Dominikk85

I think this mostly means draft rankings are mostly set now by preseason rankings and a little bit by the small sample this year. The stats from this season mean very little but some information like health and velo gains or losses or power gains by hitters (trackman) are still out there. Teams can't really use era or ops data from this year but things like velo and max EV are telling even in a small sample.

Regarding nick Gonzalez he has performed extremely well but longenhagen said he played in a very weak conference and did look not so good against some of the better pitchers looking overwhelmed by high 80s fastballs. Wonder if that could mean he could fall. He definitely has the tools but maybe the hit tool isn't that advanced.

Probably reconsidered corona jokes after the gobert disaster:)

Considering the number of graduations the system is still decent. The only bad thing is that a lot of depth has evaporated due to prospects failing to develope or getting injured. In the last 2-3 years a ton of guys who were ranked close to top100 busted or regressed. Sox player dev and medical staff can be blamed for that. Fortunately they seem to be investing more in player dev and sabermetrics now but it is a little late now because there isn't as much high upside talent left to develope. They really would have needed that player dev a year or two ago, maybe then the system now would be deeper.

They didn't even do that well in the draft but their international scouting is off the charts.

Arenado does this too. If not timed correctly it could lead to issues but if you do it early enough it might help feeling a little more load on the back side. I likely wouldn't teach it but don't see it as a big issue

Let's wait till the summer, abreu is always bad in April when it is cold but when it gets warm he usually heats up too. Of course he is getting older and there is risk but even if he is bad his last year the sox have the financial flexibility to afford that plus they can get an extra year of service time out of vaughn if they keep him down till end of next April.

That would be a huge competetive advantage for the Rays and marlins since they are used to play in front of no fans. Sorry that pun was too easy:).

Top 5 Rounds definitely but Not top2. Really in round 2 a reliever or bench bat is a good result and teams thus liked college relievers for a while because of this but then they found out college relievers do bust rather often so mlb reliever is like the absolute ceiling. Most really good relievers in mlb have been drafted as starters so in the first two rounds I might take a guy with reliever risk (even then only if you don't pick top15) but you still want to have starter upside. Now 4th or 5th round is a different story but first two rounds you want a guy who at least has like a 40% chance to start.

If the sox are in contention at the deadline I could see a trade for a high level reliever. The sox pen isn't terrible but certainly lacks doninant back end guys, cishek is a decent addition but he seems to be a bit in decline too. Not saying cishek and colome are bad, they can be decent but it would help to have that closer who strikes out 30+% of his batters faced and a deadline trade ideally for a guy with 2 plus years of control could adress that. Apart from Vaughn, kopech and madrigal almost all prospects of the sox could be available for such a trade or maybe even collins.

Yeah, he is usually quite bad in spring training and also first month of mlb season (like abreu too) but gets much better in the summer.

There are fat good mlb Players and some even had a long career (many declined early though) but the majority of mlb players is not fat especially if you look at non 1b/dh guys.

Should the sox draft college to fit the 2020-2026 window timeline better? Or not worry about this and juat get the guy they like most?

60fv? You are talking 60 fv upside if they perform a couple years, right? Right out of the draft fangraphs never had more then 2 60s and 11 was never better than a 50 except for 2016 which was very deep. A 60 upside guy would be great too of course.

I think vaughn has a bit less power than killebrew but could be a better hitter. Killebrew is just a career 256 hitter (i.e 50 grade bat) while fangraphs has rated vaughn as a 65 grade bat (.290). Killebrew had several mid 40s homer seasons and I expect vaughn to be more a low to mid 30s guy maybe with a 40 as an exception.

The Trade itself was great for the red sox. The extension might turn out bad but the 3 years they traded for were lights out, he was worth 17.4 war those 3 years. Still a good trade for the sox even though moncada took longer than expected.

I would guess 320/410/570 or so

I think Vaughn could play well in the majors right now, he basically is a a finished product. However since the sox have a logjam at 1b/dh with EE, abreu, Collins and maybe even Mercedes if he makes the roster Vaughn probably will be parked in the minors a little. I still think he will be up in fall, AA pitching is just not a match for him and he isn't learning much there.

But only if you get the good genes, otherwise you might get Nick's power and mercedes speed:)

The Problem is whether you believe Mercedes can play catcher (even as a backup) or any other position than DH. Mercedes is likely a better hitter than some guys on the sox roster but is his bat good enough to play at DH when they already have EE, abreu, Collins and probably vaughn in the summer to fall? Even with 26 men you might not want to carry a second or third DH. I do think mercdes could post like a 100-105 wRC+ which is better than several guys on the roster but for a DH that is pretty meh.

Probably laziness by the writers who weren't willing to dig in deeper into the non top10 guys and just listed some guys from last year's list to full the back parts of the list.

Madrigal also has some mechanical reserves in his swing. He has very little load in his swing for example. Most mlb hitters coil the hips and shoulders in a couple degrees as they stride but nick basically just lifts his knee and goes straight forward. This is part of his contact ability probably as the swing is very direct and quick and a big coiling up can cost you some contact but a little bit of coiling up could give him a bit more batspeed and pop.

The power is a concern but yolmer has a 13% k-bb rate and madrigal had a -6% k-bb rate. He won't walk 9% but if he strikes out 7% and walks 6% in the majors which I think is realistic that is still a huge difference to yolmer and hamiltom who strike out a lot more. K-bb rate makes a big difference. Still power is important but he only needs a 300 babip to hit 300 while yolmer needs a 340 babip to hit 300. I also think he can add some strength and become a 10-12 hr guy or so and then he is like a 110 wrc+ guy but even if he is a 4 homer guy he still is like a 90 wrc+ guy I think.

Pop up rate, line drive rate and exit velocity plays a role too. And also running speed a little.

Overall career, can't predict the rest