sure if both crochet and kelley both work out it was a good draft but let one get injured and that draft could quickly become very bad. I'm not saying it has to go wrong but basically sacrificing at 4 picks and 3 of them completely is a big price to get kelley. I would have wanted a top15 talent at your second pick (Howard or abel) to sacrifice that much. Don't get me wrong kelley is good but imo not good enough to basically punt the whole draft to get him, for that I would want an absolute elite talent.

I like Kelley and crochet is not bad either but are the sox even spending all of their bonus pool? Don't like they are punting so much. Sure Kelley will be over slot quite a bit but crochet is probably at least a mil under slot so they should be able to pay kelley and still get somewhat decent picks and not just unranked guys.

Yeah, he is famous since he was a kid because he won home run derbies at age 12 and also was hyped on social media. This video called him next Bryce harper. However mlb.com podcast said he is more famous than good, not that he is bad and he does have huge raw power but reportedly not a great feel to hit and some contact issues against better showcase pitching. Definitely has big potential but also could be a bust and might be defensively limited too.

Don't want to get too political but this is a dumb take by Dougherty, because this is a pressing issue to black people and they are the ones who can speak on this, definitely better than asking white guys about their second hand experience with it. Now you can debate whether you should ask that question to an 18 year old new pro but if you ask that question certainly a black player is the right guy to ask just like you would ask a gay person on gay rights or a women on women's rights.

Os gambled and lost it seems. They might be higher on kjerstadt but they can't have him at 2 with his strikeout to walk ratio (looks like a low obp slugger) and westburg is about neutral at his spot. This means they need to do a ton of damage on day two with their saved money.

The majority of good players are from warm weather states. There are occasionally good cold weather guys too of course but statistically much less often than from warm states.

The sox must give crochet at least a 30-40% chance to start to pick him there. If he is a closer that would be good too but as a ceiling that is not enough at 11 as there is also downside, Miller and hader were SP prospects at some point too.

Although longenhagen thinks it will be hassell

Probably veen to SD now

Kjerstadt to orioles. That could mean they are trying to get bitsko on a deal to their second pick.

It is not just first round 1Bs but 1Bs in general. Only one full time 1B was in the top30 in war last year (alonso). You could count muncy as a second one but he only played a third of his game at first. The bar to be a 5 war player as a 1b is super high, alonso hit 50 bombs and had 4.8 or so. If you are pujols or miggy that doesn't matter but few people are. But in the last years I think a few more high performance 1bs were drafted high, probably because they are seen as a pretty safe bet for 2-3 war if they are a 120 wrc+ guy.

Vaughn might be a slightly better hitter than tork but his is a bit undersized at 6 ft and his raw power is ok but not spectacular for a 1b (last year his top ev was 111 mph which would have ranked 100th+ in mlb last year). He still probably has the chance to hit 30+ Homers but he doesn't have the classic plus plus raw for a 1b but more above average power that plays up due to his good bat. That a 6 ft 1b with 55-60 raw is selected third overall shows how highly the industry rates his bat.

Nick gonzalez swing imo is fantastic, Short swing, good plane. It reminds me a bit of trout with the rapid deceleration of the turn and steep bat angle (bathed pointing down which is the modern style swing) Doesn't mean he will be great but the swing is really good.

Abel definitely would be risky pick, there are so many failed first round HS pitchers. However of course this is also how you get a kershaw, greinke or Bumgarner (I think they all were drafted like in the 7-10 range overall of the draft) so if it works it also could be really good.

Everyone wants BPA, the question is who that is.

Meyer would be great but there is really almost no chance he is around back then, his floor is probably 7 or 8 and more likely 5 or 6. If he falls to 11 he would be a no brainer over everyone left at this spot (assuming Tork, lacy, Martin, Gonzalez and veen are gone).

At 11 you are not getting the complete package anyway. With hitters you either have high ops college performers with position issues (burger, collins), polished hitters with limited upside or high potential hitters with swing, contact or chase issues. And with pitchers you either get good stuff with injury or command issues or polished pitchers with less upside. You have to pick one

Usually that comes with a velo bump. Shane bieber was like that, polished guy with great control and all of a sudden he threw 94 instead of 90 and became a star. Nola also increased his velo. I think you can only take detmers there if you believe he has more velo in the tank. If he could add 2-3 mph with stuff like weighted balls (not sure if sox pitching dev does driveline) he could be a different guy. But if he sticks at low 90s or even regresses a little which sometimes happens under the tougher pro schedule it could also just be a 5 or even long relief.

Honestly not a big fan of the hassel profile (advanced HS bat with good swing but RF profile but ok but not plus power). Sure that player could work but even an advanced HS bat is still more risky than a college bat and if you dont get the extra tools why take that risk? I mean if the bat takes a little step back there is not much left (see Mickey moniak who was exactly that type). Not saying there is no ceiling but the bat is the most volatile thing to project from HS guy and corner profile combined with ok but not special pop is not enough for me, I can get that safer from a college bat. I would prefer either a clear up the middle profile or potential plus power from a HS guy.