Dominikk85

I think that can be a fun little game we can dig out in 10 years in case this forum or the world still exists then. My guesses: Giolito: 30 Moncada: 50 Robert: 60 Vaughn: 30 Madrigal: 25 Anderson: 30 Kopech:20

Does anyone know if madrigal tried to add a couple pounds this off season? He doesn't have the frame to carry that much extra weight well but 10-15 pounds more than last season would probably help him.

Not every top100 is created equal. That is the beauty of the FV system. 10 years ago anyone hoped any top100 must become a star but now we can differentiate that better. For a top15 prospect (60 fv) 17 career war is a disappointment but for a 70-100 ranked guy 17 war is a decent result. Basically you expect a 50 fv to average 2 war in his prime years (with sone fluctuation of course) while you expect a top15 prospect to be a star and average like 4 war in their prime.

Everyone is important and anything can happen and the floor for any Pitcher is TJ and season end but IMO the biggest thing is giolito repeating. He has tremendous upside but don't forget that he was the worst starter in baseball in 2018 so there is some risk for regression. If he proves that the changes he made stick and he is a 5+ WAR ace (or at least 4) that would be huge for the sox. They also need Keuchel to be good but really with him 190 innings with a 4 era would be fine with that offense. A lopez breakout would be a nice bonus that could make them a division winner but giolito is really a key who alone could make the difference between post season and no post season.

I Think he definitely is a very good hitter but I don't think he has huge power. His max EV according to fangraphs last year was 111 which is ok but not outstanding (ranked about 110th in mlb last year). I still think he can hit 30+ bombs due to his bat control but he is not the classic 80 raw 1b like pete alonso or joey gallo.

Btw telling a bad pitch recognition thing to be more patient is the worst thing you can do, bad pitch recognition guys need to swing more to get the zone swing minus outside zone swing gap as large as possible. If you tell a bad eye hitter to be patient he will take just as many meatballs as balls. The cubs tried that with baez and it failed and he got better when he decided to swing more. Of course good plate disciple is better but only if actual pitch recognition gets better.

Walks are not really an approach thing and it actually is good not trying to walk. In the 2000s many teams tried to teach patience and going deep into the count and it failed. Now we know walks have nothing to do with patience. No player above little league tries to chase balls and even many little league coaches tell their kids to wait for a fat one with less than two strikes, this is nothing advanced. It is all about pitch recognition, a player has to decide about halfway home to swing so it is about extrapolating the pitch flight. TA doesn't not walk because of his approach but because but because he is bad at extrapolating pitch flight. It absolutely makes no sense to change his approach, he knows it is better to hit fat pitches. What you would need to do is change his pitch recognition. There are electronic systems for this (pitch is shown on a screen and blacks out halfway home and then you need to say pitch type and ball or strike ) but this is in an infant stage and success of it is still unclear. Can't hurt to try it though.

Where are those numbers from?

How is that true? Injury issue: Burger never had injury issues in college,you can't blame the sox at all for not knowing Offensive performance: Burger hit 325+ every year of his college career. His final year he hit 328 with 22 homers and more walks than Ks, bottom line was a 1100 ops. He clearly was considered one of the best and most advanced college hitters. Evan white and pavin smith were highly drafted 1b men that year and burger hit better than them in college. Position and defense: This one is a legit concern. However his bat would have projected to play at first too, maybe not at a star level but at an average regular level. You can blame the sox for drafting so many defensively limited guys (basically 3 1b/DH guys in a row with burger, collins and Vaughn) but you absolutely can't blame the sox for not predicting his injuries and there was nothing wrong with his projection as a hitter either.

Definitely a good thing they are catching up albeit 2 years earlier when the system was at it's highest point would have been better of course. But better late than never.

I would take his steamer projection (.279/.328/.519 with 33 homers) albeit I think he could hit a few more bombs.

Yankees are way to low at 9 too. Imo they are only behind the astros and dodgers. Twins are too low to and sox should be top10.

I have no problem with a woman there but I think the double role with the mets is problematic as she is biased there. If she was just an advisor it might be ok, but as I understand she works there more like in a full time capacity.

Also senzel is extremely injury prone. Guy can never stay healthy and that might limit his value.

Sox definitely have a good chance. Twins have a monster line up but sox lineup is pretty good too and rotation should be better. There is uncertainty in the sox rotation but even more in the twins rotation

70 is better than all star. Fg has a 65 as an all star, 70 is a guy Who averages 5 war in their Prime. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-scale/ There are many guys who can get to 5 war but AVERAGING 5 war over 4-5 years is quite rare. To be a true 70 you need to have at least like 22 war in 5 years (a bad year is ok but most years must be 5 or close on average).

Vlad and Franco also got 70 fv grades. Fangraphs is a bit stingier with 70s and grades in general but I like that about them. Sure fans prefer hype but it is good they are a bit more critical even if they are a bit low on some (for example 65 on acuna). Robert could be a 70 but that 20% k-bb% is a certain risk. He still will be good due to defense and power but is he a 70 when he has a 310 opb or so? Of course robert could tighten up that plate skill a little too and then he is super good but there is at least some risk. I think the 55 is too low though but 70 imo is a bit high.

70 individual tool grades or overall fv grade? Fangraphs has given 70 fv grades but it is rare of course.

Yeah definitely but I would wait for him to do that to rank him there. Regarding evan white I'm not really a fan. Yeah he can play the OF but he is also almost 24 and an 840 ops at AA is not that inspiring by a 23 first baseman.

Part of the reason why vaughn is so high is his floor. Yeah other guys have a higher ceiling but the likelihood that vaughn fails completely is very low. At the very least he hits .270 with 25 bombs and is an 1.5 war player with a good chance he hits .290 with 30 bombs and is a 3 war player. If you compare that to let's say bobby witt he could be a 5 war guy but also could bust in the minors. That risk has to be priced in. Even bellinger was a lot higher risk his first seasons than vaughn, vaughn had a 16% K rate while cody was like twice that initially. There was a lot of development involved in him getting this good while part of the appeal of vaughn is he doesn't need much developement and can't be messed up by the sox.

I'm not holding it against him but before I rank a college first baseman top20 overall I would want to see a little more. I probably wouldn't rank a 1b below AA ball top30 overall unless he is either a young plus athlete (bellinger) or he flat out kills the ball.

I don't quite get why mlb is so high on vaughn. Vaughn is a good prospect but his mlb.com ranking must be mostly on his prospect pedigree. His first pro year was good but with an 832 ops not outstanding. That is ok for his first year but when I rank a right handed college 1b top20 ish overall I want to either see him absolutely destroy lower minors (1000+ ops) or ideally perform at upper majors. If he rakes in AA next year I can justify a top20 ranking but for a lower minor only college guy imo the rank is a bit aggresive. This is nothing against him as a prospect, he has the potential to be a plus first baseman in the majors, just saying I have not seen enough to rank him top30 yet.

I think 74 is about accurate if it includes pitchers. Just position players he is top50 of course. Thomas is 54th in position player fWAR and 80th including pitchers.

Steamer: Polanco 109 Arraez 109 Cruz 134 JD 137 Kepler 117 Sano 121 Garver 108 Rosario 110 Buxton 101 They definitely have a monster lineup, probably the best or second best in the AL. That rotation is very thin though and has injury risk too. The sox lineup is weaker than that but could be pretty good too and the sox rotation is much better. Won't be easy but the sox have a real shot to win the division.

I dont think so, the ban is specifically for 2020