Dominikk85

Vlad and Franco also got 70 fv grades. Fangraphs is a bit stingier with 70s and grades in general but I like that about them. Sure fans prefer hype but it is good they are a bit more critical even if they are a bit low on some (for example 65 on acuna). Robert could be a 70 but that 20% k-bb% is a certain risk. He still will be good due to defense and power but is he a 70 when he has a 310 opb or so? Of course robert could tighten up that plate skill a little too and then he is super good but there is at least some risk. I think the 55 is too low though but 70 imo is a bit high.

70 individual tool grades or overall fv grade? Fangraphs has given 70 fv grades but it is rare of course.

Yeah definitely but I would wait for him to do that to rank him there. Regarding evan white I'm not really a fan. Yeah he can play the OF but he is also almost 24 and an 840 ops at AA is not that inspiring by a 23 first baseman.

Part of the reason why vaughn is so high is his floor. Yeah other guys have a higher ceiling but the likelihood that vaughn fails completely is very low. At the very least he hits .270 with 25 bombs and is an 1.5 war player with a good chance he hits .290 with 30 bombs and is a 3 war player. If you compare that to let's say bobby witt he could be a 5 war guy but also could bust in the minors. That risk has to be priced in. Even bellinger was a lot higher risk his first seasons than vaughn, vaughn had a 16% K rate while cody was like twice that initially. There was a lot of development involved in him getting this good while part of the appeal of vaughn is he doesn't need much developement and can't be messed up by the sox.

I'm not holding it against him but before I rank a college first baseman top20 overall I would want to see a little more. I probably wouldn't rank a 1b below AA ball top30 overall unless he is either a young plus athlete (bellinger) or he flat out kills the ball.

I don't quite get why mlb is so high on vaughn. Vaughn is a good prospect but his mlb.com ranking must be mostly on his prospect pedigree. His first pro year was good but with an 832 ops not outstanding. That is ok for his first year but when I rank a right handed college 1b top20 ish overall I want to either see him absolutely destroy lower minors (1000+ ops) or ideally perform at upper majors. If he rakes in AA next year I can justify a top20 ranking but for a lower minor only college guy imo the rank is a bit aggresive. This is nothing against him as a prospect, he has the potential to be a plus first baseman in the majors, just saying I have not seen enough to rank him top30 yet.

I think 74 is about accurate if it includes pitchers. Just position players he is top50 of course. Thomas is 54th in position player fWAR and 80th including pitchers.

Steamer: Polanco 109 Arraez 109 Cruz 134 JD 137 Kepler 117 Sano 121 Garver 108 Rosario 110 Buxton 101 They definitely have a monster lineup, probably the best or second best in the AL. That rotation is very thin though and has injury risk too. The sox lineup is weaker than that but could be pretty good too and the sox rotation is much better. Won't be easy but the sox have a real shot to win the division.

I dont think so, the ban is specifically for 2020

Hinch is already suspended, his firing doesn't lift that ban. He can't manage avain before 2021.

Btw most catching coaches are saying framing is not so much about tricking the ump but about giving the ump a better look. It is not so much that good framers get strikes but that bad framers lose strikes by distracting the ump with too much move glove movement and other stuff.

Yes. And also the command itself of a pitcher. Catchers are taught to catch a ball out to in. This means for a low pitch at the knees you set up 2-3 inches below the knees and then move the glove slightly up to catch it. This only works if the pitcher has good command though because otherwise you have to move your glove too much. Everytime you have to move your glove away from the heart of the zone it likely won't be a strike. You see that with hs catchers, they will set up glove in the middle of the zone, stab down to catch it and then pull it into the zone again and this doesn't work. Follow jerry weinstein on twitter if you want to learn about this. He is already like 70 years old but still one of the top player development guys in the game willing to learn the knewest tech stuff and probably the most respected catching development guy in the world.

