Dominikk85

.338 is actually a really high babip. Only 21 out of 127 players with at least 2000 career PAs have a higher career babip and only one is above 350 (yelich). Things that help babip are generally low pop ups, high EV, low pull rate and low launch angle and moncada checks some of those marks but still above 350 is extremely hard to maintain. I could see him being a consistent 340 guy though. The question is if he wants that though because those babip indicators also supress power some. If moncada wants to tap into more power he might want to increase his launch angle and pull rate some which helps power but hurts babip. So moncada can basically decide if he wants to be a high 20s homer guy with a .345 babip or a 40 hr guy with a .310 babip. Both plays, 285 with 28 homers is nice but so is .260 with 40 homers.

Burger was considered one of the best hitters of the draft, he hit .328/.443/ 648 with 22 homers his last year. The injuries were totally not foreseeable, and he was expected to be a quick moving high floor guy. The knock against him was that many didn't see him staying at third long with his body type. Regarding lux he wouldn't be what he is with the sox. The dodgers have a top player development and totally revamped his swing to improve his power. Not saying the sox would have ruined him but he probably would be more a decent hitter with like 10 HR power than a guy who projects for 20+ bombs.

I think the twins have less talent, especially in the rotation. They have a really good player development though, they get their players to maximize their talent by optimizing launch angle and stuff like that and thus hit tons of homers. They definitely need another starter though, if not two.

I think the twins will seriously regress. White sox are probably a mid to high 80s win team but the twins and indians might not be much better. The AL central is probably the easiest to win division in baseball next year and white sox have a shot at doing this. I think all 3 teams have a similar shot of winning it unless cleveland dismantles the team more. So sox have about a 1 in 3 shot of winning the division. They need to do that though because I'm sure the wildcard will come from another division again, most likely the al east. There is a realistic chance the sox win the division, depending on run differential luck and development of young players anything between 80 and 95 wins could happen with about 87 or so being most likely.

Well it costs nothing to keep him in the minors (except a few thousand bucks per year) so I doubt they just release him. But if he doesn't get healthy at all this year his career might be over.

I would like a top reliever. The pen isn't terrible (last year they were 8th in pen WAR in the AL, so about average) but adding another 1.5-2 war too this pen would turn an average AL pen into a top5 pen. Question is how you do it. Maybe a trade? Or sign two 1 war guys?

I think they should start him at AAA and if there is a good trade you do it but no need to give him away, a cheap hitter in the system never hurts. If you could get a good reliever with 3 years of control for example I would do it. Or a good (50fv) lower level middle infield prospect. But no need to trade him for a lottery ticket type of young prospect or a crap major leaguer.

That is nice. If you add 2 war for the bench that is almost 25 WAR which would have ranked them 6th in the AL. There is also upside for more as only abreu and EE are older guys.

They definitely have been trying to do that and bringing more modern guys but they haven't been as effective in implementing it and sometimes old school coaches would not listen to the modern guys and instead just continue to do like they always did.

Because eventually mlb might remove the home plate ump completely, which means lost jobs for the umpire union.

Update with projections: Giolito 3.2 Keuchel 2.7 Cease 2.2 Kopech 1.4 Gio 1.3 This also means you probably get positive war from your 6th and 7th starter plus you have some upside if rodon comes back but you don't really need him. Basically rodon and reylo are just wild cards at this point, but of course an injury can always happen and you can put some guys in the pen.

This will happen eventually but not that quickly. Many players in the independent atlantic league which tested the system for mlb didn't like the system and thought it was erratic. I think it will take 2-3 more years before all kinks are ironed out and probably till the next cba until it gets established. Until then grandals contract is probably over.

As a 5 starter he is ok (projected for 1.5 war).

I think keuchel or ryu would be the best choice

The while pitching analytics industry needs to find answers for health. After adding velo and pitch design this will be the next big break through. The team who significantly improves pitcher health and reduces attrition rate of pitching prosects will have a huge advantage especially now that developing hitters has become better due to all the data and launch angle stuff and thus many teams develope hitters and buy pitchers like Epstein started in Boston and Chicago.

Driveline definitely has success adding velo to pitchers. Only negative thing you could say that except for bauer there hasn't really been a durable starter who regularly goes 180+ip, most of the guys there have been more reliever types. This doesn't have to be a knock against driveline, there could be a negative selection in that top tier starters don't need to take an extra risk and do that stuff because they are already good and high paid while for some lesser pitchers driveline is the last straw to stay or become relevant. For hitters it is the same. The top hitters usually don't do swing changes, the guys who do swing changes at 23+ years of age are guys who are on the way out like JDM or donaldson back then, while a 21 yo top prospect who rakes usually wouldn't change his swing. This makes sense, if you are a hitting coach and you change vlad jr and he becomes worse you get fired so you leave him alone and let him hit. Sometimes thus also the best hitters and pitchers aren't great pitching or hitting coaches because it came naturally to them without them fully understanding it.

He is pretty boring. He does have a tendency to outperform his fip so some of his contact management skill is probably real but still he is walking a fine line. As a 5 starter he is pretty solid but I would definitely prefer one of ryu or keuchel.

Streamer Starters Giolito 3.2 Reylo 1.8 Kopech 1.4 Cease 2.2 Rodon 0 war Not Sure why they say zero on rodon but lets assume 2 by either rodon or a guy they buy. That would come around 10 war. If we assume another two from the 6th+ guy and 3.5 from the pen that would be around 15 war. That would be about 3 better than last year and 8th in the AL. That wouldn't be enough to make the post season so I think they need to get both a good starter and a back end reliever.

Price has negative trade value, if anything the red Sox need to add a prospect or young player (benintendi was suggested by some) and will only get a marginal prospect (40 fv or so) back.

The biggest point of argument is the contraction of the minors. Mlb wants less leagues and players to save money and spend player dev resources better. Milb doesn't want that of course but in the end they will need to accept the contraction because they don't have much bargaining power here.

Thanks. Didn't want to show you up or anything and projections aren't perfect but usually they are more predictive than last years numbers (and also more predictive than early season stats). The offense doesn't look bad and it has upside albeit there is also some downside. Some players will improve and hopefully most of the breakouts will stick albeit one shouldn't make the mistake to assume all positive from last year to remain and all bad to improve (which you didn't do of course)

Well at some point probably Vaughn will be up either at first or DH so dh and 1b would be pretty solid with Vaughn and abreu if Vaughn doesn't struggle and abreu doesn't decline.

Wouldn't it be more accurate to use steamer for all players? C grandal 4.7 1b abreu 1.8 2b madrigal 1.7 SS anderson 2.0 3b moncada 3.8 Lf Jimenez 2.5 Cf robert 2.3 Rf mazara 1.4 Dh mccann 0.2 That would be 20.4 war Mccann will be worth less at dh but if vaughn comes up in june he could be worth 1.5 war the rest of the way. So that could be about 22 war which is still pretty good especially if you get another 2-3 war from the bench which would come out at 25 then. 25 war would have ranked 6th in the al last year behind the red sox and ahead of the rays.

I wonder why milb is independent at all? Why isn't mlb running that thing completely?

Just sign hurt, gone and retired.