To understand framing you have to first understand that there are no balls and strikes and there is no strike zone. Tom tango has described that pretty well. There is a zone he called heart zone which most of the time is called a strike. And there is a waste zone which almost never is called a strike. And then there is a zone called shadow zone in which the chance for a strike call is about 50 50. The strike zone doesn't have a distinct edge, it is a human construct that doesn't physically exist and this means the inches around this imagined edge are very hard to tell for the ump as the ball is travelling extremely fast. A good framer doesn't turn balls into strikes, what he does is getting more calls in the shadow zone by using better technique. You have to keep in mind that at 90 mph this is incredibly hard to tell. Due to how the eye works both the umpire and the batter will lose track of the ball the last 8-10 feet or so of ball flight and only see a blur that the brain extrapolates. This means he will use other tells to make the call and the catcher can be part of it, for example by holding the glove more quiet or by catching it out to in. Blatant pulling back of strikes will have a different effect though and usually not work. So the difference is not stealing strikes that are way outside but maybe more like getting 55% of the calls in the shadow zone vs 45%. Over a whole game this will mean quite a few more calls.

I like it as a low risk signing with upside but I would still prefer to get another good pen arm. Cishek could be good but last year he was quite lucky (2.95 era, 4.5 fip) and the arrows seem to be pointin down a bit. Steamer projects him for a 4.7 era and 0 war, I think he will be better than that but still he is more likely a high 3s era guy. That still helps the pen but I would like to get another back end arm, sign or trade.

I think they are in a good position to draft a HS pitcher but I would only take a hs pitcher at a discount due to the risk. If the hs pitcher is the 10th best talent I don't take him but if he is considered like the 4th best talent but fell due to risk management of other teams they could take him there.

The 2020s definitely should be better, I hope for at least 5-6 times in the playoffs and a WS win.

Driveline has ranked the sox player development dead last in mlb 2012-2019 https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2019/04/finding-star-nothing-luck-quantifying-effectiveness-mlb-player-development/

At this time Cameron's skills weren't as valued as today. He hit for decent power but his strengths were defense and ability to take a walk, not things many cared about at this time. If he had played 10 years later people would have appreciated him more.

Btw a lot of the war is sale but that is pretty normal. I heard in a podcast that trout produced more war in the decade than like half of the farm systems.

That is somewhat true but still almost all full time mlb players are between 260 and 340. Within that range skill is involved but if it is like 220 or 380 it is mostly likely going to regress into that 260 to 340 range.

This stat exists already and is called BA on contact. Babip is not supposed to measure batter quality but the effect of fielding skill and luck thus homers are excluded. Of course with some homers luck and fielding skill plays a role, but babip just assumes this is not true to make it easier

.338 is actually a really high babip. Only 21 out of 127 players with at least 2000 career PAs have a higher career babip and only one is above 350 (yelich). Things that help babip are generally low pop ups, high EV, low pull rate and low launch angle and moncada checks some of those marks but still above 350 is extremely hard to maintain. I could see him being a consistent 340 guy though. The question is if he wants that though because those babip indicators also supress power some. If moncada wants to tap into more power he might want to increase his launch angle and pull rate some which helps power but hurts babip. So moncada can basically decide if he wants to be a high 20s homer guy with a .345 babip or a 40 hr guy with a .310 babip. Both plays, 285 with 28 homers is nice but so is .260 with 40 homers.

Burger was considered one of the best hitters of the draft, he hit .328/.443/ 648 with 22 homers his last year. The injuries were totally not foreseeable, and he was expected to be a quick moving high floor guy. The knock against him was that many didn't see him staying at third long with his body type. Regarding lux he wouldn't be what he is with the sox. The dodgers have a top player development and totally revamped his swing to improve his power. Not saying the sox would have ruined him but he probably would be more a decent hitter with like 10 HR power than a guy who projects for 20+ bombs.

I think the twins have less talent, especially in the rotation. They have a really good player development though, they get their players to maximize their talent by optimizing launch angle and stuff like that and thus hit tons of homers. They definitely need another starter though, if not two.

I think the twins will seriously regress. White sox are probably a mid to high 80s win team but the twins and indians might not be much better. The AL central is probably the easiest to win division in baseball next year and white sox have a shot at doing this. I think all 3 teams have a similar shot of winning it unless cleveland dismantles the team more. So sox have about a 1 in 3 shot of winning the division. They need to do that though because I'm sure the wildcard will come from another division again, most likely the al east. There is a realistic chance the sox win the division, depending on run differential luck and development of young players anything between 80 and 95 wins could happen with about 87 or so being most likely.